Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [4] - The coking coal price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [6] - The silicon manganese price follows the steel trend [7] - The ferrosilicon price follows the steel trend [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The thread's apparent demand is warming up, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. The hot - rolled demand is rising, production is flat, and inventory has decreased. Iron - water production is high, and downstream capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are high. The market may be strong in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are high and stronger than last year, while domestic arrivals are below the annual average, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Demand: Iron - water production is falling, and steel mills' profitability is low. There is a production - cut pressure. The market may fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - There is an expectation of a third price increase. Coking profit is average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Inventory is almost unchanged. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [4] Coking Coal - There is short - term production - cut pressure on iron - water due to environmental protection in Tangshan. Coal mine production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Production has slightly decreased, inventory has slightly decreased, and the price follows the steel trend [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Export demand is stable, and the price follows the steel trend [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is volatile in the short term, with macro sentiment providing support but weak demand expectations limiting the upside potential [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3][5] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets follow the steel trend [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel's apparent demand continues to recover but is still weak year-on-year, production has rebounded, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - Hot-rolled coil demand continues to rise, production is basically flat, and inventory has declined [2] - Iron water production remains high overall, but downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated [2] - Domestic demand is still weak overall, while steel exports remain high [2] Iron Ore - Global shipments are at a high level and stronger than the same period last year, while domestic arrivals have fallen below the annual average level, and port inventory is on an accumulating trend [2] - Iron water production has gradually declined from a high level, and steel mills' profitability has shrunk to a low level this year [2] - Policy benefits are expected, and market sentiment has improved [2] Coke - The second round of price increases for coking has been fully implemented [3] - Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly [3] - Coke inventory has hardly changed, and downstream procurement is mainly to consume inventory [3] - The market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas, and prices may be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - Production at coking coal mines has decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions have improved [5] - Total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and production-end inventory has decreased slightly [5] - The market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas, and prices may be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5] Silicomanganese - Iron water production remains at a high level, but this week's Tangshan production restrictions may lead to a further decline [6] - Weekly production of silicomanganese has declined slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [6] - Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [6] Ferrosilicon - Iron water production remains at a high level, but this week's Tangshan production restrictions may lead to a further decline [7] - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and on-balance sheet inventory has continued to decline [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Manganese Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to continue its short - term rebound, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices may be more likely to rise than fall [3][5] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices mainly follow the trend of steel [6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The futures market rebounded significantly today. Thread apparent demand continued to pick up but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory declined [1] - Iron - making water production remained high overall, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needed to be alleviated [1] - From September data, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was still weak overall, and steel exports remained high [1] - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and increased environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan improved market sentiment [1] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments increased at a high level and were stronger than the same period last year. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, Australian shipments to China decreased, and domestic arrivals fell below the annual average [2] - On the demand side, iron - making water production gradually declined from a high level, the steel mill profitability rate shrank to a low level for the year, and there was still pressure for production cuts due to factors such as Tangshan's production restrictions [2] - Positive progress in the new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the convening of important domestic meetings led to some policy - friendly expectations and improved market sentiment [2] Coke - The price rose during the day. The second round of coke price increases was fully implemented. Coking coal prices rose faster, resulting in average coking profits and a slight decrease in daily production [3] - Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers made small - scale on - demand purchases and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [3] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, steel profit levels were average, and there was strong pressure to reduce raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price rose during the day. Tangshan carried out about 4 days of strict environmental protection - related production restrictions this week, and there was still some room for a decline in iron - making water production, but the impact duration was short [5] - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, transaction prices rose, and terminal inventory increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly as safety inspections approached in major coal - producing areas [5] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [6] - Weekly manganese silicon production decreased slightly, production remained at a high level, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good [6] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure with weak domestic demand and fluctuating sentiment, while exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be prone to rise due to certain expectations, despite pressure from steel mills' profit margins. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as production, demand, and external trade frictions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to recover but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory decreased. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain still fermented repeatedly. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. The market sentiment cooled, and the futures prices were under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. The global supply was strong, and the domestic arrival volume declined from a high level. Port inventory increased significantly this week. On the demand side, molten iron production declined from a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to shrink. With the end of the peak season and the contraction of steel mill profits, there was still pressure for molten iron production cuts. The market had certain expectations for policy benefits, and sentiment improved. It is expected that the short - term trend will be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices rose today. Molten iron production remained high, and the steel - making profit level was average, suppressing the coke price increase rate. The second round of price increases for coking started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers purchased on a small - scale as needed and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices. The coke futures prices were at a premium, and the price was likely to be prone to rise [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose today. Recently, there was political turmoil in Mongolia, and the market was worried about the stability of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and transaction prices increased. Terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. With safety inspections approaching in major coal - producing areas, production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level, providing support for raw materials. However, steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices [6] Silicomanganese - Today's silicomanganese prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Weekly silicomanganese production decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Silicomanganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore prices were boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. The impact of external trade frictions should be continuously monitored [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. The impact of external trade frictions should be concerned [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand, policy expectations, and cost support, with the price rebounding but limited by demand [1] - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, due to factors like supply and demand changes and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by downstream demand and cost expectations [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are driven by steel, with overall good demand and attention to external trade frictions [6][7] Summaries by Related Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. Thread demand recovered this week but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand rose, production was flat, and inventory decreased. Iron - water production remained high, but downstream acceptance was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. From September data, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebounded due to policy expectations and cost increases, but the weak demand limited the rebound space [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures were volatile and strong. Supply was strong globally, domestic arrivals declined from a high level, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Demand - side iron - water production was gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure to cut production would increase in the future. With expectations of policy benefits, the market sentiment improved. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price hikes in the coking industry started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, carbon supply was abundant, and the high - level iron - water production supported the price. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Due to political unrest in Mongolia, the stability of Mongolian coal imports was a concern. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and prices rose. Terminal inventory increased, and total inventory rose slightly. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Weekly production declined slightly, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Magnesium production increased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply remained high, and inventory continued to decline [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon are all rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has rebounded after adjustment, but the rhythm remains volatile, influenced by factors such as Sino-US relations and domestic demand - stimulating policies [2] - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be a strong - side oscillation [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4][5] - The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are moving up in an oscillatory manner, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The demand for thread steel has rebounded month - on - month but remains weak year - on - year, with production declining and inventory decreasing; the demand for hot - rolled coil has also increased, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down [2] - Iron - making production has slightly decreased but remains high, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain persists [2] - In September, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have increased month - on - month and are stronger than the same period last year, domestic arrivals have dropped from a high level, and port inventories have increased significantly [3] - On the demand side, iron - making production is gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure of production reduction in the future is increasing [3] - There are concerns about external trade frictions and negative feedback in the industrial chain, but there are also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The second round of price increases for coking has started. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased [4] - Coke inventories continue to decline slightly. Downstream purchases are on a small - scale and as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and high - level iron - making production provides support. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [4] Coking Coal - The output of coking coal mines has slightly increased, spot auction transactions have improved, and transaction prices have mostly risen. Terminal inventories have increased [5] - Total coking coal inventories have slightly increased month - on - month, and production - end inventories have slightly decreased. Post - holiday production has not increased significantly [5] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and high - level iron - making production provides support. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [5] Silicon Manganese - Attention is paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price is 5,800 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan/ton decrease from the September transaction price [6] - Iron - making production remains high on the demand side. Weekly silicon manganese production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and inventories have slightly decreased [6] - Manganese ore shipping quotes have slightly increased month - on - month, and spot ores have been boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories have slightly decreased, and contradictions are not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - Attention is paid to steel tender - related news. Iron - making production remains high on the demand side [7] - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has slightly increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has slightly increased marginally [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories are continuously decreasing [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Coke and coking coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is generally weak, with the overall domestic demand remaining weak and the rebound momentum of the market being insufficient. It is expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain still existing, but there are also certain expectations for policy benefits [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be more prone to rising than falling, with relatively strong support near the previous lows [4][5] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are in a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions and steel tender information [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The daily market fluctuated mainly. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly month - on - month but remained weak year - on - year. The output continued to decline, and the inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, with a slight decline in output and a slowdown in inventory accumulation. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly in September, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. The overall domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebound momentum was insufficient, and it was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The market fluctuated on the day. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level but was still stronger than the annual average and the same period last year, and the port inventory increased significantly. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel improved month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly from a high level. As the terminal peak season ended and the steel mill profits shrank to a low level, the pressure on iron - making water production cuts increased. There were still concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain due to repeated external trade frictions, but there were also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The second round of price increase for coking started. The coking profit was average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Currently, downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities and mainly consumed inventory, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coke market price was slightly higher than the spot price, and there were expectations for an increase in coke costs due to the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices mainly increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The output did not increase significantly after the holiday. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coking coal market price was slightly lower than the Mongolian coal price, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [5] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing information of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared with the transaction price in September. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The weekly output of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The long - term demand was still good. The quoted price of manganese ore during the shipping period increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [6] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the steel tender information. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]

Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weak internal demand but high exports, with the market stabilizing but lacking upward momentum [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by high iron - water levels and safety production expectations [4][5] - The ferrosilicon manganese market has high demand and relatively stable supply, with attention to external trade frictions [6] - The ferrosilicon market has overall good demand and continuous inventory reduction, also affected by external trade frictions [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread: Surface demand rebounded month - on - month but was still weak year - on - year, production declined, and inventory decreased [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand increased, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [2] - Overall: Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained high, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain persisted [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year, and domestic arrivals decreased from a high level but were still strong [3] - Demand: Iron - water production decreased slightly from a high level, and the pressure for future production cuts increased [3] - Market: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about trade frictions and expectations of policy benefits [3] Coke - Supply: Coking production decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline slightly [4] - Demand: Downstream procurement was on a small - scale and on - demand basis, mainly consuming inventory [4] - Market: Prices were likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with support at previous lows and expected cost increases [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Coal mine production increased slightly, and total inventory increased slightly month - on - month [5] - Demand: High iron - water levels provided support for raw materials [5] - Market: Prices were likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with expectations of safety production inspections [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Supply: Weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] - Demand: Iron - water production remained high, and expected demand was still good [6] - Market: Attention was paid to the bidding price of a large steel mill in the north, and the impact of external trade frictions [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply remained at a high level, and inventory continued to be depleted [7] - Demand: Iron - water production remained high, export demand was about 30,000 tons, and secondary demand increased slightly [7] - Market: Attention was paid to steel tender news and the impact of external trade frictions [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The mid - term trend of the crude oil market remains under pressure, but short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may shift to weak oscillations [2]. - Precious metals have a solid long - term upward logic but extremely high short - term volatility risks, so it is advisable to reduce positions and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - For various non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends and trading strategies, such as copper and aluminum showing different price characteristics and trading suggestions [4][5]. - Steel products' market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and trade relations, with a complex trend [13]. - The shipping market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the future trend depends on factors such as the implementation of price increases and geopolitical situations [19]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading strategies, such as fuel oil and asphalt [20][21]. - Agricultural products' market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations, and different products show different trends and trading suggestions, such as soybeans and oils [35][36]. - The financial market, including stock indexes and bonds, is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, economic data, and trade relations, and the market trends are complex [47][48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to decline. The Brent December contract fell 1.21%. The mid - term trend is under pressure due to increased surplus forecasts and geopolitical easing, but short - term downward momentum is weakening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: On Friday, precious metals finally adjusted. Gold prices dropped by $200, and silver was more volatile. The long - term upward logic is solid, but short - term volatility is high [3]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper recovered intraday losses, showing resilience in low - level buying interest. The market is paying attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Shanghai copper shows strong resilience at the 84,000 yuan level [4]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory has returned to seasonal destocking, and the short - term trend is to test the previous high resistance [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the industry inventory is high, and it mainly follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory has increased significantly, and the supply surplus is obvious. The price is running weakly [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc has low inventory supporting high spot premiums, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The short - term trend is to be under pressure at the $3,080/ton level [8]. - **Lead**: LME lead has a 0 - 3 - month discount of $41.85/ton. The domestic short - term inventory is low, but the rebound space of Shanghai lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: Last Friday, LME tin's short - term decline reached below $34,500, and it closed above $35,000. Shanghai tin followed the decline. The inventory decreased last week, and short - term support is at 275,000 yuan [10]. Industrial Products - **Polysilicon**: The market is advancing in line with photovoltaic capacity control policies, but the policy implementation rhythm is uncertain. There is a risk of inventory accumulation if production cuts are not realized [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Xinjiang start - up rate has reached a new high this year, and the downstream demand is stable. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate [12]. - **Steel Products (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On Friday night, steel prices rebounded. The demand for thread has increased, and the production has decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil has also increased, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore futures price weakened. The supply has increased, and the demand may face pressure in the future. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The second round of price increases has started. The inventory is decreasing slightly, and the price may be prone to rise [15]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating strongly. The production has increased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The price may be prone to rise [16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is oscillating. The demand is fair, and the supply is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The geopolitical situation is still unstable, and the Red Sea resumption of navigation is uncertain. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the overall trend is expected to oscillate [19]. Energy - Chemical - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil has tightened, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase. The low - sulfur market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention can be paid to short - selling high - sulfur cracking spreads and widening high - low sulfur spreads [20]. - **Asphalt**: The current supply - demand is in a tight balance, but there is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation at the end of 2025 [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The US propane export has decreased, and the inventory situation is mixed. The demand is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not increased significantly [22]. - **Urea**: The main contract is oscillating at a low level. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is likely to continue to be weak [23]. - **Methanol**: The import supply may be affected by sanctions, and the inventory situation needs attention [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has declined due to the fall in oil prices. The current fundamentals are okay, but the medium - term trend depends on oil prices and the external market [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is under pressure due to trade conflicts [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand follow - up is limited, so the price support is weak [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate weakly, and caustic soda needs to pay attention to the inventory and demand situation [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX is temporarily shrinking, and the supply of PTA is expected to increase. The demand is expected to turn weak, and the prices are expected to be weak [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation expectation has weakened. The short - term trend depends on the raw material market [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The sales of new - season US soybeans are slow, and the domestic supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter. If the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates, the supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate downward if the trade relationship does not improve [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans needs to be tested under export pressure. The oil - meal price difference is widening, and the oil market is more resilient. Palm oil has production reduction expectations in the fourth quarter, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and the supply is limited in the short term. But the arrival of Australian rapeseed may relieve the supply pressure [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean futures price is oscillating after a rebound. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is widening [38]. - **Corn**: The Northeast corn price has rebounded slightly, but the supply is expected to be abundant in the future, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weak. The sow inventory is expected to be reduced, and the mid - term price may remain low [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is under pressure, and the spot price has started to decline. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium term [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded slightly, and the demand may be weak. The domestic new cotton cost is around 14,000 yuan, and the demand is general [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The new - season cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, and the price is under pressure [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price is oscillating. The domestic supply may remain low, and the demand is average in the peak season [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has rebounded slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. Attention should be paid to the port inventory [46]. Financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the stock market declined, and the futures index also fell. The market is affected by factors such as US bank credit problems, geopolitical situations, and Sino - US economic and trade relations. The market style may rotate [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price has risen. The domestic interest rate may oscillate widely at a high level, and the bond market is entering a repair stage [48].