瑞达期货（002961）指出，近月菜籽到港偏少，降低供应压力，且水产养殖旺季，菜粕饲用需求季节性 提升。同时，根据《反倾销条例》第二十八条和第二十九条的规定，调查机关决定对加菜籽采用保证金 形式实施临时反倾销措施。进一步弱化远期供应。不过，豆粕替代优势良好，削弱菜粕需求预期。盘面 来看，在反倾销措施提振下，隔夜菜粕涨停，市场波动加大，偏多思路对待。 方正中期期货分析称，国内后续菜籽买船偏少，菜系有去库存预期，关注中加贸易关系以及我国的后续 裁定。加拿大菜籽在我国菜籽进口量中占比大多年份处于90%以上，中加贸易关系对菜系商品价格影响 较大，短期价格有上行风险。短期价格有上行动力，支撑2600-2610，压力2850-2855。 大越期货表示，菜粕短期受加拿大油菜籽反倾销初步裁定加收保证金影响强势上涨，短期进入震荡偏强 格局，关注后续发展。菜粕RM2601：2640至2688区间震荡。 8月13日，国内期市油脂油料板块全线飘红。其中，菜籽粕期货主力合约开盘报2799.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，菜籽粕主力最高触及2823.00元，下方探低2729.00元，涨幅达3.83%附 近。 目前来看，菜籽 ...

Group 1 - The EU is attempting to negotiate a tariff exemption from the US while using Chinese interests as leverage, but China is demonstrating strategic acumen in this negotiation [1] - During Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the EU, the EU made several demands, particularly regarding rare earth exports, reflecting a Western alliance mindset aligned with US interests [3][6] - China has established a "fast track" for EU companies to expedite the approval process for rare earth resources, showcasing its strategic approach to the rare earth issue [5] Group 2 - Despite the EU's concerns over China's rare earth export controls, the EU remains dependent on Chinese rare earth resources for its high-tech and automotive industries, making a complete break with China unlikely [8] - China has implemented selective control measures on rare earth exports, balancing the need to respond to US unilateralism while maintaining a cooperative relationship with the EU [8] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU brandy products, indicating that the EU cannot expect unconditional concessions from China [9] Group 3 - Overall, China's strategy towards the EU involves a dual approach: easing rare earth controls to alleviate immediate EU concerns while applying targeted anti-dumping measures to exert pressure [10]

Core Insights - The global PVC market is experiencing a significant supply surplus due to increased supply, weak demand, and rising international trade protectionism [2][3] - The imbalance in supply and demand is pressuring PVC prices and pushing many producers, especially in the U.S., towards unsustainable profit margins [2][4] - The U.S. is facing a dramatic shift in trade patterns, with anti-dumping measures from multiple countries hindering its traditional role as a major PVC exporter [3][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current global PVC supply far exceeds demand, necessitating rationalization of production capacity [5] - Despite a projected 8% growth in domestic PVC demand in the U.S. for 2024, the local market is insufficient to absorb existing production capacity [5] - The ongoing expansion in East Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia is contributing to increased production capacity, which is not supported by demand growth expectations [5] Trade and Regulatory Environment - Anti-dumping measures are reshaping global PVC trade flows, particularly affecting U.S. exports to Europe and other key markets [3] - Recent increases in import tariffs, such as Brazil's PVC tariff rising from 8.2% to 43.7%, pose significant challenges for U.S. producers [3] - The European and UK markets are tightening access to U.S. PVC, effectively closing doors to American exports [3] Cost Structure and Profitability - European and Asian integrated PVC producers have total costs that are 20% to 30% higher than those of U.S. producers, primarily due to differences in natural gas and electricity prices [4] - Current global PVC spot prices are below the production costs for many companies, indicating unsustainable profitability across the industry [4] - The only recent positive aspect in the PVC market has been temporary shipping arbitrage opportunities due to disruptions in the Red Sea [4]

Group 1 - The document outlines anti-dumping measures related to the product "cresol" in the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and Japan, initiated in 2021 and set to expire in January 2026 [2] - The measures are categorized as anti-dumping and are part of a broader regulatory framework aimed at protecting domestic industries from unfair competition [2] - The announcement includes specific details such as the starting date of the measures and the relevant countries involved in the cases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The extent of Canada's anti-dumping measures will depend on the progress of negotiations with the United States regarding a new economic agreement [1] Group 1 - Canada's Prime Minister Carney indicated that the implementation of anti-dumping measures is contingent upon the outcomes of discussions with the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurasian Economic Commission has decided to extend the anti-dumping measures on galvanized steel products originating from China and Ukraine for an additional five years, with specific tax rates established for each country [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping measures on galvanized steel from China will have tax rates ranging from 12.69% to 17.00%, while the rate for Ukraine is set at 23.90% [1][2]. - The measures are now effective until June 9, 2030, following the extension [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - The anti-dumping investigation on galvanized steel products from China and Ukraine was initiated on June 29, 2018, leading to the initial measures announced on December 6, 2019 [2]. - A price commitment was reached with five Chinese companies, allowing them to avoid the anti-dumping tax, which took effect on January 5, 2020, and was initially set to expire on January 4, 2025 [2]. - The first sunset review investigation was launched on September 2, 2024, and the measures were temporarily extended until September 1, 2025, before the latest five-year extension was confirmed [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has decided to implement anti-dumping measures on imported chlorpyrifos originating from India, following an investigation that found significant dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry [1] Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The Ministry initiated an anti-dumping investigation on May 7, 2024, based on applications from the domestic industry [1] - The investigation was conducted in accordance with legal regulations and WTO rules, ensuring that all stakeholders' opinions were considered [1] - The conclusion of the investigation indicated that there was serious dumping of chlorpyrifos from India, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry, with a causal relationship established between dumping and the damage [1] Group 2: Anti-Dumping Duties - The anti-dumping duties imposed on Indian companies range from 48.4% to 166.2% [1] - The anti-dumping measures will take effect on May 7, 2025, and will be in place for a duration of five years [1]