周二（7月22日），A股全天震荡走高，三大指数盘中均创年内新高，其中沪指斩获5连阳。两市全天放 量成交1.89万亿元，连续两日逾百股涨停。A股牛市氛围渐浓，盘面多点开花！ 主线一：大周期。受供需两端利好刺激，化工、有色等传统周期股继续走强，雅江超级水电站概念股持 续爆发，民爆等化工股受重视，易普力斩获两连板，化工ETF（516020）场内涨超2%日线四连阳创年 内新高，成交额达1.47亿元为历史次高！揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）收盘价刷新 2022年8月末以来新高！ 主线二：大消费。大消费同样表现亮眼，食品饮料、消费龙头、医疗医药集体走强。食品ETF （515710）、消费龙头ETF（516130）场内价格均涨超1%。医疗医药方面，港股、A股创新药板块表现 突出，丽珠集团A/H股双双走强，港股通创新药ETF（520880）、药ETF（562050）盘中均涨超2%。 主线三：大金融。作为牛市旗手、行情急先锋，券商、金融科技等午后明显走强，券商ETF （512000）、金融科技ETF（159851）场内双双收涨！其次，资金连续埋伏，512000近五日吸金超4亿 元，159851近10日获资 ...

策略观点：周期股异动是牛市主升浪的信号 之前产能过剩的周期行业（光伏、钢铁、化工等）近期开始有所表现，信达证券认为这种扩散可能是牛市进入中期主升浪的信号。最近的两次级别较大的 牛市中（2013-2015和2019-2021），在牛市初期（2013-2014年初、2019年-2020年初），周期股均明显跑输市场，不过到了牛市中后期，周期股明显开始 活跃。背后主要原因可能来自估值，牛市初期，股市增量资金较少，涨幅慢，此时能够上涨的板块主要是少部分有产业逻辑有业绩的方向（比如13年的 TMT、19年的半导体和白酒、过去1年的AI和新消费），但进入牛市中后期，居民资金会增多，大部分行业估值均能有不错的抬升。周期股因为在牛市初 期估值几乎没有抬升，所以牛市中期，周期股的估值优势较为突出，一旦有政策催化或基本面改善，股价跑赢指数的概率较高。后续可能有两种演绎方 式：（1）经济复苏偏弱，"反内卷"相关政策对供给影响速度较慢，周期等行业盈利并没有改善，则整体股市可能会演绎类似2014年下半年的牛市，周期 股在牛市中期会有1-2个季度不错的超额收益，但随后会面临波动。（2）"反内卷"政策对供给改善速度较快，并且需求层面的稳增长 ...

Group 1 - The current market stage is characterized by "asymmetric upside potential and locked downside risk," indicating that while downside risks are contained, there is significant room for upside gains [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has provided assurances for sufficient re-lending support to financial institutions, which is expected to bolster market liquidity [1][2] - Large state-owned insurance companies are mandated to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in insurance capital allocation to the market [1][2] Group 2 - The recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market rally, as these stocks typically underperform in the early stages of a bull market but gain traction later [2][3] - Historical data from previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) shows that cyclical stocks lag in the early phases but become more active as the market matures, primarily due to valuation advantages [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow into the market [3][4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend, driven by fundamental improvements and liquidity dynamics, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, technology independence, and resource stocks [3][4] - The upcoming Central Urban Work Conference is anticipated to address urban renewal and village renovation, which may influence market expectations regarding real estate policies [4]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the recent performance of previously oversupplied cyclical industries (such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals) may signal the entry of the bull market into its mid-term main upward wave [3][7][19] - In the two major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks significantly underperformed in the early stages but began to show strong performance in the later stages [3][8][10] - The steel sector is highlighted as the most representative cyclical industry due to its limited sub-sectors and high correlation with domestic macroeconomic demand [10][19] Group 2 - The report suggests that the main reason for the cyclical stocks' performance shift is related to valuation rather than earnings changes, as the fundamentals of cyclical stocks varied significantly in the two bull markets [3][13][19] - In the early stages of a bull market, only a few sectors see valuation increases, while in the later stages, most sectors experience valuation uplift, making cyclical stocks' valuation advantages more pronounced [3][13][19] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future: one where economic recovery is weak, leading to temporary excess returns for cyclical stocks, and another where rapid supply-side improvements and stable growth policies lead to a longer bullish trend for cyclical stocks [19][23][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, characterized by low valuations and active policy support, resemble the early stages of previous bull markets, suggesting a comprehensive bull market is likely [23][28] - The suggested tactical approach includes increasing allocations to sectors with elastic performance, such as non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [28][29] - Specific industry allocation recommendations include increasing exposure to non-bank financials, media, and cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel, which may benefit from stable supply policies and potential demand stabilization [29][30]