答：11月以来，国际金融市场延续较高波动态势，美元指数总体走弱，主要非美货币表现偏强。我国外 汇市场继续保持平稳运行。一是外汇市场供求延续基本平衡。11月，银行结汇和售汇规模均保持稳定， 结售汇顺差157亿美元，与10月基本相当。二是跨境收支保持活跃。11月，企业、个人等非银行部门跨 境收入和支出合计为1.3万亿美元，环比增长8%，跨境收支顺差178亿美元，低于9至10月平均240亿美 元的水平。分项目看，货物贸易仍是主要的资金净流入渠道，服务贸易、投资收益、直接投资项下资金 流动保持稳定，近期证券投资项下资金流动更趋平稳。总体看，当前我国外贸外资保持韧性，跨境资金 流动和外汇市场预期平稳，外汇交易稳健有序。 人民财讯12月19日电，日前，国家外汇管理局公布了2025年11月银行代客涉外收付款和结售汇数据。国 家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年11月外汇市场形势回答了记者提问。 问：您如何评价11月以来我国外汇市场运行情况？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable, with a balanced supply and demand, despite fluctuations in the international financial market and a weakening US dollar [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In November 2025, banks settled $209.5 billion and sold $193.8 billion in foreign exchange [1] - From January to November 2025, cumulative bank settlements reached $2,276.9 billion, while cumulative sales totaled $2,180.4 billion [1] - The foreign exchange settlement surplus in November was $15.7 billion, remaining consistent with October's figures [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors totaled $1.3 trillion in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1] - The cross-border balance recorded a surplus of $17.8 billion, lower than the average surplus of $24 billion in September and October [1] - Goods trade continues to be the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows remain stable [1]

国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年11月外汇市场形势答记者问。李斌表示，11月以来， 国际金融市场延续较高波动态势，美元指数总体走弱，主要非美货币表现偏强。我国外汇市场继续保持 平稳运行。一是外汇市场供求延续基本平衡。11月，银行结汇和售汇规模均保持稳定，结售汇顺差157 亿美元，与10月基本相当。二是跨境收支保持活跃。11月，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出合 计为1.3万亿美元，环比增长8%，跨境收支顺差178亿美元，低于9至10月平均240亿美元的水平。分项 目看，货物贸易仍是主要的资金净流入渠道，服务贸易、投资收益、直接投资项下资金流动保持稳定， 近期证券投资项下资金流动更趋平稳。总体看，当前我国外贸外资保持韧性，跨境资金流动和外汇市场 预期平稳，外汇交易稳健有序。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

12月17日亚洲早市，美元兑瑞郎报0.7951，微涨0.0377%，日内波动区间为0.7942-0.7954，呈现窄幅整 理态势。回顾近期表现，汇价在12月11日瑞士央行议息会议后小幅下探，一度触及11月中旬以来低位， 随后陷入震荡，目前市场交投情绪相对谨慎。 此外，全球风险情绪与贸易环境也对汇价形成扰动。作为传统避险货币，瑞郎易受地缘政治与全球经济 不确定性影响，而美国关税政策调整则关乎瑞士出口前景，此前美国对瑞士商品关税税率从39%降至 15%，一定程度上改善了瑞士经济前景。同时，瑞士央行重申仍准备在必要时积极干预外汇市场，这一 表态也为瑞郎走势增添了不确定性。 技术面来看，美元兑瑞郎短期核心波动区间为0.7940-0.7960，0.7940附近构成关键支撑，若跌破或进一 步下探前期低位；上方阻力集中在0.7960-0.7980区间。后续需重点关注美国核心经济数据、瑞士通胀数 据以及美联储与瑞士央行官员的最新表态，这些因素将决定汇价能否摆脱当前窄幅震荡格局。 核心驱动因素聚焦于瑞美央行政策走向、瑞士通胀与经济数据表现及全球风险情绪三大维度：政策层 面，瑞士央行于12月11日连续第二次维持关键政策利率在0% ...

周二（12月16日）纽约尾盘，欧元兑美元涨0.04%，报1.1757，非农就业报告发布后短线出现V形走 势、但整体上延续日内稍早涨势，北京时间23:01刷新日高至1.18上方。英镑兑美元涨0.37%，报 1.3426，美元兑瑞郎跌0.19%，报0.7947。商品货币对中，澳元兑美元跌0.09%，纽元兑美元涨0.15%， 美元兑加元跌0.14%。 ...

美国国债收益率扭转了早前的跌势，收益率在欧洲午盘交易中持稳。Exness的Terence Hove在一份报告 中称，即将公布的数据，包括10月份零售额在内，"预计将为美国经济的内在实力提供更清晰的信号， 此前数周的数据因政府停摆而受到干扰"。目前，市场预期美联储到明年年底将降息两次。"今天的数据 结果可能会改变这些预期，从而推动外汇和债券市场的波动，"该市场策略师说。根据Tradeweb的数 据，两年期美国国债收益率稳定在3.505%，而10年期美国国债收益率下跌0.6个基点，至4.174%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Macro Analysis - In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the fading high base effect and sustained overseas demand [1] - Looking ahead, December's export growth may face high base effects, but optimism remains for next year's overseas demand due to global fiscal expansion and improved China-US trade relations [1] Real Estate Industry - As of December 7, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 720,000 units, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year; Beijing saw 37,000 units (-19%), Shanghai 95,000 units (-5%), and Shenzhen 25,000 units (-33%) [2] - In the secondary housing market, transactions in 10 cities reached 711,000 units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year; Beijing recorded 160,000 units (+1%), Shanghai 236,000 units (+8%), and Shenzhen 64,000 units (+9%) [2] Company Research - For Anjins Food (603345.SH), the forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.391 billion, 1.513 billion, and 1.672 billion yuan, translating to EPS of 4.17, 4.54, and 5.02 yuan, with current P/E ratios of 19, 18, and 16 times respectively [3] - The company's short-term operations are improving, with a gradual recovery in profitability expected as industry price competition eases; if the consumption environment improves next year, performance elasticity is anticipated [3] - New products and channel strategies are actively evolving, with expected positive outcomes in the future, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing subtle dynamics, with the Indian Rupee facing pressure against the US Dollar, while the Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around a two-week low of approximately 99.40, driven by investor expectations regarding future adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2] - Market expectations indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% in December, supported by recent comments from several Fed officials [2] - The potential change in the Federal Reserve leadership is influencing market sentiment, with speculation that if White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett is nominated to replace current Chairman Jerome Powell, it could impact the Dollar's trajectory [2] Group 2 - The focus of the market is on the upcoming release of the US November Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is expected to slightly decline from 48.7 in October to 48.6, indicating potential challenges in manufacturing activity [3] - The Manufacturing PMI is a crucial leading indicator of manufacturing activity, with readings below 50 suggesting contraction, which could reinforce market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3] - Understanding these dynamics is essential for grasping market direction, as expectations for a shift towards looser monetary policy typically exert downward pressure on the Dollar while providing relative support to non-Dollar currencies [3] Group 3 - The monetary policy directions of major global economies are noteworthy, as differing decisions by central banks based on their economic conditions can lead to changes in interest rate differentials, driving capital flows and exchange rate adjustments [4] - Investors should adopt a diversified perspective when observing the market, avoiding excessive focus on a single country or data point [4]

Core Insights - The total foreign exchange market turnover in China for October reached 21.97 trillion yuan, with a cumulative turnover of 252.07 trillion yuan from January to October this year [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market - In October, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total turnover of 21.97 trillion yuan [1] - From January to October, the cumulative turnover of the foreign exchange market in China was 252.07 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: International Balance of Payments - In October, the scale of imports and exports of goods and services in China's international balance of payments was 42,858 billion yuan [3] - The trade surplus for goods was 6,413 billion yuan, while the trade deficit for services was 797 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent stability of the RMB against major currencies is attributed to a lack of significant fluctuations, with the overall market sentiment being calm and steady [1][3]. Group 1: Current Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has been stable, with major currencies showing only minor fluctuations, indicating no significant appreciation or depreciation [1]. - The USD is currently around 7.08, with no drastic changes noted, making it slightly more expensive than before but not excessively so [1]. - The Euro remains weak against the RMB due to ongoing economic recovery challenges in Europe [1]. - The Japanese Yen has shown some strength, influenced by market risk aversion, while the British Pound remains relatively stable post-Brexit [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Exchange Rates - The exchange rate stability is supported by three main factors: 1. **Internal Economic Conditions**: Recent improvements in domestic manufacturing and foreign trade have provided a solid foundation for the RMB [3][5]. 2. **Foreign Investment Attitude**: Increased foreign interest in domestic bonds indicates confidence in the RMB's stability [5][6]. 3. **Policy Measures**: The central bank's approach to maintaining a balanced exchange rate helps stabilize market expectations and emotions [7][8]. Group 3: External Influences - External factors that could impact the exchange rate include: 1. **Uncertain U.S. Policies**: Fluctuating inflation data in the U.S. and potential hawkish stances from the Federal Reserve could strengthen the USD [10][11]. 2. **Global Trade Tensions**: Changes in trade policies may affect export arrangements, leading to short-term market volatility [12]. 3. **Yen Movements**: The performance of the Yen can influence other regional currencies, including the RMB, due to market interconnections [13].