Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped to 1520 yuan per bottle, nearing the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, raising speculation about whether the manufacturer is controlling supply to maintain prices. However, the actual reason for the supply halt is that distributors have fulfilled their sales targets for 2025, negating the need for further shipments [2][3]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was at 2678 yuan per bottle in December 2023, but has since fallen by approximately 43% to around 1520 yuan per bottle within two years. The retail prices consumers see online range from 1600 yuan to 1850 yuan [2][3]. - The price decline has been gradual, with the first signs of a price turning point noted four years ago. The price remained stable above 2600 yuan per bottle from 2021 to 2022, peaking above 3000 yuan [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a "temperature" of price decline, with distributors focusing on maintaining their "comprehensive cost line" to avoid losses. The comprehensive cost line for distributors is influenced by the sales of bundled products, which have seen price declines [5][10]. - The outturn price for Feitian Moutai was raised to 1169 yuan per bottle as of November 1, 2023, marking a 20% increase from the previous price of 969 yuan. This price adjustment reflects a broader trend of price increases across the industry [7]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing pressure as the price of Feitian Moutai approaches the official guidance price, with some expressing concerns about their ability to sustain operations if prices continue to fall [15][16]. - The traditional role of distributors as "Moutai transporters" has diminished, with many now needing to adapt to a more competitive environment where they must create value beyond simple sales [11][17]. Future Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding whether the price of Feitian Moutai will drop below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan. Some distributors predict prices will stabilize around 1600 yuan before the Spring Festival, with a slight chance of approaching 1499 yuan afterward [15][16]. - Despite current challenges, there is a belief in the long-term demand for Moutai, with the potential for increased consumer interest as prices decline. The industry is expected to undergo a transformation where distributors will need to innovate and adapt to survive [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped to 1520 yuan per bottle, nearing the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, raising speculation about whether the manufacturer is controlling supply to maintain prices. However, the actual reason for the supply halt is that distributors have fulfilled their sales targets for 2025, negating the need for further shipments [2][3][7]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai was around 2678 yuan per bottle in December 2021, but has since decreased by approximately 43% to about 1520 yuan per bottle by December 9, 2023 [2][4][7]. - The average retail price for consumers on e-commerce platforms ranges from 1600 yuan to 1850 yuan per bottle, indicating a price disparity between wholesale and retail [2]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing a shift from a previously profitable model, where they could easily make profits, to a more challenging environment where they must adapt to declining prices and changing market dynamics [11][20]. - The concept of "comprehensive cost line" is crucial for distributors, as it includes not only the cost of Feitian Moutai but also the sales obligations for other products, many of which are currently sold at a loss [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a "temperature drop," with distributors feeling pressure as prices continue to decline. The concern is whether prices will fall below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [7][16]. - There is a belief among some distributors that if prices drop significantly, it may force manufacturers to adjust their sales strategies, potentially allowing for more flexible payment terms on other products [16]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pessimism, there is long-term optimism regarding the demand for Moutai, as the fundamental consumer interest remains strong. The market may see an increase in buyers as prices decrease [18][20]. - The transition from being mere "Moutai transporters" to providing lifestyle experiences is seen as essential for distributors to remain competitive in the evolving market landscape [13][20].

酒商对于线上白酒大促"只有更低，没有最低"的担忧正成为现实，"双12"临近，线上名酒价格继续下 行，53度飞天茅台补贴后价格已下探至1499元官方指导价甚至更低。 在业内人士看来，市场供大于求的局面下，改变这一现状难度很大。 在部分电商平台，53度飞天茅台补贴后价格已降至1499元/瓶，个别平台甚至推出1399元/瓶的三人团的 团购价。 高企的库存对酒企和经销商的资金链均构成严峻挑战。《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，行业 平均存货周转天数已达900天，较上年同期进一步延长10%。 随着终端动销放缓，渠道库存压力已逐渐传导至价格体系。多地经销商反映，部分白酒品牌出现价 格"倒挂"现象，即批发价低于出厂价，经销商为回笼资金不得不低价抛售甩卖。这种局面进一步侵蚀了 渠道利润，打击经销商信心，形成负向循环。 在贵州茅台2025临时股东大会上，茅台集团党委书记、董事长，贵州茅台党委书记、候任董事陈华带领 管理层现身，详细回应了投资者关心的话题。"初步判断，白酒行业的调整可能还会持续一段时间，短 期内难以迅速好转。"陈华说。 陈华表示："酒企普遍面临渠道库存高企、产品价格倒挂、指标增速放缓等现实问题，行业已经全 ...

在行业下行周期中，业绩承压下高管作为第一责任人，面临着诸多考验。2025年食品饮料行业已掀起一轮高管换帅潮：啤酒 行业中百威亚太杨克、华润啤酒侯孝海、珠江啤酒王志斌相继卸任，行业格局基本完成洗牌；白酒领域的习酒、郎酒、茅 台、洋河、汾酒也先后完成高层调整；饮料行业此前仅有深陷内部纷争的娃哈哈宗馥莉卸任、达利食品许阳阳接班两例，此 次党建离职传闻或意味着换帅之风正吹向饮料行业。 有消息称，一则有关太古可口可乐中国区总裁调任的内部公告在太古饮料流传。公告显示，总裁党建已提出辞呈并获批准， 将于2026年3月底正式离职。其职务将由现任太古饮料东南亚、香港特别行政区及台湾地区市场业务负责人金忆接任。 面对存量竞争与健康化趋势，太古可口可乐正在加速调整产品与渠道结构。党建在此前接受采访时表示，公司将持续扩大低 糖与无糖产品组合，并通过多包装策略及新品类推新以提升市场渗透。与此同时，太古可口可乐还在尝试跨品类合作，在安 徽、湖北承接百威啤酒传统渠道业务，既推动自身销售增长，也为啤酒品牌在弱势市场提升铺货效率。 最新财报显示，2025年上半年太古可口可乐经常性溢利为8.61亿港元，同比微降2%，其中中国内地市场实现溢利同比 ...

社群话题 如何看待2026年的汽车政策与行情 ? 11月部分车企销量环比下滑，没有预计的年底翘尾效应 ，你认为2026年的市场还会有补贴吗？ 如果没有补贴，你觉得2026年新车平均价格是会继续 下降,还是会被迫抬升 ? 精选观点：别杰-汽车研发-车fans从业群(11) 汽车市场正加速从政策驱动转向更为严酷的存量竞争阶段 。展望2026年,补贴退坡与购置税调整两大关键变化将共 同推高购车门槛，宣告行业高增长时代的终结。 具体而言，政策面面临两项核心调整：其一，新能源汽车 购置税优惠将从目前的"全额免征"调整为"减半征收" ，目单车最高减免额度不超过1.5万元；其二，虽然"以旧 换新" 补贴政策可能部分延续，但其额度预计将从现行的 2万元降至1.5万元。这一系列调整将直接转化为消费者购 车成本的上升。据瑞银测算，以一辆售价30万元的新能源 汽车为例，消费者最终需多支出约1.5万元。 政策预期的改变已开始影响市场行为：部分地区的补贴收 紧催生了浓厚的消费者观望情绪；同时，为规避2026年的 政策变化，虽有部分消费者选择提前购车，但并未形成大 规模的集中释放潮。这进一步印证了市场驱动力正在发生 根本性转换。 因此， ...

酒商对于线上白酒大促"只有更低，没有最低"的担忧正成为现实，"双12"临近，线上名酒价格继续下 行，53度飞天茅台补贴后价格已下探至1499元官方指导价甚至更低。 在业内人士看来，市场供大于求的局面下，改变这一现状难度很大。 电商连续的低价大促也引发了线下传统酒商的不满。多位受访酒商表示，虽然线下价格和线上价格并不 直接等同，但是如今用户习惯在线上比价，这给他们的日常销售带来很多不必要的麻烦。加上近期茅台 等名酒线下批发价仍有回落趋势，终端商也进入"越跌越观望"的状态，生意比之前更淡。 陈华表示："酒企普遍面临渠道库存高企、产品价格倒挂、指标增速放缓等现实问题，行业已经全面进 入'存量竞争'时代。问题和挑战客观存在，包括茅台在内的所有酒企都无法置身事外。" 你常买哪个品牌的白酒？评论区聊聊～ 来源丨中国商报微信综合自第一财经、21世纪经济报道等 封面丨CNSPHOTO 相比之下，酒水电商发展正在加快。2025中国酒类流通协会电商专业委员会工作会议透露，2024年国内 酒类电商GMV规模约为1500亿元，同比增长超20%，线上渗透率不足15%，仍有较大空间。会上， 中 国酒类流通协会电商专业委员会提出《酒类电商 ...

作为一名观察白酒行业多年的投行老民工，我从未像最近这样，频繁地被朋友们问及："现在茅台是不是随便买了？" 确实，走进街边的烟酒店，昔日高不可攀的飞天茅台标价悄然滑向1590元；而刚过去的双十一，在电商平台上守着1499元的抢购键，似乎也不再是一场空 欢喜。 更令人咋舌的是，一些平台的"百亿补贴"后，价格甚至击穿了官方指导价，下探至1399元。与此同时，那个曾经在资本市场一骑绝尘的"股王"，股价也在 1448元附近徘徊，市值从高点回落。 在看股价，已经没有了昔日的风光，近几年是整体下行的震荡走势。 这瓶被称为"液体黄金"的国酒，到底怎么了？ 价格体系的"决堤"与业绩增速的"骤冷" 茅台的价格，从来不只是酒价，更是观察中国高端消费与民间投资情绪的一根水银柱。这轮下跌的幅度与广度，超出了许多人的预期。散瓶飞天茅台的批 发价，已从年初的2200元左右一路跌至1565元附近，半年跌幅接近30%，市场上有声音称，其价格已回归到2016年前后的水平。这意味着，过去几年因看 好其"金融属性"而囤货的经销商与个人投资者，正面临实实在在的亏损压力。 价格"决堤"的背后，是茅台业绩引擎的显著降速。最新财报显示，2025年第三季度， ...

近日，茅台召开了2025年的临时股东大会，透露的信号不乐观。 茅台管理层认为白酒行业已经全面进入 "存量竞争" 时代，初步判断，白酒行业的调整可能还会持续一 段时间，短期内难以迅速好转。 对此，茅台管理层透露了拥抱数字化和电商平台的规划，称会积极推动营销数字化转型，推动 "线上" 和 "线下" 渠道融合发展。 "数字渠道购物是大趋势。"茅台管理层表示，"尽管电商平台给我们的产品价格体系稳定和大家维权工 作带来了一定的挑战，但也不能把电商平台推到对立面，要尽可能地维护好与电商之间的关系，以利于 后续工作的开展。" 迫于生存压力，目前部分茅台经销商已经在电商平台降价出货，有不少用户在社交媒体分享自己在电商 平台上低价购买飞天茅台并安全下车的消息。 而面对"行业罪人"的指责，茅台经销商也站出来言辞激烈地反驳，称自己是在"割肉生存"，而那些投资 者们却高高在上，只会带节奏、编故事、骂平台、骂卖家，只关心股价，却不愿意面对真实世界。 下文是经销商对相关言论的控诉和驳斥： 一个破产茅台经销商的血泪自白：我们不是在卖假酒，我们是在割自己的肉！ 但是，一部分茅台投资者可能出于护盘的心理，他们开始质疑茅台官方，并宣称电商平台上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the price of Moutai, a premium liquor brand, reflects broader issues in high-end consumer demand and investment sentiment in China, with prices dropping significantly and the company's financial performance showing signs of weakness [2][4][6] Price Trends - Moutai's retail price has fallen to around 1,590 yuan, with some platforms offering it as low as 1,399 yuan after discounts, marking a significant drop from previous highs [2][4] - The wholesale price of Moutai has decreased from approximately 2,200 yuan at the beginning of the year to around 1,565 yuan, representing a nearly 30% decline over six months [6] Financial Performance - The latest financial report indicates a slight revenue increase of 0.3% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with net profit growth at only 0.5%, marking the lowest quarterly growth rate in nearly 11 years [6][7] - The company's total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately 1,309.04 million yuan, with a net profit of about 668.99 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.14% [7] Demand and Market Dynamics - The decline in demand is attributed to a decrease in business consumption and high-end gifting, with reports indicating a 30% year-on-year drop in high-end liquor business consumption in Q3 2025 [11] - The average inventory turnover days in the liquor industry have reached 900 days, indicating significant overstock and liquidity issues among distributors [11][12] Strategic Response - Moutai's management is adopting a strategy of "active dormancy" to alleviate pressure on distributors by controlling shipments and reducing inventory burdens [12][13] - The company is also shifting focus from channel-driven sales to direct consumer engagement, including digital initiatives and product diversification aimed at younger consumers [13][14] Long-term Outlook - The current challenges are seen as a transformation of Moutai's value perception from a speculative investment to a recognized consumer brand, requiring time and patience to rebuild a healthier market ecosystem [16][19] - Future strategies include maintaining a focus on brand value, stabilizing market confidence through dividends and share buybacks, and addressing pricing issues across sales channels [18][19]

你发现没？2025 年的飞天茅台彻底 "跌麻了"。 11 月 28 日散瓶批发价跌到 1565 元 / 瓶，刚过两天，12 月 1 日又勉强回升到 1630 元。 虽说守住了 1600 大关，但比起年初 2200 元的价格，年内跌幅已近 30%，直接回到了 2016 年的水平。 这波下跌到底为啥？将来还能涨回去吗？咱们今天掰开揉碎了说。 价格腰斩真相：三大推手 说句实在话，茅台跌成这样绝非偶然。首先是消费场景彻底 "降温" 了。以前茅台是政商宴请、礼品往 来的硬通货，喝的不是酒，是面子。 但现在反腐持续加码，加上宏观经济放缓，大家钱包紧了，消费也理性了，政商、礼品、收藏三大场景 同步萎缩，茅台的社交货币属性直接被削弱。 再看库存压力，整个白酒行业都在 "渡劫"。2025 年 Q3 白酒行业营收同比降 18%，库存高到离谱，部 分地产酒库存达 3-4 个月。 茅台虽说库存只有 0.5-1 个月，算行业最优，但架不住大环境差，经销商为了回款只能压价，形成 "降 价 - 预期弱 - 动销难" 的恶性循环。 最核心的是行业变天了。现在白酒行业进入 "存量竞争"，2025 年上半年规模以上酒企少了 100 多家， 小厂 ...