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众所周知，过去房子作为我国经济支柱，带动相关产业快速发展， 如果放在十年前，大家会毫不犹豫买房，毕竟过去20年，全国平均房价涨幅超过540%，四大一线城市"北上广深"的核心区涨幅甚至高达20倍以上。 不过最近几年，随着调控不断深入，楼市逐渐回归理性，越来越多的人抛弃了这种思想：不再坚信房价只涨不跌，不再唯房论，不再盲目跟风买房。 尤其进入2025年，买房人的积极性下降，叠加政策风向彻底变了！以前两会总把楼市挂嘴边，现在张口闭口都是芯片、新能源。 这样的重大转向，已经暗示，"保楼市"还是"保实体经济"，答案越来越明晰，房价的走势已经清晰显现了。 .01 政策转向：从"楼市优先"到"实体突围" 与此同时，在每一次经济会议上，也必然会强调房地产， 然而，最近几年，从政策表述中可以看到，国家对经济发现的重心调整。 比如2024年，中央经济工作会议数据显示，"房地产"一词出现频次较五年前骤降60%，而"科技创新""实体经济"提及率直接翻倍。 显示出，战略层面已经开始主动靠向"实体经济"， 对比当前的房子实体，目前，中国新能源汽车占比全球份额高达73%，光伏专利占比超80%，实体经济已经在新兴领域大放异彩。 然而楼市呢？ ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing significant turmoil, with housing prices remaining stagnant or declining, indicating a prolonged downturn in the industry [1][7]. - There are contrasting views on the future trajectory of housing prices, with some hoping for a rebound similar to the U.S. market, while others fear a prolonged decline akin to Japan's experience [3][4][15]. Market Dynamics - The current decline in housing prices is fundamentally different from previous market fluctuations, suggesting a deeper structural issue rather than a temporary cycle [11]. - Many cities are witnessing a drop in housing prices, marking a potential turning point in the market [7]. - The high debt levels among residents and declining birth rates are internal factors that may further weaken market demand [11][15]. Historical Comparisons - The situation in China is compared to Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s, where many households were trapped by high mortgages after a market crash [13][15]. - Unlike Japan, the U.S. market saw a quicker recovery post-financial crisis, suggesting that China may have a better chance of avoiding a severe downturn due to its centralized government control [16][17]. Government Policies - The Chinese government is implementing a dual-track system of commodity and affordable housing to alleviate market pressure and support living standards [20]. - The gradual approach to property tax reform in China aims to mitigate risks without triggering a systemic collapse, contrasting with Japan's abrupt tax increases during its market peak [22]. Regional Disparities - The real estate market in China is expected to exhibit significant regional differences, with first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities likely to recover faster than weaker regions facing severe downward pressure [29][30]. - The potential for "ghost towns" in less attractive cities is a concern, with some areas already experiencing extremely low housing prices [30]. Future Outlook - The duration of the current market adjustment remains uncertain, with scenarios ranging from a two to three-year decline similar to the U.S. to a prolonged fifteen-year downturn like Japan's [30][32]. - The era of easy profits from real estate investments is over, necessitating a shift in strategies for investors and homebuyers alike [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the regulations and tax policies related to property tax and urban land use tax in China, particularly focusing on the calculation methods, tax rates, and exemptions for small and micro enterprises. Group 1: Property Tax Calculation and Rates - Property tax for rental income is calculated based on the rent excluding value-added tax, with a tax rate of 12% [2] - For small-scale VAT taxpayers and small micro-profit enterprises, property tax can be halved [3] - The property tax rate based on property value is 1.2% after deducting 30% from the original value [3] Group 2: Tax Exemptions and Reductions - From January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2027, small-scale VAT taxpayers, small micro-profit enterprises, and individual businesses can enjoy a 50% reduction in various taxes, including property tax [3] - Organizations renting properties to individuals or specialized housing rental enterprises are taxed at a reduced rate of 4% [2] Group 3: Tax Obligation Timing - Property tax obligations begin from the month following the completion of construction or the month following the transfer of property rights for existing properties [5] - Rental properties are taxed from the month following their delivery for rent [5] Group 4: Tax Source Information and Reporting - Taxpayers must enter property and land ownership information into the electronic tax system for tax source collection and reporting [10][11] - Changes in property use that affect tax calculation methods must be updated in the tax system, with the new information taking effect the following month [12]

从2022年开始，房地产市场就进入到长期调整的趋势之中。先是郑州、石家庄、涿州等二三线城市。在进入到2023年之后，像上海、深圳等一线城市也加入 到调整的趋势中。据最新数据显示：2024年全国商品房销售面积同比下降11.3%，销售额同比下降15.7%。2024年全国300个城市新建商品住宅价格指数同比 下降3.2%，二手住宅价格指数同比下降5.1%。 实际上，现在房地产市场的长期调整，对于那些拥有2套及以上房产的家庭来说，影响还是比较大的。前些年，央行公布数据显示，国内有41.5%的家庭拥 有二套及以上房产，如果再算上近些年新增的家庭，实际占比可能达到45%。而这些家庭将会在未来几年内面临"5大挑战"： 挑战一：房子市值在不断的缩水 之前很多人都认为，一线城市的房价"只涨不跌"，下跌的主要还是那些三四线城市。但结果不仅是像涿州、廊坊、燕郊等环京三四线城市房价跌去50%以 上。就连上海、深圳等一线城市的房价也从最高时的9万多/米，跌至现在的6万多每平米，跌幅也超过了30%。 而现如今，像上海、深圳等一线城市的房价与收入比40，就是当地居民不吃不喝40年才能买得起房子。而二线城市的房价与收入比在20-25，也远高 ...

在进入到2025年之后，房地产市场出现了一个奇怪的现象。一边是各地房地产市场持续低迷，总体呈现"量价齐跌"的趋势。而另一边各种救市政策频繁出 炉，除了绝大多数城市放开限购之外，就是降低房贷利率，减免购房者的契税和增值税等。从目前情况看，各种救市利好政策，只是昙花一现，对于房地产 市场影响并不大。 现象一：中国已经进入到老龄化社会 对此，有90后购房者表示：不知道大家发现没？当前房地产市场有5大现象已经出现，我们可能是最后一代买房的人了，楼市风向已经变了，希望大家要认 清形势。 中国已经进入到中度老龄化社会，一边是60岁以上的老年人数量越来越多。截止到2024年底，我国有60岁以上的老年人口高达2.96亿。预计到2035年60岁以 上的老年人口将达到4亿人。 另一边是年轻人数量越来越少，90后1.7亿，00后1.45亿。这意味着，越来越多的老年人都有了自己的房子，无需买房。而城里多数年轻人可以继承父辈房 产，也没必要再买房。未来刚需购房者数量将会越来越少。届时，房价下行的压力持续增大。 现象二：房价与收入比严重失衡 现象三：房产税试点城市开始扩围 房产税离我们越来越近了。2024年10月，我国高层就宣布将对房产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the tax regulations and incentives for individuals renting out residential properties in China, highlighting various tax types and their applicable rates, as well as temporary reductions in certain taxes from 2022 to 2027 [4][5][12]. Tax Regulations Summary - **Value-Added Tax (VAT)**: Individuals renting out residential properties are subject to a reduced VAT rate of 1.5% instead of the standard 5%. If the monthly rental income does not exceed 100,000 yuan, they can issue a regular invoice to be exempt from VAT [4]. - **Additional Taxes**: The urban maintenance and construction tax, education fee surcharge, and local education surcharge are levied at 7%, 3%, and 2% respectively on the actual VAT paid. From January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2027, these taxes are halved for individuals renting out properties [5]. - **Individual Income Tax**: Since January 1, 2001, the income from renting residential properties at market prices is taxed at a reduced rate of 10%. Deductions allowed before calculating the income tax include taxes paid during the rental process, rent paid to the landlord, repair costs, and other deductible expenses as per tax law [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Stamp Duty**: There is no stamp duty on rental contracts for individuals renting or leasing residential properties [11]. - **Urban Land Use Tax**: Individuals renting out residential properties are exempt from urban land use tax [12]. - **Property Tax**: A property tax of 4% is applied to individuals renting out residential properties, with a temporary reduction of this tax by half from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2027 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has experienced a significant downturn since 2021, with prices in lower-tier cities halving and first-tier cities returning to 2016 levels, despite government efforts to stabilize the market through various policies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The initial surge in housing prices led to a speculative buying frenzy, with many individuals borrowing to purchase properties, resulting in skyrocketing prices even in remote areas [1]. - By 2021, the market began to decline, with second and third-tier cities seeing price drops of around 50%, and first-tier cities reverting to previous price levels [1]. - The government has implemented measures such as lowering down payment ratios, reducing loan interest rates, and offering tax incentives to stimulate market recovery [1]. Group 2: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - Many real estate companies are facing severe financial difficulties and high debt pressures, leading to a growing sense of caution among potential buyers [3]. - The industry is expected to undergo a significant shakeout, with financially strained companies likely to exit the market, while larger firms with stable finances may continue to thrive [5]. Group 3: Taxation and Market Pressure - The introduction of property taxes and landlord taxes in some cities poses a significant burden on homeowners, particularly those with multiple properties, as these taxes can reach up to 20% [6]. - The rental market is under increasing pressure, making it nearly impossible for most homeowners outside major cities to sustain their properties through rental income [6]. Group 4: Wealth Distribution and Policy Implications - The concentration of wealth in real estate has led to high vacancy rates among affluent families, while a significant portion of the population struggles to afford housing [10]. - Government policies aimed at promoting common prosperity and reducing wealth inequality include inheritance taxes on property sales, which could significantly impact high-net-worth families [11]. - These measures are intended to facilitate a more equitable distribution of wealth, although they may cause short-term challenges in the market [11].

2025下半年房价走向-石家庄 26万个房产证是一个大数，其中长安区就有12万个。而且这些还不是全部，有一些小区还没有开始办理，不知道整体下来能够 扩张到多少。但是我很确定，如果新下了26万个房产证，那最直接的影响就是未来市场上二手房又多了不少。毕竟石家庄一共 才有170万个证。这个数据我不是很确定，真的很难查到。 这就等于说，市场上要增加15%到20%的可供出售的二手房。当然也不是每一个人拿到房产证都会出售，但是按照比例考虑， 原来170万个房产证，挂在网上出售的大约有五万多套，现在又增加了15%到20%，也就是说，大概要增加到六万套左右。 今年其实就没有怎么关注房价，因为房价很平稳，平稳的下降。降幅整体来说是比去年看上去要慢，去年一年降了差不多有两 千，石家庄二环内的某一个小区，去年从单价一万降到了单价八千，其实感觉比这个降幅还要大一点点。今年还是在持续的 降，目前的情况看，比去年年底应该降了五百。降的不算快，但是也挺显著的。成交量持续的走低，新房也都还在卖力的宣 传。 本来房价就让它慢慢掉就行，但是这几天出了一个大事，就是石家庄下放了26万个房产证。其实就是以前那些手续不全的，甚 至开发商已经倒闭的，甚 ...

有人说中国的房产不具有保值增值性！理由是:房产的增值其实是地皮的增值，地皮上的水泥钢筋等永 远只会贬值，若干年后(50－120年)房子成为危房，国家把地皮收回(中国房产土地使用权多为70年)，房 子价值彻底归0，这与很多国外房产不同(国外房产地皮大多是永久使用的)，求反驳。 小魔仙女王大人 中国土地使用权70年，到期免费续签。最大问题是房屋到达使用年限后，如何翻盖，这个还没有配套政 策。国外没有使用权，但有1%-3%的房产税，用不了70年，房屋价值就清零了。所以说西方的永久产权 实质是永久纳税义务，并且西方国家还有40%遗产税。就投资而言，中国地产更具投资价值。 sm1314 国外要交房产税，等于年年交地租，别太相信房产保值了，再不降房价，人都没了，你卖谁去。 小镇 地皮看稀缺性，大高层区域将来拆迁重建是恶梦。里面还居住着20%的社会底层人士，还有一堆等着保 值增值的。地皮没多少，拆除价值不够拆迁成本。别说几十年后，现在我市中心快塌的红砖楼已经没有 开发商有兴趣了。 newbison 70年到了也不一定给你拆迁。上海还有很多这样的房子，50年代的工人新村，日据时期修的老房子。这 些房子的地理位置都还不错，但是 ...