美国通胀再度释放"降温"信号。最新数据显示，1月整体CPI环比仅升0.2、同比回落至2.4%，均低于市场预期；剔 除食品与能源后的核心CPI同比降至2.5，创2021年3月以来最低水平，接近疫情前区间。数据公布后，市场对美联 储年内宽松的押注明显升温，交易员预计4月前降息概率约30%，而6月前启动降息的可能性已跃升至80%。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）周二（2月13日）公布的数据显示，整体CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于市场预期的0.3%；同比 增速回落至2.4%，不及预期的2.5%，并刷新去年5月以来的最低同比涨幅。若回看自2021年春季通胀加速上行以 来的走势，本次读数仅略高于去年4月的阶段性低点2.3%，表明通胀回落动能仍在延续。 在剔除食品和能源等波动项后，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，符合预期；同比增速降至2.5%，同样与预期一致。需要 指出的是，核心CPI同比已降至2021年3月以来的最低水平，意味着核心通胀基本回到疫情后生活成本快速上升之 前的区间。 （图源：CNBC） 经济学家称，通胀仍高于美联储政策制定者所期望的目标水平。美联储的通胀目标约为2%。 利率预期方面，市场押注美联储在4月前启动降息的概率 ...

黄金上周重挫，疯狂跳水220美金，深度调整后。又是大力回升160美金，今天开局大跌80美金，继续争 夺5000的关口。 今天的走势 上周探底回升，重返5045后。 今天开局直接低开了，一跌就是60美金。 高位调整阶段，又是多空争夺。 上午闪跌，先看回踩确认。 下方先看4965的位置，关注回落调整。 站稳此位置，上方再反弹，继续看挑战5045的位置。 再次上破，续涨，上看5120的阻力。 当然了，下方持续回调。 下方跌破了4965，继续看向4878的支撑。 黄金1月疯狂跳水后，本月进入了回升模式，而且整个过程比较坎坷。三度重挫深度调整后，又成功顶 了回来，而且再创新高。多空势力不断较劲，而且三度寻底，底部抬升，依然看涨新高看向5400的区 域。同时，下方调整，可看向4800的区域。 上周主要因素： 一方面，上周缺席了非农数据姗姗来迟，给了一个大大的意外，不同于小非农爆冷，裁员激增，非农直 接冰火两重天。就业报告，就业大增超预期，失业率降温，再次打压美联储降息预期。更重要的美股重 挫跳水，科技股遭抛压，连锁反应，引发黄金疯狂跳水。 另外一方面，美1月CPI数据降临，又是一个大意外，结果大幅不及预期，通胀降温，再次 ...

美国总统特朗普及其他人士呼吁降息的论调，日益建立在对美联储历史的一种诱人解读之上。他们声 称，上世纪90年代末，时任美联储主席艾伦・格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）早早识别出生产率繁荣，明 白这能让经济更快增长而不引发通胀，因此拒绝加息。他们辩称，既然当年美联储能做到这一点，如今 面对预期中的人工智能驱动生产率激增，美联储也应照做。特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文・沃什 （Kevin Warsh）近期重提这一叙事。 这个故事很吸引人，但大体上是错误的。 格林斯潘确实比多数人更早意识到生产率增长在加速。例如，在1999年5月的一次演讲中，他重申观 点："劳动生产率增长提速——超出商业周期影响——似乎是通胀放缓背后的关键因素。" 但传奇与历史记录的分歧正在于此。仅仅一个月后，美联储就加息25个基点。此外，格林斯潘发表演讲 的当月，正是通胀稳步上升的起点。核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀在随后一年上升约0.5个百分点， 并以类似速度持续攀升，直至2001年衰退全面展开。若无那场衰退，通胀很可能继续大幅突破美联储的 舒适区间。 本文作者为哈佛大学教授、前白宫经济顾问委员会主席 Jason Furman 。 但存在 ...

本文字数：670，阅读时长大约1分钟 来源 |中国基金报 黄金白银，又跳水了！ 2月16日，现货黄金、白银盘中再度下探。现货黄金盘中跌超1%，跌破4980美元/盎司，失守5000美元/ 盎司的压力位，日内跌1.29%。 | < w | | 伦敦金现 | | Q | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4977.140 | | 昨结 5042.205 | 开盘 | 5028.944 | | | -65.065 -1.29% | | 总量(kg) 0.00 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5053.110 | 持 仓 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4971.238 | 白 仓 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K 周K 月K 更多 | | | 0 | | 叠加 | | | | 盘口 | | | 5113.172 | | | 1.41% 卖1 | | 0 | | | | | | 买1 4977.140 | 0 | | | | | | 12:25 4976.59 ...

2026.02. 16 本文字数：670，阅读时长大约1分钟 来源 | 中国基金报 黄 金白银，又跳水了！ 白银现货早间一度跌超 3% ，跌至 75 美元 / 盎司 以下。短线拉升后，现货白银价格再度下挫，截至发稿跌超 2% 。 | < w | 伦敦银现 | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 75.250 | | 昨结 | 77.338 | 中 | 77.502 | | -2.088 | -2.70% 总量(kg) | | 0.00 | 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 | 78.208 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | 0 | | 最低价 | 74.615 | 增 仓 | o | 内 盘 | 0 | | 分时 五日 | EK 产K | 月K | 白天 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叠加 | | | 盘口 | | | 80.061 | | 3.52% | | | | | | 室1 | 75.340 | 0 | | | | ਫ਼ੀ | 75.25 ...

【导读】现货黄金跌破4990美元/盎司，现货白银同步走低 黄金白银，又跳水了！ 2月16日，现货黄金、白银盘中再度下探。现货黄金盘中跌超1%，跌破4990美元/盎司，失守5000美元/盎司的压力位。 | 〈 | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4996.880 | | 昨结 | 5042.205 | 开盘 | 5028.944 | | | -45.325 | -0.90% | 总量(kq) | 0.00 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5053.110 | 持 | 0 | 外 盟 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4988.700 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | સ્ત્રે | 五日 | 日K | 間K | 月K | 重多 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价: -- | 盘口 | | | 5095.710 | | | | 1.06% | 卖1 4997.180 | 0 | | | | | | | 员1 4996.8 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold has fallen below $4990 per ounce, breaking the $5000 resistance level, with a decline of over 1% [1] - Spot silver has also decreased, initially dropping over 3% to below $75 per ounce, and later showing a decline of over 2% [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January increased by 0.2%, which is lower than market expectations, easing concerns about accelerating inflation [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 9.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 90.2% [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has set clear red lines regarding post-war arrangements in Gaza and the Iranian nuclear issue, expressing skepticism about upcoming negotiations with Iran [5] - Netanyahu emphasized that any agreement must include the dismantling of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, not just a pause in uranium enrichment [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Several banks expect gold prices to rebound, with ANZ raising its gold price target for Q2 2026 from $5400 to $5800 per ounce, aligning with bullish forecasts from various financial institutions [6] - Analysts note that the current gold price trend is fundamentally different from past speculative bubbles, driven by structural demand and a defensive stance against dollar credit risk [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The long-term logic for gold as a strategic asset remains unchanged, with a need for time to digest the significant profits accumulated over the past two years [7] - Domestic gold jewelry prices remain high, with prices for gold jewelry from major brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook at approximately 1534 RMB per gram [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are retreating from risk assets and turning to U.S. Treasury bonds as concerns grow over the sustainability of AI investment returns and high market valuations [1][4] Group 1: Market Trends - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a shift in market sentiment, with investors becoming increasingly sensitive to the negative externalities of the AI investment cycle [1] - The S&P 500 index has reached new highs, but stocks directly impacted by AI disruptions have begun to decline [2][4] - A basket of 108 AI-impacted stocks has shown a significant divergence from the broader market, indicating a potential peak in AI optimism [2][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 U.S. GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.6%, driven by capital expenditures from hyperscalers [1] - However, the firm warns that this growth comes with risks, particularly if investment returns do not materialize, leading to potential overinvestment issues [1][4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - High-income groups (earning over $100,000) have shown a notable shift in their perception of the economy since the beginning of the year, reflecting concerns over asset price volatility [5][6][7] - The decline in confidence among affluent consumers is often a precursor to economic recession, suggesting a cautious outlook for the economy [7][9] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent inflation data has surprised to the downside, with January CPI growth at 0.17%, below expectations, and core CPI at 0.30% [12][13] - This unexpected decline in inflation is reshaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, with markets pricing in potential interest rate cuts by mid-2026 [13] - The Fed's recent bond purchasing operations have provided liquidity support, further benefiting short-term U.S. Treasuries [13]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy showed only slight growth in Q4 2025, reversing a significant contraction from the previous quarter, which supports Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's rationale for implementing aggressive fiscal spending policies [1] Economic Performance - Japan's real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the three months ending December, falling short of economists' median forecast of 1.6% [1] - Consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, increased by 0.1%, indicating weak domestic demand as households continue to cope with inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for four consecutive years [1] - Capital spending rose by 0.2%, reflecting some investment activity despite overall economic challenges [1] Economic Recovery Insights - The data released on February 16 highlights the uneven nature of economic recovery, with growth lacking strong driving forces aside from one-off factors [1] - Signs of economic weakness are unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from raising the benchmark interest rate later in 2026 [1]

美国经济多项关键指标同步向好，疫情暴发以来首次接近实现软着陆目标，即在不触发衰退的前提下将 通胀回落至美联储2%的政策目标。 最新公开的数据显示，1月剔除食品和能源的核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.5%，为2021年疫情推高物 价以来的最低水平。尽管该数据受去年秋季政府停摆形成的统计缺口影响存在技术性压低，但并未重现 过去三年年初打断通胀下行趋势的季节性价格压力。同期，1月失业率回落至4.3%，雇主新增就业人数 13万人，超出市场预期。 Payden & Rygel首席经济学家杰弗里・克利夫兰表示，"大家预想中最糟糕的灾难并没有发生。人们曾 对我说，'你要让通胀回到2%，唯一途径就是失业率大幅飙升。'" 不过当前并非宣布软着陆成功的时机。美联储青睐的核心个人消费支出价格指数涨幅接近3%，高于去 年4月录得的近期低点2.6%，仍远高于2%的政策目标。相关预测显示，随着去年4月加征关税的涨价效 应从港口传导至终端消费市场，2026年通胀下行进程或将放缓。 美联储官员的关注点已从抑制通胀再度转向警惕通胀在当前水平陷入停滞。费城联储主席安娜・保尔森 表示，"你别想让我宣布软着陆取得胜利。通胀必须达到2%。所以我们的任务 ...