文/中国社会科学院金融研究所副所长、国家金融与发展实验室副主任 张明 近期 ，美国滥 施关税 政 策 对国 际 金融 市场 造成 直接 冲击 ，美 国股 市 、债 市、汇市出现了三者齐跌的罕见现象。美债信用严重受损，最终动摇的是 美元霸权根基。反过来讲，全球投资者对于其他安全资产的投资意愿将更 加强烈，会越来越多转向其他具有充分流动性、较高收益、规模足够大的 安全资产。 近期，美国滥施关税政策对国际金融市场造成直接冲击，美国股市、债市、汇市出现了三者齐跌的罕见现象。其中，美国10年期国债收益率由4月4日的 4.01%一度升至4月11日的4.49%，创下自2001年"9·11"事件以来的最大单周涨幅。收益率飙升对应的是美债价格的大幅下跌，进而引发全球对美国债市场 系统性风险的普遍担忧。 4月以来，美长期国债收益率快速上升及其导致的市场巨震，主要受四重因素驱动： 一是美国政府滥施关税引发美国经济再通胀预期。 市场预测，仅美国对华关税加征至245%这一举动，就将显著推高其进口商品价格，恶化美国中低收入 群体生活水平，并推高其未来通胀预期。通胀预期升高导致美联储降息空间收窄，进而推高长期国债收益率。 二是外国投资者购 ...

近期，特朗普的"对等关税"政策引发了广泛的关注和讨论。这一政策不仅对美国自身，还对中美关系、全球产业链以及金融市场等诸多方面都产生了深远且 复杂的影响。比如，全球资本市场因之而动荡，美国股债汇一度呈现"三杀"局面，一时间关于金融危机发生的讨论甚嚣尘上。 美国频繁加征关税的真实动机是什么？政策背后全球化逻辑发生了哪些改变？美债抛售潮的根本原因是什么？普通投资者应如何应对关税战？对此，新京报 贝壳财经专访了伦敦政治经济学院经济学教授金刻羽。 伦敦政治经济学院经济学教授金刻羽。受访者供图 "对等关税"政策削弱美国信誉，关税代价将由美国普通民众承担 新京报贝壳财经：近期中美关税博弈升级，怎么理解特朗普打响的这场波及全球的关税战？美国频繁加征关税的真实动机是什么？ 金刻羽：这一政策会大大削弱美国在国际上的名声和信誉，也会打破当前全球化的局势。 从特朗普的目的来看，一方面他想借此重振美国制造业，以减少美国与其他国家的贸易逆差；另一方面他将经贸问题武器化，将关税作为与其他国家在经 济、政治等多方面进行谈判的筹码。 但实际上，美国的经济问题并不能靠关税来解决，甚至会扩大问题，因为美国贸易逆差主要源于国内储蓄率过低、财政赤字高 ...

作为国际指标的纽约黄金期货首次突破了每盎司3400美元的重要关口。进入4月以来，黄金市 场显示出了在亚洲交易活跃的时段创下新高的趋势。随着中美对立局势的愈加明显，中国本 土的黄金买盘不断增强…… 4月21日黄金价格连续三个交易日刷新历史最高纪录。作为国际指标的纽约黄金期货（主力合约）首次 突破了每盎司3400美元的重要关口。进入4月以来，黄金市场显示出了在亚洲交易活跃的时段创下新高 的趋势。随着中美对立局势的愈加明显，中国本土的黄金买盘不断增强。 随着复活节假期结束，出现了基金倾向于重新买入在假期前保持中立的持仓头寸的动向。周末有报道 称，美国总统特朗普正在考虑解除美国联邦储备委员会（FRB，美联储）主席鲍威尔的职务，以寻求尽 快降息。市场对美元的信心发生动摇，相对而言被视为"安全资产"的黄金被投资者大量买入。 在金价接连刷新最高纪录的情况下，当前格外引人注目的是"亚洲交易时段"金价的上涨。4月刷新最高 价的时间大多在亚洲投资者交易活跃的日本时间上午7点~下午4点（北京时间上午6点~下午3点）左 右。21日，金价同样在北京时间下午突破了3400美元。 日本贵金属市场协会代表理事池水雄一介绍称："中国投资者的强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, attributing it to changes in supply and demand dynamics, particularly the declining safety of sovereign debt and increasing global demand for safe-haven assets [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The decline in the safety of sovereign debt, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, has raised concerns about credit risk, leading to a global shortage of safe assets [3]. - The global demand for gold is expected to reach a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, surpassing the previous year's demand of 4,899 tons, driven by increased purchases from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4]. - The geopolitical landscape, including the prolonged Ukraine crisis and tensions in the Middle East, has heightened risk aversion, further boosting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases and Market Dynamics - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with 1,082 tons bought in 2022 and 1,037 tons in 2023, indicating a strong long-term demand support for gold prices [11]. - The restructuring of the global monetary system, driven by factors such as the deterioration of U.S. fiscal and trade deficits, has diminished confidence in the dollar, making gold an attractive alternative [13]. - The article highlights that the relationship between the dollar and gold typically behaves like a seesaw, where a weaker dollar tends to drive gold prices higher [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors can diversify their portfolios by including gold, which serves as an effective hedge against systemic risks [10]. - Various investment methods in gold are available, including physical gold, paper gold, gold stocks, gold futures, and gold funds, with a recommended allocation of 10% to 15% of the investment portfolio in gold for optimal diversification [14]. - Multi-asset allocation strategies, such as those employed by FOF products, can provide a balanced approach to investing in gold while mitigating the volatility associated with single-asset concentration [15].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for gold, particularly through gold ETFs, is increasing significantly, with assets surpassing $300 billion for the first time, driven by rising gold prices and heightened awareness of gold as an asset [1][2]. Group 1: Gold ETF Growth - The assets linked to physical gold ETFs reached $302 billion as of February 7, 2024, and increased to $314.1 billion by February 21, marking a 50% growth in less than a year [1]. - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, saw its holdings exceed 900 tons for the first time in a year and a half [1]. - BlackRock's iShares Gold Trust issued 680 million shares, reflecting an 8% increase since the end of September 2024 [2]. Group 2: Gold Price and Market Dynamics - Gold prices reached a peak of $2,974 per ounce on February 24, 2024, contributing to the increase in gold ETF investment balances [2]. - The overall market size of gold has expanded, with the "above-ground stock" of gold reaching 216,000 tons by the end of 2024, leading to a total market value of $18.1 trillion, nearly doubling in the past five years [2]. - Daily trading volume in the gold market, including ETFs and futures, reached approximately $227.1 billion in 2024, a nearly 40% increase year-on-year, surpassing major financial assets like U.S. Treasuries [2]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Demand - Central banks maintained record-high levels of gold purchases in 2024, with investment demand reaching a four-year high, indicating a strong and entrenched demand for gold [3]. - Market focus has shifted towards U.S. policy risks, particularly under President Trump, with ongoing uncertainty driving continued buying interest in gold [3].