Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that adjustments in the US stock market may influence the A-share market, particularly when A-shares are at bull market peaks [2][8] - Historical data since 2000 shows that during four significant adjustments in the US market (2000-2002, 2008, Q1 2020, 2022), A-shares transitioned from bull to bear markets, except for Q1 2020 when A-shares were less affected [3][9] - The report suggests that the current A-share market is in the early to mid-stage of a bull market, with valuations in a reasonable range, which may mitigate the impact of US market fluctuations [3][9] Group 2 - The correlation between Japanese and US stock markets has been high, but there have been two significant periods of divergence lasting about ten years, during which the US market experienced substantial declines while the Japanese market rose [3][15] - The report posits that due to significant valuation differences between A-shares and US stocks, there is a considerable probability that the two markets may gradually decouple [17][18] - The report highlights that since 2021, foreign ownership of A-shares has been declining, and there has been no significant return of foreign capital to A-shares since the bull market began in September 2024, suggesting limited impact from US market volatility [18][20] Group 3 - The report anticipates a potential main upward trend in the A-share market driven by policy and capital, with expectations of increased resident capital inflow as the market stabilizes [21][23] - It suggests a shift in investment strategy from a "barbell" approach to a more flexible strategy, focusing on sectors with elastic performance such as non-bank financials and AI applications [25][26] - The report recommends increasing allocations in sectors like non-bank financials, media, and metals, while also considering cyclical stocks that may show elastic performance in the coming months [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the ChiNext index rising nearly 1% and the emergence of the first tenfold stock of the year, Upwind New Materials, which has reached a historical high [1][2][6]. Market Overview - The A-share market has opened a new week with collective gains across the three major indices, with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan [4][5]. - Analysts believe that the market is gradually clarifying its bottom, with improvements in policy, structure, and fundamentals [5]. Tenfold Stock Emergence - Upwind New Materials has become the first tenfold stock of the year, with a staggering increase of 1090.24% year-to-date [16]. - The stock's surge is attributed to a significant announcement on July 8 regarding a planned acquisition of at least 63.62% of its shares by Shanghai Zhiyuan New Technology Co., which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the humanoid robotics sector [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential tenfold stocks, with 21 stocks in the A-share market having increased over 200% this year, particularly in the innovative drug, computing, and chemical sectors [15][12]. - The resource, military, and AI sectors are identified as key areas for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by policy support and market demand [24][28]. Bull Market Outlook - Analysts from Xinda Securities suggest that a bull market's main upward wave is approaching, driven by policy and capital [20][18]. - The market is expected to respond positively to various favorable conditions, with a likelihood of increased retail investment as the year progresses [20][18]. Strategic Investment Approach - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on long-term perspectives and avoiding frequent trading to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [30][31]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain discipline and patience, as market fluctuations are a normal part of the investment landscape [31].

周二（7月22日），A股全天震荡走高，三大指数盘中均创年内新高，其中沪指斩获5连阳。两市全天放 量成交1.89万亿元，连续两日逾百股涨停。A股牛市氛围渐浓，盘面多点开花！ 主线一：大周期。受供需两端利好刺激，化工、有色等传统周期股继续走强，雅江超级水电站概念股持 续爆发，民爆等化工股受重视，易普力斩获两连板，化工ETF（516020）场内涨超2%日线四连阳创年 内新高，成交额达1.47亿元为历史次高！揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）收盘价刷新 2022年8月末以来新高！ 主线二：大消费。大消费同样表现亮眼，食品饮料、消费龙头、医疗医药集体走强。食品ETF （515710）、消费龙头ETF（516130）场内价格均涨超1%。医疗医药方面，港股、A股创新药板块表现 突出，丽珠集团A/H股双双走强，港股通创新药ETF（520880）、药ETF（562050）盘中均涨超2%。 主线三：大金融。作为牛市旗手、行情急先锋，券商、金融科技等午后明显走强，券商ETF （512000）、金融科技ETF（159851）场内双双收涨！其次，资金连续埋伏，512000近五日吸金超4亿 元，159851近10日获资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of cyclical stocks, such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals, indicates a potential signal for the mid-stage main upward wave of the bull market [1][12] Group 1: Historical Context - In previous major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks underperformed in the early stages but became active in the later stages [2][5] - During the mid-stage of the 2014-2015 bull market, cyclical stocks outperformed despite weak economic conditions and declining commodity prices, driven by themes like mergers and acquisitions and state-owned enterprise reforms [2][5] - In the 2020-2021 bull market, cyclical stocks significantly outperformed as the economy stabilized and commodity prices rose [2][5] Group 2: Reasons Behind Performance - The underperformance of cyclical stocks in the early bull market stages is attributed to limited incremental capital, leading to slow price increases, while only a few sectors with strong fundamentals saw gains [9][12] - As the bull market progresses, increased resident capital leads to valuation uplifts across most sectors, with cyclical stocks benefiting from their low valuations in the early stages [9][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - There are two potential scenarios for the future: 1. If economic recovery is weak and supply-side policies take time to impact, cyclical stocks may see 1-2 quarters of excess returns but face volatility afterward [12] 2. If supply-side policies improve quickly and demand-side growth policies show results, cyclical stocks could experience a year-long rally starting from the mid-stage of the bull market [12] - Regardless of the scenario, cyclical stocks are expected to generate excess returns within the next 1-2 quarters [12] Group 4: Current Market Judgments - The current market is characterized by low valuations, weak corporate earnings, and positive policy signals, resembling the early stages of previous bull markets [16] - The market is entering a phase driven by policy improvements and capital inflows, suggesting a broader bull market is likely [16] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adopt a flexible allocation strategy, increasing exposure to non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [18][19] - The focus should shift from a "barbell strategy" to an "elastic strategy," with strong performance anticipated in sectors like new consumption and AI, which are less correlated with the economy [18][19]

Group 1 - The current market stage is characterized by "asymmetric upside potential and locked downside risk," indicating that while downside risks are contained, there is significant room for upside gains [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has provided assurances for sufficient re-lending support to financial institutions, which is expected to bolster market liquidity [1][2] - Large state-owned insurance companies are mandated to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in insurance capital allocation to the market [1][2] Group 2 - The recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market rally, as these stocks typically underperform in the early stages of a bull market but gain traction later [2][3] - Historical data from previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) shows that cyclical stocks lag in the early phases but become more active as the market matures, primarily due to valuation advantages [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow into the market [3][4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend, driven by fundamental improvements and liquidity dynamics, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, technology independence, and resource stocks [3][4] - The upcoming Central Urban Work Conference is anticipated to address urban renewal and village renovation, which may influence market expectations regarding real estate policies [4]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the recent performance of previously oversupplied cyclical industries (such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals) may signal the entry of the bull market into its mid-term main upward wave [3][7][19] - In the two major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks significantly underperformed in the early stages but began to show strong performance in the later stages [3][8][10] - The steel sector is highlighted as the most representative cyclical industry due to its limited sub-sectors and high correlation with domestic macroeconomic demand [10][19] Group 2 - The report suggests that the main reason for the cyclical stocks' performance shift is related to valuation rather than earnings changes, as the fundamentals of cyclical stocks varied significantly in the two bull markets [3][13][19] - In the early stages of a bull market, only a few sectors see valuation increases, while in the later stages, most sectors experience valuation uplift, making cyclical stocks' valuation advantages more pronounced [3][13][19] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future: one where economic recovery is weak, leading to temporary excess returns for cyclical stocks, and another where rapid supply-side improvements and stable growth policies lead to a longer bullish trend for cyclical stocks [19][23][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, characterized by low valuations and active policy support, resemble the early stages of previous bull markets, suggesting a comprehensive bull market is likely [23][28] - The suggested tactical approach includes increasing allocations to sectors with elastic performance, such as non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [28][29] - Specific industry allocation recommendations include increasing exposure to non-bank financials, media, and cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel, which may benefit from stable supply policies and potential demand stabilization [29][30]