Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have increased after two consecutive decreases, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10 [2][3]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the price increase based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, which was 62.44 USD per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 2.74% [3]. - This marks the 22nd price adjustment in 2025, with a total of seven increases, nine decreases, and six instances of no change throughout the year [3][4]. - Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 620 yuan per ton and 595 yuan per ton respectively [4]. Impact on Consumers - Following the price adjustment, retail prices for diesel range from 6.6 to 6.8 yuan per liter, while 92-octane gasoline is priced between 6.9 and 7.0 yuan per liter [4]. - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank will cost an additional 5 yuan, leading to an estimated increase of 7 yuan in fuel costs for a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers per month [4]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month will see an increase of approximately 177 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [4]. International Oil Market Trends - International crude oil prices have shown a weak and fluctuating trend, with OPEC+ members deciding to increase production targets, raising concerns about oversupply [5][6]. - The U.S. government shutdown and rising crude oil inventories have further pressured oil prices downward [5][6]. - Analysts predict that global oil inventories will continue to rise, exerting downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude expected to average 62 USD per barrel in Q4 2025 and drop to 52 USD in 2026 [6]. Future Price Expectations - The next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is anticipated to be downward due to a pessimistic outlook on international oil prices and ongoing oversupply concerns from OPEC+ [7]. - Analysts suggest that the seasonal decrease in U.S. refinery demand and the increase in crude oil inventories will contribute to this expected price reduction [7][8]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while diesel demand remains stable, gasoline lacks strong support, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations in gasoline prices [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, but recent mining disruptions in Indonesia and the Philippines should be monitored for potential price rebounds [4] - For stainless steel, with the end of the consumption peak season, lower - than - expected demand growth, and weakening cost support, the stainless - steel price is expected to stay in low - level oscillations [5] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,670 yuan/ton and closed at 119,680 yuan/ton, a 0.01% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 82,864 (-9,186) lots, and the open interest was 117,784 (-4,095) lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a low - opening and high - walking oscillatory repair pattern. Affected by macro - sentiment and the metal sector, it rebounded during the day session and slightly closed up. The high - level oscillation of the US dollar index still suppresses nickel prices. The domestic commodity sector rose collectively, and Shanghai nickel rebounded accordingly [2] Nickel Ore - The nickel - ore market trading atmosphere was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and there was a supply - demand price gap. Factory procurement enthusiasm was low [2] - In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area's shipping efficiency was delayed due to continuous rainfall, while the northern mining area had stable local supply. Indonesian November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark prices are expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, with a current mainstream premium of +26 [2] - Due to the rainy season and typhoons, shipping in the southern Surigao area of the Philippines has stopped, and nickel - ore exports are expected to sharply decline from November to December [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premium of each brand did not change [3] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 600 yuan/ton to 3,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton [3] - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 32,533 (-101) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,404 (+300) tons [3] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [4] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,545 yuan/ton and closed at 12,605 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 100,514 (+26,181) lots, and the open interest was 46,429 (-4,171) lots [4] - The main contract of stainless steel showed an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. It rebounded in the afternoon driven by the rise of the black - metal sector [4] Spot - Affected by the futures' stop - falling and rebound, spot inquiries increased, but actual trading activity was still low, and quotes were basically flat [5] - The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 305 - 605 yuan/ton [5] - The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 914.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, crude oil is likely to continue oscillating as it lacks both short - term supply - demand and geopolitical drivers. After the Venezuelan situation develops, there may be an opportunity for a high - level short position this year. Among the energy and chemical products, polyester is hyped for supply cuts. Styrene has short - term supply - demand improvement but significant medium - term supply pressure. Methanol has clear medium - term upward drivers and can be considered a long - position core variety [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: From this year to the first quarter of next year, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus is still significant. However, due to the low - level inventory and the delay of the expected supply shock, combined with the digestion of previous short - term geopolitical events, it will likely oscillate until new variables emerge. Pay attention to the Venezuelan situation for a high - level short - selling opportunity [3]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day. The hourly cycle strategy suggests waiting and seeing [3]. Styrene - Logic: Recently, with more maintenance, the operating rate has dropped to the lowest in the same period in recent years, but the production is still at the highest in the same period. Although the inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage, the destocking rate is lower than in previous years. In the medium term, the situation is still pessimistic, especially in the first quarter of next year [5]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, with signs of short - position profit - taking. The upper short - term pressure is at 6345. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear and look for short - position re - entry opportunities after the daily - line rebound [8]. Rubber - Logic: Since August, the downward trend of rubber has been less smooth than that of synthetic rubber. The supply pressure of natural rubber is not obvious in the rainy season in Southeast Asia since October. The key is to focus on the driving effect of synthetic rubber [10]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It rebounds with reduced positions today, but the downward structure remains unchanged, and the upper short - term pressure is at 15170. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The main driver is the cost - end butadiene. Although the current inventory has not increased significantly, the high supply pressure of butadiene in the medium term will still be prominent. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for a high - level short - selling opportunity after the crude oil rebound [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It rebounds with reduced positions today, and the upper short - term pressure is at 10500. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear and look for short - position re - entry opportunities after the daily - line rebound [18]. PX - Logic: There are few contradictions in polyester itself, but after the industry development symposium, there are many rumors of polyester industry production cuts, and the market has been trading with increasing positions. Pay attention to the realization of expectations [22]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly line. It rises with increasing positions today, and the lower short - term support is at 6715. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, there are few contradictions in polyester itself, and pay attention to the realization of production - cut rumors [24]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly line. It rises with reduced positions today, and the lower short - term support is at 4620. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24]. PP - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [27]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 6530. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [27]. Methanol - Logic: The current high - supply, high - import, and high - inventory situation continues, and the market is still in the bottom - finding stage. For short - sellers, it is not advisable to chase short positions. For long - buyers, there are medium - term long - entry opportunities when the short - term structure changes and specific events occur [32]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily line. It rebounds after hitting a new low today, and the upper short - term pressure moves down to 2150. It is recommended to take profit on short positions at 2150 and look for long - entry opportunities after the short - term structure reverses [32]. PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, the domestic real - estate demand collapses, and the social inventory has reached the highest level in history. There is no upward driving force [35]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure moves down to 4640. The hourly - cycle short - position strategy can be held according to the technical analysis [35]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [37]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily and hourly lines respectively. It oscillates near the pressure level during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 3950. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [37]. Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [39]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily and hourly lines respectively. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 6850. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [39]. Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the downward driving force remains unchanged. There is a rebound today due to rumors of some enterprises' production suspension [44]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 1245. The 15 - minute cycle structure turns bullish, and the hourly level shows resistance to decline. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions cautiously with 1245 as the profit - taking level [44]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and there is no upward driving force in supply - demand [45]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 2400. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [45].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is moderately strong in the medium term [1] - PTA: Supply pressure persists, high - level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads [1] - MEG: Supply pressure remains high, trend is weak [1] Core Views - PX: The unilateral trend is strong. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG. Despite the restart of some devices and the high operating rate, the cost support and demand factors make the unilateral strong pattern clear [5]. - PTA: With positive demand feedback and cost support, it should be regarded as unilaterally strong. Although the inventory accumulation in November narrows, the supply is still in excess after some device overhauls end, and the processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is short - term oscillating weakly. The supply pressure persists, and it is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads. Although the supply pressure eases slightly in the short term, it remains in the long term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - A 300,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip device in the southwest has been shut down for maintenance since early November, with a total of 600,000 tons of production shut down at the factory [3]. - The price increase in the previous trading day was mainly driven by increased stock market activity. The sudden increase in market activity may be due to the entry of external funds [3]. - The PX market is currently quite stable fundamentally, and there is no obvious weakness in the short term. The main support for PX comes from China's higher PTA production capacity, especially from new factories launched this year [3]. - Formosa Chemicals & Fiber Corp. restarted its 720,000 - ton/year PX production line in Mailiao on November 4 after completing the planned turnaround, and has been operating at about 70% capacity since then. A 350,000 - ton/year production line has been shut down since early April for planned turnaround [5]. Futures Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6780 | - 40 | - 0.59% | | PTA Main | 4664 | - 24 | - 0.51% | | MEG Main | 3942 | 18 | 0.46% | | PF Main | 6214 | - 30 | - 0.48% | | SC Main | 460.6 | 0.2 | 0.04% | | Calendar Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX1 - 5 | 0 | 14 | - 14 | | PTA1 - 5 | - 64 | - 62 | - 2 | | MEG1 - 5 | - 77 | - 80 | 3 | | PF12 - 1 | - 38 | - 34 | - 4 | | SC11 - 12 | 0.9 | 1 | - 0.1 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 825.67 | 826 | - 0.33 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4572 | 4540 | 32 | | MEG Spot | 4013 | 3978 | 35 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 581.75 | 575.75 | 6 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 63.61 | 63.66 | - 0.05 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 250.25 | 238.5 | 11.75 | | PTA Processing Fee | 120.65 | 141.93 | - 21.29 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 259.02 | 267.68 | - 8.66 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 54.06 | 99.6 | - 45.54 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: - 1 (weakly bearish) [5] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - Supply: Fushun Petrochemical and Formosa Plastics' devices restarted, and the domestic and Asian PX operating rates reached new highs. Yulong Petrochemical was sanctioned, resulting in weak MX prices. Although the short - process profit is strong, the operating rate has not actually recovered [5]. - Demand: Some PTA devices were shut down or had reduced loads, and the PTA load declined. The stock prices of polyester leaders rose sharply, but the actual probability of production reduction is low [5]. PTA - Supply: Some factories without supporting facilities reduced their loads, and the inventory accumulation in November narrowed. After the overhaul of some devices such as Xin凤鸣 ended, the supply was still in excess [6]. - Demand: The polyester load remained high (91.5% in November), and the rigid demand for PTA was acceptable [6]. MEG - Supply: The overall operating rate of MEG declined this week, with multiple devices shut down or reducing loads. However, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device is about to restart, and the long - term supply pressure remains due to concentrated imports [6]. - Demand: Downstream weaving orders weakened locally, and the operating rate declined. However, the polyester load remained high in the short term, providing some demand support [6]. Valuation and Strategy - PX: The PXN spread has risen to a high level, and producers can hedge at high prices. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG [5]. - PTA: The processing fee of the 01 contract has reached a new low of 219 Yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee is 173 Yuan/ton. The processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Authors: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Internationally, the expected high yields in Brazil, India, and Thailand have strengthened the global sugar supply surplus, with raw sugar rebounding weakly after hitting a five - year low; domestically, Guangxi sugar mills are actively reducing inventory for the new crushing season, with some spot prices rising, but consumption support is insufficient. Typhoons have damaged sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi, bringing uncertainty to the new - season yield, and the expected concentrated arrival of imported sugar in the second half of the year still suppresses the market, with domestic futures prices slowly moving down to test the 5400 yuan/ton support level [3] Price and Spread - On November 7, 2025, SR01 closed at 5457 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.47%; SR03 closed at 5420 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.13% and a weekly decrease of 0.37%; SR05 closed at 5397 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.30%, etc. [4] - The basis of Nanning - SR01 on November 6, 2025 was 302 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7 yuan and a weekly increase of 24 yuan; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 212 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7 yuan and a weekly decrease of 36 yuan [8] Import Price - On November 7, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3967 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a weekly decrease of 6 yuan; the out - of - quota price was 5022 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 19 yuan and a weekly decrease of 8 yuan. The in - quota price of Thai sugar imports was 4023 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a weekly decrease of 9 yuan; the out - of - quota price was 5095 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 19 yuan and a weekly decrease of 12 yuan [11] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short term, market sentiment may improve due to China - US trade consultations. The output in southern Xinjiang in the new season is lower than expected, and the purchase price of new cotton is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new - cotton output is still high, and downstream demand is weak, so there is insufficient momentum for cotton prices to rise further. Attention should be paid to the hedging pressure around 13600 - 13800 and the subsequent new - season output determination [13] Price and Spread - On November 7, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13580 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan and a decrease of 0.18%; cotton 05 closed at 13590 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan and a decrease of 0.18%; cotton 09 closed at 13745 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan and a decrease of 0.29%. The cotton basis was 1279 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 64 yuan [14] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, with trading concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The warehousing work is in the later stage. In Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan, the striped apples are on the market, and farmers are selling at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, Gansu's warehousing is basically completed, Shaanxi's is nearing completion, and in Qixia's western townships in Shandong, a large amount of farmers' apple supplies are still being warehoused [17] Price Change - On November 7, 2025, AP01 closed at 9040 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.36% and a weekly decrease of 2.14%; AP03 closed at 9024 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.14% and a weekly decrease of 2.4%; AP04 closed at 9088 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly decrease of 3.65%, etc. [18] Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - The new - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. The current new - season yield is the core point of market game. Currently, there is a yield reduction in southern Xinjiang, but the extent is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of yield are prone to偏差. In the short term, red date prices fluctuate greatly due to capital game, but with the start of the purchase season under the condition of yield reduction, the downward space is expected to be limited for the time being. Attention should be paid to the subsequent commodity rate and purchase situation of new red dates [23]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil showed a volatile and weakening trend. Geopolitical risk premiums declined, and demand entered the off - season. The expected supply surplus strengthened, suppressing prices. In the future, factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Weak fundamentals will exert long - term pressure on oil prices, but cost support, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical factors will provide support and increase price volatility. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [9][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Report Abstract - **Market Focus**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified, with the US increasing military deployments in the Caribbean. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventory has significantly increased. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend the production increase plan in the first quarter of next year [7]. - **Key Data**: For the week ending October 31, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 5.202 million barrels (expected 603,000 barrels, previous value - 6.858 million barrels); the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 30,000 barrels (previous value 133,400 barrels); the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 49,800 barrels (previous value 53,300 barrels) [7]. - **Main Ideas**: Crude oil is in a volatile and weakening trend. Geopolitical risk premiums have declined, and demand has entered the off - season. The expected supply surplus is increasing, suppressing prices. In the future, factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [9]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Consensus reached in China - US economic and trade consultations; weakening fundamentals [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Plan**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in the first quarter of 2026. This can relieve short - term supply pressure but does not change the long - term supply increase situation [12]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Tensions in the Gaza Strip, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict, and intensified US - Venezuela relations bring uncertainties. Geopolitical factors have not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply but will increase price volatility [13]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a divergence among Fed officials on a December interest rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [16]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5, indicating a downturn in the manufacturing industry and easing inflation pressure [16]. 4. Data Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of the week ending October 31, US domestic crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 1,365.1 million barrels per day, reaching a new high for the year. The number of US oil rigs remained flat at 414, expected to stay low this year [17][20]. - **Demand Side**: US refinery operating rates decreased, and European 16 - country refinery operating rates showed a downward trend. Chinese refinery operating rates were divided, with state - owned refineries experiencing a slight decline and independent refineries rising. Refinery profits in China decreased [23][29][36]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory may reach a turning point, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased while gasoline inventory decreased. US crude oil cracking spreads increased slightly [45][49][50]. 5. Future Outlook - The factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Weak fundamentals will suppress oil prices in the long term, but cost support, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical factors will provide support. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, with rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, with the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, the price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry fundamentals show high supply, increasing imports, and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [29][30]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.37%, at 460.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%, at 2728.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil fell 8.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, at 3269.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.20 million barrels to 421.17 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; SPR replenished 0.50 million barrels to 409.60 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 4.73 million barrels to 206.01 million barrels, a 2.24% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 111.55 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 21.89 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.28 million barrels to 41.70 million barrels, a 0.67% increase [2]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The Taicang price decreased by 2, Inner Mongolia increased by 15, and the price in southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 16 yuan, at 2125 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 101 [3]. - **Strategy Views**: With rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while that in Hubei increased by 10. Most regions remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 11 yuan, at 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 74. The 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 83 [4]. - **Strategy Views**: With the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, 0.21 percentage points higher than last week and 5.35 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, 0.24 percentage points lower than last week and 4.37 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton increase, a 1.6% increase. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 658,000 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,000 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The total spot inventory in the Qingdao area increased by 12,200 tons to 436,300 tons. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 145,350 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 18,200 (+20) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1805 (+20) dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6850 (+100) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 98,700 (+100) yuan [10][11]. - **Strategy Views**: The price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 8 yuan, at 4630 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (-20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (-2) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (+70) yuan/ton, and ethylene was 740 (0) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 77.4%, a 3.1% increase; the ethylene method was 80.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. The factory inventory was 338,000 tons (+4000), and the social inventory was 1.03 million tons (-5000) [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5330 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5398 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan expansion. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6300 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease; the basis was 50 yuan/ton, a 79 - yuan weakening. The BZN spread was 89.5 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 497.7 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan reduction. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 179,300 tons, a 13,700 - ton decrease. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.09%, a 0.68% decrease; the PS operating rate was 52.00%, a 1.80% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 62.24%, a 0.27% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 72.10%, a 0.70% decrease [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6805 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.3%, a 0.73% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a 74,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a 300 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.37% decrease. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan expansion [18]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6471 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6555 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 84 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 78.55%, a 0.07% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a 4800 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 64,600 tons, a 700 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a 0.24% increase. The LL - PP spread was 334 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 170 yuan, at 6820 yuan, and PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. After conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 73 yuan (-92), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. In terms of devices, Wushi Petrochemical in China restarted, Fujia Dahua was restarting, overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG and Saudi Arabia's Satorp were under maintenance, and Taiwan's FCFC device was restarting. The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load [24]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 88 yuan, at 4688 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton, at 4540 yuan, with a basis of - 80 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. As of October 31, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.207 million tons, a 6000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 17 yuan to 114 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 214 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 3924 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan, at 3972 yuan, with a basis of 74 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan (+11). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, a 3.8% decrease, among which the synthetic gas method was 71.9%, an 11.5% decrease; the ethylene - based load was 72.7%, a 0.7% increase. In terms of synthetic gas devices, Yulin Chemical and Tianye reduced their loads, Sinochem and Yankuang were under maintenance, and Jianyuan and Tongliao Jinmei were restarting. In terms of petrochemicals, there were few device changes. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The import arrival forecast was 189,000 tons, and the East China departure on November 5 was 17,000 tons. The port inventory was 562,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 837 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price

Core Insights - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, has halted the approval of industrial licenses for certain intermediate nickel processing plants, aiming to enhance the value chain of its nickel industry [1][2] - The country accounts for approximately 60% of global nickel production and previously banned nickel ore exports in 2020 to stimulate investment in processing industries [1] - The new regulation may impact projects scheduled for completion after 2027, potentially leading to delays or cancellations [1] Industry Impact - The directive is part of Indonesia's strategy to address ongoing supply surplus issues within the nickel market [1] - Several high-pressure acid leaching facilities are expected to be operational in the next three years, producing mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), which can be further processed for electric vehicle battery precursor chemicals [2] - The lack of processing capabilities in Indonesia for these chemicals remains a significant challenge [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a pattern of high inventory and oversupply, with nickel prices expected to remain in low - level oscillations. A significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter may lead to a nickel price rebound [1][2]. - The stainless - steel market shows weak demand recovery and loose cost support, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, a - 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,448 (+577) lots, and the open interest was 115,164 (-3296) lots. The price fluctuated within a range of about 1,390 yuan, with a significant narrowing compared to previous days. The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 1,977 tons to 32,929 tons, and the LME nickel inventory, although unchanged at 252,750 tons, had a cumulative increase of 20,300 tons in the past month and an 8.79% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is a gap between supply and demand, and market sentiment is cautious. In the Philippines, increased rainfall and the typhoon "Seagull" may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the large price drop, spot trading was good, and the spot premium of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,555 yuan/ton and closed at 12,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 90,380 (-21,042) lots, and the open interest was 74,412 (-4,171) lots. Affected by Shanghai nickel and the black - metal sector, the price showed a weak oscillation, with a fluctuation range of about 100 yuan, further narrowing from the previous day [2][3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism intensified, spot prices were generally lowered, but trading remained weak. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 919.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is expected to consolidate in a lower trading range of $3,800 to $4,050 per ounce due to concerns over the uncertain outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts and buying demand [1] - After this consolidation phase, the average gold price may reach above $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are declining due to expectations of oversupply, particularly in the first quarter of 2026 when demand typically weakens [2] - The oil market may face a significant oversupply situation next year unless there are supply disruptions caused by sanctions [2] Group 3: Euro and Pound Analysis - The euro is expected to rebound supported by a strong economic fundamental in the Eurozone, with forecasts suggesting EUR/USD could rise to 1.20 in Q4 2023 and 1.26 by Q3 2026 [3] - The British pound may weaken further if the Bank of England cuts rates in December, with expectations for EUR/GBP to rise to 0.89 in Q1 2026 and 0.90 in Q2 2026 [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating that the easing cycle may have ended, with inflation risks remaining high [5] - The cash rate is likely to stay at 3.6% as inflation levels pose challenges to previous narratives of slowing inflation [5] Group 5: Domestic Market Insights - The resumption of government bond trading in October is not expected to affect the anticipated reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [6] - The current environment supports the resumption of bond trading, which may enhance long-term liquidity for banks [6] Group 6: Dollar Index and Economic Projections - The dollar index has surpassed 100, but the current movement is viewed as a rebound rather than the start of a new appreciation cycle [7] - The market is pricing in a greater likelihood of no rate cuts in December, which could lead to significant adjustments in future policy expectations [7] Group 7: Gold Tax Policy Impact - The new gold tax policy is expected to influence the behavior of three types of market participants, encouraging on-exchange trading and potentially increasing costs for downstream businesses [8] - The policy clarifies the distinction between investment and non-investment uses of gold, impacting how transactions are reported [8] Group 8: Copper Market Dynamics - A downward trend in supply is emerging, with major copper mining companies expected to see a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in production by Q3 2025 [9] - The combination of raw material shortages and stable demand may lead to a significant supply gap in the global refined copper market, with LME copper prices projected to exceed $10,000 per ton [9]