每日晨报 2025年6月11日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 周二美股三大指数均上行，纳指领涨美股大 模 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 策略:稳定币概念股投资展望。稳定币概念股投资展望:(1)自中国香港《稳 定币条例草案》通过以来, [HK]稳定币指数(887779.WI)经历了先涨后跌的 行情,成交活跃度大幅提升。5月21日至6月2日,IHK]稳定币指数累计上 涨了 84.77%, 但 6 月 3 日至 6 月 6 日回调了 15.86%, 因此 5 月 21 日至 6 月 6 日累计上涨 55.47%。 (2) A 股稳定币指数 (8841912.WI) 行情略微滞后于 港股稳定币指数，波动幅度也小于港股。5 月 26 日至 6 月 5 日，A 股稳定币 指数累计上涨 35.51%, 6 月 6 目回调 2.83%。 (3 ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - Zhixing Technology (01274) rose nearly 5% after being designated by a leading brand for commercial logistics vehicle platformization, indicating a second growth curve for robotics [1] - Stablecoin concept stocks continued to rise, with China Everbright Holdings (00165) up over 5%, Lianlian Digital (02598) up over 3%, and ZhongAn Online (06060) up over 2% [1] - Solar stocks collectively surged as the SNEC Solar Exhibition commenced, with New Special Energy (01799) up over 6%, GCL-Poly Energy (03800) up over 4%, and Flat Glass Group (06865) up over 2% [1] - Automotive stocks saw gains, with BYD (01211) and NIO (09866) both rising over 2% as car manufacturers announced a "60-day billing period" [1] - New Qian'an (02573) experienced a decline of over 15% on its second day of trading, as it is a producer of food-grade glycine and sucralose [1] - New Giao RV (0805), dubbed the "first RV stock," rose over 8% following a strong first annual report, projecting a main business revenue of 799.2 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [1] - Dongyue Group (00189) increased nearly 3% as refrigerant prices continued to rise, with institutions optimistic about the company's product profit margins [1] - Tsugami Machine Tool China (01651) saw an early morning rise of over 5%, currently up nearly 4%, as machine tools are expected to benefit from the robotics industry development [1] Group 2: US Stock Market Highlights - Tesla rose 5.67% as it prepares to launch Robotaxi, recovering most of the losses incurred from last week's controversy involving Musk and Trump [3] - Alphabet (Google A) increased over 1% amid reports that OpenAI plans to collaborate with Google Cloud for its growing computing needs, indicating a diversification of its supply chain [3] - Circle (CRCL.US), the "first stablecoin stock," fell over 8% after a significant three-day gain of over 270%, with analysts suggesting the stock is currently overvalued [3] - NIO (NIO.US) rose nearly 6% as CEO Li Bin anticipates a business turning point in the second quarter [3] - QuantumScape (QSG.US) surged nearly 33%, achieving profitability for eight consecutive quarters [3] - Nanwei Semiconductor (NVTS.US) increased nearly 11%, with a cumulative rise of 164% in May following a partnership announcement for hydrogen fuel cell charging [3] - SharpLink Gaming (SBET.US), a cryptocurrency concept stock, rose over 15%, while the broader cryptocurrency sector experienced declines [3] Group 3: Other Notable Movements - UBS (UBS.US) fell over 2% due to new stricter capital regulations imposed by the Swiss government [4] - Grab (GRAB.US), a Southeast Asian ride-hailing and food delivery platform, dropped over 6% as it plans to raise $1.25 billion through convertible bonds for strategic flexibility, including potential acquisitions [4] - Merck (MRK.US) rose 2.55% after its RSV vaccine for infants received approval from the US FDA [4]

6月10日，港股午后突发跳水，三大指数皆转跌。恒生科技指数收跌0.76%，恒生指数、国企指数分别下跌0.08%及0.15%。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技指数 | While A | 5392.19 | -41.04 | -0.76% | | 800700 | Vario | | | | | 恒生指数 | MM | 24162.87 | -18.56 | -0.08% | | 800000 | www | | | | | 国企指数 | Man www | 8767.36 | -12.77 | -0.15% | | 800100 | | | | | 盘面上，大型科技股集体走弱，半导体股、军工股下跌明显，稳定币概念股午后持续下跌，手游股、中资券商股、家电股、纸业股多数表现弱势。市场动 荡，黄金股午后持续攀升，稀土概念股全天强势，创新药概念股持续上涨，内银股表现活跃，农业银行、工商银行等多股创新高。此外，新琪安、容大科技 首日上市收涨21.4%及42%。 稳定币概念股走低，移卡跌超4%，华兴资本控股跌超3%，中国光 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results as of June 9, with the Dow Jones down 0.24%, the Nasdaq up 0.44%, and the S&P 500 up 0.11% [1] - Warner Bros. Discovery saw a significant increase of over 8% as the company plans to split into two media companies [1] - Circle, referred to as the "first stock of stablecoin," continued to rise sharply, gaining nearly 15% after its listing [1] - Space-related stocks experienced notable gains, with AST SpaceMobile and Redwire both up over 14%, and Rocket Lab up over 11% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for May indicated an addition of 139,000 jobs, which, while the lowest since February, exceeded market expectations of 130,000 [5] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. remained steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, alleviating concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market [5] Company News - Analysts on Wall Street believe that the recent tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, referred to as "Tesla-Trump split," will not have a long-term negative impact on Tesla's business, including its ambitions for autonomous ride-hailing [6] - Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein stated that the relationship between Musk and Trump affects Tesla's stock and investor sentiment, but does not significantly impact Tesla's actual business operations [6]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive trend with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.63% to close at 24,181.43 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index also saw significant gains of 1.74% and 2.78% respectively, marking a technical bull market as they rose over 20% from April lows [1] - The trading volume for the day reached 245.83 billion HKD, indicating strong market activity [1] Blue Chip Performance - Kuaishou-W (01024) led the blue-chip stocks with a 5.58% increase, closing at 62.4 HKD, contributing 16.34 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable performers included WuXi Biologics (02269) up 5.48%, SMIC (00981) up 5.1%, while Budweiser APAC (01876) and Zijin Mining (02899) experienced declines of 2.06% and 1.64% respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks collectively rose, with Kuaishou increasing over 5% and Meituan and JD.com both rising over 4% [3] - The innovative drug sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Eucure Biopharma-B (01477) up 19.45% and King’s Ray Biotech (01548) up 16.14% [3][4] - The Chinese securities sector saw a broad increase, with firms like Everbright Securities (06178) rising 5.27% and GF Securities (01776) up 4.66% [4] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the transfer of control for eight companies to Central Huijin, which may lead to a new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry [5] Consumer and Technology Trends - The upcoming Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC 2025) is expected to drive interest in consumer electronics and related stocks, with companies like AAC Technologies (01415) and Sunny Optical (02382) showing gains [6] - New consumption stocks also performed well, with companies like Bruker (00325) rising 22.34% [6][7] Commodity Movements - Gold stocks faced declines, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 3.99%, influenced by stable U.S. employment data which suggests the Federal Reserve may maintain its current interest rate stance [7] Notable Stock Movements - China Rare Earth (00769) surged 60% following news of eased export controls on rare earths, reflecting strong market interest [8] - Huicai Holdings (01180) experienced a dramatic drop of 47.54% before being suspended, indicating volatility in the entertainment equipment sector [9]

Group 1 - The concept stocks related to stablecoins are experiencing a rebound, with Hengbao Co., Ltd. (002104) hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other companies such as Chutianlong (003040) and Dongxin Peace (002017) also previously reached their daily limit up, showcasing a trend in the sector [1] - Companies like Xiongdi Technology (300546), Yuyin Co., Ltd. (002177), and Hailian Jinhui (002537) are quickly following suit with significant price increases [1]

- Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The GRU factor model leverages transaction information to capture excess returns; Model Construction Process: The GRU factor model is built using minute-level volume and price data processed through a GRU deep learning network. The model dynamically adjusts based on historical training data to adapt to market conditions; Model Evaluation: The GRU factor model has shown strong performance in short cycles but is less effective in longer cycles[7][32][37] - Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The diffusion index model is based on the principle of price momentum; Model Construction Process: The diffusion index model tracks the momentum of industry indices. It ranks industries based on their diffusion index values, which are calculated from price trends. The model suggests industry allocations based on these rankings; Model Evaluation: The diffusion index model performs well in capturing upward trends but may fail during market reversals[6][26][36] Model Backtest Results - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 0.82%, Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Index: -0.58%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -4.71%[35] - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.22%, Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Index: 0.82%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -0.81%[30] Factor Rankings - GRU Factor Rankings (as of June 6, 2025): Top 6 industries: Banking (1.41), Real Estate (1.21), Coal (1.08), Oil & Petrochemicals (0.61), Electric Utilities (0.42), Steel (-0.13); Bottom 6 industries: Electric Equipment & New Energy (-19.92), Media (-18.56), Comprehensive Finance (-17.89), Computers (-15.93), Non-Banking Finance (-15.92), Automotive (-14.28)[7][33] - Diffusion Index Rankings (as of June 6, 2025): Top 6 industries: Comprehensive Finance (1.0), Comprehensive (0.998), Non-Banking Finance (0.997), Banking (0.969), Media (0.953), Computers (0.942); Bottom 6 industries: Coal (0.166), Oil & Petrochemicals (0.268), Non-Ferrous Metals (0.566), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry & Fishery (0.594), Electric Utilities (0.624), Building Materials (0.71)[6][27]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04% at 3385.36 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.19% and 0.45% respectively[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.48% to 23792.54 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both down 0.63%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was HKD 235.62 billion[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%[20] - The U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield increasing by 11.64 basis points to 4.0365% following the positive employment data[14] Trade Relations - U.S. and China officials are set to hold a new round of trade talks focusing on rare earth issues, following a recent phone call between the leaders of both countries[14] - President Trump has called for a 1% interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, citing that Europe has already cut rates multiple times[14] Market Sentiment - The strong U.S. employment data has led traders to reduce their expectations for interest rate cuts this year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September now estimated at around 70%[14] - The market is reacting cautiously to the ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties, with employers reportedly "stockpiling labor" amid concerns over tariffs and economic slowdown[14]

Core Viewpoint - Despite external negative disturbances, internal support forces are strong, limiting the downward space of stock indices, with a high probability of short-term index fluctuations [5] Group 1: Market Trends - The solid-state battery sector is gaining strength, with companies like Yinglian Co. and Dexin Technology hitting the daily limit [2] - The CRO sector in pharmaceuticals is also performing well, with companies like Lianhua Technology reaching the daily limit [5] - The agricultural pesticide sector continues its strong performance, with Changqing Co. achieving consecutive gains [5] Group 2: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests avoiding macro disturbances and focusing on industrial trends, indicating a transitional phase before a potential bull market in the third to fourth quarter [3] - CITIC Jiantou emphasizes the importance of tracking capital flows and industry sentiment in June, a key period for dividend distribution, to identify high-dividend investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the banking and securities sectors [11]. Core Insights - The implementation of the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" on August 1, 2025, is expected to boost the financial sector, particularly benefiting banks and securities firms involved in the stablecoin ecosystem [2][14]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for banks, securities, and insurance sectors, with banks being prioritized for investment opportunities [2][14]. - The anticipated reduction in life insurance preset rates in Q3 2025 is expected to resolve the cost-revenue mismatch in insurance products, enhancing sales momentum [2][41]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, which will regulate stablecoin activities and establish a licensing system [3][17]. - Standard Chartered Bank is participating in a sandbox test for stablecoin issuers, while ZA Bank is the first digital bank in Hong Kong to provide reserve banking services for stablecoin issuers [3][18]. - The banking index rose by 1.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with notable gains from banks like Nanjing Bank (+11.61%) and CITIC Bank (+5.65%) [15][16]. - Recommended quality stocks include Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) [4][46]. Securities Sector - The report notes a surge in interest in stablecoin concepts, which has positively impacted the non-bank financial sector, particularly securities firms [2][38]. - Several securities firms have announced a reduction in margin interest rates to 0.05%, following the decrease in deposit rates by major banks [39][40]. - The approval of equity changes for multiple securities firms by the CSRC is expected to enhance market sentiment and provide structural opportunities [3][38]. Insurance Sector - The report anticipates a likely reduction in life insurance preset rates in Q3 2025, which is expected to improve the cost-revenue dynamics of insurance products [41][44]. - The insurance sector has shown resilience, with stocks like New China Life Insurance rising by 12% [41]. - Recommended insurance stocks include China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and AIA Group [42][46].