穆迪下调印尼前景展望，印尼盾无本金交割远期外汇(NDF)下跌0.6%。 ...

Global Markets Strategy 30 January 2026 J P M O R G A N FX Markets Weekly Top of mind Q&A for currencies Outlook: Keep bearish USD view. Some consolidation is possible but underlying drivers remain intact. USD weakness is well explained by relative equity returns (Figure 1 USDweakns iwelxpand byrelativ quyretns). USD is undershooting vs. rates but this is typical in procyclical regimes; downplay the latter signal. This is not a 'Sell America' moment; it's about diversification with EM the main beneficiary o ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shanghai's foreign-related economy remained active in 2025, with record highs in foreign-related income and bank foreign exchange settlement and sales [1][2] - In 2025, Shanghai's total foreign-related income through banks reached $5.66 trillion, accounting for over 36% of the national total, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [1] - The total bank foreign exchange settlement and sales exceeded $1.15 trillion, representing over 23% of the national total, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai's goods trade showed strong resilience, achieving a total trade income of over $1 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, surpassing the national growth rate by 2.6 percentage points [1] - The service trade income exceeded $250 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, maintaining the top position in the country and accounting for nearly 30% of the national total [1] - Emerging productive service trade, supported by digital technology and knowledge-intensive factors, showed positive growth in both income and surplus [1] Group 3 - Direct investment in Shanghai remained stable, with foreign direct investment continuing to grow, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in total foreign-related investment income [2] - The cross-border capital flow, primarily facilitated by Shanghai's international financial center, saw a significant increase in securities investment income, growing by over 19% year-on-year and accounting for over 60% of the national total [2] - The foreign exchange market in Shanghai maintained strong resilience, with bank settlement and sales volumes increasing by 21% and 4% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 4 - The demand for enterprises to identify and manage exchange rate risks in cross-border trade and investment increased, with the signing scale of RMB foreign exchange derivative business growing by 9.6% year-on-year [2] - The foreign exchange hedging ratio reached nearly 38%, exceeding the national average by about 8 percentage points, indicating a leading position in the country [2]

Group 1 - The recent dynamics in the foreign exchange market reflect changes in the fundamental policies across the Atlantic and in the East [1]

美国财政部长森特表示"绝对不会"干预日元市场后，日元兑美元汇率大幅下挫，止住了此前连续三天的 涨势。与此同时，他重申美国一贯偏好强势货币，美元随之反弹。此举进一步加剧了本周外汇市场的动 荡。此前特朗普表示不担心美元走弱，引发美元大幅抛售。市场当时也普遍猜测美日官员可能联手干预 以支撑日元。布朗兄弟哈里曼公司全球市场策略主管伊莱亚斯·哈达德表示，无论是否干预，日元整体 前景依然看涨。考虑到经济增长明显超过借贷成本，对日本财政挥霍的担忧有些过度。 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司 5000 美元，日内涨0.5%，延续了此前的暴涨行情。此番涨势一方面源于 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普的政策对国际关系格局的重塑，另一方面则是因为投资者纷纷撤离主权债券与 外汇市场。 周一早盘交易中，金价再度走高。上周黄金价格已累计上涨 8.5%，疲软的美元进一步提振了市场对贵 金属的需求。 彭博美元即期指数当周下跌 1.6%，创下自 5 月以来的最大单周跌幅，这使得黄金与白银 对全球多数买家而言变得更加便宜。 现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司 5000 美元，日内涨0.5%，延续了此前的暴涨行情。此番涨势一方面源于 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普的政策对国际关系格局的重塑，另一方面则是因为投资者纷纷撤离主权债券与 外汇市场。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 周一早盘交易中，金价再度走高。上周黄金价格已累计上涨 8.5%，疲软的美元进一步提振了市场对贵 金属的需求。 彭博美元即期指数当周下跌 1.6%，创下自 5 月以来的最大单周跌幅，这使得黄金与白银 对全球多数买家而言变得更加便宜。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to continue depreciating due to concerns over the expansionary fiscal policies of the government led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the persistently low real interest rates in Japan [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Predictions - In a recent survey conducted by QUICK and Nikkei Veritas, 40% of respondents predicted the yen would be the weakest currency among eight major currencies by 2026 [2][4]. - The survey included 173 participants from Japanese financial institutions and companies, with 64 valid responses collected [4]. - The dollar was predicted to be the second weakest currency, with 36% of respondents selecting it, citing factors such as ongoing interest rate cuts and political uncertainties [4][5]. Group 2: Current Exchange Rates - As of January 14, the exchange rate for the yen against the dollar fell to approximately 159.5 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level in about a year and a half [4]. - The yen also depreciated against the euro, reaching an exchange rate of 185.5 yen per euro, the lowest since the euro's inception in 1999 [4]. Group 3: Future Currency Strength - For the strongest currency prediction, the euro ranked first, followed by the Swiss franc, while the Swiss franc was predicted to be the strongest currency in the 2025 survey [5].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government is temporarily exempting banks and financial institutions from the foreign exchange stability tax until June as part of measures to promote the supply of US dollars in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Government Measures - The six-month exemption from the special tax will be retroactive to January 1 [1][2]. - The existing mechanism requires financial institutions to pay taxes when holding foreign currency liabilities above a certain level [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The tax exemption is expected to lower the cost of foreign currency borrowing and increase the supply of US dollars in the foreign exchange market [1][2]. - The measures come as the Korean won continues to depreciate against the US dollar, although it rebounded slightly following a positive statement from President Yoon Suk-yeol about the won [1][2]. - As of 3 PM local time, the exchange rate was 1,470.3 won per dollar, an increase of 9.5 won from the previous trading day [1][2].

人民日报海外版记者 李婕 与此同时，外汇管理服务实体经济质效明显提升。围绕支持外贸稳定发展、深化跨境投资和融资改 革、支持自贸试验区建设3项重点工作，先后出台3个"一揽子"政策共计28项措施。去年四季度这些政策 陆续落地实施以来，全国办理相关便利化业务超2200亿美元。 李斌介绍，国家外汇局扎实推进银行外汇展业改革，更好实现提高业务办理效率和防控风险，参与 改革的银行从2024年末16家扩大至目前的30家，已基本覆盖跨境业务主要经办银行。包括展业改革业务 在内，2025年全年凭企业指令"免审单"办理跨境收支业务2.3万亿美元，较2024年增长33%。此外，将跨 国公司本外币一体化资金池政策推广到全国，完善了境内企业境外上市资金管理，支持企业更加充分利 用国内国际两个市场。 2025年外汇市场交易量达到42.6万亿美元，企业外汇套期保值比率升至30%；2025年9月末，我国 对外资产和负债分别达到11.5万亿和7.5万亿美元……过去这一年，中国外汇市场创下一个个历史新高。 国家外汇管理局新闻发言人、副局长李斌近日在新闻发布会上表示，2025年，面对更加严峻复杂的 外部环境，外汇市场保持平稳运行。下一步，将深化拓 ...

来源：人民日报海外版 作者：李 婕 2025年外汇市场交易量达到42.6万亿美元，企业外汇套期保值比率升至30%；2025年9月末，我国对外 资产和负债分别达到11.5万亿和7.5万亿美元……过去这一年，中国外汇市场创下一个个历史新高。 国家外汇管理局新闻发言人、副局长李斌近日在新闻发布会上表示，2025年，面对更加严峻复杂的外部 环境，外汇市场保持平稳运行。下一步，将深化拓展外汇领域改革开放，努力营造既"放得活"又"管得 好"的外汇政策环境，为"十五五"开好局、起好步贡献力量。 服务实体经济质效提升 一组组数据，勾勒出2025年外汇市场运行情况。 2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金由年初的净流 出转为净流入，全年净流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。 与此同时，外汇管理服务实体经济质效明显提升。围绕支持外贸稳定发展、深化跨境投资和融资改革、 支持自贸试验区建设3项重点工作，先后出台3个"一揽子"政策共计28项措施。去年四季度这些政策陆续 落地实施以来，全国办理相关便利化业务超2200亿美元。 李斌介绍，国家外汇局扎实推进银行外汇展业改革 ...