Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Due to geopolitical situations and cold weather, crude oil prices are oscillating strongly. However, the market is still in a state of oversupply, and the EIA's latest January report has raised the expected surplus for 2026. Traders should be aware of significant price fluctuations and manage risks [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025, suspending production increases in February and March 2026. Despite the off - peak demand season, winter storms led to an unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories and a slight increase in refined oil inventories, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories. US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day, about 15% of the national production, last weekend due to the storms. The IMF raised the 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude, which currently has little impact on global supply and demand. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran on the 23rd and has not ruled out military action. The Iranian military will conduct live - fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1 - 2. The Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan will restart, but only half of its capacity will be restored by February 7 [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 0.81% to 470.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 465.8 yuan/ton and a high of 499.6 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4265 to 44117 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price forecast by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On January 28, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 decreased by 2.295 million barrels, against an expected increase of 1.848 million barrels, and were 2.94% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels, against an expected increase of 1.009 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels, against an expected decrease of 583,000 barrels; heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels, against an expected increase of 279,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its November 2025 crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week ending January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, near the historical high. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a 0.08% decrease from the same period last year, with the decline narrowing. Gasoline weekly production increased 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 8.266 million barrels per day, a 0.39% decrease from the same period last year. Diesel weekly production increased 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 3.721 million barrels per day, a 4.78% decrease from the same period last year. The increase in gasoline and diesel production led to a 2.49% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to geopolitical situations and cold weather, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [1] - In the off - season of crude oil demand, affected by winter storms, EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased slightly, and the overall oil product inventory decreased [1] - U.S. oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production last weekend due to winter storms, about 15% of the national production [1] - The International Monetary Fund recently raised the 2026 world economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns [1] - Global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The EIA's latest January monthly report raised the 2026 crude oil supply - surplus margin [1] - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1] - The U.S. Treasury announced a new round of sanctions on Iran on the 23rd, and there is a possibility of military action. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East, and Iranian armed forces are on full alert. Iranian geopolitical risks are rising [1] - Zelensky said that the talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia in the UAE were constructive. The U.S. trade representative said that India needs to do more to eliminate U.S. concerns about its purchase of Russian oil and obtain tariff exemptions [1] - The Kazakhstan Energy Ministry said that the safety restart of the Tengiz oil field's power supply system has been confirmed, and the CPC No. 3 offshore mooring terminal's maintenance is completed, but the operator said that only half of the field's production capacity can be restored before February 7 [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 3.69% to 472.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 461.1 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 145 to 48,382 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of January 28, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.848 million barrels), 2.94% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.009 million barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels (expected to decrease by 583,000 barrels); heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels (expected to increase by 279,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its November 2025 crude oil production was lowered by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, and is near the historical high [4] - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased [4] - Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.78% month - on - month to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year [4] - Diesel weekly production increased by 15.47% month - on - month to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year [4] - The week - on - week increase in gasoline and diesel production drove the week - on - week increase of the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products by 2.49% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on January 29, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with significant increases in precious metals and base metals, while some contracts like polysilicon and lithium carbonate declined. In the stock index futures market, some contracts rose and some fell, and in the bond futures market, most contracts showed slight increases. Considering geopolitical situations, weather impacts, and supply - demand relationships, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly, and various chemical products will also show different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of January 29, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with沪银up over 8%,沪金nearly 8% up, and international copper over 7% up. In terms of declines, polysilicon dropped over 4% and lithium carbonate over 3%. In the stock index futures market, IF rose 1.00%, IH rose 1.88%, IC fell 1.14%, and IM fell 0.52%. In the bond futures market, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.01%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.09%. As of 15:18 on January 29, funds flowed into contracts such as中证1000 2603 and沪铜2603, and flowed out of沪铝2603 and碳酸锂2605 [6][7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Each Variety 3.2.1. Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Although it is the off - season for oil demand, due to winter storms, U.S. crude inventories decreased more than expected. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026, and cold weather pushed up diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. However, the global floating oil storage is high, and the supply is still in excess. The U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran, and the geopolitical risk is rising. Considering these factors, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3.2.2. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8%, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased. The downstream operating rates mostly declined, and the national shipments increased slightly. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. Venezuelan heavy crude supply is restricted, and some refineries in Shandong stopped production. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse - arbitrage [11]. 3.2.3. PP - As of the week of January 23, the PP downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate was about 79%. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. Due to the rise in crude oil prices and improved market sentiment, PP will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [12][15]. 3.2.4. Plastic - On January 29, the plastic operating rate was about 89%. As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Plastic will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [13][15]. 3.2.5. PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The export orders increased significantly, but the inventory pressure is still large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. PVC has insufficient upward momentum in the short term [16]. 3.2.6. Urea - Today, urea prices opened low and closed high. The spot price continued to rise, and some factories stopped selling. In early February, there will be gas - head plants resuming production, and the output is sufficient. Agricultural dealers are taking goods actively, but the compound fertilizer factory operating rate has decreased. The inventory is slightly decreasing. The overall fundamentals are supportive, but a callback should be watched out for [17][18].

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The report predicts that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate due to a combination of factors such as OPEC+ production plans, US inventory changes, geopolitical risks, and global supply - demand adjustments [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026 - The EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continued to rise - US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production due to winter storms, about 15% of the national output - The IMF raised the 2026 world economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns - Global floating crude oil storage is high, and the EIA's January report raised the expected surplus of crude oil supply in 2026 - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but its impact on the global supply - demand is currently limited - The US imposed new sanctions on Iran on January 23, and there is a possibility of military action, raising geopolitical risks in the region - The power supply system of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field is expected to restart, and the CPC No. 3 offshore mooring terminal has completed maintenance, but the oil field can only resume half of its production capacity by February 7 [1] [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 2.49% to 460.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 463.4 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 74 to 48,237 lots [2] [Fundamental Tracking] - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day - As of the week ending January 16, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.602 million barrels (expected: 1.131 million barrels), 3.24% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 5.977 million barrels (expected: 1.705 million barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 3.348 million barrels (expected: - 0.162 million barrels); heating oil inventories increased by 0.279 million barrels (expected: - 0.745 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.478 million barrels [3] [Supply - Side Information] - OPEC's November 2025 oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day - US crude oil production in the week of January 16 decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 13.732 million barrels per day, near the highest historical level - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.68% decrease from the same period last year - Gasoline weekly production decreased by 5.66% to 7.834 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 8.218 million barrels per day, a 0.57% decrease from the same period last year - Diesel weekly production decreased by 13.96% to 3.524 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 3.549 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease from the same period last year - The supply of US crude oil products decreased by 3.98% week - on - week [4]

【期现行情】 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2026年1月27日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，同时汽油库存累库幅度继续 超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高位附近。美国能源部长 赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需求并防止能源贫困。 近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求 担忧有所缓解。不过，全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA最新的1月月报上调了2026 年原油供应过剩幅度。雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于全球原油供需影 响不大。美国财政部23日宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措施，涉及多家与石油相关的公司和多艘油 轮。目前美国并未排除采取军事行动的可能性，美航母打击群已抵达中东地区，伊朗官员称伊武装 力量已进入全面戒备状态，伊朗地缘风险再次升温，伊朗原油产量较大，关注伊朗局势，另外，泽 连 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced slight declines amid market uncertainty, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, remaining a significant factor influencing the market [4][19]. Market Dynamics - On Monday, WTI crude oil futures closed at $60.63 per barrel, down $0.44 or 0.72%, while Brent crude oil futures fell by $0.30 or 0.46% to $64.77 per barrel [21]. - The Chinese SC crude oil futures also saw a decrease, closing at 450.10 yuan, down 0.18% [18][21]. - The market is currently characterized by volatility, with geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions contributing to fluctuations in oil prices [4][20]. Geopolitical Factors - Reports indicate that Iran's Supreme Leader has moved to a secure underground facility, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is on high alert, suggesting ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][19]. - Israel has indicated that a "sensitive period" is approaching, with potential military actions against Iran speculated for the second quarter [4][19]. Weather Impact - An extreme winter storm has significantly affected U.S. energy supplies, leading to a reduction in both oil and natural gas production [24]. - The storm is expected to cut natural gas production by 86 billion cubic feet over the next two weeks, with North Dakota's oil production decreasing by 80,000 to 110,000 barrels per day [24]. OPEC+ Production Policy - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current production levels in response to global supply surplus and geopolitical risks, with no immediate plans to adjust output despite ongoing tensions in Venezuela and Iran [26][10]. - The organization is prepared to respond quickly to any significant supply disruptions that may arise [26]. Supply Recovery - Kazakhstan's largest oil field, Tengiz, is set to resume production, which has contributed to a decline in Middle Eastern benchmark crude prices [20][26]. - The resumption of production at key oil fields is expected to ease previous supply constraints that had supported higher oil prices [26]. Natural Gas Market - U.S. natural gas futures surged to a ten-year high due to extreme cold weather, with prices rising 14% to $6.014 per million British thermal units [22][23]. - The market is experiencing significant supply disruptions, with nearly 10% of U.S. natural gas production affected [23]. Conclusion - The oil market remains under pressure from geopolitical tensions and weather-related supply disruptions, leading to a complex trading environment characterized by volatility and uncertainty [4][20][24].

受伊朗大范围动荡以及哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯实施供应限制影响，今年以来国际油价小幅走高，周一布伦 特原油期货报每桶约66美元。不过当前油价仅较去年11月初高出1美元——彼时OPEC+宣布一季度暂停 增产，并称此举是为应对季节性需求放缓。 伊朗国内爆发示威活动，当局对抗议者实施严厉的弹压，不过目前该国石油行业尚未受到任何影响。与 此同时，委内瑞拉原油近一年来首次运往欧洲。 责任编辑：李肇孚 OPEC+代表表示，受全球原油供应过剩及地缘政治风险频发影响，该组织预计在周日召开会议时，维 持下月原油产量稳定的计划。 以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的核心成员国将召开月度视频会议，审议去年快速恢复产能后于11月首次敲 定的一项决议——今年一季度维持产量冻结状态。 四位不愿具名的代表表示，他们预计相关政策将维持不变，不过其中两人补充称，成员国间尚未就此展 开讨论。 一名代表指出，目前尚无迹象表明需要对本月成员国委内瑞拉和伊朗境内发生的动荡事件作出回应。但 另一名代表称，若出现大规模供应中断，石油输出国组织及其合作伙伴或会提高产量。 OPEC+代表表示，受全球原油供应过剩及地缘政治风险频发影响，该组织预计在周日召开会议时，维 持下月原油 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 康远宁 下行风险：俄乌和谈达成协议，宏观黑天鹅事件 市场分析 本期三大机构平衡表依然指向2026年供应过剩在200至300万桶/日之间，但由于当前石油市场的二元分 化结构以及中国持续的囤油需求，过剩主要体现在制裁油端，合规油累库力度仍有待观察，短期中东局 势依然紧张，美国持续在中东地区布兵，对伊朗的打击可能箭在弦上，伊朗不同于委内，由于其地缘位 置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木兹海峡，因此油价对伊朗局势的敏感性远大于委内瑞 拉。 需求：EIA对2026年需求增长预估为114万桶/日，较上月预测下修10万桶/日，中国需求增长21万桶/日， 印度需求增长29万桶/日，亚太其他国家不含中日印需求增加26万桶/日，美国需求增长持平，中东需求 增长6万桶/日，非洲需求增长20万桶/日，拉美需求增加15万桶/日。OPEC预计2026年全球需求同比增长 138万桶/日，较上月基本持平。OPEC认为印度需求增长22万桶/日，中国需求增长19万桶/日，中东需求 增长16万桶/日，拉美需求增长13万桶/日，非洲需求增长16万桶/ ...

宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应过剩主导，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母绕过马六甲海峡，赶赴中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，中东地缘 风险再度增强。由于市场担忧全球原油 ...

早上好，原油市场传来利空，金价再创新高！ 22日晚，美国能源部长赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需 求并防止能源贫困。他强调了全球能源供应和获取方面面临的重大挑战。 谈及美伊关系时，特朗普称，伊朗方面有意与美国接触，并暗示双方可能恢复外交沟通。特朗普在出席 所谓"和平委员会"相关活动时称："伊朗确实想谈，我们也会谈。"但他未就对话的具体形式、时间或议 题作出进一步说明。 俄乌局势方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，乌克兰、美国和俄罗斯的三方会谈将于23日在阿联酋举行， 他表示这是技术层面的会谈。据悉，此次三方会谈将持续两天。 据悉，美国总统特使威特科夫和特朗普女婿库什纳与俄罗斯总统普京的会晤将于23日进行。 此外，威特科夫表示，俄乌和平进程已取得重大进展，如今已到了最后阶段，他保持乐观态度。在访问 俄罗斯之后，他将前往阿联酋，参加美、俄、乌三方工作组会议。 受此影响，国际油价下跌。 截至今晨收盘，WTI原油期货主力合约下跌1.57%，布伦特原油期货主力合约下跌1.23%。 贵金属方面，伦敦金现货价格收涨3.31%，报4935.75美元/盎司；伦敦银现货价格大涨近6%。沪金、沪 银 ...