Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and concerns over the Fed's independence have led to a resurgence in precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [1]. - Geopolitical risks have driven up crude oil prices, and in the short - term, the price may remain strong with emotional premiums [1]. - Steel prices may rise first and then fall this week, showing a range - bound pattern [3]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, and there is still upward momentum in both futures and spot prices [3]. - The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon remains loose, and the price is expected to gradually decline to the cost valuation in the medium term [4]. - The short - term supply - demand game in the pig market continues, with prices fluctuating slightly in the range of 11700 - 11900 and the price center shifting upward [4]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with inventory accumulation suppressing the upside but strong support at the bottom [5]. - The upside of soybean meal prices is restricted, and the 05 contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [5]. - The bond market is under pressure due to tightening funds, and treasury bonds will show more volatility [6]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and expectations of monetary easing, but the upward momentum needs attention [6]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with high - level inventory increase and expected decline in imports [7]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with high - level inventory increase and new production capacity pressure [8]. - PVC prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with sufficient supply, weak domestic demand, and rising inventory [9]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level range - bound pattern, supported by long - term expectations but lacking short - term demand drive [10]. - PTA will transit in a fluctuating manner, with a supply increase and weakening demand as the holiday approaches [11]. - Natural rubber will be treated with a wide - range fluctuation, with rising raw material prices, inventory accumulation, and flexible production control in the demand side [12]. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions have eased slightly, but risk - aversion factors still exist. The Fed's independence has raised market concerns, leading to a resurgence in precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [1]. - **Silver**: The ongoing investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has affected market expectations. Risk - aversion and expectations of monetary easing have led to a rise in silver prices, but the upward momentum needs attention [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories. EIA predicts a decline in US crude oil production in the forecast period. Geopolitical risks have driven up prices, and in the short - term, the price may remain strong with emotional premiums [1]. Metals - **Steel**: On January 13, domestic steel markets showed mixed trends. High costs support steel prices, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a decline in prices later this week, with a range - bound pattern [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased, and inventory has decreased. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve, leading to upward momentum in prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The开工率 of silicon - manganese enterprises has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The price is expected to decline to the cost valuation in the medium term [4]. - **Copper**: The US CPI growth rate has reached the lowest level since July 2025, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts in the second quarter have increased, which may boost copper prices in the short term. The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality", and copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level range - bound pattern [10]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia will maintain the biodiesel policy at the B40 level. The domestic import profit has been significantly repaired, and the number of domestic purchases has increased. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The downstream feed enterprises have high inventory levels, and the supply of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is still abundant, restricting the upside of prices. The 05 contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [5]. - **Pig**: The national pig prices showed mixed trends. The supply - demand game will continue in the short term, with prices fluctuating slightly in the range of 11700 - 11900 and the price center shifting upward [4]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has declined slightly, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash has declined slightly, production has increased, and inventory has risen significantly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **PVC**: The price has increased slightly, production is expected to increase slowly, and inventory has risen. The market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The production of PTA has increased year - on - year, and the supply is expected to increase in January. The demand is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, and the market will transit in a fluctuating manner [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in Southeast Asia have stopped falling and rebounded, and domestic inventory has accumulated. The demand side is in a state of flexible production control, and the market will show a wide - range fluctuation [12]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Shibor short - term varieties have risen, indicating tightening funds. The bond market is under pressure, and treasury bonds will show more volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The December 2025 US CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with previous values and expectations, while the month-on-month increase is 0.3%, higher than the previous 0.1% and in line with expectations. The core CPI year-on-year increase is 2.6%, matching the previous value but lower than the expected 2.7% [1][5][15] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - The overall CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by rebounds in food and service prices. The core CPI year-on-year increase is 2.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, higher than the previous 0.1% but lower than the expected 0.3% [1][5][15] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices remained flat, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month change of 0%. Notably, used car prices fell significantly by -1.1% month-on-month, which is much lower than the average of 0.5% in October and November, impacting the core CPI by approximately 3 basis points [11][12] - Core service prices rebounded, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, up from an average of 0.1% in October and November, and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Rent was a major contributor, with both OER and primary residence rent increasing by 0.3% month-on-month [2][12][13] Market Reactions - Following the data release, expectations for interest rate cuts remained largely unchanged. The probability of no rate cuts in January, March, and April is high, while the probability of a cut in June is 48.1%, slightly up from 46.2% [3][17] - The US dollar index continued to appreciate slightly, reaching 99.18, while US stock markets saw declines, with the Dow down 0.8% and the S&P 500 down 0.19% [3][17][18] Federal Reserve and Policy Outlook - The divergence between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy is a key market focus. The ongoing criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell regarding potential perjury related to the Fed's renovation project raises questions about the independence of monetary policy [4][19]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters and potential false statements made to Congress about the project's scale [2] - Powell stated that the investigation undermines the Fed's independence in setting interest rates, raising concerns about whether monetary policy will be influenced by political pressure [2][3] - Economists believe that this investigation could have significant implications for consumers' finances, as it may affect inflation and interest rates [3][4] Group 2 - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi highlighted that rising inflation poses a "fatal weakness" for existing bond investors, as it diminishes the real value of bond income streams [3] - Analysts express concerns that the investigation could lead to rising interest rates, which may counteract efforts to lower mortgage rates and negatively impact the economy [3][4] - Historical precedents show that political pressure on the Fed can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, as seen during Nixon's presidency, which resulted in high inflation and stagnation in the 1970s [6][7]

尽管如此，巴尔金警告称，关税从长远来看仍是通胀压力的一个来源。虽然这些影响的时间和程度尚不 明朗，但他表示，供应链中仍然存在一些残余成本压力，这再次强调了在评估中期通胀前景时保持谨慎 的必要性。 上周五，美国劳工统计局披露了一份喜忧参半的2025年12月非农就业报告。报告显示，12月非农就业人 数增加5万人，预期增7万人；失业率4.4%，预期4.5%。 巴尔金认为，上述经济形势的变化并不需要美联储立即采取应对措施。 巴尔金还淡化了任何一次美联储会议的重要性，他表示，任何一次政策会议都并非决定性的，并指出美 联储可以根据需要调整政策方向。 1月14日，美国里士满联储主席汤姆·巴尔金于周二表示，12月的通胀数据 "令人鼓舞"，但他同时指出， 通胀通常会在年初出现大幅上升，并表示希望未来几个月通胀水平能够保持温和。 "没有哪一次会议能起到决定性作用，"他说道，并补充称，如果决策者"犯了错误"，他们仍然可以在随 后的会议上进行纠正，这表明美联储对循序渐进、依赖数据的政策方针充满信心。 巴尔金在华盛顿向特许金融分析师协会发表讲话时称："我认为当前的形势正处在一种微妙的平衡之 中。"他提到，通胀率虽高于目标水平，但似乎并 ...

凤凰网财经讯 1月14日，沪指平开，深成指涨0.17%，创业板指涨0.34%。贵金属、锰硅等板块指数涨幅 居前，商业航天、AI应用等板块指数跌幅居前。 机构观点 中信建投：持续看好战略金属投资机遇 中金公司：通胀温和，但美联储1月仍不会降息 美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合市场预期；核心CPI同比2.6%，低于市场预期。从分项来看，食品价 格大幅上涨，与关税相关的商品价格稳定，房租与非房租核心通胀均明显反弹。回顾2025年，特朗普关 税对通胀的传导比预期的更温和，主要通胀压力仍来自于服务业。往前看，需要关注此前选择自行消化 成本、尚未提价的企业是否会补涨，以及服务业的韧性是否形成结构性通胀压力。对于美联储而言，温 和的通胀数据不足以推动其1月再次降息，维持1月按兵不动，下一次降息或在3月的判断。 中信证券：关注情绪上行的主题轮动板块 市场流动性持续增强，A股成交额突破3万亿元，主题板块轮动频率加快。从外部环境看，美国12月季 调后非农就业人口增加5万人，低于市场预期的6万人；失业率降至4.4%，低于预期的4.5%，降息预期 降低。数据公布后，市场预期美联储1月降息的可能性大幅降低；从内部环境看，国内经济 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 103,540 yuan, while London copper slightly retreated to 13,142 USD [3][13] - The core CPI in the US for December 2025 was 2.6%, lower than expected, leading to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which limits expectations for interest rate cuts [4][14] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase in copper warehouse receipts by 5,505 tons to 122,100 tons, while LME copper inventories rose by 4,325 tons to 141,500 tons [4][14] - Chile's copper exports to China in December 2025 were approximately 751,000 tons, showing a month-on-month improvement but still relatively low [4][14] - Market sentiment is currently warm, supported by strong fundamentals and pre-holiday stocking, with expectations for copper prices to maintain high-level fluctuations [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices continue to operate at high levels due to uncertainties regarding Indonesian policies [4][14] - The Indonesian government is currently calculating the 2026 RKAB quota, aiming to match supply and demand, which has somewhat alleviated market concerns [4][14] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile until Indonesian policies are clarified, with the Shanghai nickel reference range set between 130,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [4][14] Group 3: Silicon and Aluminum - The price of polysilicon remains low due to a decline in market sentiment, with global production expected to drop to around 110,000 tons in January [5][15] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic downstream may temporarily benefit exports, but the impact on polysilicon demand is expected to be limited [5][15] - Aluminum prices are under pressure, with the 05 contract experiencing a significant drop and overall supply remaining excessive at around 96 million tons [5][15] - The 05 aluminum contract is expected to operate within a range of 2,500 to 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [5][15] Group 4: Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, with domestic TC prices stabilizing around 1,100 yuan, while the willingness to accept prices below 1,000 yuan is low [7][17] - The lead market is experiencing a slight recovery in supply due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans, although demand remains weak [8][18] - The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [8][18] Group 5: Precious Metals - The US December CPI data met expectations, leading to a slowdown in the upward momentum of precious metals, with only silver continuing to perform strongly [9][19] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly with rising tensions between the US and Iran, and ongoing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [9][19] - The market is awaiting further guidance on tariffs and geopolitical developments, with current precious metal prices at high levels and significant volatility expected [9][19]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices showed volatility, initially breaking through $4640/oz with a daily increase of 0.56%, then falling to $4580/oz with a daily decrease of 0.76%, and finally breaking back above $4600/oz with a daily increase of 0.02% [1][12] - Spot gold performed strongly, breaking through $4590/oz with a daily increase of 0.08%, reaching a historical high of $4631.34/oz, and ultimately breaking $4630/oz with a daily increase of 0.75% [1][13] - The silver market was also active, with New York silver breaking through $89/oz with a daily increase of 4.61%, previously breaking $88/oz with a daily increase of 3.42%, and finally breaking $87/oz with a daily increase of 0.73% [1][13] Group 2: Basic Metals Futures - Tin's main contract increased by 4% in a single day, currently priced at 398,380.00 yuan [3][15] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - WTI crude oil prices broke through $61/barrel with a daily increase of 2.85% [4][16] - Domestic fuel oil's main contract showed strong performance, increasing by 5% in a single day, currently priced at 2,560.00 yuan, having previously risen by 4% to 2,536.00 yuan [5][17] - The API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 recorded 5.278 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations of -2.238 million barrels and the previous value of -2.766 million barrels [6][18] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - The U.S. has relaxed export controls on Nvidia's H200 chips to China, with related sales now subject to approval and security review by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which will also collect fees from the transactions [7][19] Group 5: Other Market Dynamics - Bitcoin prices continued to rise, breaking through $93,000 (daily increase of 1.98%), $94,000 (daily increase of 2.98%), $95,000 (daily increase of 5.05%), and ultimately surpassing $96,000 with a daily increase of 5.18% [9][21] - Ethereum broke through $3,200 (daily increase of 3.62%) and further surpassed $3,300 with a daily increase of 8.77% [10][22] - Methanol's main contract increased by 2% in a single day, currently priced at 2,308.00 yuan [11][23]

美国12月核心消费者价格涨幅低于市场预期，进一步增强了市场对通胀正在降温的信心。当前，美联储正评估下一步利率政策走向。 美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，美国12月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，与11月持平，符合市场预期。 剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增长2.6%，低于预估的2.7%;环比增长0.2%，低于预估的0.3%。 住房成本为最大贡献单项 报告显示，住房成本作为通胀黏性的关键因素，当月上涨了0.4%，是月度涨幅的最大贡献项。该类别占CPI权重超过三分之一，同比上涨3.2%。 报告的其他部分也显示通货膨胀持续存在。 12月食品价格上涨0.7%，但鸡蛋价格暴跌8.2%，较去年同期下降近21%，此前鸡蛋价格曾大幅上涨。其他价格上涨的领域包括娱乐、机票和医疗保健。 部分对关税敏感的类别也出现上涨，其中服装价格有所上升。然而，由于前总统唐纳德·特朗普暂缓了对该领域进口商品加征关税的威胁，家居用品价格下 降了0.5%。 劳工统计局称，休闲娱乐支出增长1.2%，是该指数自1993年有记录以来的最大月度涨幅。 美联储设定的通胀年度目标为2%，因此这份报告提供了一些证据，表明物价上涨速度正朝着目标回落，但仍处于较高水 ...

摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）周二在财报电话会议上发出警告，称特朗普政府对美联储的 攻击可能会适得其反，进而推高借贷成本和通胀。 戴蒙明确表示，他全力支持央行的独立性，并对美联储主席鲍威尔个人怀有"极大的敬意"。他指 出："任何削弱（美联储独立性）的做法可能都不是个好主意。在我看来，这会产生相反的后果。它将 提高通胀预期，并可能随着时间的推移推高利率。" 这一言论发表之际，市场正密切关注美联储与白宫之间日益紧张的关系。此前几天，鲍威尔透露自己正 受到特朗普政府司法部的刑事调查。对此，特朗普周二回应称，他认为自己的做法没有问题，并反击 称："我们应该降低利率。Jamie 戴蒙可能想要更高的利率。也许那样他能赚更多的钱。" 捍卫央行独立性 华尔街其他高管也表达了担忧。纽约梅隆银行首席执行官Robin Vince指出，侵蚀美联储独立性与白宫 改善消费者负担能力的愿望背道而驰。Vince表示："质疑债券市场的基本原则之一，实际上冒着适得其 反的风险，可能会推高利率，因为市场不得不担心一些坦率地说本不该担心的事情。" 摩根大通首席财务官Jeremy Barnum也附和了戴蒙的警告，称更大的问题在于"对 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合市场预期；核心CPI同比 2.6%，低于市场预期。从分项来看，食品价格大幅上涨，与关税相关的商品价格稳定，房租与非房租 核心通胀均明显反弹。回顾2025年，特朗普关税对通胀的传导比我们预期的更温和，主要通胀压力仍来 自于服务业。 往前看，需要关注此前选择自行消化成本、尚未提价的企业是否会补涨，以及服务业的韧性是否形成结 构性通胀压力。中金公司认为，对于美联储而言，温和的通胀数据不足以推动其1月再次降息，中金公 司维持1月按兵不动，下一次降息或在3月的判断。 中金公司主要观点如下： 美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合市场预期；核心CPI同比2.6%，低于市场预期。从分项来看，食品价 格大幅上涨，与关税相关的商品价格稳定，房租与非房租核心通胀均明显反弹。回顾2025年，特朗普关 税对通胀的传导比我们预期的更温和，主要通胀压力仍来自于服务业。往前看，需要关注此前选择自行 消化成本、尚未提价的企业是否会补涨，以及服务业的韧性是否形成结构性通胀压力。我们认为，对于 美联储而言，温和的通胀数据不足以推动其1月再次降息，我们维持1月按兵不动， ...