最后，有序推动"好房子"建设。"好房子"建设是今年出现的新生事物，它的积极意义在于推动了住房建设的品质提升，可以在一定程度上 起到稳定房地产投资规模的作用。同时，也需注意平衡兼顾推动"好房子"建设与存量房去库存，因此，对于推动"好房子"建设，还需强 调"有序"。 尹中立(国务院参事，中国社会科学院金融所研究员) 其次，房地产去库存的政策方向更加明确。关于房地产去库存，去年中央经济工作会议提出，合理控制新增房地产用地供应，盘活存量用 地和商办用房，推进处置存量商品房工作。对于如何处置存量商品房，今年中央经济工作会议十分明确：鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保 障性住房等。 关于收购存量商品房，央行在2024年5月份出台了"保障性住房再贷款"政策工具，首批额度为3000亿元，利率为1.75%。未来，要进一步发 挥该项货币政策工具的作用，还需妥善解决好两方面的挑战。一是新房收储的定价问题，在土地价格下行背景下，目前已经建成的住房的 成本普遍高于市场价格。二是需要找到符合条件的操作平台。根据政策要求，由城市政府选定地方国有企业作为收购主体。该国有企业及 所属集团不得涉及地方政府隐性债务，不得是地方政府融资平台，同时应具备银 ...

本报记者 张芗逸 对于明年经济工作重点任务，日前在京举行的中央经济工作会议明确提出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进表示，会议提出了着力稳定房地产市场的两种方式，"因城施策控增量、去库存、优 供给"，是从土地端及土地与商品房关系出发；"鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房"则倾向于商品房去库存工作，两者 均聚焦库存去化。 会议要求"深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动'好房子'建设"。近年来，住房公积金政策已成为各地支持房地产发展的重 点政策，中指研究院数据显示，2025年以来全国各地出台的公积金优化政策超260条。 严跃进表示，当前，住房公积金制度改革空间大，资金充裕，应积极用足用好公积金政策。关键在于要探索将其与房地产 市场去库存、惠民生等工作相结合，如让公积金在首付支持上进一步发力，尽量覆盖购房首付成本并做好配套工作。 张波预计，2026年将推进住房公积金贷款额度优化、异地办理流程简化等创新，降低刚需群体的购房资金门槛。另外，住 房公积金可突破仅在买房租房住房层面的使用限制，更好发挥住房公积金作用。 当前，房地产 ...

具体来看，此次中央经济工作会议明确了2026年经济工作的八项重点任务。其中，"坚持内需主导，建 设强大国内市场"居首。中指研究院方面对《华夏时报》记者表示，房地产作为最大的内需之一，在扩 大内需方面依然要发挥重要作用，预计2026年房地产政策将继续落实。 另外，在这一项任务中，中央经济工作会议指出，清理消费领域不合理限制措施。"预计住房领域不合 理限制性措施将得到进一步优化调整，特别是北上深等城市的限购政策，包括商办市场的限购政策均有 优化空间。"中指研究院方面对《华夏时报》记者表示。 中央经济工作会议在"坚持内需"这一部分还指出，要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规 模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效 激发民间投资活力，高质量推进城市更新。 国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年以来，全国房地产开发投资同比持续呈现下降状态，跌幅从年初的 9.8%扩大至前10月的14.7%。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进对《华夏时报》记者表示："当前，全国固定资产投资由正转负。 其中，房地产开发投资疲弱是重要拖累因素。后续，需围绕城中村危旧房改造、优质住房投资建设 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating that the task of "stabilizing the market" is ongoing and requires sustained efforts [2][3]. - Policies aimed at controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply will be further implemented in 2026, potentially supported by interest rate cuts [1][3]. - The report highlights the importance of product strength as a core competitive advantage for real estate companies to navigate through market cycles [1]. Summary by Sections Market Stability - The conference reiterates the importance of addressing issues in the real estate market as a key focus for risk mitigation in critical areas [2]. - The transition period for the real estate market is acknowledged, suggesting that stabilization will take time and require ongoing policy support [2]. Inventory Reduction - The conference introduces measures such as city-specific policies to control new supply and reduce inventory, encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [3]. - The concept of "inventory reduction" is highlighted as a significant focus, marking its first mention since 2016, and aligns with previous discussions on optimizing housing policies [3]. Housing Fund Reform - The report discusses the deepening of housing provident fund reforms, which aim to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and lower housing costs [4]. - Over 260 policies related to housing provident funds have been introduced since 2025, focusing on expanding coverage and easing usage conditions [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends real estate stocks with strong credit, location, and product quality, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [5]. - Companies with robust operational capabilities that manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments are also highlighted, including Longfor Group and New Town Holdings [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, are recommended [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages, like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life, are also suggested [5]. Key Company Recommendations - The report lists specific companies with target prices and investment ratings, including: - Wanwu Cloud (Buy, target price 32.29 HKD) [9] - Longfor Group (Buy, target price 15.21 HKD) [9] - Greentown China (Buy, target price 13.69 HKD) [9] - China Overseas Development (Buy, target price 19.08 HKD) [9] - Greentown Service (Buy, target price 6.56 HKD) [9] - Link REIT (Buy, target price 50.59 HKD) [9] - China Resources Land (Buy, target price 36.45 HKD) [9] - New Town Holdings (Buy, target price 18.90 HKD) [9] - China Jinmao (Increase, target price 1.81 HKD) [9]

【导读】八大知名券商首席解读中央经济工作会议 中国基金报 券商报道组 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济 形势，部署2026年经济工作。会议提出 "五个必须" ，对2026年工作提出八项重点任务。 中央经济工作会议是判断当下经济形势和定调第二年宏观经济政策最权威的风向标。 为 更好 地学习贯彻中央经济工作精神， 中国基金报记者采访了中信证券宏观与政策首席分析师杨 帆、华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘、广发证券首席经济学家郭磊、申万宏源首席经济学家 赵伟、国信证券策略首席分析师王开、中金公司首席宏观经济分析师张文朗、中信建投宏观 首席分析师周君芝，以及粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒。 对于五个新"必须"，受访券商首席表示，本次中央经济工作会议提出五个新"必须"，延续并 深化了经济工作的规律性认识。与2024年会议提出的五个"统筹"相比，2025年会议更突出 经济潜能挖掘与政策、改革的协同发力，同时强化内需稳定性保障，政策导向更贴合当前发 展形势。2026年政策的"跨周期"特征将更明显。 关于2026年经济增长，受访券商首席认为，会议提出"不断巩固拓展经济 ...

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 强于大市 中央经济工作会议解读 稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式 事件： 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。关于房地产的表述有两部分。一 部分在坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚 持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控 增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公 积金制度改革，有序推动'好房子'建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 核心观点 投资建议 风险提示 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《房地产底线逻辑研究系列报告一：银行直供房热 度背后的真相》（2025/12/05） 《10 月楼市成交同比增速由正转负；房地产高质量 发展列入新的五年规划——房地产行业 2025 年 10 月月报》（2025/11/18） 《受高基数以及政策效果减弱影响，单月销售降幅 扩大；今年以来投资降幅持续扩大——房地产行业 2025 年 10 月统计局数据点评》（2025/11/16） 《房地产行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines key tasks and policy arrangements for 2026, emphasizing the need for economic potential exploration, policy support, and reform innovation to achieve quality and reasonable growth in the economy [2][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate expected to be no lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, indicating a strong commitment to using fiscal tools to boost demand [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will adopt a "more proactive" approach, with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to maintain liquidity [6][7]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable financing environment [6][7]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion and technological innovation [7]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies aimed at increasing residents' income and stabilizing investment [8]. - The conference emphasizes the need for a plan to boost urban and rural residents' income, aligning with the broader goal of enhancing consumption capacity [8]. - Investment strategies will focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing project implementation to stabilize investment levels [8]. Real Estate Market - The conference stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" identified as a key strategy for 2026 [10][11]. - Measures will include city-specific policies to control new supply and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [11][12]. Capital Market Reforms - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms, focusing on enhancing the market's ability to support technological innovation and the real economy [13][14]. - Reforms will include improving the adaptability of capital market systems and encouraging long-term investments [13][14]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is emphasized as a core strategy for fostering new economic momentum [15][16]. - These centers will leverage existing research and development resources to enhance China's competitiveness in global technology [15][16][17]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and reduce "involution" competition, aiming to enhance economic vitality and support high-quality development [18][19]. - A nationwide unified market construction regulation is proposed to address existing regulatory gaps and improve market efficiency [18]. International Trade and Investment - The conference calls for promoting more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements, reinforcing China's commitment to multilateral trade systems [20][21]. - The focus will be on expanding high-standard free trade agreements and enhancing trade relations with partners [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to enhance economic potential and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected economic growth target of around 5% for 2026 [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic stability [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [7][8]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of RRR cuts or interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable liquidity environment [8]. - The conference aims to guide financial institutions to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [8]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies to implement a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income and stabilizing investment [10][11]. - The focus on consumer spending and investment as key drivers for domestic demand reflects a shift towards demand-side economic strategies [10]. Real Estate Market - The conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" as a key strategy, particularly in light of high inventory levels in many cities [13][14]. - Measures include encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, which aims to optimize market supply and meet housing needs [14]. Capital Market Reform - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms to enhance support for technological innovation and the real economy [15][17]. - There is a focus on improving the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems, with an emphasis on attracting long-term investment [15][17]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is aimed at fostering innovation and addressing global technological competition [19][20]. - The centers will focus on leveraging existing resources and enhancing collaboration to drive technological advancements and economic transformation [19][20]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and stimulate enterprise vitality through reforms, including the establishment of a unified national market [22][23]. - There is a commitment to addressing "involution" in competition, with targeted policies to mitigate its negative effects on the economy [23]. International Trade and Investment - The conference stresses the importance of signing more regional and bilateral trade agreements to enhance cooperation and maintain a multilateral trade system [25][26]. - The goal is to expand high-standard free trade networks and facilitate trade and investment with partners, particularly in the context of the RCEP and other agreements [25][26].

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。"着力稳定房地产市场"被列入"坚持守牢底线，积极 稳妥化解重点领域风险"这一明年经济工作要抓好的重点任务中。 会议指出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保 障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 "相较于去年9月份中央政治局会议中'严控增量、优化存量、提高质量'的提法，今年中央经济工作会议 在展望明年房地产工作中提出'控增量、去库存、优供给'。从'优化存量'到'去库存'，意味着在当地楼市 总体需求偏弱的背景下，去化压力仍然较大。明年需要以更大力度推动楼市去化，以实现房地产供求关 系形成新的平衡。"成都市城市建设发展研究院副院长冯波对第一财经表示。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进也认为，明年楼市政策的关键词是"去库存"。"从库存指标来看， 当前全国百城去库存周期处于历史新高，去库存压力非常大。易居研究院全国百城库存报告显示，11月 全国百城去库存周期已为27.4个月，为历史新高，且超过了去年高点。" 近一年来，多地在楼市去化过程中，将存量商品房收购与保障房建设相结合， ...

会议提出"深化住房公积金制度改革"，严跃进认为，在深化住房公积金制度改革方面，2025年各地开展了 一系列工作，包括近期深圳允许公积金提取用于支付契税，这充分发挥了公积金的导向作用。下一步要探 索如何将公积金政策与房地产市场去库存工作相结合，比如公积金在首付支持方面要进一步发力，尽量覆 盖购房首付成本，这将是推动住房公积金制度更好发挥作用、助力房地产市场稳定发展的重要着力点。 严跃进认为，需要厘清的是，今年未再重点提及城中村与危旧房改造、刚性及改善型住房需求等内容，并 不代表这些工作被弱化或搁置。相反，它们仍是房地产领域的重要任务，只是被明确为服务于去库存的手 段与路径，所有工作最终都要围绕去库存这一核心导向展开。 （大众新闻·风口财经记者 刘晓） 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进在接受风口财经记者采访时表示，着力稳定房地产市场，主要涉及两 项工作：一是因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给；二是鼓励收购存量商品房，重点用于保障性住房等。在 他看来，稳楼市的关键在于去库存，唯有切实提升去库存的行动力与驱动力，精准挖掘新的需求增长点， 才能筑牢市场平稳运行的根基。 严跃进表示，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，其逻辑起点 ...