不太懂二级，接了点现货，我觉得CFX白天的这个这个消息是足够特别的，等明天A股东信和平开盘再看看了。 https://t.co/B7fPwcppkg ...

Market Sentiment - Trader expresses desire to leverage Ethereum due to price increase, but recalls past liquidation experience at $4,000 [1] - Trader reports being liquidated and declares "it's over" [1] Risk Management - Trader decides against leveraging, opting for spot trading to mitigate risk [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - The fundamentals are expected to weaken. Hold short positions above 14,000 and monitor raw material supply in various producing areas and US tariff changes [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is facing inventory accumulation pressure due to oversupply. Although prices are rising under policy expectations, downstream demand remains weak. It is beneficial for polysilicon - industrial silicon arbitrage and buying stocks of photovoltaic industry chain enterprises, but beware of the impact of high - cost transfer on weak demand [3]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly supported by production cuts, but in the long term, over - supply pressure may increase. Pay attention to the impact of polysilicon production changes on demand and policy effects [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is in an obvious oversupply situation. Wait for the opportunity to short after the market sentiment fades. Glass has a short - term rebound, but the demand is weak. Wait for more cold - repair actions to bring a real turnaround and currently suggest waiting and seeing [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a period of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some varieties such as Yunnan state - owned standard rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged on July 9 compared to July 8. The full - latex basis and non - standard price difference decreased significantly [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.33%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.53% [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased, domestic tire production decreased slightly, and tire exports increased. The import of natural rubber decreased [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased, while the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased on July 9 compared to July 8, with increases of 2.56% and 4.11% respectively [3]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The PS2506 contract price increased by 2.31%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread which decreased by 298.85% [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon production increased. In May, polysilicon imports decreased, exports decreased, and net exports increased. Silicon wafer production decreased in the short term but increased slightly in May [3]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon increased by 1.24%, and the basis of some varieties increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads changed, such as the 2507 - 2508 spread which decreased by 88.00% [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the national industrial silicon production increased, with significant increases in Yunnan and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC production increased, and polysilicon production also increased [4]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased slightly, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in some regions remained unchanged, and the prices of glass futures contracts increased slightly [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Soda ash prices in some regions decreased, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts increased [6]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while float glass daily melting volume increased and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [6]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [6]. Real Estate Data - Real estate new - start area, completion area, and sales area showed positive changes compared to the previous period, while the construction area decreased [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot varieties decreased [8]. Import Cost - The import theoretical cost increased by 4% [8]. Supply - Port shipping volume increased, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [8]. Inventory - National log inventory decreased, and inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [8]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume increased [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - For palm oil, there is potential for the crude palm oil futures to break through previous highs, but beware of the risk of price pull - back around the MPOB report. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term. For soybean oil, the US Senate's fiscal expenditure bill may boost consumption and support prices in the long - term, while the domestic soybean oil basis decline is limited due to import cost support [1]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a small rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term, but a bearish view is held after the rebound considering future imports [3]. Eggs - The national egg supply is sufficient, demand is general, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short - term, and remain stable later [7]. Cotton - The short - term supply shortage of old - crop cotton is difficult to resolve, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, so cotton prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [10]. Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, and Brazilian soybean prices are rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and the basis is stable. The soybean meal market is currently bottom - grinding, and attention should be paid to the 2950 support level [12]. Corn - The spot price of corn is firm, but the futures price has declined due to import auctions. In the medium - term, the supply shortage and increasing consumption may support price increases. Short - term operations are recommended [14]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is pressure on the 09 contract above 14,500 [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, soybean oil spot price was 8260, futures price (Y2509) was 8018; palm oil spot price (Guangdong 24 - degree) was 8460, futures price (P2509) was 8440; rapeseed oil spot price (Jiangsu fourth - grade) was 9730, futures price (OI509) was 9618 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of soybean oil (Y2509) was 242, down 26; the basis of palm oil (P2509) was 20, down 74; the basis of rapeseed oil (OI509) was 111, down 42. The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 44, up 2; the palm oil 09 - 01 spread was - 10, up 14; the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 32.65% [1]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of sugar 2601 was 5580, down 16; the price of sugar 2509 was 5766, down 9. The spot price in Nanning was 6070, down 20 [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons [3]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3678, down 6; the price of the egg 08 contract was 3544, down 24. The egg产区 price was 2.60, unchanged [7]. - **Industry Data**: The price of day - old chicks was 4.00, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.62, up 0.18; the egg - feed ratio was 2.24, down 0.09; the breeding profit was - 33.26, down 5.38 [7]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of cotton 2509 was 13805, up 60; the price of cotton 2601 was 13820, up 65. The ICE US cotton主力 price was 67.96, down 0.08 [10]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory was 312.69 million tons, down 33.18 million tons; the industrial inventory was 93.01 million tons, down 1.10 million tons [10]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of soybean meal (Jiangsu) was 2840, unchanged; the price of soybean meal futures (M2509) was 2944, down 17. The price of rapeseed meal (Jiangsu) was 2470, down 20; the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2509) was 2578, down 8 [12]. - **Industry Data**: The Brazilian 8 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was - 16, down 14.4%; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 107, unchanged [12]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of corn 2509 was 2363, down 20; the price of corn starch 2509 was 2731, down 12 [14]. - **Industry Data**: The import profit of corn was 579, down 1; the import profit of corn starch was - 100, down 5 [14]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 13550, up 160; the price of the pig 2509 contract was 14340, up 475. The spot price in Henan was 15100, up 50 [18]. - **Industry Data**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 136895, down 1775; the weekly white - strip price was 20.43, up 0.1 [18].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the silicon iron and manganese silicon industries are both "shockingly strong due to the boost of macro - sentiment" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are affected by macro - sentiment and are expected to show a shockingly strong trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing prices of SiFe2508 and SiFe2509 are 5446 and 5436 respectively, up 166 from the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 8,955 and 274,236, and the open interests are 21,646 and 195,900. For manganese silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2508 and MnSi2509 are 5712 and 5726 respectively, up 96 and 102. Their trading volumes are 6,962 and 305,351, and the open interests are 13,908 and 382,828 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5100 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 38.5 yuan/ton - degree (up 0.2), and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 580 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 08 futures price difference of silicon iron is - 346 yuan/ton (down 166), the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon is - 226 yuan/ton (down 102). The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2508 - 2509 is 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and that of manganese silicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton (up 4). The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2508 - silicon iron 2508 is 266 yuan/ton (down 70), and that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 is 290 yuan/ton (down 64) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 2, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was reported, with Inner Mongolia's price range of 5100 - 5150 (down 50). The price range of 75 silicon iron was also reported. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron were 1000 - 1030 and 1080 - 1110 US dollars/ton respectively. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese in the north was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 50), and in the south was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 50) [2] - According to the latest data from the South African Trade Statistics Bureau, South Africa's manganese ore exports in May were 2,429,691 tons, a slight increase of 0.82% month - on - month and a slight decrease of 6.14% year - on - year. From January to May 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 10.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% compared with 9.92 million tons in the same period last year, reaching a new high in the past 8 years [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 1, and that of manganese silicon is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy can be considered [1]. - For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volumes** - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, and (night session) was 8,324 yuan/ton with a - 0.62% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 210,910 hands to 442,785 hands, and open interest decreased by 4,500 hands to 450,508 hands [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,002 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase, and (night session) was 7,982 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 95,869 hands to 270,622 hands, and open interest decreased by 5,507 hands to 564,645 hands [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,466 yuan/ton with a - 0.17% decrease, and (night session) was 9,452 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 86,818 hands to 214,216 hands, and open interest decreased by 8,794 hands to 319,403 hands [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,012 ringgit/ton with a 1.19% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 52.62 cents/pound with a - 0.44% decrease [1]. - **Spot Prices** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,520 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: Spot price was 1,005 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis and Spreads** - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 124 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 238 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 1,090 yuan/ton, down from 1,122 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 374 yuan/ton, down from - 360 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down from 0 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 44 yuan/ton, down from 62 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan/ton, down from 78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In Argentina, the soybean and corn harvesting progress has reached 98.3% and 55.3% respectively, and the expected yields are 50.3 million tons and 49 million tons [2]. - Due to the planned tariff increase, Argentine exporters have exported 6.1 million tons of soybeans and their derivatives since June, a 22% surge compared to the five - year average. The soybean export tariff will rise from 26% to 33% in July, and the tariffs for soybean oil and soybean meal will increase from 24.5% to 31% [5]. - Strategie Grains has raised the forecast for the 2025/26 EU rapeseed production to 19.2 million tons, a 600,000 - ton increase from last month's forecast and a 14% increase compared to 2024/25. The sunflower seed production forecast has been lowered by 300,000 tons to 10.1 million tons but is still 19% higher than 2024/25. The soybean production forecast remains at 3 million tons, 4% lower than last year [5]. - As of the week ending June 24, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Alberta was 57.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed crops are at various growth stages. In 2025, Canadian farmers planted 21.5 million acres of rapeseed, a 2.5% decrease from the previous year. In Saskatchewan, the planted area decreased by 0.5%, in Alberta by 2.8%, and in Manitoba by 9.2% [6]. - As of the week ending June 22, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 10.3% to 117,900 tons. From August 1, 2024, to June 22, 2025, exports reached 8.9319 million tons, a 52.7% increase compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 1.2816 million tons [7]. - In May 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 831,193 tons, a 9.59% month - on - month decrease; rapeseed oil production was 353,218 tons, a 9.5% decrease; rapeseed meal production was 490,043 tons, a 9.76% decrease. The soybean crushing volume was 158,387 tons, a 7.97% increase; soybean oil production was 29,379 tons, a 6.64% increase; soybean meal production was 121,417 tons, a 4.66% increase [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the cease - fire between Iran and Israel this week, oil prices quickly gave back the geopolitical premium and returned to a volatile state. The upstream cost support collapsed, and the PTA futures market followed suit. However, in terms of supply - demand structure, PTA itself did not accumulate inventory. It is expected that the PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate and adjust following the cost side in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the polyester load reduction in July [5]. - MEG: At the beginning of this week, the ethylene glycol port inventory will still show a certain decline. However, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign - owned vessels at the beginning of July, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The domestic and foreign supply will gradually recover, and the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall increase of around 200,000 tons. The on - site spot liquidity will continue to be released. In addition, the polyester sales have been weak recently, and the terminal load has declined. The subsequent industrial chain contradictions will gradually be transmitted upwards. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, there were transactions for mid - to - late July at 09 + 250 - 257, with the price negotiation range around 5,000 - 5,045. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 255. The 3.6 - million - ton unit of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load last week, and by Friday, the PTA load dropped to 77.7% [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5,025, and the basis of the 09 contract is 247, with the futures price at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position increased, which is bullish [6]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market trading was weak. The domestic and foreign price centers of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The recent mainstream negotiation price for foreign vessels was around 506 - 511 US dollars/ton, and the domestic trading negotiation range was 4,323 - 4,370 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,340, and the basis of the 09 contract is 69, with the futures price at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons compared to the previous period, which is bullish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position increased, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand situation and inventory changes of PTA over the years [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on June 26 and 27, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data of futures contracts [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 through charts, including factory inventory days and port inventory [41][43]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It presents the operating rate data of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 through charts, reflecting the production status of the polyester industry chain [52][54][56][58]. - **Profit Data**: It includes the profit data of PTA processing, MEG production in different ways, and polyester fiber production from 2022 to 2025, helping to analyze the profitability of the industry [60][63][65]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel market maintains a volatile state, lacking a clear price - rebound driver. The cost - collapse narrative of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has increased. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited. It is recommended that industrial customers participate in hedging [6][7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the steel tender prices have been finalized, and the prices are temporarily stable. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - In the iron ore market, the basis has rapidly shrunk. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 23, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various steel products showed different changes in prices, increases, and decreases. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices fluctuated on Monday, and spot prices varied. The transaction volume rebounded to over 100,000 tons. The cost collapse of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a futures - at - discount - to - spot structure, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventory. Pay attention to short - term spreads for arbitrage on the futures market [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has exceeded 90%. The prices of some coking coal varieties have rebounded, and the prices of Mongolian coal in some regions have changed. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is priced at 1140 (-10), and the coking coal price index is 937.6 (-1.2) [6]. - **Futures Market**: The black chain index continued to oscillate strongly. The coking coal price closed above the 800 mark, mainly affected by strict safety inspections in the main producing areas. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited [6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Industrial customers are recommended to actively participate in hedging [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Tender Prices**: The new round of ferrosilicon tender price of a North China steel mill is 5500 yuan/ton (tax - included, ex - factory acceptance), a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous round, with a purchase quantity of 290 tons. The June silicomanganese alloy tender price of a large North China steel mill is 5650 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the inquiry price and a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the May price, with a purchase quantity of 1700 tons, a 100 - ton increase compared to the previous month [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, but market confidence has slightly stabilized. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a long position in ferrosilicon and a short position in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading with options [7]. Iron Ore - **Basis and Transportation**: The basis has rapidly shrunk to 20 on Monday, and the optimal deliverable is brbf. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage [7]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price has fallen to narrow the basis. The molten iron output has slightly increased, and the steel mill inventory has significantly rebounded. Although the downstream steel demand in the off - season is better than expected, if the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the fundamental analysis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including price trends, trading volume, positions, and macro - industry news [1][2][4] Core Views - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [1] - For soybean oil, there is a risk of a price pull - back due to potential geopolitical easing [1] Industry News - ITS reported that Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% or 59.9 million tons month - on - month to 1.983 billion tons [2] - The USDA predicted that the total cost of producing soybeans in the US in 2025 would be $639.15 per acre, and in 2026 it would be $650.34 per acre [4] - As of the week ending June 17, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and 2% last year [4] - Analysts noted that rainfall in the Canadian prairies is expected to ease the drought, where about 40% of the area is currently experiencing drought. The Canadian Statistics Bureau will release a sowing area report on June 27, and its March report showed that the rapeseed planting area was 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season [4] Futures Market Data Price and Price Change | Variety | Day - session Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Day - session Price Change (%) | Night - session Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Night - session Price Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 8,538 | 0.23% | 8,596 | 0.68% | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,152 | 0.84% | 8,196 | 0.54% | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,691 | - 0.12% | 9,737 | 0.47% | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract (ringgit/ton) | 4,102 | 0.02% | 4,143 | 0.95% | [1] Trading Volume and Position | Variety | Previous Trading Volume (lots) | Trading Volume Change | Previous Position (lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 605,854 | - 49,717 | 505,691 | - 6,669 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 463,250 | 35,939 | 615,911 | 30,527 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 314,433 | - 118,096 | 390,919 | 2,081 | [1] Spot Price and Price Change | Variety | Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 8,800 | 0 | | First - grade Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,360 | 70 | | Fourth - grade Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 9,760 | 10 | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract, US dollars/ton) | 1,005 | 10 | [1] Basis and Spread | Variety | Basis (yuan/ton) | Spread (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 262 | Palm Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 30 (Previous: 42) | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 208 | Soybean Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 76 (Previous: 70) | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 69 | Rapeseed Oil 9 - 1 Spread: 115 (Previous: 130) | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 1,153 (Previous: 1,185) | | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | - 386 (Previous: - 434) | | [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 11, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,560 yuan/ton and an intraday increase of 2.23% [2]. - With the full - scale reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region and the continuous decline of silicon coal and electrodes, the cost center of industrial silicon has been continuously adjusted downwards. The operating level of silicon plants during the wet season has been reduced to the limit, and there are few variables on the demand side, so industrial silicon has stopped falling in the short term. Polysilicon has continued to reduce its load comprehensively, and there is still a possibility of expanding the production - restriction quota through industry self - discipline in the future. A new round of order signing has been completed, but the volume is limited, and from the perspective of spot trading, low - grade products are more resistant to price drops than high - grade products. Polysilicon remains weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, up 0.72% intraday, with a position reduction of 2,509 lots to 60,199 lots. The SMM N - type polysilicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest - delivery N - type polysilicon material remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 2,245 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 7,560 yuan/ton, up 2.23% intraday, with a position reduction of 8,591 lots to 147,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 8,750 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The price of the lowest - delivery 553 grade dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 7,395 yuan/ton on June 10 to 7,475 yuan/ton on June 11, up 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract also increased by 80 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable. The spot premium narrowed from 205 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 578 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 13,400 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 33,955 yuan/ton on June 10 to 34,255 yuan/ton on June 11, up 300 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,545 yuan/ton to 2,245 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 120 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 100 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][15][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, and total social inventory), DMC, and polysilicon [19][23][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][26][28]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [35].