Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. However, the US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Meanwhile, Canadian canola has been relatively strong in April due to good crushing demand and low inventory. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [3][44][45]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [3][44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK-US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [3][45]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Since April, the overall oil and fat sector has been fluctuating weakly. Palm oil has been the weakest due to the arrival of the production increase season and poor export demand. In the domestic market, at the end of April, the palm oil 09 contract fell 522 to 8,148 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.14%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 122 to 7,832 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 142 to 9,297 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.5%. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 401 to 3,910 ringgit/ton, a decline of 9.3%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 3.59 to 48.97 cents/pound, an increase of 7.91%; the ICE canola active contract rose 82.5 to 693.6 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 13.5%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 910 to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.42%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong fell 190 to 8,070 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 40 to 9,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% [8]. - In early April, palm oil first soared and then fell sharply. The soaring was mainly due to the US biodiesel policy boosting the demand for US soybean oil, which drove the overall oil and fat market up. However, as the palm oil producing regions entered the production increase season, supply gradually increased, and the US tariff policy raised concerns about the global economic outlook. The sharp decline in crude oil prices drove the oil and fat market down, causing palm oil to fall rapidly. From mid - to late April, palm oil entered a wide - range oscillation. After the sharp price decline, the buying interest of demand countries like India and China increased, and the increased bargain - hunting purchases supported the market, while the production increase cycle suppressed it. After the May Day holiday, the domestic market made significant adjustments. With production increasing more than expected and export demand not as optimistic as expected, coupled with the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy, palm oil oscillated weakly [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - The monthly data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.0055 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; imports were 121,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; and the ending inventory was 1.5626 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, in line with expectations, and the overall report was neutral [19]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - According to the data of the Malaysian Palm Oil Processors Association (SPPOMA), from April 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 14.50%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.48%, and palm oil production increased by 17.03%. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from April 1 - 30, 2025, increased by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons compared with the same period last month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 28.06%, the production in East Malaysia increased by 20.76%, the production in Sabah increased by 24.07%, and the production in Sarawak increased by 11.37%. According to the latest data of SPPOMA, from May 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and palm oil production increased by 60.17% [27]. - According to the data of shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 825,309 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,874 tons, a decrease of 0.23%. According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 1,120,747 tons, an increase of 54,270 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 5.09%. According to the data released by independent inspection company AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil exports in April were 1,087,133 tons, an increase of 37,879 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 3.61% [28]. 2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Indonesia's palm oil production in February 2025 was 3.79 million tons, 3.828 million tons in January, 4.25 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 3.87 million tons. The total production from January - February 2025 was 7.62 million tons, compared with 8.89 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of exports, Indonesia's palm oil exports in February 2025 were 2.8 million tons, 1.96 million tons in January, 2.17 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 2.34 million tons. The total exports from January - February 2025 were 4.76 million tons, compared with 4.98 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in February 2025 was 2.25 million tons, 2.94 million tons in January, and 3.26 million tons in February 2024 [31]. 2.4 Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's vegetable oil imports in March 2025 were 970,000 tons, an increase of 9.48% compared with 886,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 1.15 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.05 million tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, the total vegetable oil imports were 5.64 million tons, compared with 5.77 million tons in the same period last year [33]. - For different oils, India's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 425,000 tons, an increase of 13.64% compared with 374,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 485,000 tons, and the five - year average was 520,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's palm oil imports were 2.42 million tons, compared with 3.53 million tons in the same period last year. India's soybean oil imports in March 2025 were 355,000 tons, an increase of 25% compared with 284,000 tons in February. In March 2024, soybean oil imports were 219,000 tons, and the five - year average was 270,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 1.91 million tons, compared with 880,000 tons in the same period last year, showing a significant increase. India's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 191,000 tons, a decrease of 16.23% compared with 228,000 tons in February. In March 2024, sunflower oil imports were 446,000 tons, and the five - year average was 250,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 1.31 million tons, compared with 1.35 million tons in the same period last year [34]. 2.5 China's Oil Imports - Data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that China's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 170,000 tons, 100,000 tons in February, 160,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 224,000 tons. The cumulative palm oil imports from January - March 2025 were 390,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons in the same period last year. China's rapeseed oil imports in March 2025 were 344,000 tons, 236,000 tons in February, 195,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 161,000 tons. The cumulative rapeseed oil imports from January - March 2025 were 732,000 tons, compared with 520,000 tons in the same period last year. China's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 39,000 tons, 42,000 tons in February, 126,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 111,000 tons. In 2025, sunflower oil imports were 131,000 tons, compared with 412,000 tons in the same period last year. In total, the imports of the above three major oils in March 2025 were 553,000 tons, 378,000 tons in February, 481,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 496,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils from January - March 2024 were 1.253 million tons, compared with 1.483 million tons in the same period last year [36]. 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - According to data from My Agri, as of the week ending May 2, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,800 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 626,800 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 231,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 356,100 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 103,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 795,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous week and an increase of 434,500 tons compared with the same period last year [41]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. The US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [44]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK - US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [45].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trends of the three major oils are quite different. The Malaysian crude palm oil futures have fallen to an 8 - month low, and the Dalian palm oil has also declined due to increased supply, weak exports, and pressure from the falling crude oil market. However, the lower price of palm oil compared to soybean oil may improve future exports and limit the price decline. Technically oversold conditions may also lead to price rebounds, and in the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate narrowly again. The expected increase in imported soybeans may ease the tight supply of soybean oil and potentially lower the basis in the future. Rapeseed oil is strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decline in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and US biodiesel policies [7] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil, spot 09 + 400, June - September 09 + 300; Third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 150. In May, the basis quotes of rapeseed oil traders in East China and Guangxi: Third - grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09 + 0. For 24 - degree palm oil in East China, from May 20 to June 15, the delivery price is P09 + 480 yuan/ton, and from June 25 to July 25, it is P09 + 400 yuan/ton [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. Reuters estimates that in April, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.62 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports were 1.1 million tons, consumption was 338,000 tons, and inventory was 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimates that production was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.13 million tons, imports were 70,000 tons, consumption was 325,000 tons, and inventory was 1.79 million tons [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated at 1.73 million tons, a 24.62% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimated April production at 1.62 million tons, imports at 50,000 tons, exports at 1.1 million tons, consumption at 338,000 tons, and inventory at 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, palm oil basis changes, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in East China, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate [10][19][21][26][27]