国信证券近日发布家电行业2026年2月投资策略：近期铜等原材料价格上涨引发市场对白电龙头盈利的 担忧，通过复盘此前几轮周期发现，原材料成本上涨对毛利率的负面影响逐渐减弱，白电龙头通过结构 调整、费用节省等方式，盈利能力有望穿越周期。2026年1月，以SHFE铜和SHFE铝收盘价月均值计 算，铜价和铝价同比分别上涨36.7%和20.9%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 白电1-2月排产降幅收窄，政策拉动下需求有望企稳。据产业在线数据，2月我国白电合计排产量达到 2379万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降22.1%；1-2月合计排产量预计下降5.0%。环比2025Q4排产10%以 上的降幅来看，白电排产表现有所修复。分品类看，2月空调内/外销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分 别-38.1%/-26.5%，合计排产量1149万台，较去年同期产量下降31.6%，1-2月累计下降10.3%；冰箱内/外 销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分别-17.1%/-8.0%，合计排产量600万台，较去年同期产量下降17.0%，1- 2月累计下降6.4%；洗衣机内/外销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分别-5.9%/+1.5%，合计排产量630万台， ...

新春临近，越来越多地区的家庭正通过电商平台，足不出户享受"国补"政策红利。 近日，六十多岁的岛上居民孙阿姨夫妇，收到了一份新春年货，一台大尺寸智能电视。 据介绍，这台智能电视叠加"国补"优惠与旧机抵扣，比原价节省了近500元。新电视将为老两口的日常生活增添欢声笑语。 隆冬时节，辽宁大连长海县小长山岛笼罩在凛冽的海风中。这座海岛远离陆地，冬季船班时常受风浪影响调整，与对岸的往返交通耗时 久，且充满不确定性。 ...

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite recent challenges [5][3] - Rising raw material prices, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to have a limited impact on the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers, as historical data shows diminishing effects over time [1][17] - The report anticipates that the overall gross margin decline for white goods companies will be less than 2 percentage points due to price adjustments and cost-saving measures [1][17] Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%, but the rate of decline is improving compared to previous months [2][24] - The cumulative production decline for January and February is estimated at 5%, showing signs of recovery driven by government subsidy policies [2][24] - The report highlights that the demand for white goods is expected to stabilize and recover as the effects of national subsidy policies continue to manifest [2][24] Retail Market Performance - The retail scale of China's home appliance market is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with small appliances showing relatively better performance [2][31] - Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are experiencing significant declines in retail sales, while kitchen small appliances are expected to see growth [2][31] Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Stone Technology and Bear Electric in the small appliances sector [3][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong overseas growth potential and solid domestic performance, particularly those benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [12][14] Company Profitability Forecasts - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and TCL Smart Home, among others [4][50] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies suggest favorable valuations compared to historical averages, supporting the investment thesis [4][50]

2026年第一大消费趋势为折扣驱动型消费，"抢便宜"成为主流诉求，真折扣产品备受消费者青睐。政策层面，2026年将实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换 新政策，家电、数码和智能产品等均有补贴，专家预计相关资金规模将上调，补贴形式和范围或进一步优化。 第二大趋势是焦虑驱动型消费，传统"口红效应"呈现新载体。玩具乐器类目2025年退货后销售额达350亿+，潮玩盲盒、手办等品类年销额增速超50%，新IP 持续带动销售；天然水晶等玄学相关品类增长迅猛，年销额增速最高超370%；均价不高的随身把件热销，潮流把件、传统把件等品类均实现大幅增长；奶 茶果茶成为消费者"自我奖励"的重要选择，中国新茶饮市场规模超3500亿元，相关企业营收和门店扩张表现亮眼。 今天分享的是：Nint任拓：2026年三大电商消费趋势报告 报告共计：24页 2026年电商消费趋势报告总结 Nint任拓《2026年三大电商消费趋势报告》基于2025年某主流电商平台15个主流实体消费品行业数据，回顾了整体消费表现并展望未来趋势，核心呈现"抢 便宜""稳心态""爱自己"三大消费方向。 2025年该平台退货后销售额同比增速达41%，其中服饰内衣、智能家居等8个 ...

■"银发经济"新浪潮：适老化设计如何催生"青春化"市场 银发经济，一头连着经济发展，一头牵系民生福祉。截至2024年底，全国60岁及以上老年人口达3.1亿人，预计到2035年，这一群体数量将超4亿 人，银发经济规模有望突破30万亿元。这个庞大群体催生的，远不止于传统的养老与照护需求，更是一个向往活力、快乐与自我实现的"青春 化"新市场。记者观察到，一场从"被动养老"到"主动享老"的消费变革，正从供给侧悄然发生。 在浙江义乌的电商平台上，一批专为老年人设计的益智玩具，正成为新的增长点。 ■"新国补"激发购车热 助力车市"开门红" 新年伊始，新一轮"国补"政策正式落地。今年，申领汽车报废更新补贴旧车的注册登记时间进一步放宽。汽车以旧换新补贴方式从定额补贴调整 为按照新车售价比例给予补贴，报废更新最高补2万元，置换更新最高补1.5万元。这意味着购买价值更高、技术更先进的节能环保新车的消费 者，能够获得相对更高额度的补贴支持。 在河北，今年保定市共有290余家汽车销售企业参与以旧换新活动，1至2月，保定市共安排补贴资金14652万元，确保政策真正惠民利企。 在河南省漯河市，当地组织55家知名汽车销售品牌联动推出"厂家 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the home appliance industry, specifically for white goods, black goods, and two-wheeled vehicles [1]. Core Insights - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks has slightly increased, with a Q4 holding ratio of 3.14%, up by 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter. The over-allocation ratio for home appliances is 0.74%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points [10][9]. - The report anticipates that the continuation of national subsidy policies in 2026 will support domestic sales, while leading home appliance companies are expected to accelerate penetration into emerging markets such as Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, leading to steady growth in export revenues [10][9]. - The white goods sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, with a Q4 market value accounting for 1.58% of total fund holdings, up by 0.23 percentage points. The number of funds holding white goods stocks has increased by 79 [18][17]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, are expected to benefit from stable performance and high dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [63][64][65]. Summary by Sections Home Appliance Sector - The report indicates a slight recovery in the proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks, with a Q4 holding ratio of 3.14% and an over-allocation ratio of 0.74% [10][9]. - The white goods sector has seen a recovery in fund holdings, with a market value of 1.58% of total fund holdings, and an increase in the number of funds holding these stocks [18][17]. - The black goods sector has also experienced a slight increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 0.22%, up by 0.03 percentage points [28][29]. - The two-wheeled vehicle sector has seen an increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 0.74%, up by 0.08 percentage points [32][35]. Investment Recommendations - For white goods, the report recommends Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their strong performance and high dividend yields [63]. - In the black goods sector, companies like Hisense Visual and TCL Technology are highlighted for their technological leadership in the MiniLED field [63]. - For two-wheeled vehicles, the report suggests focusing on Ninebot, Aima Technology, and Yadea Holdings, as market demand is expected to concentrate on leading companies [63]. - In the kitchen small appliances sector, companies like Supor, Bear Electric, and Beiding Co. are recommended for their growth potential through brand expansion [63]. - The report also highlights electric tools companies such as Techtronic Industries and Greebo for their expected order growth due to rising market demand [63].

Group 1 - JD's instant retail platform, JD Seconds, has fully implemented the 2026 national subsidy program across 15 provinces, allowing consumers to access a dedicated subsidy section in the JD app for purchasing 3C digital products with efficient delivery services [1] - The products eligible for the subsidy include computers, mobile phones, tablets, smartwatches, and fitness bands from major brands such as Apple, Xiaomi, Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Lenovo [1] - Consumers can enjoy a subsidy of 15% off the product sales price, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan for computers and 500 yuan for mobile phones, tablets, and wearable devices [1] Group 2 - Since the implementation of the national "Two New" policy in 2024, JD has invested nearly 30 billion yuan to support the rural subsidy program, effectively promoting consumption growth in county areas [2] - In 2026, JD aims to leverage its supply chain and instant retail network to further promote the national subsidy policy, contributing to consumer stimulation and high-quality economic development [2]

Core Insights - JD's instant retail platform, JD Seconds, has fully implemented the national subsidy program for 2026 across 15 provinces, including major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, allowing consumers to purchase 3C digital products with efficient delivery services [1][8] Group 1: National Subsidy Program - The subsidy allows consumers to receive a discount of 15% off the product's sales price, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan for computers and 500 yuan for mobile phones, tablets, and wearable devices [9][10] - Popular brands such as Apple, Xiaomi, Huawei, OPPO, and Lenovo are included in the subsidy program, offering various hot-selling models [9][10] Group 2: Delivery and Consumer Experience - Trained delivery personnel will provide door-to-door service, including on-site signing and activation assistance for consumers purchasing subsidized products [2][9] - Over 10,000 brand specialty stores have joined the service system to enhance the consumer experience [2] Group 3: Investment and Economic Impact - Since the implementation of the national "Two New" policy in 2024, JD has invested nearly 30 billion yuan to support the subsidy program in rural areas, effectively boosting county-level consumption [10] - JD aims to leverage its supply chain and instant retail network to further promote the subsidy policy and contribute to economic growth [10]

Core Insights - JD's instant retail platform, JD Seconds, has fully adopted the national subsidy program for 2026, launching in 15 provinces including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, allowing consumers to purchase 3C digital products with efficient delivery services [1][2] Group 1: National Subsidy Program - The subsidy allows consumers to receive a 15% discount on product prices, with maximum subsidies of 1500 yuan for computers and 500 yuan for mobile phones, tablets, and wearable devices [1][2] - Popular brands such as Apple, Xiaomi, Huawei, OPPO, and Lenovo are included in the subsidy program, offering various hot-selling models [1][2] Group 2: Delivery and Service Enhancements - Consumers purchasing subsidized products will receive delivery from specially trained JD Seconds riders, who provide on-site signing and activation assistance [2] - Over 10,000 brand specialty stores have joined the service system to enhance consumer experience [2] Group 3: Investment and Economic Impact - Since the implementation of the national "Two New" policy in 2024, JD has invested nearly 30 billion yuan to support the subsidy program in rural areas, effectively promoting consumption growth in county regions [2] - JD aims to leverage its supply chain and instant retail network to further promote the subsidy policy and contribute to economic high-quality development [2]

在京东秒送上，参与本次国补活动的商品覆盖电脑、手机、平板、智能手表、手环等3C数码产品，苹 果、小米、华为、OPPO、vivo、小天才、联想等主流品牌多款指定热销机型均可选购。 在补贴力度方面，消费者使用国补可按产品销售价格的15%享受补贴，其中电脑类产品单件补贴至高 1500元；手机、平板、智能穿戴等产品单件补贴至高500元。除国补直降外，消费者在京东秒送换新 机，还能叠加平台券和京东白条分期免息，进一步降低购机成本。比如消费者在京东秒送上购买原价 5999元的iPhone17手机，使用国补能够立减500元，并由秒送专业骑手提供送货上门服务；联想热卖的 拯救者系列电脑，使用国补下单最高能立减1500元。 此外，在京东秒送购买国补产品的消费者，将由经过专项培训的秒送骑手送货上门，并可享受现场签 收、协助激活等一站式服务。目前全国已有上万家品牌专卖店接入该服务体系，共同助力消费体验升 级。 自2024年国家"两新"政策实施以来，京东在商务部等相关部委指导下，持续投入资源保障补贴高效落 地。2025年，京东已累计投入近300亿元支持国补进乡村，有效促进县域消费增长。 扬子晚报/紫牛新闻记者 徐晓风 校对 王菲 近 ...