Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The overall container shipping rates have decreased, with the SCFI composite index dropping by 9.7% to 1317 points, and specific routes such as Shanghai-Europe and Shanghai-Mediterranean seeing declines of 11.1% and 12.0% respectively [1][8] - The refined oil tanker rates have increased, with the BCTI index rising by 4.6% to 890 points, while the MR rates for the Pacific and Atlantic regions showed mixed results [1][9] - The dry bulk market has shown strength during the traditional off-season, with the BDI index increasing by 12.0% to 1949 points, driven by a mismatch in supply and demand [1][8] Group 2: Express Logistics - YTO Express held a conference emphasizing the importance of building a resilient supply chain and adhering to national postal policies [2] - The State Post Bureau has prioritized the governance of illegal charges in rural express delivery as part of its 2026 initiatives [3] - Macro trends indicate a resilient demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Group 3: Aviation Sector - The civil aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with major airlines like China Southern and Hainan Airlines expected to turn profitable in 2025, while others like China Eastern and Air China are projected to reduce losses significantly [4] - The State Council has issued a plan to enhance service consumption, which includes transportation services, aiming to stimulate economic growth [4] - Spring Festival travel demand is strong, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year [5][6] Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with the U.S. increasing military presence, which could impact oil shipping routes [7] - The Atlantic freight market is experiencing a surge, with dry bulk rates showing unexpected strength due to concentrated cargo volumes and tight capacity [8] - China's port cargo throughput has decreased, with a reported decline of 1.70% in total cargo and a 4.35% drop in container throughput [10] Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volumes showing a slight decline of 3.35% [11] - Shenzhen International reported a 3.3% increase in toll revenue for December 2025, indicating stable growth in road transport [12] - Zhongyuan Express plans to recognize credit impairment and asset impairment provisions totaling 950 million, forecasting a 30% decline in annual net profit [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The "Work Plan" issued by the State Council aims to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas and three potential areas, which is expected to open up incremental space for service consumption [3][6] - By 2025, the per capita service consumption expenditure in China is projected to reach 13,602 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure [3][11] - The domestic tourism market is expected to see 6.522 billion trips in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [3][14] - The ice and snow industry is projected to generate over 187.5 billion yuan in consumption during the 2024-2025 season, with a growth rate exceeding 25% [3][30] - The emotional economy market in China is expected to reach 23,077.67 billion yuan in 2024 and surpass 45,000 billion yuan by 2029 [3][36] Summary by Relevant Sections Service Consumption Growth - The "Work Plan" focuses on optimizing service supply and fostering new service consumption models, particularly in transportation, housekeeping, automotive aftermarket, online audio-visual services, travel services, and inbound consumption [3][6] - The report highlights the increasing contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth, projected to be 52% in 2025, up by 5 percentage points from 2024 [9] Market Performance - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange service consumption sector decreased from 48.2X to 47.7X, with a total market capitalization dropping from 114.684 billion yuan to 112.981 billion yuan [46][51] - The median market cap for companies in this sector fell from 2.038 billion yuan to 1.978 billion yuan [51] Company Insights - Notable companies in the service consumption sector include: - Elderly care: Zhisheng Information, Beiyikang - Sports: Huayang Racing, Kangbiter - Tourism: Meiya Technology - Emotional/experiential consumption: Taihu Snow, Lusi Co., Baixinglong - Education: Digital Human, Tonghui Information - Online audio-visual: Xiange International, Haifiman - Apparel: Zhongfangbiao, Tianfangbiao [3][40] Performance Highlights - The report indicates that 29% of companies in the North Exchange service consumption sector saw stock price increases, with the median stock price change being -2.41% [46] - Top performers included Qiule Seed Industry (+22.55%), Kangnong Seed Industry (+13.50%), and Oufu Egg Industry (+7.05%) [46][56]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 1）圆通速递举行 2025 年工作总结暨 2026 年工作部署大会，强调"守底线、强基 石、开新路"。1 月 26 日，圆通速递 2025 年工作总结暨 2026 年工作部署大会召开， 圆通速递董事局主席喻渭蛟表示：要打造安全畅通、便捷高效、自主可控、可持续、 有韧性的供应链；要贯彻执行国家邮政局局长赵冲久关于深入推进交通强国邮政篇 建设等 9 个方面的工作，要以"守底线、强基石、开新路"为管理理念和工作指南， 做好各项重点工作。圆通速递总裁潘水苗围绕"守底线、强基石、开新路"对 2026 年重点工作作了具 ...

日前，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》（简称《方案》），围绕激发重点领域发展活力、培育潜力领域发展动能、加强支持保障 3个方向出台12条举措，聚焦文旅消费领域作出具体部署，为文旅消费提质升级划定清晰路径，为文旅产业高质量发展注入强劲动力。 政策精准发力 锚定文旅消费新方向 作为扩大内需的重要抓手，服务消费正成为拉动内需的新引擎。 过去一年来，随着一系列大力提振消费政策举措的落地见效，国内消费市场活力不断提升，服务消费潜能进一步激发，消费市场持续扩容提质升级。在这一 背景下，《方案》的出台恰逢其时。 在业界看来，《方案》明确聚焦文旅消费领域提出具体举措要求，不仅呼应了当前消费升级的整体趋势，也为文旅产业跨界融合、提质增效指明了方向。 南开大学旅游与服务学院副教授于海波表示，文旅消费具有频次高、乘数效应强、绿色低碳等特点，是推动经济高质量发展的关键抓手。"《方案》的出 台，通过顶层设计引导资源有效配置，旨在形成'政府引导、市场主导'的健康发展格局。"于海波说，《方案》对"情绪式、体验式服务"提出包容审慎监管， 这也向市场释放了鼓励新业态、拥抱新趋势的明确信号。 "交通服务、旅居服务、体育赛事、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, emphasizing the importance of service consumption as a key driver for high-quality economic development in China [1][2]. Group 1: Support Policies - The work plan outlines three main areas of support: focusing on key sectors such as transportation, housekeeping, online audio-visual services, and inbound consumption; enhancing potential sectors like performance services and experiential services; and strengthening support through standard systems and financial backing [2][3]. - Specific measures include optimizing service supply, promoting pilot programs, innovating consumption scenarios, and enhancing talent training to stimulate development vitality [2]. Group 2: Network Audio-Visual Services - The plan aims to support private capital in legally conducting online audio-visual services, enhancing the policy framework to promote orderly competition and innovation in the market for ultra-high-definition and micro-short video services [3]. - It emphasizes the need for technological advancements and improvements in production and broadcasting capabilities, as well as network upgrades [3]. Group 3: Inbound Consumption - The work plan proposes extending the trial period for unilateral visa-free countries and expanding the applicability of visa-free policies to enhance inbound tourism [3]. - It aims to improve the convenience of entry and residence for foreign visitors, promote high-quality international events, and enhance the international consumption environment [3]. Group 4: Financial Support - The plan highlights the need for strengthened financial support, including optimizing loan interest subsidy policies for service industry operators and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit investment in new growth areas [4]. - It also supports qualified enterprises in cultural, tourism, education, and other service sectors to issue bonds and encourages the development of financial products tailored to service consumption characteristics [4].

Group 1 - The State Council's plan aims to optimize service supply and cultivate new growth points in service consumption to enhance quality of life and support high-quality economic development [1] - Key areas of focus include promoting the integration of transportation services and tourism, expanding inbound consumption, and optimizing performance management in the entertainment sector [1][2] - The plan emphasizes the importance of financial and fiscal support, establishing credit systems in sectors like elderly care and tourism, and developing relevant standards for service consumption [1] Group 2 - The National Science and Technology Work Conference highlighted the need to strengthen basic research and enhance the capacity for independent research and development [3][4] - The conference emphasized the integration of technological innovation with industrial innovation and the importance of international cooperation to improve the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system [3] Group 3 - The National Taxation Work Conference outlined a focus on high-quality tax practices, emphasizing the need for legal compliance, digital transformation, and strict tax management [5][6] - Key goals include creating a comprehensive tax revenue governance system and addressing issues related to tax compliance and management in key sectors [5] Group 4 - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance released guidelines to improve the temporary assistance system, focusing on providing quick aid for urgent needs and supporting vulnerable families [7][8] - The guidelines aim to enhance the efficiency and accessibility of temporary assistance, particularly for families facing sudden financial burdens [7] Group 5 - The Ministry of Natural Resources and other departments introduced measures to lower costs and optimize resource use to support the reform and development of elderly care services [9][10] - Key initiatives include allowing flexible land use for elderly care facilities and promoting innovative resource combinations to enhance service delivery [9] Group 6 - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to deepen "Belt and Road" cooperation and optimize foreign investment policies to enhance market access and support foreign enterprises [11][12] - The focus is on expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as green minerals, clean energy, and digital economy [11][12] Group 7 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission outlined the direction for the next round of state-owned enterprise reforms, focusing on optimizing the layout and structure of state-owned economies [14][15] - Emphasis is placed on promoting technological innovation and enhancing the management and supervision of state-owned assets [14] Group 8 - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security outlined key tasks in employment, social security, talent development, and labor relations to enhance social welfare [17] - Initiatives include expanding employment opportunities, reforming social security systems, and protecting the rights of new employment forms [17]

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's social retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2025, reaching 50.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2][10][19] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is projected to be 52%, continuing to act as a main engine for economic development [2][19] - The service consumption sector is becoming the core of growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% in service retail sales and a 4.5% rise in per capita service consumption expenditure, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure [2][19] Group 2 - The report indicates that the consumption service sector saw a decline of 2.02% this week, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a growth of 6.49% [3][31] - Among the listed companies in the consumption service sector, 26% saw an increase in market value, while 74% experienced a decline [3][35] - Notable individual stock performances included Qiu Le Seed Industry (+22.55%), Kang Nong Seed Industry (+13.50%), and Tong Guan Mining Construction (+11.98%) [3][43] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, there are 177 companies queued for listing on the North Exchange, with 28 related to the consumption service sector, averaging 1.116 billion yuan in revenue and 129 million yuan in net profit for 2024 [3][45] - Companies such as Shiyang Agricultural Science, Baili Food, and Jule Co. are projected to exceed 200 million yuan in net profit for 2024 [3][45][46] - Sixteen companies in the consumption service sector have announced performance forecasts for 2025, with notable growth expected from Hongyu Packaging, Oufu Egg Industry, Longzhu Technology, and Taihu Snow [3][46][48] Group 4 - The report outlines twelve measures to stimulate service consumption, focusing on six key areas including transportation services, domestic services, online audio-visual services, travel services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption [10][11] - The report identifies potential growth areas in performance services, sports event services, and emotional/experiential services, with specific companies like Kangbiter, Huayang Racing, and Bixinglong positioned in these sectors [14][15]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In 2025, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 73,982 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year [1] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors were the main contributors to profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits rising by 7.7% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 13.3% [1] - The smart electronic products sector saw a significant profit increase of 48.0%, indicating a shift towards intelligent consumer devices [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In 2025, national public budget revenue was 216,045 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while public budget expenditure rose by 1% to 287,395 billion yuan [3] - Tax revenue reached 176,363 billion yuan, up 0.8%, with significant growth in personal income tax (11.5%) and securities transaction stamp tax (57.8%) [4] - Land use rights revenue fell by 14.7% to 41,518 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline [5] Group 3: Service Consumption Growth - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on sectors like transportation, housekeeping, and tourism [6] - The plan includes 12 policy measures aimed at enhancing service consumption, which is expected to drive investment and innovation in these sectors [7] Group 4: Intercity Railway Development - The National Development and Reform Commission released guidelines for the sustainable development of intercity railways, emphasizing connections between major urban centers [8] - The guidelines set a target for new intercity railways to achieve a minimum of 15 million passengers per year, with design speeds between 120 to 200 km/h [8] Group 5: UK-China Economic Relations - During UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China, multiple economic cooperation agreements were signed, including a reduction in whisky import tariffs from 10% to 5% [10] - The visit marked a significant step in improving UK-China relations, with a focus on enhancing bilateral trade and investment [11] Group 6: Gold Market Volatility - International gold prices reached a historic high of nearly 5,600 USD per ounce before experiencing significant volatility, with a drop of over 9% shortly after [14] - The rapid increase in gold prices from 4,000 to 5,500 USD within three months indicates a sensitive market environment influenced by various economic factors [15] Group 7: Housing Policy Innovations - Nanjing introduced an "electronic housing ticket" system to facilitate the purchase of existing inventory homes, aiming to meet the diverse housing needs of residents [16] - The initiative has led to the issuance of approximately 11,000 housing tickets, helping to reduce inventory by over 6,200 units [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent issuance of the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" aims to optimize and expand service supply, enhance service consumption quality, and stimulate domestic demand through 12 targeted policy measures [1][5]. Group 1: Key Policy Measures - The 12 policy measures focus on invigorating key sectors, nurturing potential areas, and strengthening support systems to activate domestic demand and inject strong momentum into high-quality development [1][5]. - Policies include transforming transportation lines into cultural and industrial corridors, enhancing tourism through railway integration, and facilitating visa processes to convert inbound traffic into consumption growth [3][4]. Group 2: Service Consumption Trends - The vibrant consumption landscape during the Spring Festival reflects China's consumption structure transformation, with service retail sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year in 2025, and per capita service consumption expenditure reaching 46.1% [3]. - Emerging trends in service consumption include significant growth in cultural, recreational, and travel sectors, driven by new business models and local IP popularity [3][4]. Group 3: Forward-looking and Inclusive Policies - The policies demonstrate foresight and inclusivity by addressing new consumer demands in performances, sports events, and experiential services, allowing for regulatory flexibility and support for new business models [4]. - Measures include enabling eligible performance groups to transition to public welfare units and incorporating experiential service professions into national classifications, fostering a conducive environment for new consumption demands [4]. Group 4: Comprehensive Support Framework - The policies aim to establish a comprehensive support network through improved standards, credit systems, and financial backing, addressing industry challenges related to service quality and consumer rights [4][5]. - This dual approach of optimizing supply and providing institutional support is designed to encourage consumer confidence and stimulate market activity, aligning consumer needs with industrial upgrades [4][5].

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 宏观市场周报 业务咨询 目录 添加客服 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +0.08% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.07%/本周变动-0.14BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.07% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.10% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，上证指数、创 | 本周点评：本周国债期货涨跌不一，TS、TL主力合约分 | | | 业板指跌幅较小不足1%。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝筹 | 别下跌 0.02% 、0.34% ， TF 、 T 主 力 合 约分 别 上 涨 | | | 股强于中小盘股。本周，国内经济数据较少，仅周二公 | 0.01%、0.11%。近期地方债发行计划或显示2月供给 | | | 布规上工业企业利润，在缺乏数据指引背景下，市场对 | 压力有所前置，市场对供需失衡担忧尚未完全缓解。本 | | | 成长板块 ...