近日，一张特别的"门票"正在特斯拉股东间引发骚动——它可能通向一场估值1.5万亿美元的史上最大 IPO。与此同时，在大洋彼岸，一批中国科技公司的创始人正彻夜不眠，准备向证监会递交他们科创板 的招股书。连接这两场资本盛宴的，是同一个关键词：商业航天。 图片来源：视觉中国 2025年的最后一个月，全球资本市场的目光几乎都被这个关键词牢牢锁定。一边是华尔街，投资大亨比 尔·阿克曼提出一项创新方案，计划通过特殊目的收购权（SPARCs），让特斯拉股东能直接投资埃隆·马 斯克的太空探索技术公司（SpaceX），或将权利变现。这被视作SpaceX冲刺史上最大规模首次公开募 股的明确前奏。市场传闻其目标估值高达1.5万亿美元，接近沙特阿美创下的历史纪录。 另一边，中国证监会的官网上，一批名为"蓝箭航天"、"星河动力"、"天兵科技"的企业IPO辅导状态更 新为"完成"，标志着2025年成为"中国商业航天资本化元年"，一场集体登陆科创板的竞速赛已经鸣枪。 两者力量看似颇为悬殊，毕竟SpaceX的单体估值是目前所有冲刺上市的中国商业航天公司总和的数十 倍。但它们指向同一个毋庸置疑的事实：商业航天，这个融合了尖端技术、国家战略与万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress of Blue Arrow Aerospace in the commercial aerospace sector, particularly its completion of IPO counseling, positioning it to become the first commercial aerospace stock on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [4][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - Blue Arrow Aerospace, founded in 2015, is one of the earliest private rocket companies in China, focusing on the development of medium to large liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicles [7]. - The company aims to establish a full industry chain encompassing research, manufacturing, testing, and launching [7]. Group 2: Recent Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace completed its IPO counseling on July 29, 2023, with the support of China International Capital Corporation (CICC), and is expected to submit its prospectus soon [6][7]. - The company successfully launched the world's first liquid oxygen-methane rocket, Zhuque-2, in July 2023, and followed up with the successful first flight of Zhuque-3 in December 2023, marking a breakthrough in reusable rocket technology [8][14]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Zhuque-3 is designed for large satellite constellations, featuring a reusable design that allows for up to 20 launches, with a goal to reduce the cost per kilogram to below 20,000 RMB [9][10]. - The rocket's development timeline is notably rapid, with the entire process from project initiation to first flight taking approximately 28 months [9]. Group 4: Market Context - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing a wave of IPOs, with several companies, including Star River Power and Zhongke Aerospace, also preparing for market entry by 2025 [5][16]. - The article notes a significant gap in launch costs, with current market rates for satellite launches ranging from 50,000 to 150,000 RMB per kilogram, indicating a potential market opportunity for Blue Arrow Aerospace's cost-effective solutions [10][11]. Group 5: Investment Landscape - Blue Arrow Aerospace has attracted over 500 million RMB in investments within its first three years, with a current valuation of 20 billion RMB, supported by prominent investors such as Sequoia China and Matrix Partners [15]. - The recent policy changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to support unprofitable companies in the commercial aerospace sector have further fueled interest in IPOs within this industry [15][16].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今日A股截至收盘，上证指数涨0.53%，深证成指涨0.88%，创业板指涨0.77%。全市场成交额18972亿元，较上日成交额缩量241亿元。 市场热点轮动较快，全市场超4100只个股上涨。 板块题材上，电源、商业航天板块活跃，贵金属、海南板块调整。 一起来看一下今天的市场热点。 01 场内基金连续三天涨停，溢价70%！ 在今天，虽然贵金属板块回调了，但是商品市场，金价，银价，铜价均创历史新高。而且白银碾压黄金，成为今年涨幅最高的贵金属品种。年初至 今，伦敦银现涨幅高达150.07%。 值得关注的是，最近由于白银市场火热，而场内白银基金仅有一只：国投白银LOF。就造成了这只基金从12月22日到今天连续三日涨停，溢价高达 68.16%。 | 国投白银LOF | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 161226 已收盘 12-24 15:04:03 北京 | | | | | | | | 3.116 +0.283 +9.99% | | | | 2.93万人加自选 > | | | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful first flight of the Long March 12A rocket marks a significant step in China's commercial space sector, aiming to enhance the capabilities of reusable rockets and address the growing demand for low-cost, high-frequency satellite launches in the trillion-dollar market [2][3][5]. Group 1: Launch and Technology Development - The Long March 12A rocket's maiden flight achieved basic success, with the second stage entering the designated orbit, although the first stage was not successfully recovered [2]. - The launch signifies the entry of state-led reusable rocket technology into the competitive landscape, aiming to facilitate a transition to a low-cost, high-frequency launch era [2][3]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards optimizing launch and operational costs, with a focus on the development of reusable rockets and satellite mass production [3][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The competition in the commercial space sector is intensifying, with a focus on not just successful launches but also on the stability of delivery capabilities and reliability of new commercial rockets [6][9]. - Companies are exploring different strategies and technologies, such as the use of various propellants, to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of their rockets [7][11]. - The market is expected to evolve towards a comprehensive industrial system, emphasizing cost reduction through continuous technological innovation [9][11]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges - The industry is at a critical juncture, moving from a focus on individual rocket success to a broader competition encompassing technological autonomy, production stability, and economic efficiency [9][12]. - The development of large payload rockets and the establishment of a robust satellite constellation are essential for meeting the demands of the rapidly growing satellite internet market [3][12]. - Regulatory improvements and the establishment of a supportive ecosystem are necessary to facilitate the growth of the commercial space sector and address existing bottlenecks [13].

据新华社消息，12月23日10时00分，长征十二号甲遥一运载火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区发射升空， 运载火箭二子级进入预定轨道，一子级未能成功回收，飞行试验任务获得基本成功。长征十二号甲是中 国航天科技集团航天八院研制的可重复使用火箭。 前不久，民营商业航天公司蓝箭航天研制的朱雀三号遥一运载火箭首飞，在国内率先进行了火箭一级回 收验证。朱雀三号按程序完成了飞行任务，火箭二级进入预定轨道，但回收试验失败。后续，蓝箭航天 对外披露一子级回收验证的关键技术细节。这次试验通过飞行过程积累的飞行数据，为后续型号迭代改 进打下了坚实基础，同时验证了复合控制策略以及相应制导算法的正确性。 本文来源：上海证券报 据国家国防科技工业局新闻宣传中心，长征十二号甲是一型以实现"一级重复使用"为核心特征的液氧甲 烷运载火箭。火箭全长约70.4米，一、二级直径均为3.8米，整流罩直径为4.2米，起飞重量约437吨。本 次任务虽未实现预定的火箭一级回收目标，但是获取了火箭真实飞行状态下的关键工程数据，为后续发 射、子级可靠回收奠定了重要基础。研制团队将尽快开展本次试验过程的全面复盘与技术归零，全力查 明故障原因，持续优化回收方案，继续推 ...

注：卫星ETF（159206）成立日期为2025/3/6，早于同类产品，卫星ETF同类指追踪国证商用卫星通信产业指数的所有ETF基金。 基金有风险，投资需谨慎。本文所包含的分析基于各种假设，不同假设可能导致分析结果出现重大不同。在任何情况下，本文中的信息或所表述的意见并不 构成对任何人的投资建议。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 消息面上，由中国航天科技集团八院抓总研制的长征十二号甲（CZ - 12A）可重复使用运载火箭，计划于今日上午执行首飞任务。 此次首飞将同步尝试一级火箭垂直回收。长江证券指出，此次将要发射的长征十二号甲作为我国航天"国家队"或将成功实现可回收火箭发射，从而使我国成 为全球少数掌握可重复使用火箭技术的国家之一。随着我国可回收火箭的技术突破，火箭发射成本有望大幅降低，从而加速我国商业航天产业发展。 卫星ETF（159206）及其联接基金（A类024194，C类024195），聚焦商业航天+卫星通信，有望在"航天强国"背景下率先爆发。卫星ETF（159206）当前规 模超35亿元，是全市场首只且同主题规模最大的卫星ETF，流动性佳，助力投资者一键布局商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is gearing up for significant growth, with five leading companies initiating IPO preparations to challenge SpaceX's dominance in the market, which is currently valued at $1.5 trillion [1][25]. Group 1: Company Valuations and Comparisons - Tianbing Technology leads with a valuation of 22.5 billion yuan, followed closely by Blue Arrow Aerospace at 22 billion yuan, while Xinghe Power, Xingti Glory, and Zhongke Aerospace are valued at 15 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan, and 11 billion yuan respectively, totaling around 85.5 billion yuan, which is only 0.8% of SpaceX's valuation [2]. - The significant valuation gap is attributed to technological differences, as demonstrated by Blue Arrow's recent launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket, which faced recovery issues despite achieving its primary mission [2][19]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace is developing a rocket using high-strength stainless steel, aiming to create a Chinese version of SpaceX's Starship, with the Zhuque-3 rocket capable of delivering 21.3 tons to low Earth orbit [7][10]. - Tianbing Technology is innovating with 3D-printed rocket engines and coal-based fuel, with its Tianlong-3 rocket expected to have a launch thrust of 770 tons [13]. - Xinghe Power has completed 22 launches, making it the most active commercial space company in China, with its main liquid rocket, Zhishen-1, designed for 25 reuses [14][16]. - Xingti Glory has achieved several milestones, including the first successful orbit of a private Chinese rocket and is developing the JD-2 engine to enhance its payload capacity [17]. - Zhongke Aerospace, a mixed-ownership enterprise with strong ties to national research institutions, is producing the Lijian-1 solid rocket, which has set records for satellite launches [18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Chinese commercial space sector is transitioning from a technology validation phase to a period of scaling up, with the collective IPO efforts signaling a new era of development [25]. - The anticipated reduction in launch costs, with Blue Arrow targeting under 20,000 yuan per kilogram, represents a significant competitive advantage over traditional rockets [24]. - Over the next 3-5 years, as reusable technology matures, the launch costs for Chinese rockets are expected to decrease by 50%, narrowing the gap with SpaceX [26]. - The rapid advancements in the Chinese commercial space industry indicate a strong potential for growth and a significant role in the global aerospace market [27][28].

Core Insights - The development of the commercial space industry is becoming a significant force in building a space power in China, with over 600 commercial space companies and an expected industry scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 [1] - Hainan's commercial space industry has achieved rapid development, setting new records in China's space development history, particularly with the successful launch from the Hainan spaceport [1] Geographical and Policy Advantages - Wenchang, located in northeastern Hainan, has unique geographical advantages for space launches, including low latitude and coastal launch capabilities, which can enhance rocket payload capacity by 15% [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port's policies, such as zero tariffs and low tax rates, provide significant support for the commercial space industry, attracting quality enterprises and talent [3] Industry Growth and Projections - By 2027, the Wenchang International Space City is projected to achieve an operating income of 10 billion yuan, reflecting government support and market confidence in the commercial space sector [4] - The Wenchang International Space City has over 700 space-related enterprises, indicating a robust and complete industrial chain from rocket manufacturing to satellite development [4] Collaborative Ecosystem - The commercial space industry in Wenchang is characterized by a collaborative ecosystem involving rocket, satellite, and data chains, which supports the overall development of the sector [6] - The Hainan commercial space launch site has achieved a high launch frequency, with plans to increase annual launch capacity to over 60 by the end of 2026 [6][7] Technological Innovations - Continuous technological and model innovations are driving the rapid development of Hainan's commercial space industry, including reusable rocket technology and satellite mass production [9] - The "Double Curve Three" reusable rocket is under development, aiming to significantly reduce launch costs and improve launch precision [9] Supporting Industries - The establishment of specialized gas production facilities in Hainan is expected to meet the growing demands of the commercial space industry, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability [10] - The integration of space and tourism is being explored, creating a new economic model that combines space exploration with local tourism development [10]

Core Viewpoint - The development of the commercial aerospace industry in China is becoming a significant force in building a strong aerospace nation, with over 600 companies currently in operation and a projected industry scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 [1]. Geographical and Policy Advantages - Wenchang, located in northeastern Hainan Province, is uniquely positioned as the only city in China with both "low latitude and coastal launch" characteristics, providing a significant geographical advantage for commercial aerospace development [2]. - The low latitude of the Hainan launch site can enhance rocket payload capacity by 15%, directly impacting economic benefits and market competitiveness [2]. - The coastal location facilitates the transportation of large-diameter rockets, which is a limitation for inland launch sites due to railway constraints [2]. - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port has introduced favorable policies, including zero tariffs and low tax rates, which lower operational costs and attract quality enterprises and talent [3]. Industry Growth and Projections - By 2027, the Wenchang International Aerospace City aims to achieve an operating income of 10 billion yuan, reflecting government support and market confidence in the commercial aerospace sector [4]. - The Wenchang International Aerospace City has over 700 aerospace-related enterprises, forming a complete industrial chain from rocket manufacturing to satellite development and data application [4]. Infrastructure and Technological Innovations - The Hainan commercial aerospace launch site was built in just 878 days, showcasing China's efficiency in establishing infrastructure [6]. - The launch site has achieved a high frequency of launches, with three launches occurring within 30 days, indicating a robust operational capacity [6]. - The second launch pad is designed to accommodate over 20 rocket models, with plans for additional launch pads to increase annual launch capacity to over 60 by the end of 2026 [6]. - The innovative three-plane measurement launch mode enhances launch efficiency and reduces costs [7]. Future Development and Integration - The Hainan Star Glory Aerospace company is developing a reusable rocket, the "Double Curve Three," which aims to significantly reduce launch costs through advanced technologies [9]. - The establishment of a specialized factory for rocket assembly and testing marks a significant advancement in China's commercial aerospace manufacturing capabilities [7]. - The integration of aerospace with tourism is being explored to enhance the social impact of the aerospace industry and stimulate local economic growth [10].

计算机 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 《商业航天，大国重器—行业深度报 告》-2025.12.11 《重视商业航天产业大趋势—行业周 报》-2025.12.7 《商业航天有望进入高速发展期—行 业周报》-2025.11.30 周观点：商业航天产业催化密集 ——行业周报 | 陈宝健（分析师） | 刘逍遥（分析师） | | --- | --- | | chenbaojian@kysec.cn | liuxiaoyao@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520080001 | 证书编号：S0790520090001 | liuxiaoyao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090001 市场回顾：本周（2025.12.8-2025.12.12），沪深 300 指数下跌 0.08%，计算 机指数下跌 1.14%。 周观点：AI 产业持续繁荣 （1）SpaceX 或将开启史上最大规模 IPO，目标估值约 1.5 ...