Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut was anticipated by the market, but Powell's comments have dampened optimism regarding another cut in December [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Powell's statements reflect internal tensions within the Federal Reserve regarding further rate cuts, especially with inflation remaining high and exceeding the Fed's own targets [1] - Investors should expect inflation to remain elevated for an extended period, which will limit the extent of further monetary easing [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following Powell's remarks, the stock market experienced a pullback as investors had initially expected more rate cuts to provide a boost [1] - This reaction is seen as temporary, with the underlying driver of the stock market still being corporate earnings, which remain strong [1] - The company maintains a fully invested position in its portfolio despite the market fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, marking the second rate cut of the year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction [1][3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1 and will continue to monitor economic indicators for potential adjustments to monetary policy [2][3] - There is a notable division within the FOMC, with some members advocating for a larger rate cut of 50 basis points, indicating increasing internal disagreements [4][5] Group 2 - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance after reaching new highs, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the Fed's future rate cuts [6][8] - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $5 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, while other tech giants also saw gains [6][8] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced fluctuations, with individual Chinese stocks showing varied performance [8] Group 3 - International gold prices have declined, while oil prices have seen a slight increase, indicating a divergence in commodity market trends [9][10] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to experience high volatility due to a combination of reduced risk appetite and speculative sentiment [10] - Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to the nearing end of the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak and OPEC+ production increases [11]

10月30日，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上提到，市场预期的12月份再度降息"远未成定局"——当时 这一表态重创正在交易的风险资产。 鲍威尔补充道，10月降息与9月降息具有相同的风险管理逻辑，但未来将有所不同。他指出，美联储尚 未就12月会议作出决定，届时需要考虑不确定性。 鲍威尔称，FOMC中一些人认为现在是时候退一步了——倾向于暂停降息，而另一些委员则支持继续进 一步降低利率。如果没有获得新信息，且经济状况看起来没有变化，那么将有理由放慢降息步伐。 日内早些时候，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间，这是该行继9 月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 鲍威尔表示，现有数据表明前景未有太大变化，经济正在温和扩张，劳动力市场似乎逐步降温，通胀水 平仍略显偏高，"（联邦政府）停摆前的数据显示，经济可能正朝着更稳固的轨道发展。" 鲍威尔说道，政府停摆将暂时拖累经济活动，现有证据表明裁员和招聘人数仍然偏低，就业面临的下行 风险似乎有所上升。这一系列评论与稍前发布的决议声明一致。 谈及通胀，鲍威尔补充称，服务业通胀回落似乎仍在持续，大多数衡量长期 ...

来源：滚动播报 美股三大指数短线跳水，全部转跌。消息面上，鲍威尔发表讲话称12月再次降息并非板上钉钉。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and developments in the investment banking sector, highlighting the impact of recent economic changes on market dynamics and investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Recent economic changes have led to increased volatility in the financial markets, affecting investment strategies and risk assessments [1] - The investment banking sector is experiencing a shift in client demands, with a growing focus on sustainable and responsible investing [1] Group 2: Market Trends - There is a notable increase in mergers and acquisitions activity, driven by companies seeking to enhance their competitive positioning in a challenging economic environment [1] - The rise of technology in investment banking is transforming traditional practices, leading to greater efficiency and new service offerings [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Emerging markets are presenting new investment opportunities, as global investors look for growth outside of traditional markets [1] - The demand for innovative financial products is on the rise, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards more tailored solutions [1]

降息了。 美联储认为，现有指标表明，经济活动一直在以温和的速度扩张。今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，但截至8月仍处于低位；最近的指标与这些事态 发展是一致的。美联储强调，将坚定地致力于支持最大就业并将通货膨胀率恢复到2%的目标。 美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国9月CPI同比上涨3%，低于市场预期的3.1%，前值为2.9%；核心CPI同比上涨3%，低于市场预期的3.1%，前值为 3.1%。 同时，受美国政府"停摆"影响，本月非农数据暂未公布。美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布的数据显示，今年9月美国私营部门减少3.2万个就业岗位，出 现2023年3月以来最大降幅，远低于增加约5万个就业岗位的市场预期。ADP数据往往被称为"小非农"，对判断就业市场情况具有一定的参考性。 此外，美联储决定于12月1日完成其总证券持有量的减持(缩表)，12月1日结束缩表后，抵押贷款支持证券的赎回本金将被再次投资于短期国债。 在投票方面，美联储货币政策委员会大多数成员投票支持降息25个基点。斯蒂芬米兰投票降息50个基点，杰弗里斯密特投票不降息。 美联储年内最后一次议息会议将在12月9—10日举行。 当地时间10月29日，美联储结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve views interest rate cuts as a risk management measure according to Michelle, the global fixed income head at JPMorgan [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the Federal Reserve's approach to managing economic risks through monetary policy adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential announcement regarding interest rate cuts and the influence of newly appointed board member Milan [1] - Discussion on whether the Federal Reserve will end the process of "quantitative tightening" (QT) [1] - Consideration of the Federal Reserve's stance on President Trump's tariff and fiscal policies [1] - Examination of the Federal Reserve's discussions related to the federal government shutdown [1]

来源：滚动播报 据媒体分析报道，市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，将政策利率调整至3.75-4.00%。同时预期央行 将宣布结束量化紧缩（QT）。本次会议不会公布季度经济预期报告，因此焦点将主要放在鲍威尔的新 闻发布会上，预计美联储主席鲍威尔将再次将降息定性为风险管理举措，并在缺乏关键经济数据的情况 下，不透露过多信息以维持市场预期稳定。当前市场预期美联储10月降息板上钉钉，12月降息的概率也 接近100%，2026年将累计降息117个基点，高于美联储预计的75个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][3][4] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a rate cut, but there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [3][4] - Analysts expect that the Fed will provide more guidance on future policy directions during the press conference, particularly regarding employment risks and inflation pressures [4][8] Group 2: Economic Data and Labor Market - Recent private sector data indicates a decline in private sector jobs, with ADP reporting a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, reflecting a weakening labor market [4][8] - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials express concerns about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-on-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [4][9] Group 3: Balance Sheet and Quantitative Tightening - There is speculation that the Fed may announce an end to its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) during this meeting, as recent trends show a decline in bank reserves [10][13] - Major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America have adjusted their forecasts, suggesting that the Fed may halt its asset reduction process due to rising borrowing costs in the dollar financing market [10][15]