证 券 研 究 报 告 泡泡玛特"星星人"新款热销，关注潮 玩消费与 AI+消费 ——新消费行业周报（20260126-0201） 行业数据： 社会消费品零售总额首破 50 万亿元，规模居全球零售市场前列。结 构持续优化，新的消费热点不断涌现，26 年服务消费与乡村市场有望 是核心引擎。国家统计局公布数据，2025 年社会消费品零售总额 50.12 万亿元，比上年增长 3.7%（比 2024 年加快 0.2 个百分点）。其 中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 45.14 万亿元，增长 4.4%。全国网上 零售额 15.97 万亿元，比上年增长 8.6%；服务零售额比上年增长 5.5%；最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率为 52.0%（比上年的贡献率 提高了 5 个百分点）。12 月份，社会消费品零售总额 4.51 万亿元，同 比增长 0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 3.97 万亿元，增长 1.7%。 ——2026 年 01 月 08 日 服务消费活力释放。从居民消费看，2025 年服务性消费支出占居民人 均消费支出的比重是 46.1%。各地也在持续创新消费场景，优化消费 环境，文化、旅游、娱乐、赛事等细分领域 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [9] Core Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 surpassed 50 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7% compared to the previous year. Online retail sales reached 15.97 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, while service retail sales increased by 5.5%. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 52.0%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year [3][9] - The 2026 CES showcased a strong embrace of AI technology, focusing on practical applications. Major chip companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel are shifting their attention to physical AI and edge AI, indicating a significant trend in AI hardware development [12][9] - The popularity of collectible toys is rising, with products from Pop Mart, such as the PUCKY series, gaining significant attention and selling out quickly. This trend suggests a potential new focus in the collectible toy market [14][15] Summary by Sections Macro Consumption - In 2025, the retail sales of social consumer goods reached 50.12 trillion yuan, with online retail and service retail sales growing by 8.6% and 5.5%, respectively. The contribution of final consumption to economic growth was 52.0% [3][9] - Service consumption is becoming more vibrant, with a projected 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure dedicated to service-related spending in 2025. Various sectors like tourism, entertainment, and sports are expected to see double-digit growth [3][11] AI + Consumption - The CES 2026 highlighted the integration of AI in consumer products, with a focus on AI hardware that is becoming more mature and applicable. The emergence of AI glasses and other smart devices indicates a shift towards consumer-grade AI products [12][9] - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, GoerTek, and KANAT Optical are recommended for investment in the AI hardware sector [16] Collectible Toys - Pop Mart's new product lines, including the "Starry Person" series, have quickly sold out, indicating a strong market interest. The resale prices of these products have seen significant increases, suggesting a robust demand in the collectible toy market [15][16]

2025年，我国消费市场向新而行，保持稳健增长。2025年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，同比 增长3.7%，比2024年加快0.2个百分点，规模居全球零售市场前列。2025年服务零售额同比增长5.5%， 快于商品零售额1.7个百分点，体现了较强的活力和潜力。 这些成绩不仅彰显了我国消费市场的强大韧性，也为2026年我国消费市场持续向好奠定了坚实基 础。对于今年的扩内需工作，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为今年经济工 作重点任务首位。商务部等部门发布文件，指导地方相关部门和金融机构加强协同，精准施策，推动惠 民生和促消费紧密结合；多部门明确继续实施消费品以旧换新政策；国家发展改革委宣布，研究制定出 台2026年至2030年扩大内需战略实施方案；有关方面正在研究制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计 划……近期，一揽子提振和扩大消费的政策陆续发布，为今年扩大内需工作锚定了方向。 提升以旧换新政策效能 2025年12月底，国家发展改革委、财政部联合发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新政策的通知》，对2026年"两新"工作作出系统部署。其中，2026年消费品以旧换新政策重 ...

Core Viewpoint - Various provinces in China have set economic growth targets for 2026, reflecting a commitment to stabilize and enhance economic performance in the wake of uncertainties. The targets generally hover around 5%, with specific strategies outlined to achieve these goals [3][8]. Economic Growth Targets - Beijing aims for a GDP growth of approximately 5% for 2026, with a 2025 growth rate of 5.4%, surpassing the national average of 5% [3]. - Guangdong has set a target of 4.5% to 5% for GDP growth in 2026, following a 2025 growth of 3.9% [3]. - Zhejiang's target is the highest among provinces at 5% to 5.5%, with a 2025 GDP of 94,545 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.5% [5][6]. - Henan has also set a target of around 5% for 2026, with a 2025 growth rate of 5.6% [8]. Economic Development Strategies - Guangdong plans to accelerate the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, develop emerging industries, and enhance service sector quality [8][11]. - Zhejiang emphasizes creating a modern industrial system, focusing on advanced manufacturing and nurturing new industries, including artificial intelligence and new materials [14][16]. - Henan aims to upgrade ten traditional industries, including steel and coal, to enhance efficiency and sustainability [12]. Innovation and New Industries - Beijing is focusing on high-tech industries, including artificial intelligence, with a projected core industry scale of 4,500 billion yuan by 2025 [13]. - Guangdong is set to strengthen its industrial base by promoting smart, green, and integrated development across all sectors [11]. - Zhejiang's initiatives include supporting the growth of artificial intelligence and digital economy sectors, with a target of 20% growth in AI core industry revenue [16]. Consumer Market Development - The consumer market is a focal point, with provinces like Henan and Zhejiang aiming to enhance consumption through innovative policies and new consumption models [20][22]. - Beijing plans to support service consumption in education, healthcare, and elderly care, aiming to create new growth points in these sectors [24]. Social Welfare and Employment - Provinces are prioritizing social welfare, with Guangdong focusing on enhancing basic living standards and employment services [26]. - Henan plans to improve job services for college graduates and enhance elderly care facilities [28]. - Beijing aims to create over 100,000 job opportunities for graduates and increase investment in public services [30].

■朱宝琛 消费是经济增长的"主引擎"，也是民生幸福的"晴雨表"。消费品质的迭代，关乎高质量发展的成色与后劲。 1月27日，中国消费者协会公布2026年全国消协组织消费维权年主题为"提升消费品质"。笔者认为，在提振消费各项政策 发力显效、促进消费潜力不断释放的当下，提升消费品质非常必要。这将为经济高质量发展注入持久动力，同时激活消费市场 的"一池春水"。 其一，政策赋能是提升消费品质的重要支撑。 近年来，在科技赋能和消费升级驱动下，我国消费市场逐步向精细化、个性化发展，新消费应运而生。与此同时，居民消 费需求也从"有没有"转向"好不好""优不优"。 这就需要坚持问题导向与系统思维，多方合力，在推动供给提质上下功夫，奏响提质增效的协同乐章。比如，政府部门要 持续推动提升文化娱乐、旅游休闲、餐饮住宿、体育赛事、医疗健康等领域的供给水平，丰富高质量、多元化的服务供给，满 足居民多样化需求，构建起"需求牵引供给、供给创造需求"的良性循环。 企业则要以降本增效推动供给提质降价，让消费者得实惠、愿消费；优化流程、减少中间环节、降低成本，真正让利于 民；同时，强化创新驱动，支持企业加大研发投入，提升供给适配性。 其三，需要持 ...

1月28日，武汉市统计局、国家统计局武汉调查队发布2025年武汉市经济运行情况。 根据湖北省市州生产总值统一核算结果，初步核算，2025年，全市地区生产总值（GDP） 22147.35亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.6%。分产业看，第一产业增加值481.21亿元，增 长3.8%；第二产业增加值6589.72亿元，增长5.0%；第三产业增加值15076.42亿元，增长 5.9%。 消费市场规模稳步扩大，新型消费发展较快 2025年，全市大力推动消费提质升级，全年实现社会消费品零售总额9013.96亿元，比上 年增长4.5%。按消费类型分，商品零售额8464.60亿元，增长4.7%；餐饮收入549.36亿元，增长 1.3%。促消费类商品销售增势较好，全市限额以上单位家具类、通讯器材类商品零售额分别比 上年增长155.7%和15.3%。基本生活类、升级类商品销售稳定增长，金银珠宝类、烟酒类、日 用品类、化妆品类商品零售额分别增长25.2%、16.9%、14.4%和11.4%。新型消费快速发展， 全市限额以上单位实物商品网上零售额比上年增长12.2%，占限额以上社会消费品零售总额的 比重为36.1%。 农业生产形势 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant growth in various sectors of cultural and tourism consumption, indicating a revitalization of consumer activity [2][3][4][5][9] - Revenue from artistic creation and performance sales increased by 17.3% year-on-year [2] - Sales revenue from travel agencies and related services, scenic spots, and leisure sightseeing activities grew by 11.2%, 26.1%, and 14.69% respectively [3] Group 2 - New consumption patterns are emerging, with internet life service platforms and food delivery sales increasing by 9.4% and 13.3% year-on-year [4] - Digital cultural consumption, represented by gaming and animation, shows significant potential with a 16.69% increase in sales revenue [4] - Health-related consumption is becoming a new hotspot, with sales revenue from health management, wellness services, and sports health services growing by 11.7%, 12%, and 16.5% respectively [5] Group 3 - The demand for elderly care, social assistance, and nursing home services is on the rise, indicating a sustained release of consumption potential [6] - The revenue from nursery services increased by 5.4% year-on-year, reflecting the ongoing development of childcare service systems [7] Group 4 - There is a continuous expansion of inbound consumption, with the number of outbound travelers eligible for tax refunds increasing by 305% year-on-year [9] - The sales volume of tax refund goods rose by 95.9%, and the total tax refund amount increased by 95.8% [9] - The number of regions implementing new tax refund policies has increased, with 12,930 stores offering tax refund services, including over 7,000 providing "buy and refund immediately" services [9]

国务院新闻办公室近日举行新闻发布会，商务部相关负责人表示，2025年提振消费加力显效，全年社会 消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，达到50.1万亿元，增长3.7%，消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%， 提高了5个百分点。下一步，商务部将围绕"出政策、办活动、优场景"三大方向深化促消费工作。 本报记者 蒋永霞 1月26日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍了2025年商务工作及运行情况。数据显示，2025年 社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元大关，达50.1万亿元，同比增长3.7%；尤为引人注目的是，消费 对经济增长的贡献率达到52%，较上年提升5个百分点，再次印证了消费作为我国经济"主引擎"的核心 地位。在政策加力、场景创新与结构优化的多重推动下，我国消费市场呈现出稳中有进、质效双升的新 格局。 政策与活动双轮驱动 2025年，以"政策+活动"双轮驱动的促消费策略成效显著，尤其在大宗耐用商品和县域乡村市场释放出 强劲动能。 大宗耐用商品消费较快增长。2025年，受消费品以旧换新政策带动，相关商品，比如限额以上单位家 电、通讯器材、家具零售额分别增长了11%、20.9%和14.6%，乘用车零售量增加了3.8% ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, advocating for a significant boost in consumption and the interaction between new supply and new demand, with new consumption being a key driver of this growth [1] Summary by Sections New Consumption Characteristics - New consumption is supported by innovations in internet, digital technology, and artificial intelligence, representing a fusion of digital economy and consumer demand upgrades, breaking traditional consumption limitations [1] - It relies on e-commerce platforms and mobile applications, allowing consumers to shop, entertain, and learn anytime and anywhere [1] - New consumption includes digital products, smart products, and green services, showcasing diverse new business models and consumer experiences [1] Five Core Features of New Consumption - **High Integration**: New consumption promotes the integration of online and offline channels, enhancing personalized and flexible production through digital transformation [2] - **Technology Empowerment**: Utilizes big data and AI to optimize consumption processes, with technologies like VR and AR enhancing digital transformation in consumption [3] - **Rich Scenarios**: Innovation in diverse consumption scenarios has emerged, integrating various sectors such as culture, tourism, and health, creating immersive and interactive experiences [4] - **Consumer Experience**: Consumers increasingly value personalized and intelligent experiences, with a focus on emotional resonance and community building [4] - **Ecological Sustainability**: New consumption aligns with green and low-carbon principles, promoting sustainable consumption practices [5] Pathways to Accelerate New Consumption Development - **Supply-Side Structural Reform**: Focus on green, digital, and smart consumption to enhance the supply of high-quality consumer goods [6] - **Multi-Channel Income Growth**: Promote stable wage growth and diversify income sources to boost consumer spending [7] - **Infrastructure Improvement**: Enhance digital infrastructure and logistics to support new consumption fields [8] - **Digital Transformation**: Accelerate the integration of new technologies in consumer services, fostering new business models [9] - **Urban-Rural Integration**: Strengthen rural infrastructure and promote e-commerce to unlock rural consumption potential [10] - **Policy Coordination**: Streamline regulations and enhance consumer protection to support the growth of new consumption ecosystems [11]

Group 1 - The core concept of "emotional economy" is highlighted in Jiangxi Province's government work report, emphasizing the development of new consumption models driven by emotional spending [1] - Jiangxi plans to organize over 4,000 seasonal promotional activities and distribute nearly 200 million RMB in various consumption vouchers by 2025, aiming to enhance consumer engagement [1] - The report indicates a projected increase in domestic tourism, with visitor numbers and total spending expected to grow by 4.8% and 13.8% respectively [1] Group 2 - In 2026, Jiangxi aims to expand new consumption types, including cultivating "emotional consumption" scenarios and developing trendy retail spaces [2] - The government intends to create new growth points in the "Guochao" economy, focusing on enhancing the consumption of historical classic products such as ceramics, traditional Chinese medicine, and tea [2]