期货盯盘神器专属文章 CBOT农产品晚间分析：美豆失守10美元！技术图表全面破位，空头剑指年度低点9.71美元？当美国中 西部天气转干，这会是农产品价格反弹的"导火索"吗？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bean meal market, the new - season US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest despite a decrease in the sown area due to high yields. In China, the oil mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, while the breeding industry is in a seasonal consumption off - peak. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the spot price remains stable. However, the bean meal futures price rose last week under the influence of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans [2] - For the corn market, the trade inventory in China's main production areas has decreased after a wave of concentrated grain sales, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on demand, and deep - processing enterprises also adjust their quotations slightly. The impact of import corn auction on prices has weakened [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3025 yuan/ton yesterday, down 70 yuan/ton or 2.26% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2682 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton or 2.76% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2930 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2830 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association expects the soybean export volume in July 2025 to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate and June's export volume but up 26% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and the new - season US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. In China, the supply is loose, and the spot price is stable. The bean meal futures price was affected by macro - sentiment last week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans [2] Strategy - The strategy for the bean meal market is to be cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2318 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2669 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market Information: From July 1st to 20th, Russia's corn export volume was 273,000 tons, up 13% year - on - year. The number of export destinations decreased from 10 to 3, with Iran and Turkey as the main buyers [3] Market Analysis - In China, the trade inventory in the main production areas has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and the impact of import corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Strategy - The strategy for the corn market is to be cautiously bearish [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in livestock and agricultural product prices, highlighting the fluctuations in pig, chicken, rubber, corn, wheat, and soybean meal prices, along with the underlying supply and demand dynamics affecting these markets [3][4][5][6]. Livestock Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.27 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 3.65%, while the price of 15 kg piglets increased slightly to 31.96 yuan/kg, up 0.22% week-on-week [3]. - The average weight of market pigs was reported at 128.83 kg, down 0.2 kg from the previous week, indicating a continued weak supply-demand balance in the market [3]. - The price of white feather broilers rose to 6.4 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 2.56%, while chick prices surged to 1.37 yuan/bird, up 38.38% week-on-week, driven by seasonal demand for restocking [4]. Rubber Prices - Domestic natural rubber futures prices reached 14,840 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.16%, supported by tight supply conditions due to ongoing rainy weather in Southeast Asia and recovering demand from the tire manufacturing sector [5]. Grain Prices - Corn prices averaged 2,405 yuan/ton, down 0.68% week-on-week, while wheat prices fell to 2,439.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% [6]. - Soybean meal prices increased to 2,969.43 yuan/ton, up 1.87% week-on-week, driven by rising U.S. soybean futures prices despite ample domestic supply [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is "Neutral" [4][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean price oscillated recently. In the short - term, the gap in domestic soybean inventory supports price resilience, but the increase in imported soybean arrivals and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long - term, the good weather in new - season soybean production areas and the global supply surplus will drag down the domestic price. Policy factors also affect the supply expectation, and the price will maintain a range - bound movement [3] - The domestic peanut price also oscillated. In the short - term, the low inventory of old peanuts and the tight supply of high - quality peanuts support the price, but the expected supply pressure in September and potential inventory pressure may affect the price. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the new - season peanut supply will be abundant, and the support level may decline. There are also uncertainties such as weather, import arrivals, and the impact of soybean production on peanut prices [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4111.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 7.00 yuan/ton (+0.17%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot was A09 + 189, down 7 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.3%. As of the close, soybean futures fell between 2.75 and 10.25 cents. The prices of different contracts are as follows: July contract down 7.50 cents to 1024.25 cents/bushel; August contract down 10.25 cents to 1021.25 cents/bushel; November contract down 3.25 cents to 1017.50 cents/bushel [2] - On July 19, the prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short - term: There is a gap in domestic soybean inventory, but the increase in imported soybean arrivals (estimated at 9.5 million tons in July) and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside [3] - Long - term: The good weather in new - season soybean production areas and the global supply surplus will drag down the domestic price, and the weak domestic food consumption also restricts the price increase [3] Policy Factors - Pay attention to the provincial reserve auction volume in July and the rotation rhythm of Sinograin. If the auction transaction rate exceeds 70%, it may strengthen the expectation of loose supply, but the purchase price of Sinograin provides some support [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8176.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 56.00 yuan/ton (+0.69%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8900.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The basis was PK10 + 24.00, down 156.00 (-86.67%) from the previous day [4] Market Information - The current prices of peanuts in different regions are as follows: Henan Zhengyang Baisha general rice is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin; Shandong Linyi Junan Haohua general rice is about 4.10 yuan/jin; Liaoning Changtu 308 general rice is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin; Xingcheng Huayu 23 general rice is about 4.50 yuan/jin; Jilin 308 general rice purchase price is about 4.50 - 4.60 yuan/jin [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Short - term: The inventory of old peanuts is low, and the high - quality peanuts support the price. However, the delayed arrival of imported peanuts and the upcoming new - season peanuts may bring supply pressure in September, and the demand vacuum after the oil mills stop purchasing may also affect the price [5][6] - Long - term: If there is no extreme weather in 2025, the supply of new - season peanuts will be abundant, and the decrease in planting costs may lead to a downward shift in the support level [6] Uncertainties - The weather during the key growth period from April to July may cause yield fluctuations; the concentrated arrival of peanuts from Senegal after the port re - opens may overlap with the new - season peanuts; the bumper harvest of South American and North American soybeans may suppress the price of peanut meal and affect the peanut price [6]

Group 1: Pork and Poultry Market - The average daily trading volume of pork was 8,664 heads (664.50 tons), a decrease of 3.4% compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of live pigs in Hangzhou was 16.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.69%, while the wholesale price of pork was 19.2 yuan/kg, up by 2.62% [1] - Retail prices for various pork cuts showed mixed results, with pork loin at 34.81 yuan/kg (up 0.4%) and pork hind leg at 28.13 yuan/kg (down 0.92%) [1] Group 2: Vegetable Market - The average daily trading volume of vegetables was 3,358 tons, an increase of 0.39% from the previous week [2] - The overall wholesale price of vegetables rose by 4.89% to an average of 3.86 yuan/kg, with 14 varieties increasing in price and 3 decreasing [2] - Significant price increases were noted for celery (up 25.08% to 4.09 yuan/kg) and cabbage (up 19.87% to 1.81 yuan/kg) [2] Group 3: Aquatic Products Market - The total wholesale trading volume of aquatic products was 3,337.95 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 476.85 tons, reflecting a 0.14% increase from the previous week [3] - The overall average price of aquatic products rose by 0.07% to 42.55 yuan/kg, with 1 variety increasing and 6 remaining stable [3] - Retail prices for certain aquatic products saw notable changes, with grass carp increasing by 18.15% to 33.85 yuan/kg, while pomfret decreased by 6.15% to 45.96 yuan/kg [3]

Core Insights - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" increased to 112.64, up by 0.34 points from the previous Friday, indicating a rise in wholesale prices of agricultural products [1] - The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose to 112.67, up by 0.39 points from the previous Friday, reflecting a similar trend in vegetable prices [1] Price Changes - The average price of pork reached 20.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4% from the previous Friday [1] - Beef prices rose to 63.6 yuan/kg, also up by 0.4% [1] - Mutton prices decreased to 59.54 yuan/kg, down by 0.4% [1] - Egg prices increased slightly to 7.06 yuan/kg, up by 0.1% [1] - The price of white-feathered chicken rose to 17.14 yuan/kg, up by 0.1% [1] Vegetable and Fruit Prices - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables was 4.36 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.5% [1] - The average price of 6 monitored fruits was 7.33 yuan/kg, up by 0.4% [1] Fish Prices - The price of crucian carp was 22.77 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.7% [1] - Carp prices rose to 15.59 yuan/kg, up by 0.5% [1] - The price of white catfish decreased to 10.26 yuan/kg, down by 0.8% [1] - Large hairtail fish prices increased to 39.55 yuan/kg, up by 1.2% [1]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.2% from the previous week [1] - Average wholesale prices of six types of fruits slightly declined, with watermelon, banana, and grape decreasing by 3.2%, 1.7%, and 1.2% respectively [1] - Average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.13 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, with cauliflower, pumpkin, and garlic decreasing by 5.6%, 4.3%, and 4.2% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices continued to decline, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil decreasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1%, while rice increased by 0.2% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly increased, with crucian carp, large yellow croaker, and silver carp rising by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices were mainly up, with pork at 20.30 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.1%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Wholesale prices of finished oil slightly increased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline rising by 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.0% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were mainly up, with methanol, sulfuric acid, and polypropylene increasing by 4.0%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively, while soda ash decreased by 0.4% [2] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices showed slight fluctuations, with urea increasing by 0.2% and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices remained stable, with aluminum increasing by 1.0%, while zinc and copper decreased by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to decline, with coking coal and No. 2 smokeless lump coal decreasing by 1.0% and 0.1% respectively, while thermal coal remained stable at 750 yuan per ton [2] - Steel prices slightly decreased, with welded steel pipes, ordinary medium plates, and high-speed wire rod decreasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2]

Core Insights - Lemon prices have surged by 300% due to extreme weather conditions affecting major production areas, leading to a significant reduction in supply [1] - Tariff adjustments in international trade, along with increased costs and loss rates in cold chain transportation, have contributed to the historical high prices of lemons, particularly premium quality lemons [1] - In Sichuan Anju, lemon prices have increased by 3 to 5 times compared to the same period last year [1] - In beverage shops, such as those in Beijing, the cheapest lemon water is now priced at 5 yuan, while adding cucumber slices can raise the price to 20 yuan [1] - Some beverage stores are considering temporarily removing lemon water from their menus to cope with the price surge [1]

Group 1 - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" for the 24th week of 2025 is 113.04, down 0.44 points from the previous week and down 0.13 points year-on-year [1] - The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index is 113.11, down 0.51 points from the previous week and up 0.24 points year-on-year [1] - Prices for pork, beef, and eggs have slightly decreased, with pork averaging 20.22 yuan per kilogram, down 1.4% week-on-week and down 17.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables is 4.35 yuan per kilogram, up 0.2% week-on-week and unchanged year-on-year [2] - Among the vegetables, 13 saw price increases, 1 remained stable, and 14 experienced price declines, with lotus root and spinach increasing by 11.3% and 5.8% respectively [2] - Prices for various aquatic products have slightly decreased, with big hairtail averaging 39.00 yuan per kilogram, down 3.0% week-on-week [2] Group 3 - The average price of 6 monitored fruits is 7.70 yuan per kilogram, down 2.3% week-on-week and up 4.8% year-on-year [2] - Specific fruits like giant peak grapes and watermelons saw declines of 5.5% and 3.2% respectively, while Fuji apples and pineapples increased by 0.5% and 0.2% [2]

Group 1: Soybean Meal Market - The soybean meal market is experiencing a supply surplus, leading to a downward price trend in 2024 due to weak demand and stable domestic supply [3] - The tightening and loosening of customs inspection times for imported soybeans, along with renewed U.S.-China tariff issues, have caused fluctuations in supply and demand [3] - The forecast for soybean imports shows a gradual decrease in arrival volumes, with expectations of 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating a neutral to bearish impact on prices [3] Group 2: Corn Market - Corn prices have recently rebounded, with the main futures contract reaching 2,382 yuan/ton, reflecting a maximum increase of 3.5% over the past month [1] - The overall trend for corn prices has been characterized by a narrow rebound followed by a decline, with supply tightening due to farmers' reluctance to sell at lower prices [1][2] - Despite expectations of reduced demand, there remains a fundamental support for corn prices due to ongoing needs in the market, suggesting potential for further price increases in June and July [2]