智通财经APP获悉，得益于投资者正在权衡不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势以及美国进一步降息的前景，本周 二，黄金价格再次创下历史新高，升破4490美元/盎司，这也是今年以来黄金价格第50个交易日刷新历史纪 录。 而在金价屡创新高的同时，黄金股也正暗藏着一场估值逻辑的重构；港股市场中，一批手握资源增量的成长型 矿企，正等待着市场的认知觉醒。 金价的隐藏天花板 回顾黄金的长周期涨幅，足以打破当前"金价已见顶"的认知。 上世70-80年代，布雷顿森林体系崩溃引爆黄金牛市，金价从35美元/盎司飙升至850美元，涨幅达18 倍；2000- 2011年，全球流动性宽松与地缘风险交织，金价从250美元涨至1921美元，涨幅5.5倍。而从2019年至今，金价 从1500美元左右升至4490美元，涨幅仅不到2倍 —— 对比前两轮黄金牛市，当前的涨幅不过是序曲。 若以货币信用的锚定逻辑测算，金价的潜在空间更具冲击力。有机构测算，按全球38万亿美元美债与22万吨黄 金存量计算，合理金价应达5400美元/盎司；若以每年新增2 万亿美元美债、3600 吨黄金供给的增速推算，长 期合理金价甚至可达1.7万美元/盎司。 黄金作为非信用资产的核心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surpassed the $4,500 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 70% since 2025, outperforming most global assets. The sustainability of this bullish trend in gold as 2026 approaches is questioned [2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current gold bull market is not limited to 2025, having started its upward cycle in 2016. Prior to 2025, gold prices rose for two consecutive years, with increases of 13.45% in 2023 and 27.39% in 2024 [2]. - In 2025, gold prices accelerated, breaking through significant thresholds of $3,000, $3,500, $4,000, and $4,500 within a year, marking the highest annual increase in years [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical tensions have heightened safe-haven demand for gold, significantly contributing to rising prices. The expectation of increasing global inflation, alongside the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, has positioned gold as a primary beneficiary [3]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank adding gold for 13 consecutive months. As of late November, China's gold reserves stood at approximately 74.12 million ounces, reflecting both asset allocation needs and strategic significance [4]. Group 3: Changes in Global Asset Allocation - The ongoing increase in gold holdings by major central banks indicates a profound shift in global asset allocation structures. As of the second quarter of 2025, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves was about 56.32%, continuing a downward trend, while gold's share was approximately 24% and on the rise [5]. - The decline in the dollar's dominance in foreign exchange reserves suggests a potential shift in the global monetary landscape, with the credibility of the dollar's credit system facing significant challenges [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Gold - Gold's strategic influence is notably increasing, underpinning the current bull market. The weakening of the dollar's credit system is a key factor driving gold's enhanced international status [7]. - Historical patterns indicate that gold bull markets typically last around ten years. The current bull market, which began in 2016, will reach a critical juncture in 2026, raising questions about whether it will mark a turning point [7].

2025.12. 23 本文字数：2793，阅读时长大约4分钟 "由于股价短期涨幅较快，估值也有较为明显提升，交易拥挤度快速提升，市场资金对资源股应对成 本等压力，未来盈利兑现相对谨慎。长期看，黄金股股价走势跟金价走势具备趋同性，但是黄金矿业 股的走势，不仅受到金价的影响，还与黄金矿业公司的业绩以及股市流动性变化强相关，因此波动性 更大一些。"他认为，对一般投资者来说，投资黄金ETF更适合纯金价敞口的表达，这也更适合把握 政策与利率节奏。 光大证券国际策略师伍礼贤表示，A股主要金矿股较10月初高位仍有差距，相对国际金价表现滞后， 估值修复空间尚存，预计2026年伦敦现货金价或升至每盎司4950美元，黄金矿业股中长期配置价值 凸显，相较于紧贴现货走势的黄金ETF，金矿股具备企业杠杆与业绩弹性，在金价上行阶段通常有超 额收益；而黄金ETF波动较低，更适合追求稳健、不愿承担个股风险的投资者。 作者 | 第一财经 李隽 12月23日，现货黄金价格再创历史新高，引发金矿股集体上涨。 山东黄金（600547.SH）涨幅领先，上涨近7%。招金矿业（01818.HK）上涨2.79%。灵宝黄金 （03330.HK）上涨0.53 ...

Core Insights - The spot gold price has surpassed $4,400 per ounce for the first time in 2025, with a cumulative increase of nearly 68%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 17% rise during the same period, solidifying gold's status as a top-performing asset in 2025 [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The underlying logic for the rise in gold prices is attributed to a potential crisis in the credibility of the US dollar, which is seen as a driving force for increased gold allocations by central banks, institutions, and individual investors [2] - Key factors affecting gold prices include US monetary policy represented by real interest rates, international geopolitical conflicts, market dynamics of supply and demand, and other special factors [2] Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - Institutional investors maintain an optimistic outlook for 2026, with predictions influenced by central bank gold purchases and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Various macroeconomic scenarios predict gold price fluctuations ranging from a 5% decline to a 30% increase, depending on economic conditions [3][5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The trend of central banks purchasing gold has continued into 2025, with an expected total purchase volume of 750 to 900 tons for the year, indicating a broadening participation beyond developing countries [6][7] - Despite high gold prices potentially reducing the quantity of gold purchased, the total monetary investment by central banks remains substantial, reinforcing gold's recognition as a reserve asset [7] Group 4: Market Observations - In the Chinese market, there is a stark contrast in consumer behavior, with a surge in physical gold investment demand while gold jewelry consumption is under pressure due to high prices and tax policy changes [8] - Retail investment demand for gold in China has surpassed jewelry demand for the first time since the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [8] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to view gold as a strategic asset rather than a speculative tool, suggesting a long-term allocation of 5% to 15% of investable assets to gold [9] - New investors are encouraged to adopt a gradual investment approach rather than waiting for ideal price points, emphasizing the importance of safety in gold investments [9]

12月23日：上交易日周一（12月22日）：国际黄金强势反弹攀升收阳，如期突破新高以及趋势线阻力压 制，这暗示后市的看涨空间进一步打开，将迎接看涨至5000美元关口甚至更高的预期位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4340.19美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内低点4337.64美元，之后则持续反弹 回升，欧美盘时段虽有回撤，但只有10美金左右，幅度较小，趋势仍未上行，且一路延续到盘尾收盘， 动力持稳，在触及日内高点4449.01美元，最终收于4443.55美元，日振幅111.37美元，收涨103.36美元， 涨幅2.38%。 影响上，受到美国总统特朗普上周宣布"封锁"所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，加剧了市场紧张情绪， 避险需求激增。以及市场传言特朗普可能在下周提名新的美联储主席，并预期继任者可能更倾向于降 息，再加上美元走弱大幅回落收复前几日涨幅等等，共同推动金价反弹攀升走强。 展望今日周二（12月23日）：国际黄金开盘多头继续走强，延续昨日反弹动力，其突破阻力压制后导致 的顺势跟进买盘继续推进，以及美元指数开盘的继续走低，也对其产生利好，整体来看，美元指数走势 再度转空，周图及月图的看空预期再度加大，故此将会继续 ...

黄金疯了！金价再创历史新高，年内飙升68%，接下来是上车还是下车？ 地缘政治风险方面，2026年全球地缘政治周期或仅仅还在上半场，俄乌冲突、贸易纷争、中东局势等不 确定性因素仍可能持续发酵，为黄金提供避险溢价。 2025年12月23日，国际金价再度刷新历史纪录，现货黄金价格一举突破4500美元/盎司整数关口，年内 累计涨幅高达68%，成为全球金融市场最耀眼的"明星"。这一波凌厉的涨势不仅让黄金投资者欢呼雀 跃，也让无数观望者陷入纠结：是继续追高"上车"，还是获利了结"下车"？要回答这个问题，需从黄金 暴涨的底层逻辑、未来走势的支撑因素，以及投资者的风险偏好与资金配置策略三方面综合分析。 一、黄金暴涨的底层逻辑：多重引擎共振 本轮黄金牛市并非单一因素驱动，而是多重引擎共同作用的结果。从宏观经济层面看，美联储货币政策 转向成为关键催化剂。2025年9月，美联储正式开启降息周期，标志着全球流动性环境发生重大转变。 降息降低了黄金的持有成本，同时削弱了美元的吸引力，推动资金流向黄金等避险资产。此外，美国政 府停摆危机、就业市场降温、通胀数据回落等因素，进一步强化了市场对美联储持续宽松的预期，为金 价上涨提供了流动性基 ...

摘要今日周二(12月23日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于1015元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 1015.45元/克，涨幅0.98%，最高上探至1015.34元/克，最低触及1004.41元/克。目前来看，现货黄金短 线偏向看涨走势。 摩根大通在最新展望中指出，关税政策的不确定性，叠加交易所交易基金(ETF)与各国央行的强劲需 求，将在2025年推动黄金突破每盎司4000美元，创历史新高。而中国保险巨头及加密货币领域的新兴需 求，更可能助力金价在2026年底前站上5055美元。 该行认为，在经历一年的需求爆发与价格飙升后，黄金牛市仍将持续，核心驱动因素依旧坚挺。摩根大 通全球大宗商品策略主管娜塔莎.卡内娃表示："此轮涨势并非一帆风顺，但我们相信推动金价中枢上移 的趋势远未耗尽。官方储备与投资者多元化配置黄金的长期逻辑仍有拓展空间，预计到2026年底，需求 将把价格推向5000美元。" 美元走弱、美国利率下行及地缘与经济不确定性，是此轮上涨的传统助力，黄金既对冲货币贬值，又在 无息环境下与国债、货币基金竞争吸引力。该行依据季度投资者与央行需求吨数与价格的关联建模预 测：2026年季度需求均值约585吨(含19 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), reaching a new high, reflecting a significant upward trend since its low in April 2023, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF has increased by 89.68% since its low on April 8, 2023, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite's 26.51% and CSI 300's 28.48% during the same period [1]. - The non-ferrous metal index has shown varied performance over the past five years, with annual returns of 35.84% in 2020, 35.89% in 2021, -19.22% in 2022, -10.43% in 2023, and 2.96% in 2024 [3][8]. Group 2: Leading Stocks - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector include: - Bowei Alloy, up 8.52% - Shandong Gold, up 8.25% - Yunnan Zhenye, up 6.84% - Nanshan Aluminum, up 5.81% - Xiamen Tungsten, up 5.93% - Shengxin Lithium Energy, up 5.08% [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue its bullish trend, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, as well as the explosive demand for energy metals such as lithium and cobalt [5][6]. - The current gold bull market is supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and a re-evaluation of gold's value as a non-sovereign ultimate payment method, with predictions of gold prices reaching $4,500 to $4,900 per ounce by 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), reaching a new high since its listing, reflecting a significant increase since its low point in April [1][9] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 23, the non-ferrous metal sector saw a rise, with Huabao ETF's price increasing over 2.3% and currently up 1.89% [1][9] - Since its low on April 8, Huabao ETF has accumulated a rise of 89.68%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (26.51%) and CSI 300 (28.48%) [1][9] Group 2: Index Performance - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metal Index has shown varied performance over the past five years: 35.84% in 2020, 35.89% in 2021, -19.22% in 2022, -10.43% in 2023, and 2.96% in 2024 [3][11] - Key stocks leading the gains include: - Bowei Alloy and Shandong Gold both up over 8% - Yunnan Zinc Industry up over 6% - Nanshan Aluminum, Xiamen Tungsten, and Shengxin Lithium Energy all up over 5% [3][11] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold has surged nearly 68% this year, driven by three main factors: 1. Central banks' continuous gold purchases since 2022 as a strategic reserve 2. Geopolitical uncertainties prompting a shift away from traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar 3. Market re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and US debt issues [4][12] - Analysts predict that the current gold bull market may be in its "mid-stage," with UBS forecasting gold prices to reach $4,500 per ounce by June 2026, and Goldman Sachs projecting a 14% increase to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 [5][13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its bull market, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities optimistic about a comprehensive bull market, and CITIC Securities highlighting ongoing investment interest in commodities [6][13] - Key areas of focus include: 1. Industrial metals like copper and aluminum with constrained supply and recovering demand 2. Energy metals such as lithium and cobalt benefiting from surging demand for energy storage and power batteries 3. Strategic assets like gold and rare earths [6][13]

摩根大通对金价预测，建立在投资者需求持续强劲、央行购金需求维持在高位的基础上。该行预计2026 年这两类核心买家的季度需求量平均将达585吨，其中央行的季度需求约为190吨，金条和金币的季度需 求约为330吨，还有ETF和期货的需求。 关税政策的不确定性以及交易所交易基金（ETF）和各国央行的强劲需求，在2025年将黄金价格推升至 每盎司4000美元以上的历史新高。 不过，金价在经历今年8月至10月的急涨后，曾遭遇了十二年来最大的单日抛售，摩根大通的量化团队 曾警告短期风险，而摩根大通全球大宗商品研究团队在10月22日发布的报告中明确表示，当前的回调和 盘整是健康的，并不会改变其对黄金"多年结构性牛市"的根本看法。 同期，摩根大通金属团队上调了长期预测目标，2026年底金价上看5055美元，其核心逻辑建立在对未来 需求持续强劲的预判之上。其模型预计，到2026年，投资者需求（包括ETF、期货、金条和金币）与央 行购买的总和将达到平均每季度566吨。 12月23日，COMEX黄金升破4500美元/盎司，现货黄金升破4468美元/盎司，均创历史新高。 国内品牌金视克价冲上1400元，周生生足金饰品标价1403元/ ...