之前美国总统特朗普22日宣布，美国与日本达成贸易协议，美方将对日本进口商品的关税税率由25%降 至15%。 一位期货分析师表示："8月1日的最后期限正在临近，但没人知道哪些铜产品会受到影响，这让人难以 预测铜价未来的走势。" 其他基本金属方面，三个月期铝下跌0.21%，报每吨2,645.5美元；三个月期锌上涨0.47%，报每吨 2,875.5美元；三个月期锡上涨0.41%，报每吨34,995美元；三个月期镍上涨0.21%，报每吨15,605美元； 三个月期铅上涨0.17%，报每吨2,035.5美元。 7月24日（周四），伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价周四小幅上涨，因对美国贸易谈判进展的乐观情绪升 温，不过美国铜进口关税的不确定性令交易商保持谨慎。 个月期铜上涨0.14%，最新报每吨9,944美元。 智利矿业部长和全球最大铜生产商--智利国营铜业公司(Codelco)董事长周三表示，他们尚未收到美国将 于8月1日征收50%铜关税的细节。美国大部分进口的精炼铜均来自智利。 据证券时报网报道，当地时间23日，美国总统特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征收15%至50%的 简单关税。特朗普还说，美国正在与欧盟进行认真谈 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The "Tariff 2.0" deadline on August 1 has prompted Trump to leverage recent political events in Japan to secure a US-Japan agreement[3] - The US aims to use the upcoming US-China talks in Sweden to pressure the EU, indicating a strategic approach to negotiations[3] - Trump's negotiation strategy has shifted to focus on smaller economies like Vietnam and Indonesia, ensuring tangible results to present to the public[4] Group 2: Key Agreements and Tariff Changes - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs on Japan from 25% to 15%, while Japan commits to invest $550 billion in the US[5] - The EU is in a disadvantageous position, facing pressure to reach an agreement similar to Japan's, which may include a 15% tariff on cars[7] - Current agreements with Southeast Asian countries involve tariffs exceeding 10%, with Vietnam facing a 20% tariff and a 40% re-export tariff[4][12] Group 3: Implications for US-China Relations - The upcoming US-China talks are critical, focusing on supply chain issues and potential commitments from China regarding rare earth supplies[9] - The likelihood of significant tariff reductions is low, with expectations that existing tariffs may remain or be slightly adjusted[8] - The US is showing signs of flexibility, indicating a need for a deal with China, which may include discussions beyond trade, such as geopolitical issues[9][10]

泰国将于周四与美方官员再举行会谈，该东南亚国家寻求在8月1日最后期限前降低特朗普政府威胁要对 其出口商品征收的36%关税。泰国财长披猜周四表示，泰方官员将"回应美方关切"。泰国正在努力争取 与邻国相比具有竞争力的关税税率。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. stock market saw a collective rise on the same day, with the Dow Jones up by 1.14%, Nasdaq up by 0.61%, and S&P 500 up by 0.78%, reflecting a positive market reaction to the news [1] Group 2 - The European Union is preparing for a potential breakdown in trade negotiations with the U.S., planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if talks fail [2] - The EU's countermeasures include merging previous tariffs on €210 billion worth of U.S. goods with a new list covering €720 billion, which will be submitted for approval by EU member states [2] - Key U.S. products affected by these potential tariffs include Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey, with tariffs set to match those threatened by the U.S. [2] Group 3 - The White House announced that Japan will increase its imports of U.S. rice by 75% and expand its import quotas significantly [3] - Japan is set to purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel [3] - A new agreement is being explored for Alaska's liquefied natural gas, and Japan has committed to purchasing U.S.-made commercial aircraft, including a deal for 100 Boeing planes [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend, with its performance strengthening compared to the previous period. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs was temporarily alleviated. The market was focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data was resilient, and the Fed's decision - making independence led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies were introduced to promote stable growth in key industrial sectors, and major infrastructure projects were launched, which drove the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability was average. The non - ferrous metals market showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. Future operations should be cautiously bullish in the short - term, but avoid over - chasing the rise [11][12]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties had different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper was expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue; zinc was in a state of increasing supply and weak demand, with an oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short - term and a bearish outlook in the medium - term; aluminum and its related products in the industry had different trends in cost, supply, and demand, and corresponding investment strategies were recommended [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded. Trade and tariff impacts were temporarily alleviated. The market focused on interest - rate cut expectations. China's policies promoted industrial growth, driving the non - ferrous metals sector. The sustainability of the upward trend was limited. Future operations should be short - term cautiously bullish, and attention should be paid to the resonance between supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [11][12]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis** - **Copper**: Social inventory decreased, supply was expected to decline, and demand was expected to increase. It was expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. The strategy was to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply increased, demand was weak, but it was oscillatory and strengthening in the short - term. Support was at 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, resistance was at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton. Short - term long positions were recommended, and short positions were considered in the medium - term [4][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: In the aluminum industry chain, different products had different trends in cost, supply, and demand. For example, for aluminum, 09 contract had resistance at 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton and support at 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton; for alumina, 09 contract had resistance at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton and support at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. Strategies such as reducing long positions and buying out - of - the - money put options were recommended [5][16]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. It was recommended to wait and see, reduce long positions, with resistance at 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton and support at 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money put options was considered [6]. - **Lead**: It followed the sector to rebound and then consolidated. Supply was expected to increase, and demand needed to be further restored. Support was at 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, resistance was at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. Selling out - of - the - money put options on dips was recommended [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel had an overall oversupply situation, with short - term bullish and medium - term bearish trends. Stainless steel had a situation of weak supply and demand, with support at 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton and resistance at 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures were provided. For example, copper closed at 79590 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; zinc closed at 22975 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector was presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, zinc, etc [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the Yangtze River spot price of copper was 79930 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the Yangtze River spot average price of 0 zinc was 22830 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][28][30][35][41][44][49][56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including the comparison of domestic and foreign price ratios, basis differences, and price differences between different contract months of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [57][61][62][66][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [75][78][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and is likely to reach one with the EU, leading to a decline in market risk - aversion and a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in H1 was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may experience a high - level correction; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with some being slightly stronger and some being volatile. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, the US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff rate on Japan, and the probability of the US - EU trade agreement has increased. Market risk appetite has risen, and the US dollar index is weak. Domestically, H1 economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures aim to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - **Asset trends**: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and it's advisable to be cautiously long; bonds are expected to correct at a high level and it's advisable to wait and see; for commodities, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may rebound with short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate and it's advisable to wait and see; precious metals may be volatile at a high level and it's advisable to be cautiously long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise, driven by sectors such as hydropower, securities, insurance, and kitchen and bathroom appliances. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It's advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. With the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st, market risk appetite has recovered, putting pressure on precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and gold still has strategic allocation value in the long - term. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to rebound. The "anti - involution" policy supports the cost of steel, and the actual demand is okay. The supply increase space is limited in the short - term. It's advisable to view the steel market as slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [4][5] - **Iron ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices weakened on Wednesday. The iron - water output is at a high level with limited upward space. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's advisable to view the price as range - bound in the short - term. [5] - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron may rebound following coal prices. The production situation of silicon manganese is relatively stable, and the mentality of silicon - iron merchants is positive. [6] Chemicals - **Soda ash**: The soda ash futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, the demand is weak, and the profit has declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is still under pressure. [7] - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the price. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US - Japan trade agreement has an impact on the market. The short - term sentiment is boosted by the industrial policy, but the future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. [9] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell, following the alumina trend. The fundamental situation is weak, and the policy impact is limited. It's not advisable to short for now. [9] - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, but the upward space is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with upward pressure in the medium - term. [10] - **Lithium carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price fell. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations due to the "anti - involution" policy. [11] - **Industrial silicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The "anti - involution" policy drives the price, and it's expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rose significantly. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes. [12] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The news of possible progress in US - EU trade negotiations has offset the impact of weak spot markets. However, the increase in Cushing crude oil inventory and upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations bring uncertainties. The oil price is expected to be mainly volatile. [13] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has回调. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory is not being effectively reduced. The short - term price will follow the crude oil price but may be weak with fluctuations. [13] - **PX**: The PX price is in a slightly stronger range - bound situation. The supply is tight, but the upward space is limited. [14] - **PTA**: The PTA price is expected to be volatile. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low, with a risk of production reduction. [14] - **Ethylene glycol**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at the support level. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to be volatile. [14] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is short - term strong but limited by the fundamentals. The inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to capital flow. [16] - **PP**: The PP price has risen due to policy expectations, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The long - term price is under pressure. [17] - **PL**: The PL price has limited upward drivers due to supply pressure and weak demand. The price may be volatile due to new listing and policy impact. [17] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price has adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak. The short - term price may rebound but has limited space, and the long - term price may decline. [18] - **Urea**: The urea price has risen due to market sentiment, but the demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak with fluctuations. [18][19] Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has been affected by weather. The expected rainfall may limit crop pressure. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: It's advisable to increase long positions in US soybeans above 1000. The short - term price of soybean meal is still strong, but the upward space is limited. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price of rapeseed oil may decline if palm oil corrects. The soybean - palm oil spread may widen. [21] - **Palm oil**: It's a short - term bull market for palm oil, but the upward resistance is increasing. It's advisable to be cautious when chasing orders. [21] - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is testing the support level. Policy rumors have affected the futures price, but the long - term price increase is limited. [22] - **Corn**: The corn price has slightly rebounded. The supply is gradually tightening, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. [22][23]

韩国财政部：考虑到美国财政部长的日程安排，与美国的2+2贸易谈判取消。 ...

Group 1 - The US and Japan have reached an agreement on tariffs, with the US imposing a 15% tariff and Japan committing to invest $550 billion [1] - The agreement includes Japan's purchase of $8 billion worth of US goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, 100 Boeing aircraft, and additional defense equipment [1] - The deal serves as a template for other countries like the EU and South Korea, pressuring them to accelerate negotiations to achieve lower tariffs [1] Group 2 - Experts believe the US-Japan trade agreement sets a benchmark for tariffs below a prohibitive level, with a target of keeping tariffs under 20% [2] - The EU and South Korea are expected to intensify their negotiations, particularly in the automotive sector, with reports suggesting the US is close to a similar agreement with the EU [2][3] - Japan successfully negotiated a reduction in automotive export tariffs from 25% to 15%, indicating the flexibility of the Trump administration in trade negotiations [3] Group 3 - Historical precedents suggest that the Trump administration may be willing to negotiate on industry tariffs, as seen in past adjustments to steel and aluminum tariffs [3] - Despite the emphasis on "buying American" and investment commitments, analysts remain cautious about the actual economic impact of these promises [4] - Previous commitments have often been re-packaged plans with limited real economic effects, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of such agreements [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and declined, influenced by trade agreements between the US and other partners, which reduced market risk appetite and led to selling pressure [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3431.72 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3438.67, and then fell to a low of $3381.55, closing at $3387.02, with a daily range of $57.12 and a decline of $44.7, or 1.3% [3][5]. - The price is expected to remain in a consolidation phase unless it breaks through resistance levels, with potential support at the 10-day moving average or mid-line [3][9]. Market Influences - The US dollar index is showing a weak trend, which may limit gold's decline, but there are still short-term risks of further price drops [3][5]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and PMI figures, are anticipated to have a mixed impact on the market, leaning towards bearish for gold [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent trade negotiations easing tensions, the overall impact on gold prices is expected to be limited, with a prevailing bullish sentiment due to potential interest rate cuts [5][7]. - The long-term view remains positive for gold, supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential bull market resurgence by the end of the year [5][9]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate a recent rebound after touching support levels, although there are signs of weakening bullish momentum [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3383 or $3370, while resistance levels are at $3400 or $3416 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs imposed by President Trump on various countries and the ongoing negotiations with the EU and Japan. Group 1: US Tariff Policies - President Trump announced plans to impose simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries [2] - The US is negotiating with the EU, offering lower tariffs if the EU opens its markets to American businesses [3] Group 2: EU Response to US Tariffs - The EU is preparing for a potential breakdown in trade negotiations, planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of US goods if talks fail [5] - The EU's initial countermeasures will combine previous tariffs on €210 billion worth of US goods with an additional list covering €720 billion worth of goods, pending approval from EU member states [6] Group 3: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US and Japan are focusing on semiconductor design and manufacturing, with Japan agreeing to increase its import of US rice by 75% and purchase $8 billion worth of US goods [10] - Japan has committed to buying 100 Boeing aircraft as part of the trade agreement [11] - Trump stated that Japan will open its market to various sectors, including automobiles and agricultural products, with a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15% [14]