Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined slightly. Due to the recent easing of external risks, the risk appetite of the domestic stock market has quickly recovered, greatly weakening the hedging demand for treasury bonds. Coupled with the low short - term expectation of interest rate cuts, treasury bond futures are consolidating at high levels. However, the domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is still relatively solid. In general, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The driving logic is that yesterday's treasury bond futures declined slightly. The easing of external risks and the recovery of the domestic stock market's risk appetite weakened the hedging demand for treasury bonds. With low short - term interest rate cut expectations, treasury bond futures are at high - level consolidation. The weak domestic inflation, insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, and external demand vulnerability require a loose monetary environment in the second half of the year. The short - term movement of treasury bond futures is limited, and they will continue to oscillate [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1] - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Although the long - term upward trend of Treasury bond futures exists due to the need for a loose monetary environment, the short - term upward and downward space is limited, and short - term Treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate weakly; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but short - term interest rate cuts are unlikely [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, most Treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract flat [5] - In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year, showing weak overall performance, which is not conducive to the endogenous growth of domestic demand [5] - Considering the weak domestic inflation, insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, and the impact of tariffs on external demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year. However, due to the capital diversion effect caused by the rising risk appetite of the stock market and the weak short - term interest rate cut expectation, the short - term upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, while ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts rose slightly. The capital market became looser. After the cross - quarter, the capital is expected to remain loose, but it's not enough to break the current low - volatility state. The upcoming reduction in treasury bond issuance also boosts short - term market sentiment, and the bond market has upward potential [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The table shows the current prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, daily position changes, and CTD bonds of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. For example, the T2509 contract had a current price of 109.105, a price change of 0.00%, a trading volume of 64,900, an open interest of 206,020, and a daily position change of - 499 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. The capital market became looser, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - type institutions down by over 4bp to 1.31%, and the seven - day repurchase rate down by over 3bp [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On July 3, the central bank conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 452.1 billion yuan [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS main basis was - 0.0293, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TF main basis was 0.0001, the T main basis was 0.16671, and the TL main basis was 0.2747, all indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which were bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The TF main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The T main contract had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5] 8. Expectation Analysis - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded. In May, the financial data was reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans were significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its second - quarter regular meeting and suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The capital market remained loose [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is generally favorable, with most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declining, and the ultra - long end performing slightly stronger. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.21%. The policy easing pattern remains unchanged, and the money market is expected to be optimistic, leaving room for the bond market to improve. However, it is waiting for new stimulating factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The bond market is warm, with yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly down. Treasury bond futures rose, and the money market changed from tight to balanced. The overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions edged up slightly, while the seven - day repurchase rate dropped 5 bp. The policy easing pattern persists, and the bond market has room to rise [2]. - **Money Supply**: On June 20, the central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 202.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 41.3 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts shows that the cash bonds are at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the TL main contract shows that the cash bonds are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. - **Market Trends**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: The TS and TF main contracts have net long positions with an increase in long positions. The T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. - **Expectations**: In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. The May financial data matches the real - economy operation, and the growth rates of social financing, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. After the impact of the tariff war suspension is quickly released and the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut are implemented, the money market remains loose [4]. 3.2 Main Contract Market Elements | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 109.150 | +0.02% | 88,700 | 293,116 | 4,332 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.275 | +0.02% | 79,000 | 240,303 | 2,851 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.544 | +0.02% | 55,500 | 188,500 | - 1,405 | 240012.IB | | TL2509 | 121.32 | +0.21% | 106,200 | 152,375 | 1,480 | 200012.IB | [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a treasury bond futures morning report released by Dayue Futures on June 6, 2025, covering market review, bond analysis, and future outlook [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts showed different trends. The 30 - year contract (TL2509) dropped 0.16%, while the 5 - year (TF2509) and 2 - year (TS2509) contracts rose 0.02% and 0.04% respectively [7] - The T2509 contract closed at 108.720, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 88,700 and an open interest of 293,116 [7] Group 3: Bond Analysis - Bank - to - bank major interest rates showed a mixed trend. Short - term bonds continued to warm up, with yields dropping over 1bp, while the 10 - year and above bonds were sluggish. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts rose 0.16%, 0.02%, and 0.04% respectively, but the 10 - year contract declined 0.01% [3] - On June 5, the central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan [3] - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were - 0.0721, - 0.0084, and - 0.0138 respectively, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was 0.6076, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] - The available deliverable bond balances of the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 13,594 billion, 14,935 billion, and 23,599 billion respectively, showing a neutral position [3] - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line was upward, showing a bullish signal [3] - The TS main contract had a net long position with increasing longs. The TF main contract had a net long position with increasing longs. The T main contract had a net long position with decreasing longs [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range, and the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. In April, the issuance of government bonds helped accelerate the growth of social financing scale. The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements. After the impact of the tariff war suspension was quickly released and the reserve - requirement and interest - rate cuts were implemented, the capital continued to be loose. With the central bank maintaining quantitative tools, the momentum for continuous adjustment in the bond market was limited. In the future, Treasury bond futures may fluctuate [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall view of "interval oscillation". The short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts is low [1]. - Overall, it is expected that treasury bond futures will mainly maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term. The bottom of treasury bond futures has strong support, but the upside space is limited [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side, and the overall view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is oscillation on the weak side, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued the oscillatory trend yesterday with narrow - range consolidation throughout the day. In the long - term, policy is moderately loose, and the current treasury bond price basically has no implied interest rate cut expectation, so the bottom of treasury bond futures has strong support. However, due to the need to wait for economic indicators to verify the policy effect, the credit demand of the domestic real - sector is weak, and the hawkish Fed's monetary policy suppresses the exchange rate, the short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts in China is low, and the upside space of treasury bond futures is limited [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of treasury bond futures is range - bound. In the short - term, they will mainly be in a consolidation phase. In the medium - to - long - term, the basis for an upward trend is relatively solid with strong bottom support [4]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to the downside". The reference view is "range - bound", and the core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, so it will mainly be in short - term sideways consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "sideways to the downside", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "range - bound". In the medium - to - long - term, due to high external uncertainties, the policy will continue to boost domestic demand, the monetary environment will be supportive, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts, so the upward basis of treasury bond futures is firm. In the short - term, the easing of external tariff wars and the need to test the effects of the central bank's interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts lead to insufficient upward momentum. However, the upward movement of market interest rates is restricted by policy interest rates, so the downward space is limited [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the current situation of the treasury bond futures market and predicts that the treasury bond futures may fluctuate at a high level in the future. The main reasons include the weakening of official and Caixin PMI data, the central bank's clear attitude of liquidity support, the optimistic expectation of the capital market after the May Day holiday, the impact of the US tariff on the global equity and commodity markets, and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. Meanwhile, the central bank's MLF operation and the possible reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates also affect the market [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, and the yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds mostly declined. The overnight and seven - day pledged repo rates of deposit - taking institutions both increased, with the former rising by more than 24 basis points and the latter rising by nearly 2 basis points [3]. - On April 30, the central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.50%. After deducting the 108 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on the same day, the net investment was 422.8 billion yuan [3]. - The main contract price, change rate, trading volume, open interest, daily position increase, and CTD bonds of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures are presented in the table. For example, the price of T2506 is 109.000, with a decline of 0.06%, a trading volume of 91,800, an open interest of 320,953, and a daily position increase of 5,273 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The official and Caixin PMI data both weakened, but the central bank's attitude of liquidity support is clear, and the expectation of the capital market after the May Day holiday is relatively optimistic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the trade war and the subsequent policy trends [3]. - In April, the PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank mentioned the possibility of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates to promote the decline of the comprehensive social financing cost. The financial data in the first quarter was stable and positive. In March, the CPI declined slightly but the decline narrowed, and the core CPI rose moderately. The central bank conducted a scaled - down and flat - price renewal of MLF [5]. 3.3 Basis Analysis - The basis of TS main contract is - 0.320, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of TF main contract is - 0.0400, also indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of T main contract is 0.0341, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of TL main contract is 0.1995, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis The balances of deliverable bonds for TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, which is neutral [4]. 3.5 Market Analysis TS, TF, and T main contracts are all running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. 3.6 Main Position Analysis The net position of TS main contract is long, and the long position increases. The net position of TF main contract is long, and the long position increases. The net position of T main contract is long, but the long position decreases [5]. 3.7 Expectation Due to various factors such as the decline of PMI, the possible reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, the impact of US tariffs, and the issuance of special treasury bonds, the treasury bond futures may fluctuate at a high level in the future [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot bond and futures generally weakened. The end - of - quarter funds were not tight, supporting the short - term bonds to be warm. Most treasury bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.49% and the 10 - year main contract down 0.08%. The performance of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was good, with most yields declining [3]. - The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 28, with an operating rate of 1.50%. The net withdrawal on the day was 14.5 billion yuan [3]. - The LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. The central bank has adjusted the MLF operation method, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank has mentioned the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. Due to the central bank's cautious policy attitude and the uncertainty of subsequent fiscal policies, the volatility of the bond market may increase [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Periodic Bond Market Review - **Fundamentals**: Spot bond and futures generally weakened. The end - of - quarter funds were not tight, supporting short - term bonds to be warm. Most treasury bond futures closed down, and the performance of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was good [3]. - **Funding situation**: On March 28, the central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.50%. The net withdrawal on the day was 14.5 billion yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts showed that the spot bonds were at a discount to the futures, which was bearish, while the basis of the TL main contract showed that the spot bonds were at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The balances of deliverable bonds for TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Market trend**: The main contracts of TS, TF, and T were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main positions**: The net positions of TS and TF main contracts were long, with an increase in long positions, while the net position of the T main contract was long, with a decrease in long positions [5]. - **Expectation**: The LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. The central bank has adjusted the MLF operation method and mentioned the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond market volatility may increase due to policy and fiscal uncertainties [5]. 2. Market Review - **Contract details**: For the T2506 contract, the current price was 107.875, down 0.08%, with a trading volume of 124,200 and an open interest of 296,151; for the TF2506 contract, the current price was 105.650, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 110,400 and an open interest of 257,868; for the TS2506 contract, the current price was 102.446, unchanged, with a trading volume of 56,900 and an open interest of 150,994; for the TL2506 contract, the current price was 116.00, down 0.49%, with a trading volume of 166,100 and an open interest of 164,282 [8]. 3. Spot Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and the maturity yields of inter - bank treasury bonds, but specific numerical analysis is not presented in the text [9][13] 4. Basis Analysis - There are basis data for T2506, TF2506, and TS2506 CTD bonds over a period from September 2024 to February 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not presented in the text [15][16][17]