预计还将达成几份协议。 预计谈判将在截止日期过后继续进行。 重申对美联储独立性的支持。 美国总统特朗普将决定未来一波贸易协议。 白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：预计美联储将认识到，降息无碍（是安全的）。 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：特朗普将决定未来的贸易协议。 ...

美国总统特朗普：今天我们在白宫忙于处理贸易协议，我将于今天下午会见韩国贸易代表团。韩国目前 的关税是25%，但他们有降低关税的提议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump has set a 10-day deadline for Russia to make progress towards a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening new sanctions if not met [1][2] Oil Price Movement - On July 29, light crude oil futures for September delivery rose by $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase, while Brent crude futures increased by $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% rise [1] - Following the overnight surge of over 3%, oil prices experienced a slight pullback during the Asian trading session on July 30 [1] Geopolitical Tensions - Trump's announcement of potential new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on Russian oil, has surprised analysts and could tighten Russia's supply to global markets [2][3] - The geopolitical tension is causing oil futures to attempt to break out of a consolidation phase [2] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Prior to Trump's comments, oil prices were already on the rise due to signs of inventory tightening and strong summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere [4] - The WTI crude oil futures price broke above the 200-day moving average of approximately $68.17 per barrel, leading to a technical buying surge [4] - Commodity trading advisors increased their bullish positions on WTI crude, with net long positions rising to 55% on July 29 from 18% short positions on July 28 [4] Trade Agreements and Their Impact - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has provided support for oil prices, alleviating concerns over a potential trade war [4] - Optimism exists around these trade agreements, which, while not perfect, are seen as better than the worst-case scenarios [4] Potential Impact of Sanctions on Major Buyers - The proposed "secondary tariffs" on countries purchasing Russian oil could significantly impact markets, particularly for China and India, the largest buyers of Russian oil [5] - The U.S. has warned China about potential massive tariffs if it continues to buy Russian oil, while India has indicated compliance with secondary sanctions [5] - The risk of Russia retaliating by cutting off major oil pipelines could further pressure oil prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has set a 10-day deadline for Russia to make progress towards a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening new sanctions if no progress is made [1][3] Oil Market Impact - Following Trump's announcement, light crude oil futures rose by $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase, while Brent crude increased by $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% rise [1] - Oil prices had already been on the rise due to signs of tightening inventories and strong demand during the summer season [6] - The geopolitical tensions and potential new sanctions could tighten Russia's oil supply to global markets, impacting prices further [3][4] Trade Agreements and Market Sentiment - Optimism in the market is supported by potential trade agreements between the U.S. and major partners like Mexico, Canada, and China, which could positively affect demand [4] - The U.S.-EU trade agreement has alleviated fears of a trade war, contributing to a more favorable market outlook [6] Secondary Sanctions and Global Buyers - The proposed "secondary tariffs" on countries purchasing Russian oil could significantly impact major buyers like China and India [7] - The U.S. has warned China about potential tariffs if it continues to buy Russian oil, while India has indicated compliance with secondary sanctions [7] - The risk of Russia retaliating by cutting off oil pipelines could further pressure oil prices [7]

美国财长贝森特：鼓励人们在8月1日前不要恐慌。预计8月份会很忙，贸易协议仍有待完成。 ...

③关注加拿大央行对美国与欧盟、美国与日本等国家签订的贸易协议的看法。 ④关注加拿大央行通胀、经济、就业、油价、汇率等的看法。 ①市场普遍预计加拿大央行将维持利率于2.75%不变。 ②关注加拿大央行对未来降息可能性的暗示。 注：北京时间21:45，加拿大央行将公布利率决议。 ...

Group 1 - The annualized GDP growth rate for the U.S. in the second quarter is reported at 3%, a significant recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, primarily driven by net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP [1] - Following the GDP report, spot gold prices fell below $3320 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index rose over 10 points, and the euro dropped below 1.15 against the dollar [2] - Economists express concerns about the underlying economic conditions, noting that the overall GDP change does not reflect the true state of the economy, as growth was heavily influenced by volatile factors such as inventory and trade [2] Group 2 - Economists predict weak economic growth in the second half of the year, despite recent trade agreements announced by the White House, as the actual tariff rates remain among the highest since the 1930s [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting, with indicators showing a cooling labor market and only slight economic growth in several districts [3] - The U.S. may have passed the worst phase of the trade war, with recent agreements potentially easing some tariff burdens, but a full economic recovery will take time due to the high tariff environment affecting consumer and business confidence [3]

Economic Performance - Eurozone's GDP growth in Q2 2025 shows a significant slowdown, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate dropping from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.1%, but still surpassing the market expectation of zero growth [1][2] - Year-on-year GDP growth for the Eurozone reached 1.4%, exceeding the anticipated 1.2% [1][2] Country-Specific Insights - Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% in Q2 2025, following a 0.3% growth in Q1, indicating a notable slowdown [8] - Italy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in Q2, contrary to expectations of slight growth, posing challenges for the government [8] - France's economy grew by 0.3% in Q2, driven mainly by inventory increases, despite weak domestic demand [8] - Spain outperformed expectations with a 0.7% growth in Q2 [9] Monetary Policy Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its key interest rate to 2% over the past 13 months to stimulate the economy, but the latest data suggests a reduced necessity for further easing [1][12] - Market expectations for another rate cut by the ECB before December are currently at 50% [1][12] Trade and Economic Environment - The trade environment remains a primary concern, particularly due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on European economies [5] - A new trade agreement with the U.S. has raised concerns among German and French leaders about potential negative impacts on the EU economy [5][12] - Germany plans to significantly increase budget spending for infrastructure and defense starting next year, which may mitigate the negative effects of tariffs [12]

Core Insights - Eurozone's economic growth in Q2 significantly slowed down but exceeded market expectations of zero growth, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate dropping from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.1% in Q2. Year-on-year growth reached 1.4%, higher than the anticipated 1.2% [1][5] - There is a notable divergence within the Eurozone, as Germany and Italy, the largest and third-largest economies respectively, fell into recession [1][8] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its key interest rate to 2% over the past 13 months to stimulate the economy, but recent data suggests that the economic foundation is better than feared, leading to a reduced necessity for further policy easing [1][12] Economic Performance - Eurozone's GDP for Q2 showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.1%, down from 0.6% in Q1, while the EU overall grew by 0.2%, lower than the previous quarter's 0.5% [4][5] - Year-on-year GDP growth for the Eurozone was 1.4%, slightly down from 1.5% in the previous quarter, while the EU's growth was 1.5%, down from 1.6% [4][5] - Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% in Q2, following a 0.3% growth in Q1, with declines in machinery and construction investments [8] - Italy's economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1%, contrary to expectations of slight growth, posing challenges for the government [8] Country-Specific Insights - France's economy grew by 0.3% in Q2, driven mainly by inventory increases, despite weak domestic demand [8] - Spain outperformed expectations with a growth of 0.7% in Q2 [9] - Ireland's economy experienced a contraction, while Lithuania and Austria recorded minimal growth of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [9] Market Expectations - The market currently sees only a 50% chance of the ECB lowering interest rates again before December, reflecting a shift in expectations due to resilient economic performance [12] - There are indications that higher tariffs from new trade agreements may negatively impact the Eurozone's annual growth rate by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points, but this has largely been factored into most forecasts [12]