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大胆预测:今明两年,若无异常情况,社会可能迎来“五大趋势”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 00:08
Group 1: Real Estate Trends - Housing prices are expected to stabilize with a slight decline, but a crash is unlikely. Policies such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering interest rates have been implemented, but they only prevent drastic drops rather than reversing the trend. By 2025, a new normal of "stability with decline" is anticipated [4] - In 2022, national commercial housing sales area decreased by 5%-10%, and new construction area fell by 10%-15%. The enthusiasm for home buying among younger generations has significantly decreased, with over 60% of young people considering homeownership as non-essential [4] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment pressure is high, with over 10 million new graduates entering the job market and companies becoming increasingly selective. The global youth unemployment rate is projected to reach 12.6% in 2024, with a significant decline in low-skill job opportunities [5][6] - Many individuals are turning to flexible employment options such as food delivery and ride-sharing, with the food delivery sector alone absorbing over 7 million jobs, 35% of which are held by college graduates [7] Group 3: Financial Trends - Bank interest rates have dropped significantly, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1.5%, the lowest in history. This is part of an effort to encourage spending and investment in the real economy [8][9] - Despite lower interest rates, total deposits have increased by 8%, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment. Recommendations include diversifying investments into government bonds and structured deposits, which offer higher returns [10][11] Group 4: Technology Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an integral part of daily life, with applications in various sectors, including food service and banking. For instance, AI has replaced 30% of bank tellers and is being used in delivery services [12][13] - AI primarily replaces repetitive jobs, while roles requiring creativity and interpersonal skills are becoming more valuable. Embracing AI and acquiring new skills is encouraged [15][16] Group 5: Aging Population Trends - The aging population in China is accelerating, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older expected to rise from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2025. This demographic shift poses challenges for pension systems as the ratio of contributors to beneficiaries declines [17][18] - Innovative solutions such as intergenerational cohabitation, where younger individuals rent rooms from elderly residents while providing assistance, are emerging as potential strategies to address aging-related issues [19][20] - The aging industry is projected to see significant innovation and growth, with opportunities in smart caregiving and senior community services, representing a trillion-dollar market [21]
主动离开大厂,降薪去做日结工的年轻人:日赚200,我很快乐
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-17 01:50
Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of flexible employment, particularly day labor jobs, among young, highly educated individuals in China, contrasting it with traditional views of such work as undesirable or associated with laziness [1][6][11] - It highlights personal experiences of individuals who transitioned from stable, high-paying jobs in large companies to day labor, seeking more meaningful and enjoyable work experiences [3][5][26] Group 1: Employment Trends - The launch of WeChat's "Nearby Jobs" mini-program has facilitated access to over 20,000 job opportunities, including unique day labor roles with daily wages ranging from 100 to 300 yuan [1] - As of the end of 2024, the number of flexible workers in China is projected to exceed 200 million, accounting for about one-third of the labor force, with predictions suggesting it could reach 400 million by 2036 [5][6] Group 2: Personal Experiences - One individual, after leaving a high-paying job with a monthly salary of 50,000 yuan, explored various day labor roles, emphasizing the enjoyment and experiential learning over financial gain [3][19] - Another individual, a civil engineering master's graduate, turned to day labor after struggling to find suitable employment in a declining real estate market, ultimately finding satisfaction in diverse short-term jobs [5][26] Group 3: Changing Perceptions - The stigma associated with day labor and the "Sanhe Dajian" phenomenon has softened, with many now viewing these roles as a proactive response to employment pressures rather than a sign of failure [6][11] - The article references David Graeber's concept of "bullshit jobs," contrasting the meaningfulness of day labor with the perceived futility of some high-paying corporate roles, suggesting a shift in how individuals value their work [11][19]
【央广时评】新职业劳动者获表彰的“代入感”
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-04-30 07:45
表彰是为了弘扬劳模精神和劳动精神,激励广大劳动者积极投身中国式现代化建设。数据显示,我国新 就业群体总量已达8400万人,基本覆盖社会生产生活的各领域各层次。这些新职业劳动者有的是日夜忙 碌的"快递小哥",有的是勤劳奔跑的"外卖骑手",有的是长途货车司机、"网约车司机",有的是护理 工……他们是我们社会正常运转不可或缺的组成部分,是与千家万户打交道最多的群体之一,也是我们 的兄弟姐妹。"全国劳动模范""全国先进工作者"这一荣誉,不仅是对他们在行业领域深耕的最高褒奖, 而且对引领我们每个人的就业观念有深远意义。 新征程上,我国劳动者队伍将更加庞大多元,很多新岗位将应"需"而生。此次新职业劳动者代表获表 彰,体现了"劳动最光荣"的价值认同。只要踏实劳动、勤勉劳动,每个人都会在各自平凡岗位上干出不 平凡的业绩,都能够被尊重、被认同、被礼赞。 庆祝中华全国总工会成立100周年暨全国劳动模范和先进工作者表彰大会4月28日在京举行,包括1670名 全国劳动模范和756名全国先进工作者在内的2426人受到中共中央、国务院的表彰。 这是我国第17次评选表彰全国劳动模范和先进工作者。获表彰的人员中,既有来自传统农、林、牧、渔 ...
热点思考 | “稳就业”的核心抓手?
申万宏源宏观· 2025-04-14 11:42
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing pressure on youth employment and the need for enhanced employment stabilization policies in response to rising unemployment insurance expenditures [1][6][8]. Group 1: Causes of Employment Pressure - Structural unemployment is primarily driven by industrial restructuring and potential frictional unemployment due to tariffs. The proportion of unemployed individuals with junior high school education remains around 35%, while the share of college graduates and postgraduates has been increasing, reaching 15.5% and 2.2% respectively by 2022 [2][12][72]. - The overlap between low-education groups and migrant workers is significant, with both groups transitioning from manufacturing and construction to the tertiary sector. In 2022, 37.9% of unemployed individuals previously worked as production equipment operators, an increase of 7.5 percentage points since 2018 [17][72]. - Trade friction poses a risk to employment stability, particularly in industries with high reliance on imports from the U.S., such as computer communication and electrical machinery, where the average employment share exceeds 15% [3][30][78]. Group 2: Employment Opportunities - New demands and technologies are creating new job opportunities, particularly in social and life services. By 2023, employment in the tertiary sector increased by 2.8 percentage points compared to 2018, reaching 33.8% [4][40][79]. - Flexible employment roles, such as ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, are rapidly increasing, with the number of professional streamers projected to grow by 157% in 2024. This growth is attributed to lower educational requirements and experience needed for these positions [46][79]. - High-education groups face challenges as traditional industries contract while new technology sectors expand. From 2019 to 2023, employment in new technology sectors like electronic devices and electrical machinery grew at average rates of 9%, 8%, and 8%, while traditional sectors like oil and gas extraction saw declines of -5%, -3%, and -2% [52][53][79]. Group 3: Core Strategies for Employment Stabilization - The focus for stabilizing employment should be on enhancing support for the service sector while addressing skill mismatches in the labor market. Recent policies, such as paid internships for graduates, aim to bridge the gap between education and job market needs [5][57][80]. - Developing the service sector is crucial for alleviating employment pressure on low-education and migrant worker groups, as industries like accommodation and retail generate more jobs per unit of added value [60][67][80]. - Small and micro enterprises, representing a significant portion of the economy, require more fiscal and financial policy support to stimulate market demand and reduce operational costs. Recent surveys indicate that 47.4% of small business owners seek cost reduction measures, while 40.6% require financial support [67][80].
微信上线就近找零工服务;蜜雪冰城利润增加、利润率提高;OpenAI估值奔着3000亿美元而去丨百亿美元公司动向
晚点LatePost· 2025-03-28 12:12
微信搜一搜也推出 "附近的工作" 专区,用户在微信搜索 "附近的工作""兼职""日结""零工" 等关键 词,即可看到零工岗位的合集。这些信息由腾讯对本地招聘中介机构发布的零工招聘信息智能梳理 而来。目前该项服务已覆盖全国超 200 个地市。 去年 10 月,微信即针对零工市场推出找工作服务,上线初期仅覆盖广东江门。定位江门的用户, 可在微信进入 "零工市场"。"零工市场" 接入微信支付的 "微工卡" 数字化解决方案,提供微信零钱 及银行卡结算方式,并联合腾讯电子签、腾讯微保等业务,提供合同签约、实时定位打卡、日结保 险等服务。 蜜雪冰城利润增加、利润率提高。 微信要帮灵活就业者找工作。 微信上线 "附近的工作" 小程序,用户可在小程序内,看到附近的零工工作岗位及薪酬。目前该服 务已覆盖广东江门、河北唐山、江西九江、广东深圳、北京朝阳等地。腾讯称已提供超过 2 万个岗 位,所有岗位信息均由政府人社部门审核发布。 3 月 26 日,蜜雪冰城发布上市后首份财报。集团去年营业收入 248.3 亿元,同比增长 22.3%,净利 润 44.5 亿元,同比增长 39.8%。全球门店总数截至去年底 46479 家。上市 20 ...
当今闲鱼,不止闲余
盐财经· 2025-03-11 11:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of the AI product "Manus" by the Chinese team Monica.im, which has generated significant interest and demand, particularly reflected in the resale of its beta test invitations on platforms like Xianyu, where prices soared to 100,000 yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Xianyu's Market Dynamics - Xianyu has become a barometer for consumer trends, reflecting the rapid changes in market demand and serving as a platform for young consumers to engage with both technology and cultural phenomena [2][4]. - The platform has evolved from a simple second-hand marketplace to a significant player in the circular economy, with 1.78 billion users projected by April 2024, and nearly half of its users being under 30 years old [5][6]. - Daily, Xianyu sees 4 million items listed, with an average transaction volume exceeding 1 billion yuan, showcasing its robust trading activity [5][6]. Group 2: User Engagement and Community - Xianyu has transformed into a platform where users can monetize their skills and services, with approximately 9.45 million sellers offering skill-based side jobs, and 40.84% of these sellers being from the post-2000 generation [9][10]. - The platform supports diverse services, including unique offerings like "bad guy performances" for pet sterilization, reflecting the creative ways users are leveraging Xianyu for income [10][11]. - Xianyu's user base has surpassed 600 million, with a compound growth rate of nearly 30%, indicating its growing influence among younger demographics [16]. Group 3: Cultural Impact and Trends - The platform has become a cultural phenomenon, with the "Xianyu language" permeating social media, showcasing its influence beyond mere commerce [26][29]. - Interest-driven transactions account for 45% of the platform's activity, with 83 million active interest users, highlighting the importance of hobbies and personal interests in consumer behavior [17][18]. - Xianyu has established itself as a community hub for niche interests, allowing users to connect over shared passions, thus fostering a vibrant subculture [20][21]. Group 4: Future Prospects - As Xianyu continues to innovate and adapt, it is positioning itself as a professional online talent market, creating more opportunities for young people to engage in flexible employment [11][31]. - The platform's ability to reflect and respond to societal trends, such as the rise of AI and side hustles, indicates its potential for sustained relevance in the evolving digital economy [23][31].
“我国的社保数据,正出现惊人变化”
虎嗅APP· 2025-02-27 00:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and current state of China's social security system over the past 30 years, highlighting its achievements in achieving near-universal coverage while also addressing the emerging disparities in benefits among different groups [2][26]. Group 1: Social Security Development Over 30 Years - Since 1993, China has established the world's largest social security system, with social pension insurance covering 1.07 billion people and medical insurance covering 1.38 billion people, achieving near-universal coverage [5][6]. - The transition from a "state-unit guarantee system" during the planned economy to a "state-social guarantee system" has expanded coverage from urban residents to the entire population, including farmers and non-state sector employees [8][26]. Group 2: Achievements in Coverage - The social insurance participation rate for pension insurance rose from 27% in 2010 to 75% in 2022, while medical insurance participation has remained stable at around 95-96% since 2018 [7][26]. - The social security system has provided systematic support to previously unprotected groups, such as farmers and non-state sector employees, who are now significant beneficiaries of the system [10][11]. Group 3: Emerging Disparities - The main contradiction in the current social security system is the unequal distribution of benefits among different groups, with significant disparities between urban and rural residents, as well as between employees and non-employees [3][16]. - The gap between employee insurance and resident insurance has widened, with pension benefits for employees being 7.28 times higher than those for residents by 2020 [19][26]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The sustainability of the social security system requires substantial financial investment, and the burden on social security funds is increasing due to demographic changes such as aging and declining birth rates [27]. - Future efforts should focus on optimizing economic structures and seeking common interests among different social groups to enhance the effectiveness of the social security system as a safety net and economic stabilizer [27].