交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.88%，环比增加.100个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为34.75%，环比减少0.25个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.5%，环比增加.939个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为72.22%，环比减少0.56个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为74.66%，环比减少1.62个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口 价格价格占优；当前需求或持续低迷。 1、基本面: 中性。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-552元/吨，亏损环比增加9.50%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为-695 元/吨，亏损环比增加0.20%，低于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamental analysis shows a short - term bearish outlook for asphalt due to high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. However, high - level crude oil prices provide some support. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3592 - 3654 [8][10][15] - Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs, which provide some support. Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and increasing expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [8] - **Demand Side**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.0382%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; and the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 452.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1113.1829 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.54%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3592 - 3654 [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview, including data on various contracts such as 01 - 12 contracts, covering indicators such as futures closing prices, price changes, basis, weekly production, and weekly operating rates [18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **主力合约价差**: It presents the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the price differences between different contracts [25] - **沥青原油价格走势**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [27] - **原油裂解价差**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [30][31] - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the relative price relationships among these products [35] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [37] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **沥青利润**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025, showing the profitability of asphalt production [40] - **焦化沥青利润价差走势**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between different refining processes [44] - **Supply Side**: - **出货量**: It shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipments from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [46] - **稀释沥青港口库存**: It presents the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2025, which is related to the supply of raw materials [48] - **产量**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall supply capacity of asphalt [51] - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势**: It presents the historical trends of the price of Marruán crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, which is related to the supply of raw materials for asphalt production [56] - **地炼沥青产量**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt production from local refineries from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production capacity of local refineries [58] - **开工率**: It presents the historical trend of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 to 2025, reflecting the production activity of asphalt [61] - **检修损失量预估**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the supply reduction caused by refinery maintenance [63] - **Inventory**: - **交易所仓单**: It presents the historical trend of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the inventory situation in the futures market [66] - **社会库存和厂内库存**: It shows the historical trends of social and factory - level asphalt inventories from 2022 to 2025, reflecting the overall inventory situation [70] - **厂内库存存货比**: It presents the historical trend of the inventory - to - stock ratio in factories from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the inventory management of factories [73] - **进出口情况**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [76][79] - **Demand Side**: - **石油焦产量**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the related industries [82] - **表观消费量**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall market demand [85] - **下游需求**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, as well as the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers, reflecting the demand for asphalt in the downstream construction industry [88][92][94] - **沥青开工率**: - **重交沥青开工率**: It presents the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [97] - **按用途分沥青开工率**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activities of different types of asphalt [99] - **下游开工情况**: It presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [101][103] - **供需平衡表**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to July 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, social inventories, and factory inventories, which is helpful for analyzing the overall supply - demand situation of the asphalt market [106]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分煤矿有所复产，原料端供应逐渐改善。市场情绪有所提振，产地出货节奏加快，部分 下游企业及贸易商采购增多，煤矿订单增多出货良好，厂内库存压力减弱，线上竞拍也普遍出现明显上 涨，煤矿报价也多以小幅探涨为主；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价920，基差48.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：近期下游焦钢企业及贸易商对原料煤采购积极，对一些跌幅较大的性价比较好的煤种加快采 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1168元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1178元/吨，基差为-10元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 。 2、风险点：下游浮法和光伏玻璃冷修不及预期，宏观利好超预期。 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has increased recently, raising supply pressure, but it is expected to reduce next week. The overall demand recovery is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory continuously decreasing. Crude oil prices are rising, providing short - term cost support. The futures price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3558 - 3620 [8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 597,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.33%. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.0382%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 452.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,113.1829 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.54%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and short - term support is expected to strengthen [9]. - **Inventory**: On July 8, the social inventory was 1.318 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; the factory inventory was 748,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.03%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.43%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing [11]. - **Expected**: The futures price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3558 - 3620 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base - spread**: On July 8, the Shandong spot price was 3,825 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract base - spread was 236 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzed the price trends and spreads of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, including the price trends of asphalt and Brent oil, WTI oil, as well as the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [27][30][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Presented the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Analyzed the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [40][43]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: Included aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, and capacity utilization rate [46][51][61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - ratio [66][70][73]. - **Import - Export Analysis**: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trends of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: Covered aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][92]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provided the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt, including monthly production, import, export, and downstream demand [106].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 2、基差: 07月07日，山东现货价3820元/吨，09合约基差为254元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 社会库存为131.8万吨，环比减少2.08%，厂内库存为74.8万吨，环比增加4.03%，港口稀释沥 3、库存: 青库存为库存为16万吨，环比减少30.43%。社会库存持续去库，厂内库存持续累库，港口库存 持续去库。 偏多。 4、盘面: MA20向上，09合约期价收于MA20下方。 中性。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，多减。 偏多。 每日观点 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为77.44%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.4825万吨，环比减少0.25%,乙烯法企业产 量11.039万吨，环比减少2.73%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.88%，环比增加.100个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为34.75%，环比减少0.25个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.5%，环比增加.939个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.6.30-7.4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周纯碱期货低位震荡，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周下跌1.84%报1174元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1190元/吨，较前一周下跌2.70%。 供给方面，前期纯碱企业检修持续，下周个别企业恢复或计划检修，整体对于供应影响 不大，预计下周周度产量接近71万吨，开工率81%。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一般， 按需为主，存货意向不足。目前浮法消费相对稳定，光伏逐步下行，消费下降；周内，浮法 在产日熔量15.78万吨，环比增加1000吨，光伏日熔量9.20万吨，环比降3600吨。截止7月3 日，全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合 来看，纯碱供给高位 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为78.09%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.5695万吨，环比增加0.68%, 乙烯法企业产量11.349万吨，环比减少4.54%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减 少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.78%，环比减少1.53个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为35%，环比减少1.25个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.56%，环比减 少1.57个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1210元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1183元/吨，基差为17元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存180.95万吨，较前一周增加2.41%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给 ...