投资策略 +-[Table_MainInfo]科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡 ――A 股市场投资策略周报 | 分析师： 严佩佩 | | SAC NO： | S1150520110001 2025 年 6 月 19 日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | 严佩佩 |  | 市场回顾，近 | 个交易日（6 月 日-6 月 日），重要指数纷纷收跌； 13 19 | | | 5 | | 022-23839070 | | 其中，上证综指收跌 | 1.19%，创业板指收跌 1.95%；风格层面，沪深 | 300 | | | | SAC NO:S1150520110001 | 收跌 | 1.26%，中证 | 收跌 2.12%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区 | | 500 | | | yanpp@bhzq.com | 间内成交 | 6.33 | 万亿元，日均成交额达到 万亿元，较前五个交易日 1.27 | | | | | | ...

分析人士指出，"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力，共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示，社零超预期，一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加，另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法，尽管很多省份进行辟谣，但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳，虽然投资继续放缓，但消费零售表现亮眼，工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计，二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在，稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策，以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中，社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示，1-5 ...

摘要 第一， 5 月经济数据公布。六大口径数据中，消费、服务业高于前值；工业、投资、出口、地产销售低于前值。生产法 之下的 GDP 依旧较高，按照工业增加值、服务业生产指数公布值模拟，实际 GDP 同比大约在 5.35% 左右；支出法 之下的终端需求则有所分化，其中消费明显超预期，出口、投资、地产销售不同程度放缓 。 第二， 工业增加值韧性中放缓。5月同比5.8%，出口放缓所带来从需求向供给的传递可能是原因之一，可以看到同期 产销率有所下降。从主要产品来看，产量增速较高的仍主要是工业机器人、集成电路、太阳能电池、汽车等领域；新兴 产业产品中，增速较低的主要是智能手机，月度和年累计均在同比负增区间。手机内销增速较高，但出口增速较低。水 泥产量同比降幅扩大，反映建筑业投资处于偏弱状态 。 第三， 社零增速出现跃升。 5 月同比达 6.4% ，其中城市消费修复速度更快，城市消费在 2023 年下半年 - 今年 2 月一直弱于农村消费，今年 3 月起开始高于农村， 5 月领先幅度进一步扩大。增速较高的门类包括家电、通讯器材、 文化办公、体育娱乐、家具、金银珠宝、粮油食品、烟酒等，其中家电、通讯器材的增速均处于年内新高 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to increase by 21.13% compared to 2023 [5] - The company emphasizes compliance with information disclosure obligations regarding large contracts [6] Group 2: Development Strategy - The company remains focused on innovation in the mid-to-high-end induction heat treatment sector, with no major changes to its overall planning [7] - The company aims to integrate digitalization and industrialization, enhancing core competitiveness through technological innovation [7] - Future growth will be driven by continuous innovation and product updates, with plans to expand into new fields while maintaining traditional market positions [8]

Industrial Performance - Jiangsu's industrial economy showed strong performance from January to April, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in industrial added value for large-scale industries [1] - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 8%, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing (10.9%), high-tech manufacturing (12.9%), and core digital product manufacturing (11.4%) [1] - Key industries such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing saw growth rates of 14.7%, 11.5%, and 11.6% respectively [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Jiangsu decreased by 0.2% from January to April, but infrastructure investment increased by 10.9% and manufacturing investment rose by 4.7% [1] - Investment in the purchase of large-scale equipment and tools increased by 11.1% year-on-year during the same period [1] Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Jiangsu reached 15,991.9 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.5% from January to April [2] - The "old-for-new" policy boosted retail sales in April, with household appliances and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 13.2% and automotive sales by 9.1%; new energy vehicle sales surged by 59.7% [2] - Year-on-year sales growth in wholesale and retail sectors was 8.5% and 11.3% respectively, while accommodation and catering sectors saw increases of 6.6% and 9.3% [2] Price Trends - In the industrial producer price sector, both the producer's ex-factory prices and purchase prices decreased by 2.5% and 2.3% respectively from January to April [2] - In April, the ex-factory prices and purchase prices fell by 2.8% and 2.7% year-on-year [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of China's "old for new" consumption policy, which has led to increased sales in various sectors, particularly in home appliances and electric vehicles [2][4][5] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Chinese government is actively promoting the "old for new" policy, with a focus on large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, aiming to expand support until 2025 [2][6] - As of April 27, 2025, Shandong province has received subsidy applications totaling 64 billion yuan, resulting in the sale of 544.3 million units of various products [2][5] - The policy has led to substantial growth in retail sales, with electric vehicles, smart home appliances, and smartphones seeing increases of 29.2%, 50.2%, and 54.8% respectively in the first quarter [2] Group 2: Retail Performance - JD Electronics in Jinan achieved over 1 billion yuan in sales during its first month of operation, with 90% of products participating in the national subsidy program [4] - The store's sales during the "May Day" holiday reached 9.6 million yuan, ranking first among 130 flagship stores nationwide [4] - The store has adapted its product offerings based on consumer feedback, focusing on cleaning products and televisions, and has updated about 20% of its inventory [4] Group 3: Regulatory Measures - Shandong has established a cross-departmental regulatory mechanism to prevent fraud related to subsidies, ensuring compliance and timely sharing of information [3][9] - The province has implemented strict measures against businesses that violate pricing commitments or engage in fraudulent activities, including immediate disqualification from the subsidy program [3] Group 4: Financial Support Mechanisms - The Shandong government has introduced a pre-allocation funding system to alleviate the financial burden on retailers participating in the "old for new" program, allowing for immediate subsidy access for consumers [8] - The province has also integrated various resources, including financial institutions and retailers, to maximize consumer benefits and reduce costs [7][8] Group 5: Future Outlook - In 2025, the national government plans to allocate 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to further support the "old for new" policy [6] - The policy will expand to include additional categories of appliances and digital products, enhancing consumer incentives [7]

Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) - The Beijing Tiantan Hospital has established a clinical and translational ward for brain-computer interface technology, marking the first clinical application of BCI in China. The ward will conduct clinical trials and promote the transformation of scientific research into practical applications [1] - BCI technology is recognized as a key core technology for human-machine interaction and is being developed in various fields including bionics, medical diagnosis, and consumer electronics. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined plans to advance BCI technology and products [1] - McKinsey predicts that the global BCI industry could generate up to $200 billion in economic value over the next 10-20 years [1] IPv6 - The Chinese government has set goals for IPv6 deployment by the end of 2025, aiming for 850 million active users and 1.1 billion IoT IPv6 connections. The share of IPv6 traffic in fixed networks is expected to reach 27%, while mobile networks will exceed 70% [2] - The IPv6 market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by policies, technology, and demand, with significant investment opportunities across the industry chain [3] - By 2025, the global number of IPv6 device connections is projected to exceed 7.5 billion, with China's IPv6+ IoT market expected to surpass 250 billion yuan [3] Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) - The Beijing Tongzhou International Seed Industry Science and Technology Park will hold a launch event for the "Jingbanxin 1.0" project, focusing on tomato breeding using solid-phase gene chip technology, which has been dominated by foreign companies [3] - The project aims to enhance China's self-sufficiency in seed technology and reduce reliance on foreign technology, addressing high research costs and technological constraints [4] - The gene chip market is in a growth phase, with China expected to become the second-largest market globally by 2030, supported by technological breakthroughs and favorable policies [4] Macro and Industry News - China dominates the global shipping industry, with eight of the top ten ports for cargo and six for container throughput located in the country [5] - Government bond issuance is accelerating, with a 17.7% year-on-year increase in national government fund budget expenditures from January to April [6] - A new high-proportion renewable energy grid control system has been developed in China, addressing the challenge of integrating large-scale renewable energy into the grid [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance policies for consumer goods replacement and large-scale equipment updates, with a focus on fixed asset investment projects in energy and high-tech sectors [7]

陈玉卢 家电 4 月家电社零数据点评 领先大市-A(维持) 家电行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证家电】空调 5 月内销排产乐观， 出口端中美关税会谈落地-家电行业月度 报告 2025.5.15 执业登记编码：S0760525050001 邮箱：chenyulu@sxzq.com 赵晨希 执业登记编码：S0760521090001 邮箱：zhaochenxi@sxzq.com 政策刺激+住销回暖，家电零售加速领跑 2025 年 5 月 20 日 行业研究/行业快报 事件描述： 国家统计局公布 2025 年 4 月份社会消费品零售数据：4 月份，社会消费 品零售总额 37174 亿元，同比增长 5.1%，其中家电及音像器材类零售额单月 达 914 亿元，同比+38.8%，1-4 月累计零售额达 3,469 亿元，同比+23.9%。 事件点评： 首选股票 评级 行业景气度延续，4 月逆势领跑社零增速。25 年 4 月家用电器和音像器 材类零售额同比增长 38.8%，增速位列全品类第一，显示出超强的增长动能。 纵向对比来看，家电零售额增速延续 24 年四季度以来高速增长态势，25 年 4 月同比 ...

Business Strategy and Growth Plans - In 2025, the company will focus on aligning with national dual carbon goals and energy security strategies, expanding into new energy generation, storage, and other sectors while enhancing its core business with State Grid and Southern Grid [1] - The company aims to deepen management reforms, optimize resource allocation, and establish a comprehensive cost control system to enhance operational efficiency [2] - The company is actively exploring overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to capitalize on the accelerating investment in power grids [2] Technological Advancements - The company has developed a leading electromagnetic transient simulation technology with high precision and efficiency, contributing to revenue through applications in various provincial power research institutes and universities [3] - The new energy power prediction system utilizes multiple forecasting methods to support regional wind and solar power integration [3] Storage Solutions - The company offers comprehensive smart storage solutions, including centralized and distributed energy storage systems, with successful applications in projects like Guohua Xiantao (50MW/100MWh) and CITIC Dicastal Ningbo (1MW/2MWh) [3] Financial Performance and Profitability - Despite stable revenue growth and a solid gross margin, the company faces challenges in net profit, which has struggled to exceed 100 million [4] - The company is implementing management changes and refined operations to improve profitability and enhance product competitiveness [4] Talent Management - The company emphasizes talent acquisition and development, with a structured training system and continuous optimization of recruitment and compensation strategies to boost employee engagement [4] Integrated Solutions - The company provides integrated "light-storage-charging" solutions that combine photovoltaic generation, storage, and charging, aimed at delivering efficient energy services [4] - Successful implementation of the Datang Inner Mongolia Clean Energy Control Platform project is expected to promote further application of smart renewable energy solutions [4]

2025 年工程机械行业分析 联合资信 工商评级三部 |王煜彤 在 2023 年中国工程机械行业下行的背景下，2024 年工程机械行业筑 底企稳，工程机械企业盈利水平有所提升。各类挖掘机和装载机产品销量 均呈增长态势；工程机械产品出口金额保持增长但增速放缓，其中"一带 一路"沿线国家出口景气度维持较高水平，同时新增对外承包工程将有效 拉动工程机械产品出口。2024 年，我国工程机械企业盈利水平有所提升。 未来，海外市场将继续成为国内工程机械企业的重要支撑。 2024 年以来，工程机械行业向数字化、智能化、绿色化加速转型。随 着国家大规模设备更新、超长期特别国债等举措加快落地，相关产业政策 的有效实施，重大工程项目建设全力推进，工程机械行业有望进入复苏阶 段，加之市场上存量机械自然更新淘汰、环保政策趋严、机械取代人工趋 势加深以及出口"情绪"高涨等众多因素的影响下，中国工程机械刚性需 求将持续释放。总体看，预计工程机械行业在 2025 年将整体维持稳定发 展态势。 一、行业现状 2024 年全年国民经济运行稳中有进，房地产开发投资依然不振，但受益于固定 资产投资（不含农户）同比增长，各类挖掘机和装载机产品销量均 ...