Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **General Market Situation**: The international rapeseed futures market rebounded technically, while the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets are affected by factors such as import policies, supply and demand, and international trade relations. The market volatility has increased, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply - side pressure, but the reduction in planting area provides support. In the domestic market, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals, the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, and the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed weaken the supply. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, concerns about palm oil production and strong export data affect the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain prices. But low oil mill operating rates and reduced near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9727 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2521 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5496 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 169 yuan/ton, unchanged; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 115 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 6931 lots, down 8304 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 15798 lots, up 11682 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 4487 pieces, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 5041 pieces, down 1000 pieces [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9870 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7896.61 yuan/ton, up 28.48 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.73, up 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 79 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 470 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - **Profit and Operating Rates**: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 733 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons, down 0.1 tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.4 tons, down 0.1 tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 4.85 tons, down 0.05 tons. The coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 tons, up 0.4 tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory was 30.86 tons, down 2 tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, down 1.4 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.26 tons, down 0.55 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.89 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly output of feed was 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.48%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.47%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 32.19%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.91%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 12.14%, down 0.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 12.15%, down 0.97%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 18.35%, down 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.38%, down 0.12% [2]. Industry News - The ICE rapeseed futures rebounded technically on September 2, with the most actively traded November contract rising 3.90 Canadian dollars to settle at 630.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The Pro Farmer report predicted that the average yield of US soybeans would reach a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, indicating stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. - Statistics Canada predicted that the rapeseed production in Canada in 2025 would increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, and China's anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed might affect its exports [2]. - The expansion of protests in Indonesia raised concerns about palm oil production and transportation, while strong export data from Malaysia supported the palm oil market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure persists due to the expected high yield of US soybeans, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. In China, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada and China - US trade negotiations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil support the palm oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain the price. The low - level operation of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease the supply - side pressure. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken the long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and the focus is on trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil active contract is 9766 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 4711 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. - Monthly spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 169 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 106 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 258,258 lots, down 5291 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 398,350 lots, down 5972 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 1373 lots, down 4424 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 27480 lots, down 5159 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: There are 4487 warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil, up 600; and 6041 for rapeseed meal, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9895 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7868.13 yuan/ton, up 9.98 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.71, down 0.02; the basis of rapeseed oil main contract is 64 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal is - 0.1 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.4 million tons, up 4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 55.4 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.85 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.26 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.89 million tons, up 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal is 19.53%, down 0.11% and 0.12% respectively; that for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 1.29% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.23%, up 0.09%; the 60 - day is 21.87%, up 0.04%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.93%, up 0.49%; the 60 - day is 14.5%, up 0.13% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the continuation of anti-dumping measures on imported phenol from the United States, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand, effective from August 29, 2025, for a period of five years [2][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping tax rates for phenol imports are as follows: - United States: 244.3% - 287.2% - EU: 30.4% - South Korea: 12.5% - 23.7% - Japan: 19.3% - 27.0% - Thailand: 10.6% - 28.6% These rates are consistent with the previous announcements [1][4]. - The Ministry of Commerce has determined that if the anti-dumping measures are terminated, the likelihood of continued or renewed dumping of phenol from the aforementioned countries remains, which could harm the Chinese phenol industry [2][3]. Group 2: Product Information - Phenol is an important organic chemical raw material used in the production of phenolic resins, bisphenol A, caprolactam, alkylphenols, and salicylic acid, among others. It is also utilized as a solvent, reagent, and disinfectant across various industries including synthetic fibers, plastics, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, fragrances, dyes, coatings, and refining [4]. Group 3: Implementation and Compliance - From August 29, 2025, importers of phenol from the specified countries must pay the corresponding anti-dumping duties to the Customs of the People's Republic of China, calculated based on the customs-determined taxable price of the imported goods [3][6]. - The calculation formula for the anti-dumping tax is: Anti-dumping tax amount = Customs-determined taxable price × Anti-dumping tax rate [6]. Group 4: Legal Recourse - Parties dissatisfied with the review decision may apply for administrative reconsideration or file a lawsuit in the People's Court according to the Anti-Dumping Regulations [7]. Group 5: Effective Date - This announcement will take effect from August 29, 2025 [8].

Group 1 - Canada has implemented steel tariff quota measures and imposed discriminatory tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components," leading China to file a lawsuit at the WTO on August 15 [1][5] - The trade dispute between China and Canada has escalated, with China recently announcing temporary anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds [1][5] - The Canadian government has been facing challenges in its trade relations with China since the previous Trudeau administration imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [1][3] Group 2 - Canada has expanded its steel tariff quota and tightened existing quotas, imposing additional taxes on imports exceeding the quota, particularly targeting products containing Chinese steel [3][5] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Canada is projected to be approximately CAD 120 billion, with significant steel import and export figures [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has criticized Canada's actions as unilateralism and trade protectionism, which disrupts the stability of global steel supply chains [5]

瑞达期货（002961）指出，近月菜籽到港偏少，降低供应压力，且水产养殖旺季，菜粕饲用需求季节性 提升。同时，根据《反倾销条例》第二十八条和第二十九条的规定，调查机关决定对加菜籽采用保证金 形式实施临时反倾销措施。进一步弱化远期供应。不过，豆粕替代优势良好，削弱菜粕需求预期。盘面 来看，在反倾销措施提振下，隔夜菜粕涨停，市场波动加大，偏多思路对待。 方正中期期货分析称，国内后续菜籽买船偏少，菜系有去库存预期，关注中加贸易关系以及我国的后续 裁定。加拿大菜籽在我国菜籽进口量中占比大多年份处于90%以上，中加贸易关系对菜系商品价格影响 较大，短期价格有上行风险。短期价格有上行动力，支撑2600-2610，压力2850-2855。 大越期货表示，菜粕短期受加拿大油菜籽反倾销初步裁定加收保证金影响强势上涨，短期进入震荡偏强 格局，关注后续发展。菜粕RM2601：2640至2688区间震荡。 8月13日，国内期市油脂油料板块全线飘红。其中，菜籽粕期货主力合约开盘报2799.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，菜籽粕主力最高触及2823.00元，下方探低2729.00元，涨幅达3.83%附 近。 目前来看，菜籽 ...

Group 1 - The EU is attempting to negotiate a tariff exemption from the US while using Chinese interests as leverage, but China is demonstrating strategic acumen in this negotiation [1] - During Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the EU, the EU made several demands, particularly regarding rare earth exports, reflecting a Western alliance mindset aligned with US interests [3][6] - China has established a "fast track" for EU companies to expedite the approval process for rare earth resources, showcasing its strategic approach to the rare earth issue [5] Group 2 - Despite the EU's concerns over China's rare earth export controls, the EU remains dependent on Chinese rare earth resources for its high-tech and automotive industries, making a complete break with China unlikely [8] - China has implemented selective control measures on rare earth exports, balancing the need to respond to US unilateralism while maintaining a cooperative relationship with the EU [8] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU brandy products, indicating that the EU cannot expect unconditional concessions from China [9] Group 3 - Overall, China's strategy towards the EU involves a dual approach: easing rare earth controls to alleviate immediate EU concerns while applying targeted anti-dumping measures to exert pressure [10]

Core Insights - The global PVC market is experiencing a significant supply surplus due to increased supply, weak demand, and rising international trade protectionism [2][3] - The imbalance in supply and demand is pressuring PVC prices and pushing many producers, especially in the U.S., towards unsustainable profit margins [2][4] - The U.S. is facing a dramatic shift in trade patterns, with anti-dumping measures from multiple countries hindering its traditional role as a major PVC exporter [3][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current global PVC supply far exceeds demand, necessitating rationalization of production capacity [5] - Despite a projected 8% growth in domestic PVC demand in the U.S. for 2024, the local market is insufficient to absorb existing production capacity [5] - The ongoing expansion in East Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia is contributing to increased production capacity, which is not supported by demand growth expectations [5] Trade and Regulatory Environment - Anti-dumping measures are reshaping global PVC trade flows, particularly affecting U.S. exports to Europe and other key markets [3] - Recent increases in import tariffs, such as Brazil's PVC tariff rising from 8.2% to 43.7%, pose significant challenges for U.S. producers [3] - The European and UK markets are tightening access to U.S. PVC, effectively closing doors to American exports [3] Cost Structure and Profitability - European and Asian integrated PVC producers have total costs that are 20% to 30% higher than those of U.S. producers, primarily due to differences in natural gas and electricity prices [4] - Current global PVC spot prices are below the production costs for many companies, indicating unsustainable profitability across the industry [4] - The only recent positive aspect in the PVC market has been temporary shipping arbitrage opportunities due to disruptions in the Red Sea [4]

Group 1 - The document outlines anti-dumping measures related to the product "cresol" in the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and Japan, initiated in 2021 and set to expire in January 2026 [2] - The measures are categorized as anti-dumping and are part of a broader regulatory framework aimed at protecting domestic industries from unfair competition [2] - The announcement includes specific details such as the starting date of the measures and the relevant countries involved in the cases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The extent of Canada's anti-dumping measures will depend on the progress of negotiations with the United States regarding a new economic agreement [1] Group 1 - Canada's Prime Minister Carney indicated that the implementation of anti-dumping measures is contingent upon the outcomes of discussions with the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurasian Economic Commission has decided to extend the anti-dumping measures on galvanized steel products originating from China and Ukraine for an additional five years, with specific tax rates established for each country [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping measures on galvanized steel from China will have tax rates ranging from 12.69% to 17.00%, while the rate for Ukraine is set at 23.90% [1][2]. - The measures are now effective until June 9, 2030, following the extension [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - The anti-dumping investigation on galvanized steel products from China and Ukraine was initiated on June 29, 2018, leading to the initial measures announced on December 6, 2019 [2]. - A price commitment was reached with five Chinese companies, allowing them to avoid the anti-dumping tax, which took effect on January 5, 2020, and was initially set to expire on January 4, 2025 [2]. - The first sunset review investigation was launched on September 2, 2024, and the measures were temporarily extended until September 1, 2025, before the latest five-year extension was confirmed [2].