行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月7日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 110.960 | 110.620 | 110.470 | 110.590 | -0.490 | -0.44 | ...

2025年，适度宽松的货币政策为经济回升向好和金融市场稳定运行营造了适宜的货币金融环境。中央经 济工作会议明确2026年要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，人民银行将全面贯彻落实会议精神，加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。一是总量方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多 种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目 标相匹配。2025年社会融资规模中，债券等贷款以外的融资方式占比已超过50%，预计2026年增速仍将 超过全部社会融资规模增速。二是价格方面，健全市场化的利率形成、调控和传导机制，理顺政策利率 向各类市场利率的传导关系，进一步做好明示贷款综合融资成本工作，推动规范融资中间费用，促进社 会综合融资成本低位运行。综合施策、稳定预期，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。三是 结构方面，发挥好结构性货币政策工具的激励引导作用，优化工具管理，继续做好金融"五篇大文章"， 加力支持扩大内需重点领域。四是传导方面，做好政策沟通和预期引导，加强货币政策和财政、产业等 政策在需求管理、结构调整方面的协调配合，进一步畅通传导机制。 1月5日至6日，中国人 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a fixed amount of 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repos to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months (90 days) [1] - This operation is a continuation of the PBOC's strategy, marking the third consecutive month of equal rollover for the 3-month reverse repos, with 1.1 trillion yuan maturing this month [1] - In addition to the 3-month reverse repos, there will be 600 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos and 200 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing this month [1] Group 2 - The PBOC emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026, aiming to keep liquidity ample [2] - According to a report from CITIC Securities, the PBOC is expected to utilize various policy tools, including government bond transactions, MLF, reverse repos, and possibly reserve requirement ratio cuts, to maintain liquidity [2] - The overall expectation for January is that the funding environment will remain relatively loose [2]

来源：中国新闻网 上述信息显示，谢光启已出任央行货币政策司司长。 1月6日晚间，中国央行下属《金融时报》发表《央行明确今年七大重点工作，解读来了》一文，其中谢 光启以中国人民银行货币政策司司长的身份接受了记者采访。 另据@央视网财经消息，2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。中国人民银行货币政策司司长 谢光启表示，2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。加强货币政策和财政、产业等政策在需求管 理、结构调整方面的协调配合。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan (approximately 160 billion USD) three-month reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2][3] - The operation on January 8 is a complete hedge against the 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase that is maturing, indicating a rollover without increasing the amount [3] - Analysts suggest that the lack of an increase in the reverse repurchase amount is due to a reduction in year-end liquidity pressure and the upcoming seasonal liquidity pressure before the Spring Festival [3] Group 2 - The PBOC's actions are aimed at ensuring funding for key projects and supporting economic recovery, with a new local government debt limit for 2026 already set [4] - There is an expectation of a significant issuance of government bonds in January 2026, which will contribute to a tightening of liquidity [4] - The PBOC is likely to continue injecting medium-term liquidity through reverse repos to stabilize the funding environment, reflecting a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [4][5] Group 3 - The PBOC is expected to utilize both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools in January to inject liquidity into the market [5] - The overall monetary policy for 2026 is characterized by a continuation of a moderately loose stance, aiming to keep liquidity abundant [5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has set a flexible and efficient monetary policy for 2026, emphasizing the use of various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample market liquidity [1] - China's gold reserves have increased for the 14th consecutive month, reaching 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.32 tons) by the end of December, reflecting a diversification strategy in foreign exchange reserves [2] - Over ten banks are expected to appoint Chief Compliance Officers in 2025, following the implementation of the Compliance Management Measures for Financial Institutions, which mandates the establishment of this role at the headquarters level [3] Group 2 - Postal Savings Bank has received regulatory approval to absorb and merge its wholly-owned subsidiary, Postal Huinong Bank, which has not been profitable since its establishment in 2022 [4] - Three joint-stock banks have accelerated investments in new energy and new materials, with over 6 billion yuan allocated to projects in these sectors since the establishment of their financial asset investment companies [5] - A competitive landscape has emerged in retail wealth management as multiple banks launch asset enhancement activities to attract customers and optimize asset allocation [6] Group 3 - Agricultural Bank of China will terminate its personal mobile banking security service to enhance user experience and service efficiency, effective January 9, 2026 [7] - Jiangxi Rural Commercial Bank has received approval for a dual strategy of equity investment and debt equity transfer in several local rural banks, aimed at strengthening its regional presence [9] - Lin Huihong has been approved to serve as the Chairman of Hang Seng Bank (China), in addition to her role as CEO, which is expected to bolster the bank's focus on the mainland market [10] Group 4 - In response to rising gold prices due to geopolitical events, banks have launched gold-linked structured deposits with expected annual returns reaching up to 4%, combining safety and yield [11]

| 宏观偏暖商品普涨,双焦供需改善领涨 | | | | | 2026/01/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | 从业资格号: F03100815 | 从业资格号:F03122523 | 从业资格号:F03099559 | | 从业资格号:F03144159 | 从业资格号:F03118246 | | 投资咨询号:Z0020955 | 投资咨询号: Z0019832 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021807 | 按贫容间号: Z0022199 | 妆货公馆号: Z0022727 | | 昨日夜盘起,商品市场情绪高涨、各品种几乎全线飘红,其中焦煤多个合约盘中触及涨停,焦炭主力合约盘中涨超7%,领涨商 | | | | | | | 品期货。我们认为双焦的大幅上涨有以下两个原因。 | | | | | | | 其一,2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日-6日召开. 会议内容使得市场宏观预期回暖,带动整体商品市场情绪升温。会议 | | | | | | | 强调,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,继续实施适度 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, the domestic capital market demonstrated strong resilience and vitality, with major equity indices surpassing 4000 points, particularly in technology and banking sectors [1] - The central economic work conference has laid out plans for 2026, indicating that growth-stabilizing policies are expected to continue, which may further enhance market confidence [1] - Consumption is projected to continue its moderate recovery, becoming the main driver of economic growth, while investment is expected to stabilize amid structural improvements [4][3] Group 2 - The fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain a moderate expansion, with new special bond quotas expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, and the scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds likely to remain at 1.3 trillion yuan [6][5] - The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately, with an annual average around 0.5%, while the producer price index (PPI) is projected to turn positive year-on-year by the third quarter [4] - The monetary policy is expected to have room for further easing, with potential for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, particularly focusing on supporting technology, green initiatives, and consumption [5][6] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to experience a "down then up" trend in long-term bond yields, influenced by economic recovery, fiscal expansion, and improved policy expectations [7] - The RMB is projected to maintain a stable appreciation trend, supported by a weaker dollar, a stabilizing domestic economy, and ongoing foreign exchange demand [8] - Key sectors such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing are anticipated to emerge as new highlights in the industry landscape, driven by supportive technology policies [12][10]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery while maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions [1][3][19]. Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2026, the PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to ensure ample liquidity [3][21]. - The growth of social financing and money supply will be aligned with economic growth and price level expectations [5][19]. Focus Areas for Financial Support - The PBOC will enhance financial services for high-quality development of the real economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and medium-sized enterprises [7][9][19]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be emphasized to support consumption and effective investment, particularly in key areas such as green transformation and rural-urban integration [9][21]. Financial Market Opening - The PBOC plans to deepen the high-level opening of financial markets in 2026, optimizing mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" to facilitate cross-border use of the Renminbi [10][12]. - The expansion of cross-border financial services will include enhancing the cross-border wealth management connect and promoting the use of digital currency [14][19]. Support for Technological Innovation - The PBOC aims to provide robust financial support for high-level technological self-reliance, with a focus on developing a differentiated financial market ecosystem for technology enterprises [22][30]. - Initiatives such as the "Technology Board" in the bond market will be further developed to meet the financing needs of technology companies throughout their lifecycle [25][30].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1] - The PBOC plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [1] - The meeting highlights the need to ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 2 - The PBOC outlines a series of measures to deepen financial reform and open up to the outside world, including optimizing the "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" mechanisms [2] - Support for the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center and the maintenance of Hong Kong's status as an international financial center are key focuses [2] - The PBOC aims to enhance cross-border financial services and infrastructure for the use of the Renminbi, encouraging more eligible foreign entities to issue Panda bonds [2]