ni 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 9 月 22 日 原油周报 偏空因素主导 原油冲高回落 核心观点 原油：随着地缘因素被市场消化以后，油市供应过剩的预期 再度成为左右油市的主导因素。由于 OPEC+产油国公布的 8 月产量 数据偏空，叠加未来北半球需求淡季到来，四季度供应过剩压力加 重，导致本周国内外原油期货价格呈现冲高回落的走势，期价涨幅 收敛。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约当周累计涨幅达 2.16%至 487.0 元/桶。 原油-SC 宝城期货金融研究所 由于 OPEC+持续扩大增产，力争抢夺全球原油市场份额，或导 致今年四季度原油供应过剩压力加大，油价重心下移。后市仍需关 注地缘风险。目前中东、俄乌、南美依然是油市地缘风险发生的聚 集点，一旦动乱升级，都将给予原油期货带来溢价空间。在短期供 应利空主导的背景下，预计后市国内外原油期货价格或维持震荡偏 弱的走势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced slight declines due to increased diesel inventories and upward adjustments in supply surplus pressure by organizations like IEA and EIA, despite favorable conditions such as crude oil inventory reductions and interest rate cuts [2][9]. - As of September 19, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were recorded at $66.04 and $62.40 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.42% and 0.46% respectively from the previous week [2][28]. - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a decline of 1.99% in the week ending September 19, 2025, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.44% [10][13]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.04 per barrel, down $0.95 (-1.42%), while WTI crude futures settled at $62.40 per barrel, down $0.29 (-0.46%) [2][28]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 372, a decrease of 2 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms increased by 1 to 131 [32]. U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels from the previous week [55]. U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing averaged 16.424 million barrels per day, down 394,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.30%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [64][66]. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 821 million barrels, a decrease of 8.781 million barrels (-1.06%) from the previous week [75]. Finished Oil Products - In North America, the average weekly prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $98.27, $84.52, and $87.49 per barrel respectively, with respective price differences from crude oil of $30.72, $16.97, and $19.93 [97].

Group 1: US-China Relations - The phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump on September 19 was described as pragmatic, positive, and constructive, focusing on stabilizing and developing US-China relations [1][2] - Xi emphasized the importance of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, urging both sides to avoid unilateral trade restrictions and to create a fair business environment for Chinese companies in the US [2][3] - Trump acknowledged the significance of US-China relations and expressed a desire for long-term cooperation, highlighting the potential for both countries to contribute positively to global peace and stability [2][3] Group 2: TikTok and Trade Negotiations - The discussions included the ongoing issue of TikTok, with China expressing its willingness to respect market rules and facilitate negotiations that align with Chinese laws [2][4] - The call was seen as a critical moment in the context of a 90-day "tariff truce" that is set to last until early November, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [3] - Analysts noted that the communication between the two leaders sends a positive signal for future economic negotiations and may help alleviate trade-related tensions [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic crude oil prices fell nearly 2%, driven by concerns over weak demand, geopolitical factors, and increased production from OPEC+ [6][7] - Analysts pointed out that the US's poor demand outlook is overshadowing potential benefits from Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to investor concerns about oil demand [6] - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, contributing to a supply surplus that is expected to keep oil prices under pressure [6][7] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to market volatility and influencing oil prices [8][9] - The seasonal decline in demand due to the end of summer electricity peaks in the Middle East and ongoing maintenance at US refineries is expected to further pressure oil prices [8][9] - The overall sentiment in the oil market remains cautious, with expectations of weak price performance unless geopolitical situations worsen significantly [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the collective decline in domestic crude oil-related products is primarily driven by concerns over demand outlook, geopolitical factors, and OPEC+ production increases [1][2][3] Group 2 - Demand outlook is pessimistic, particularly in the U.S., which is the largest consumer of crude oil, overshadowing the potential positive effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the reinstatement of UN sanctions on Iran and comments from U.S. President Trump, are contributing to market fears regarding oil supply stability [1][2] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, with a planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October, leading to a persistent oversupply in the market [1][2] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is shifting from tight to loose, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes and developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations influencing commodity markets [2] - OPEC+ production in August reached 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day from the previous month, contributing to the oversupply situation [2] - Geopolitical risk premiums are rising due to escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may further impact oil prices [2] Group 4 - Future OPEC+ production policies remain uncertain; increased production could exacerbate supply pressures, while reduced production might alleviate oversupply [3] - Seasonal demand changes are expected as the summer peak electricity demand in Middle Eastern countries ends, leading to decreased crude oil power generation needs [3] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global economic recovery and subsequent oil demand will be crucial to monitor [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts an expansion of global crude oil supply surplus to 1.9 million barrels per day by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 1.7 million barrels per day, driven by increased supply from the Americas outpacing reductions from Russia and rising global demand [1] Group 1: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil at an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively for the next year [1] - The risk for price forecasts from 2025 to 2026 is considered to be two-sided but slightly tilted towards the upside [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [1] - The primary reason for gradually lifting production cuts is attributed to low commercial inventories in developed countries [1] - While a complete removal of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day is possible, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to flexibly pause increases in production quotas starting January next year, anticipating a significant rise in OECD commercial inventories in the fourth quarter [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil tankers and ports have raised geopolitical concerns, providing short - term support for oil prices. Trump's statement about sanctions on Russia if European countries stop importing Russian oil also boosts oil prices in the short term. However, the medium - to - long - term outlook remains pessimistic as institutional monthly reports warn of crude oil supply surplus in the second half of the year. Short - term oil prices are expected to trade in the 482 - 492 range, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US talks in Madrid are unlikely to achieve substantial breakthroughs. Ukraine attacked Russia's Primorsk port. The market is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week, but investors have priced in a series of rate cuts until 2026. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.76 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.23 per barrel. The basis was $42.12 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, against an expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels. EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.365 million barrels in the week ending September 5. As of September 12, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels. Overall, the inventory situation is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the average, showing a neutral signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 9, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump said he is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil. He believes this can help end the war and save lives [5]. - The market is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week. However, investors have priced in a series of rate cuts until 2026. The market expects the Fed to convey a dovish tone, but due to inflation and tariff impacts, Fed Chairman Powell and other officials may signal that investors are too radical, which could lead to asset price re - pricing [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil tankers and ports raise geopolitical concerns, and Trump's statement about sanctions on Russia provides short - term support for oil prices [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariffs is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil are $66.99, $62.69, 479.2 yuan, and $68.59 respectively, with changes of $0.62 (0.93%), $0.32 (0.51%), - 9.50 yuan (- 1.94%), and - $2.34 (- 3.30%) compared to the previous values [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oils are $67.81, $62.69, $69.76, $63.72, and $69.64 respectively, with changes of $1.40 (2.11%), $0.32 (0.51%), - $1.12 (- 1.58%), - $1.11 (- 1.71%), and - $1.17 (- 1.65%) compared to the previous values [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show fluctuations. API inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, and EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels in the same period [3][10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 9, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 81,844, a decrease of 20,584 compared to the previous period [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 9, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 209,578, a decrease of 41,476 compared to the previous period [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Cautiously Optimistic" investment rating [3][4]. Core Insights - OPEC's actual production increase is lower than expected, leading to an anticipated stable oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in the medium term [4][5]. - The upstream sector shows signs of recovery with oil prices rising, while drilling day rates remain stable [4][24]. - The refining sector is experiencing mixed results, with some product margins improving while others decline [4]. - The polyester sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve [4][18]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $66.99 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 2.27%, while WTI futures rose by 1.33% to $62.69 per barrel [4][24]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.42 million barrels to 425 million barrels, remaining 4% lower than the five-year average [24][25]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs increased by 2 to 539, although this is a decrease of 51 rigs year-on-year [35][38]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $16.66 per barrel, down by $1.41 from the previous week [4]. - The price spread between gasoline and WTI crude oil fell to $18.30 per barrel, down by $2.48 from the previous week [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses [4]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 4606.6 CNY per ton, down 2.02% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][18]. - In the refining sector, it suggests monitoring quality companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][18]. - For upstream exploration and production, it highlights companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation as having strong prospects [4][18].

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - The U.S. is proposing to impose tariffs of up to 100% on purchases of Russian oil to persuade President Putin to end military actions in Ukraine [1] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, but supply surplus expectations are becoming a key factor affecting oil prices [3][4] - OPEC+ is still in an expansion phase, planning to increase production in October, which may lead to a supply surplus [4][5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The end of the oil consumption peak season is expected to reduce demand by 1 to 3 million barrels per day compared to peak season [4] - U.S. commercial crude oil entered a stockpiling phase in late August, with significant increases in inventory reported [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil prices are more affected by global shipping demand, which is under pressure due to escalating global trade tensions [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The main trading logic in the energy and chemical sector remains focused on the oil supply surplus [5] - Oil, fuel, and low-sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to have further downside potential, influenced by U.S. shale oil production costs and OPEC+ production policies [5] - The macroeconomic environment may improve with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, potentially boosting global economic growth and oil demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing oscillations, and the intraday trend being weakly oscillating [1][5] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2510 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillation, oscillation, and weakly oscillating respectively, with a reference view of weak operation. The core logic is that supply surplus dominates, leading to a weakly oscillating crude oil market [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is weakly oscillating, and the medium - term view is oscillating, with a reference view of weak operation. The OPEC+产油国's latest monthly report shows that in August, the average OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day in July. Since the production increase started in April, OPEC+产油国 has cumulatively increased production by 1.48 million barrels per day. After the bearish expectation of increased supply outweighs geopolitical risks, domestic and international crude oil futures prices declined slightly on Thursday night. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed 1.45% lower at 481.6 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ will continue to increase production, with the first - stage production increase plan likely to end around autumn this year. Global crude oil supply surplus signs will gradually appear, bringing long - term bearish pressure on oil prices. However, oil prices may spike in the short - term due to geopolitical factors. Oil prices may remain under pressure in the second half of the year and perform weaker than in the first half [5][11]. Content Summaries Based on Related Catalogs OPEC+ Production Increase Plan - From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, far lower than the 555,000 barrels per day in August and September. The 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions, and will be carried out gradually [1]. - This year, OPEC+ has implemented multiple production increase plans. From April to September, the cumulative increase is 2.467 million barrels per day, covering the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction in 2024. The production increase in October will start the process of restoring the 1.66 million barrels per day reduction quota, originally planned to last until the end of 2026 [5]. Production Increase Execution - As of July, the actual production increase of OPEC+ was 916,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 66.8% of the latest production increase plan from April to July. The actual production increase from April to July was lower than the planned amount [7]. Oil Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since late January, Brent crude oil has shown a volatile downward trend. Factors include OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, geopolitical tensions, US tariff policies, and OPEC+ production increase announcements [8]. - In August, due to the easing of geopolitical situations and continuous OPEC+ production increases, international crude oil prices oscillated at a low level [9]. Other Institutions' Views on Future Oil Prices - Deutsche Bank expects WTI crude oil price to stay at $62 per barrel, $3 lower than Brent [12]. - HSBC maintains its forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025, but the downside risk from increased market supply surplus is rising [12]. - SOCAR believes the biggest uncertainty in the current crude oil market comes from geopolitical risks [12]. - Capital Economics expects a large surplus in the oil market in Q4 this year and Brent crude to fall to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the oil supply surplus in 2026 will increase from 1.7 million barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, and the average prices of Brent and WTI crude will reach $56 and $52 per barrel respectively [14]. - S&P expects Brent crude to drop to about $55 per barrel by the end of the year [15].