周一因中美达成削减关税协议，市场对美国经济衰退的担忧缓解，美元指数一度逼近 102，最终收涨 1.37%至 101.80。美债收益率双双走高，利 率市场削减美联储年内降息定价，提振美元需求。不过美元短线虽偏多，但面临关键阻力，且美国 CPI 数据将至，若通胀低于预期，多头或将 了结。当前美联储降息预期调降，鹰派空间有限，通胀火热还可能加剧滞胀担忧，利空美元。 黄金昨日跳空低开并延续跌势，最低触及3207后企稳反弹，美盘最高涨至3248后震荡整理，午夜弱势整理至 3220 后修复，最终收盘于 3234。 今日早间行情先小幅拉升，随后强势下跌至 3216，亚盘又强势上涨至 3260 后承压整理。目前行情处于修复阶段，晚间 CPI 数据备受关注。若 欧盘行情未延续上涨而是回落，多头或于 3270终结。技术面上方阻力在 3268 - 3274，下方支撑在 3244 - 3237。操作上徐老师建议回调做多为 主，反弹高空为辅。 操作策略1：建议回调3244-3237分批多，各止损8美金，止盈看15-20美金。 操作策略2：建议反弹3268-3274分批空，各止损8美金，止盈看20-40美金。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

追踪美联储议息会议的互换合约数据显示，市场预计到12月前累计降息幅度仅为56个基点，较上周的75 个基点大幅回落。虽然交易员仍普遍认为首次25个基点的降息将发生在9月，但对2025年整体降息幅度 的预期已明显收缩。受此影响，对货币政策敏感的两年期美债收益率周一飙升12个基点，重返4%关口 上方，纽约尾盘维持在该水平附近。 美债收益率攀升与降息预期降温形成共振，反映出随着关税下调对经济的提振作用显现，债券多头正在 加速离场。本周伊始风险资产大幅反弹，进一步削弱了美债的吸引力。 自美联储公布议息会议声明、主席鲍威尔表态将采取观望态度来评估关税将如何影响通胀和增长以来， 市场对联储降息路径的预期持续修正。过去一周，两年期美债收益率已从3.55%的低点攀升，五年期国 债收益率则从3.85%附近升至4.11%。 哥伦比亚Threadneedle Investment的利率策略师Ed Al-Hussainy表示："市场总是容易反应过度，当前资金 正在大规模转向风险资产。"该机构倾向做空短期债券，Al-Hussainy指出，只有当市场定价反映年内降 息不足两次时，两年期美债才会出现具有吸引力的低位。 智通财经APP获悉，随 ...

周一（5月12日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率上涨8.45个基点，报4.4630%，全天处于上涨状态， 整体交投于4.3981%-3.4669%区间。 两年期美债收益率涨10.47个基点，报3.9956%，日内交投区间为3.9077%-4.0166%，北京时间19:02刷新 日高。 ...

据第一财经报道，美债是支撑美国政府和经济的重要根基，其重要性已经显露。彼时，美国国债遭遇大幅抛售——不少 市场人士就预判，此次美股无法做到的事情，美债市场也许能做到，即美债收益率的大幅持续攀升会令特朗普政府在对 等关税政策上"眨眼"。市场人士强调，此次导致美债和美元指数下跌的原因更加结构性、系统性。 美国总统特朗普（资料图） 中辉期货资管部投资经理王维芒表示，尽管特朗普暂缓对部分国家加征关税，但政策的不确定性加剧了市场对美国经济 衰退和通胀反弹的预期，削弱了美债的避险属性。另外，对冲基金通过高杠杆做多美债现券、做空期货，依赖低波动率 环境套利。特朗普关税政策引发市场剧烈波动，波动率指数飙升至年内高点，导致基差交易爆仓，基金被迫抛售现券以 补充保证金。当前基差交易规模已达1万亿美元，平仓压力导致长债收益率飙升。与美债收益率关系密切的降息进程，近 期变数颇多。 近年来，美国政府对美联储政策的干预逐渐增强。特朗普在二次执政期间，已多次对美联储的决策表达不满并施加压 力，这使得外界对美联储能否独立、科学地制定货币政策产生了担忧。今年2月，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，宣称"掌 握重大行政权力的官员必须接受民选总统的监督" ...

金十数据5月8日讯，SignatureFD分析师Tony Welch表示，美联储会议后美债收益率下跌，可能表明投资 者担心紧缩的货币政策将对经济产生影响。目前经济正在放缓，在更长时间内实施较紧的货币政策肯定 会是一个不利因素。特朗普的关税正在影响美联储的想法，因为FOMC的声明"一开始"就提到了贸易。 鲍威尔将在新闻发布会上多次使用"不确定性"这个词。 分析师：货币政策从紧将拖累美国经济前景 ...

智通财经5月8日电，美联储发表声明后美债收益率小幅扩大跌幅，10年期美债收益率最新下跌3.7个基 点，报4.281%。 ...

期货热点追踪 降息预期"急刹车"！美债收益率走高，美联储今夜要"打脸"市场？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall decline in U.S. Treasury yields indicates a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion, with increased demand for safe assets, particularly in the context of recent economic concerns and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][6]. Treasury Yield Trends - As of May 6, all maturities of U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline, with the 2-year yield down by 4.75 basis points to 3.7827%, the 3-year yield down by 5.32 basis points to 3.7556%, the 5-year yield down by 4.19 basis points to 3.8957%, the 10-year yield down by 4.87 basis points to 4.2946%, and the 30-year yield down by 3.76 basis points to 4.797% [2]. 10-Year Treasury Auction Results - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $42 billion of 10-year notes on May 6, with a high yield of 4.342%, lower than the previous auction's 4.435%. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.60, slightly below the previous auction's 2.67 but above the recent six-auction average of 2.59, indicating a recovery in market demand [3]. Strong Market Demand - The allocation to direct bidders, representing domestic demand, was 19.9%, while indirect bidders, representing foreign demand, received 71.2%. Primary dealers received only 8.9%, highlighting strong market demand, particularly from overseas investors [4]. Easing of Market Sell-off Sentiment - The decline in Treasury yields and the recovery in market demand have partially alleviated recent market sell-off sentiments, which were driven by concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and anticipated tightening policies from the Federal Reserve [5]. Stability and Future Outlook of the Treasury Market - The overall decline in U.S. Treasury yields reflects a decrease in risk appetite among investors, with strong demand for safe assets. The auction results indicate robust market demand, especially from foreign investors, contributing to market stability. Future trends in the Treasury market will be influenced by economic data, Federal Reserve policies, and global market dynamics [6].

新华财经北京5月7日电美国国债收益率周二（5月6日）整体走低，美国财政部当天招标发行的10年期美 债需求从前期低位回升，部分修复了近期的市场抛售情绪。 截至6日尾盘，2年期美债收益率跌4.75个基点报3.7827%，3年期美债收益率跌5.32个基点报3.7556%，5 年期美债收益率跌4.19个基点报3.8957%，10年期美债收益率跌4.87个基点报4.2946%，30年期美债收益 率跌3.76个基点报4.797%。 美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福尔肯德认为，当天的10年期美债发行非常成功。他表示，"我们没有看到美 国国债市场出现任何问题，我们的拍卖继续表现强劲。美元一直是并将继续是世界储备货币。" 美国财政部6日发售420亿美元10年期国债，中标利率为4.342%，低于前次4月9日的4.435%；投标倍数 为2.60，低于前次的2.67，但高于最近六次拍卖的平均值2.59。衡量美国国内需求的直接竞标者的获配 比例为19.9%，衡量海外需求的间接竞标者获配比例为71.2%，一级交易商获配比例仅为8.9%，显示市 场需求强劲。 投标结果出炉后，10年期美债收益率收益率盘中跳水约2个基点。 财经金融博客Zerohe ...