周三早间，美日达成贸易协议。 据央视新闻，当地时间23日（周三）上午，日本首相石破茂在直播记者会上称，日本与美国就关税问题 达成一致，美方将向日本征收15%的关税，并增加进口美国大米。 协议达成后不久，有媒体报道称，石破茂近日将宣布辞职。 据央视新闻，石破茂称，将在8月结束前正式表明辞职意向。石破茂向周围人士透露，自民党将于8月汇 总参议院选举情况相关报告，他本人计划在8月结束前宣布辞职，已基本确定该意向。 然而，周三下午，石破茂亲自出面"辟谣"，称相关报道并不属实，尚未就此事进行讨论。 美日贸易协议达成后，有报道称石破茂计划在8月底前宣布辞职，石破茂随后出面否认传闻，并重申了 留任意向。 报道援引政府消息人士观点称，现任首相与前任首相会面实属罕见，预计"石破茂首相正采取向三位党 首低头的姿态"。 贸易谈判背景下的政治压力 此前，日本自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟在日本第27届参议院选举中惨败，但石破茂选择坚持留任， 此举正在自民党内面临越来越大的反对声。 据报道，石破茂在解释继续留任的决定时，强调了要避免在日本面临挑战时制造政治真空的必要性，特 别是与美国的艰难贸易谈判将对这个依赖出口的经济体产生巨大影响。 ...

实际上特朗普在宣布对日本关税降低到15%的同时，根据外媒报道，特朗普也公布了日本的让步，日本已经对美国开放汽车（包括卡车）的进口，同时允许 美国向日本出口大米。 特朗普在其社交平台上发布的内容，不仅仅是关于关税税率的降低。他还宣称，美国与日本达成了一项 "巨大" 的协议，甚至可能是有史以来最大的一项。 按照他的说法，日本将向美国投资 5500 亿美元，并且美国将获得其中 90% 的利润，这项投资还将创造数十万个就业岗位。 此外，日本将开放其市场进行贸易，涉及汽车、卡车、大米以及其他部分农产品和商品领域，而作为交换，日本将向美国支付 15% 的对等关税。 特朗普的这一系列表述，无疑显示出他对这份协议的高度满意，认为这对美国来说是一场 "大获全胜" 的交易。 美国总统特朗普在7月22日通过社交媒体宣布，美国对于日本的关税从原来的25%降低到15%，如果仅仅从税率来看，日本首相石破茂顶住压力，已经颇有 赢了的节奏。 日本和美国已经举行了多轮谈判，但是美国总统特朗普在7月7日宣布，要对日本产品加征25%的关税，从美国的计划来看，是要从8月1日开始新的关税税 率，当时美国是通过美国总统致函日本首相石破茂的方式，从而通知 ...

中国商务部：国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。中美双方将按照两国元首6月5日通话重要共识，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，继续就彼此关心的经贸问题开展磋商。 https://t.co/TYjTmwfiP4外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国财长贝森特：与中国的贸易谈判已经进入新阶段。与中国的会谈将于下周一周二在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩举行。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the escalating trade tensions between the US and EU, with President Trump threatening to impose a 30% tariff on EU products starting August 1, 2025, which could severely disrupt transatlantic trade [2][3] - The EU had hoped to negotiate a compromise to maintain a 10% tariff on most products, but the recent US proposals have been significantly higher, leading to a loss of confidence in negotiations [2] - The US has rejected the EU's proposal for a "freeze" on new tariffs, citing national security concerns, which further exacerbates the divide between the two parties [3] Group 2 - Silver prices experienced volatility, with a significant increase of over 2% on July 21, closing at $38.90 per ounce, and reaching a high of $39.03, approaching a multi-year high of $39.11 [4] - Analysts suggest that the decline in US Treasury yields and a general risk-off sentiment have weakened the dollar, contributing to the surge in silver prices [4] - If silver prices break through the annual high of $39.12, the next targets could be $39.50 and $40.00, while a drop below $38.50 may lead to a test of the $37.20 level [4]

日本央行副行长内田真一：目前从数据来看，很难判断贸易谈判的结果，以及国内外经济和市场将朝哪 个方向发展。 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to different trends in various metals [1][3] - Gold and silver are likely to rise due to trade uncertainties and the potential for Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long - term due to global copper mine shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is abundant, limiting its upside potential in the short - term, with a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook [1][8][9] - Aluminum and nickel prices may experience short - term rebounds, but are affected by factors such as inventory and seasonal demand [1][10][11][12][13] - Lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to supply - side disruptions [1][14][15] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: The US trade negotiations with Brazil and the EU are not going smoothly, and the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st has increased the safe - haven sentiment for gold and silver [2] - **基本逻辑**: Trump pressures the Fed to cut interest rates, the US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and political situation. The Fed rate cuts may exceed expectations, and central banks continue to buy gold, supporting the long - term upward trend of gold [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper has rebounded strongly and is consolidating around the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **产业逻辑**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, electrolytic copper production has increased, domestic social inventory has decreased seasonally, downstream开工率 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors has maintained resilience [6] - **策略推荐**: With Trump's pressure on the Fed and positive short - term macro - sentiment, it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, copper is still expected to rise. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [79000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper resistance [8] - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, new smelting capacity is being released, and the processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising. The demand side is affected by the high - temperature season and the consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [8] - **策略推荐**: Due to cost support, low inventory, and macro - sentiment stimulation, zinc has rebounded. It is recommended to hold existing long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22800, 23200], and for London zinc is [2750, 2950] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina also shows a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased, the cost has risen, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream processing industry's开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of spot alumina is relatively tight in the short - term [11] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20300 - 21200], and alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices continue to rebound, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, there are uncertainties in the overseas environment, the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation has improved slightly. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and the inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 has increased in position and reached a new high [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are more willing to sell, and the basis has weakened. The total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand growth in the new energy vehicle market has slowed down. However, there are many supply - side disruptions, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand situation in advance [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a range of [71800 - 74000] [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, be vigilant about sentiment reversal [2][6] - Soybean oil: Follows the oil and fat sector, relatively weak among varieties [2][6] - Soybean meal: Market sentiment is strong, the market fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Soybean: Technically, it fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Corn: Runs in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - Sugar: Conducts narrow - range consolidation [2][21] - Cotton: Pay attention to market sentiment changes [2][26] - Eggs: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][33] - Pigs: Macro sentiment is strong, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][35] - Peanuts: Run in a fluctuating manner [2][39] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,926 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,954 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,076 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease, and night - session closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: UOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 5 - 9%. MPOC expected next month's crude palm oil price to be between 4,100 - 4,300 Malaysian ringgit. SGS estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 35.99% compared to the previous month [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0, soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4232 yuan/ton with a 1.34% increase, and night - session closing price was 4241 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3086 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase, and night - session closing price was 3092 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 22, CBOT soybeans fell due to good Midwest weather and focus on trade negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, soybean trend intensity is +1 (only for the daily - session main - contract futures price on the report day) [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,322 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,303 yuan/ton with a 0.82% decrease [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, container collection port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions had different changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.26 cents/pound with a 0.1 decrease. The mainstream spot price was 6040 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved importing 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's crushing progress was slow, but MIX increased significantly year - on - year [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and night - session closing price was 14235 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market's demand was insufficient. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2508's closing price was 3,574 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.17% increase [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [33]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 14430 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. The futures price of live pigs 2509 was 14380 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan increase [35]. - **Market Logic**: Currently in the consumption off - season, the spot price has dropped rapidly. Wait for end - of - month confirmation. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is 0 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: PK510's closing price was 8,140 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [39]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions such as Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, raw material acquisitions are basically over, and inventory trading is the main activity, with prices generally stable [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [41].

Group 1 - South Korea will exclude rice and beef markets from trade negotiations with the United States [1]

金十数据7月23日讯，在宣布与日本达成贸易协议后，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟代表将于周三与美国 进行贸易谈判。特朗普表示，"明天轮到欧洲要来了，次日还有其他一些国家要来。" 特朗普：将于周三与欧盟进行贸易谈判 ...

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正称其使命已完成。 ...