Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is operating steadily despite increased volatility and differentiation in the international financial market, with cross-border capital maintaining a net inflow, although the scale has decreased compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In January, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus decreased by 20% compared to the previous month [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, fell by 28% compared to the previous month [1] - The foreign exchange market remains active with stable expectations, and cross-border capital flows are becoming more stable [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Seasonal factors influenced a rapid increase in enterprise receipts and settlements at the end of the year, but growth has recently slowed as demand is gradually released [1] - The net inflow of funds under the goods trade category decreased by 27% compared to the previous month, while the net outflow under the services trade category increased by 23% [1] - The net inflow of funds under the securities investment category remained stable [1]

日本最高外汇事务官员三村淳表示，尽管本周日元走强，日本政府仍对外汇市场动向保持高度警惕。三 村淳周四上午表示："我们完全没有放松警惕。"他称，市场上围绕周三公布的美国就业数据及其引发的 市场波动有很多讨论，包括是否存在所谓的"汇率检查"等猜测，但他拒绝就此置评。三村表示："一如 既往，我们将以高度紧迫感密切关注市场动向，并与市场参与者保持紧密沟通。"他还强调，日本方面 也与美国当局保持着密切联系。 ...

每经AI快讯，周三（2月11日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元跌0.83%，报153.12日元，日内绝大部分时间处于 下跌状态，亚太时段持续走低，北京时间21:30发布美国非农就业报告后拉升至154.65日元刷新日高， 随后快速回落，01:33跌至152.56日元刷新日低。欧元兑日元跌0.99%，英镑兑日元跌0.92%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has experienced a significant decline, reaching a 15-year low of 0.7660, driven by a surge in safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. tech stock valuations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Swiss National Bank's cautious stance of maintaining a 0% interest rate has amplified the appeal of the Swiss franc as a safe haven, leading to increased capital inflows [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished the dollar's interest rate advantage, resulting in a shift in market sentiment favoring the Swiss franc over the dollar [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for USD/CHF, with the price breaking below key support levels and approaching critical thresholds that could lead to further declines [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are critical for short-term market movements, with any weak data potentially exacerbating the dollar's decline [2][3] - The Swiss economy is projected to grow at a modest rate of 1.0% in 2026, with low inflation posing challenges for the Swiss franc's continued strength [2] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The Swiss National Bank has indicated a willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the Swiss franc's appreciation harms export competitiveness, creating uncertainty for bullish positions [2] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts have raised concerns about the central bank's independence, impacting market confidence in the dollar [3]

Group 1 - The core impact dimensions include interest rate decisions, where rate hikes strengthen the local currency and attract cross-border capital inflows, while rate cuts weaken the currency and lead to capital outflows [1] - The forward guidance and economic forecasts indicate a hawkish signal with upward adjustments in interest rate and inflation expectations, which can strengthen the local currency [2] - The statements made during press conferences can significantly reverse initial market trends following decisions, especially regarding currency and financial stability [3] Group 2 - The transmission path of impacts includes interest rate arbitrage, where changes in cross-currency interest rate differentials lead to adjustments in carry trades and direct pricing of exchange rates [4] - The market behavior is characterized by three phases: the expectation phase before the decision, the landing phase immediately after the decision, and the digestion phase where the market rationalizes the guidance [5][6][7] Group 3 - Key influences of policy divergence include stronger currencies from central banks that raise rates more aggressively, while dovish signals that lower growth and rate expectations suppress the local currency [8] - A tightening monetary policy leads to a stronger currency, while a loosening policy results in a weaker currency, maintaining the interest rate differential trend [9] Group 4 - Trading and analysis focus on the differences between market expectations and actual decisions, which determine volatility, and the correlation between the yield curve and exchange rate movements [10]

穆迪下调印尼前景展望，印尼盾无本金交割远期外汇(NDF)下跌0.6%。 ...

Global Markets Strategy 30 January 2026 J P M O R G A N FX Markets Weekly Top of mind Q&A for currencies Outlook: Keep bearish USD view. Some consolidation is possible but underlying drivers remain intact. USD weakness is well explained by relative equity returns (Figure 1 USDweakns iwelxpand byrelativ quyretns). USD is undershooting vs. rates but this is typical in procyclical regimes; downplay the latter signal. This is not a 'Sell America' moment; it's about diversification with EM the main beneficiary o ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shanghai's foreign-related economy remained active in 2025, with record highs in foreign-related income and bank foreign exchange settlement and sales [1][2] - In 2025, Shanghai's total foreign-related income through banks reached $5.66 trillion, accounting for over 36% of the national total, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [1] - The total bank foreign exchange settlement and sales exceeded $1.15 trillion, representing over 23% of the national total, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai's goods trade showed strong resilience, achieving a total trade income of over $1 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, surpassing the national growth rate by 2.6 percentage points [1] - The service trade income exceeded $250 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, maintaining the top position in the country and accounting for nearly 30% of the national total [1] - Emerging productive service trade, supported by digital technology and knowledge-intensive factors, showed positive growth in both income and surplus [1] Group 3 - Direct investment in Shanghai remained stable, with foreign direct investment continuing to grow, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in total foreign-related investment income [2] - The cross-border capital flow, primarily facilitated by Shanghai's international financial center, saw a significant increase in securities investment income, growing by over 19% year-on-year and accounting for over 60% of the national total [2] - The foreign exchange market in Shanghai maintained strong resilience, with bank settlement and sales volumes increasing by 21% and 4% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 4 - The demand for enterprises to identify and manage exchange rate risks in cross-border trade and investment increased, with the signing scale of RMB foreign exchange derivative business growing by 9.6% year-on-year [2] - The foreign exchange hedging ratio reached nearly 38%, exceeding the national average by about 8 percentage points, indicating a leading position in the country [2]

Group 1 - The recent dynamics in the foreign exchange market reflect changes in the fundamental policies across the Atlantic and in the East [1]

美国财政部长森特表示"绝对不会"干预日元市场后，日元兑美元汇率大幅下挫，止住了此前连续三天的 涨势。与此同时，他重申美国一贯偏好强势货币，美元随之反弹。此举进一步加剧了本周外汇市场的动 荡。此前特朗普表示不担心美元走弱，引发美元大幅抛售。市场当时也普遍猜测美日官员可能联手干预 以支撑日元。布朗兄弟哈里曼公司全球市场策略主管伊莱亚斯·哈达德表示，无论是否干预，日元整体 前景依然看涨。考虑到经济增长明显超过借贷成本，对日本财政挥霍的担忧有些过度。 ...