Market Overview - The average price of asphalt in the domestic market is expected to be 3375 CNY/ton on November 17, reflecting a decrease of 32 CNY/ton, or 0.94% from the previous day [1] - The total operating rate of asphalt in China has decreased by 0.7% to 29.0%, while the operating rate in Shandong has increased by 6.8% to 35.4% [1] - Social inventory among 70 sample enterprises is reported at 825,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 72,000 tons [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, indicating a consensus on the oversupply of crude oil [2] - Refineries are releasing a significant amount of low-priced forward contracts, leading to substantial pressure on spot prices [3] - The operating rate may slightly decline due to profit margins falling, and adverse weather conditions are expected to limit downstream demand in certain regions [3] Price Outlook - The current market sentiment is cautious, with weak spot prices and a neutral basis for asphalt in Shandong [2] - Given the dual decline in supply and demand, with supply decreasing at a slower rate than demand, the outlook for asphalt prices remains bearish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [3] - The supply surplus pattern of crude oil has become more of a consensus, with OPEC adjusting the global oil situation in Q3 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA predicting that oil demand growth will slow down in Q4 while supply will further increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. Production increase will be suspended in Q1 next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. This will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in Q1 next year [3] - Saudi Aramco comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, being cut by $1.20 per barrel [3] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. US crude oil production continued to reach a new historical high [3] - The US has changed its attitude towards Russia. The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and their subsidiaries, which is expected to limit Russia's crude oil exports. However, Trump has recently stated that he hopes to continue the meeting with Putin in Budapest. India may reach a new tariff agreement with the US and agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have led to a continuous rise in European gasoline and diesel prices. Attention should be paid to Russia's crude oil export situation [3] - The military stand - off between the US and Venezuela has escalated, with the Ford Strike Group arriving in the Caribbean Sea [3] - The end of the consumption peak season, the month - on - month decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and its continuous contraction for eight months have raised market concerns about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and exports from the Middle East are increasing, so the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus pattern [3] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in September was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 2,842,700 barrels per day. Its production in October 2025 increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,846,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait [14] - OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day month - on - month compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [14] - US crude oil production in the week of November 7th increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 1,386,200 barrels per day, continuing to reach a new historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 798,000 barrels month - on - month to 410.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has increased for 16 consecutive weeks [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cuts - Logan: It is difficult to support an interest rate cut in December, and it is not appropriate to provide more preventive protection to the labor market through interest rate cuts [18] - Milan: The data supports an interest rate cut, and the Fed should be more dovish [18] - Schmid: Further interest rate cuts may have a lasting impact on inflation; concerns about inflation go far beyond the tariff issue [18] - Former Fed Governor Kugler faced an ethics investigation before resigning [18] Performance of European and American Refined Oil - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe increased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively, while the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the same period last year, and the decline compared to the same period last year has narrowed [29] - The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 1.74% to 9.028 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 8.82 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.56% compared to the same period last year [29] - The weekly demand for diesel increased by 8.30% to 4.018 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 3.789 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the same period last year. The rebound of gasoline and diesel demand drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 2.03% month - on - month [29] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the early morning of November 14th, US EIA data showed that as of the week ending November 7th, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.96 million barrels and 4.01% lower than the five - year average [37] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 945,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.888 million barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 637,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 2.028 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 346,000 barrels [37] - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase [37] Geopolitical Risks - On the 14th local time, Israeli fighter jets carried out two air strikes on Rafah in southern Gaza [43] - After a two - day suspension, Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations on Sunday [43] - Iranian Foreign Minister: Currently, Iran has no ongoing uranium enrichment activities and no undeclared uranium enrichment facilities [43]

发布时间：2025年11月17日 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.7个百分点至29.0%，较去年同期低了2.0个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。 据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减 幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥青开工环比下降1个百分点至33%，略超去年同期水 平，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华北地区供应减少，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少31.02%至21.3万吨， 处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比转而小幅上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。山东胜星等炼厂计划 转产渣油，沥青开工率将维持低位。北方气温持续下降，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转弱，南方项目增 量有限。欧佩克将2025年三季度全球石油从短缺40万桶/日调 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Crude Oil Futures: Supply Glut, Geopolitical Instability - Author: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International oil prices fluctuated slightly in the week ending November 14, 2025. The prices rose in the first half of the week due to factors such as increased Chinese crude oil imports in October, a weaker US dollar, and the US government's progress in ending the shutdown, as well as ongoing sanctions on Russia and infrastructure attacks in Ukraine. However, they declined in the second half after the OPEC monthly report forecast a supply glut [2]. - Despite the downward pressure from the overall supply glut in the crude oil market, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy facilities introduce uncertainties and partially offset the downward pressure, leading to a volatile and fluctuating price trend in the short - term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level of 470 yuan/barrel for the 01 contract [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - As of November 14, 2025, SC2601, Brent, and WTI oil prices were 463.6 yuan/barrel, 64.39, and 59.39 US dollars/barrel respectively. SC2601 and Brent prices rose slightly from the previous weekend, while WTI fell slightly [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Crude Oil | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 463.60 | 460.60 | 3 | 0.89% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 65.19 | 65.12 | -0.07 | -0.08% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 64.29 | 63.70 | 0.59 | 0.93% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 59.81 | 59.67 | -0.03 | -0.05% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13651 | 211 | 1.55% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 427581 | 421168 | 6413 | 1.52% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 704 | 528 | 171 | 33.33% | Weekly | [4] Market Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of different crude oil products (SC, Oman, Brent, WTI), their spreads, as well as relationships with factors like the US dollar index. Also, charts display supply (OPEC and US production, US rig counts), inventory (OECD and US inventories), demand (refinery inputs, utilization rates in the US, China, Europe, and India), and cost - profit (refinery profits) aspects [6][12][18][25][33]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (11.10-11.14) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 展望 期货行情 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡运行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶59.81美元，周涨0.93%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶64.29美 元，周跌0.05%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶461.7元，周涨0.24%。OPEC方面表示，由于美国原油产量超预期增长等原因，目前全球市场已从每 日供应短缺40万桶转为每日供应过剩50万桶，进入结构性供应过剩。除OPEC以外，EIA也预计市场将供过于求，预计今年和2026年美国石油产量 平均为1360万桶/日，高于之前预估的1350万桶/日。EIA解释称 ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年11月16日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：年底或仍有深度调整， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 关注俄油出口情况 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：年底或仍 ...

Group 1: Tariff Reduction and Economic Impact - The U.S. President Trump signed an order to lower tariffs on various goods including beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas to reduce grocery costs in response to voter pressure [1] - The tariff reductions apply to products that the domestic supply cannot meet, including hundreds of food items like coconuts, nuts, avocados, and pineapples, effective from November 13 [1] - This decision reflects a shift in Trump's policy focus towards affordability measures amid growing voter concerns about the economy and acknowledges that previous tariff policies increased consumer price pressures [1] Group 2: Oil Market Volatility - The oil market has experienced significant fluctuations due to various complex factors, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping sharply before rebounding [3] - The initial drop was attributed to OPEC's monthly report indicating a supply surplus, while the subsequent rebound was linked to increased sanctions on Russia and drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, creating supply uncertainties [3][4] - A key Russian port, which accounts for 20%-30% of its crude oil exports, was attacked, impacting short-term exports and driving oil prices up [3] Group 3: Supply and Price Outlook - The oil market is facing a definitive supply surplus pressure, but geopolitical conflicts and sanctions are causing supply disruptions, leading to volatile price movements [4] - Analysts predict that oil prices may test previous lows and could potentially drop below $50 per barrel in the coming months due to ongoing supply concerns and economic pressures [4] - OPEC's forecast indicates a potential supply surplus by 2026, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its supply surplus expectations for next year to approximately 4 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Traders are advised to maintain short positions and monitor opportunities arising from rising oil shipping rates and cross-regional price spreads [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [5]. Core Views - The market is concerned about oversupply amid geopolitical influences, with oil prices experiencing fluctuations due to recent geopolitical events, including attacks on Russian oil facilities and changes in India's oil procurement from Russia [1][10]. - OPEC's latest report indicates a shift in supply-demand dynamics, predicting a global oil demand of 106.5 million barrels per day by 2026, while current supply exceeds demand by 20,000 barrels per day [1][10]. - Three major international oil agencies have raised their forecasts for global supply growth in 2025, indicating a potential oversupply situation [2][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of November 14, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.39 per barrel, up 1.19% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% [3][39]. - The U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.86 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput rising to 15.97 million barrels per day [12][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - EIA, OPEC, and IEA have adjusted their 2025 global supply and demand forecasts, with EIA projecting a supply of 105.98 million barrels per day and demand of 104.14 million barrels per day, resulting in a surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day [2][11]. - OPEC's report suggests a potential supply gap of 830,000 barrels per day if production levels remain constant [2][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with stable performance and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation [4][12]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation increases in companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which has low production costs and increasing output [4][12]. - New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum are recommended due to their growth potential in the domestic market [4][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the crude oil market will remain in a supply - surplus situation, with the price expected to experience weak and volatile fluctuations. The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and rising exports from the Middle East all contribute to the supply - surplus situation. The adjustment by OPEC from a shortage to a surplus in Q3 2025 and the IEA's prediction of slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 further solidify this view [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil to Asia in December. The end of the demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and a record - high US crude oil production all add to the supply pressure. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies, potential changes in India's oil imports, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela also impact the market. The market is concerned about weakening demand due to factors like the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index [1]. - The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.66% to 457.4 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.9 yuan/ton and a high of 462.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 7,385 to 11,067 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA predicts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC adjusted the Q3 2025 global oil situation from shortage to surplus and the 2026 situation from a shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. IEA raised the global crude oil supply and demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - As of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. OPEC's September production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day, while its October production increased mainly due to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ production decreased in October compared to September. US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day in the week of November 7 [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.38%. Gasoline and diesel weekly demand increased, driving a 2.03% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and the crude oil supply surplus situation is becoming more obvious, leading to a decline in crude oil prices and a weakening of the asphalt basis. The spot price is weak, and the market is cautious [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%). Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. With the continuous decline in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken, while the increase in southern projects is limited [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 31.02% week - on - week to 21,300 tons, at a moderately low level [1]. - Price: The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil supply surplus pattern has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. The forward low - price resources of refineries are being released intensively, the asphalt basis in Shandong has weakened recently, and the spot price is weak, causing the asphalt futures price to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.10% to 3,037 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,001 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,021 to 192,751 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 37 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared with the week of November 7, but it remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].