Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and closed down 60 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton. September's export volume decreased by 8% month-on-month to 70,200 tons but remained year-on-year growth. In October, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region reduced production, the impact on output was small, and the supply side still increased due to the increase in Xinjiang's output. Considering the potential increase in raw material costs such as coal prices and the rise in electricity prices in November, the future price center is expected to move up. Currently, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to the low level of 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon rose by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg, and the futures price fluctuated and slightly rebounded by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, with futures at a discount. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the demand for battery wafers was supported by overseas purchases driven by India's ALMM policy and the demand for high - efficiency wafers in domestic centralized projects. It is highly likely that the output will increase in October. Whether the demand can absorb the increased output during the fourth - quarter rush installation and the increase in export orders will have a significant impact on prices. Currently, the polysilicon market is relatively stable. One should pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders. In the future, the supply in the southwest region will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices, but one should guard against the risk of inventory accumulation due to lower - than - expected demand [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing, highlighting the surplus. The weekly output is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. Most of the inventory has been transferred to the mid - and downstream, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. One can track macro fluctuations and the load - control situation of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the operation idea is to short on rebounds [4]. - Glass manufacturers' sales are average, and they continue to cut prices. Hubei's price is basically at par with the futures market. In recent days, the futures market has continued to weaken, trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental surplus. In addition, the mid - stream inventory in some regions remains high without obvious destocking. In terms of industry supply - demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the LOW - E开工率 remains low without obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the surplus problem. Currently, the futures market has been trading on the non - prosperous peak - season logic. In the medium term, one should pay attention to the spot trading rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the prices of overseas raw materials have been firm recently, and the significant destocking of dark - colored rubber still provides cost support for rubber prices. However, there is a strong expectation that the weather in northeastern Thailand will improve, and the raw material prices are expected to weaken. One should pay attention to future weather conditions. On the demand side, after the "Double Festival" holiday, most of the enterprises that had maintenance have resumed normal production, but the overall market has not shown obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term, adjusting production according to their own orders. In summary, the short - term macro - environment has improved, and the rubber price has rebounded due to the improvement in fundamentals. One should pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to operate around 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. Logs - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the 2601 contract closing at 838 yuan/cubic meter, up 3.5 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong being 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 780 yuan/cubic meter. Last week, the inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. On the demand side, the outbound volume increased. As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week. On the supply side, this week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 from the previous week; the total arrival volume is about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5%. Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand of logs. The 01 contract is relatively strong. The new round of overseas quotes has increased, and the subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot prices of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 21 compared with October 20. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 60 to 845, with a 7.64% increase; the basis of SI4210 increased by 60 to 392, with a 17.91% increase; the basis of Xinjiang increased by 60 to 1045, with a 6.09% increase [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 45 to - 40, a decrease of 900%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 remained unchanged; the spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 5 to 55, an increase of 10%; the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 to - 10, an increase of 33.33%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 to - 5, a decrease of 150% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, an increase of 9.10%; Xinjiang's output increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, an increase of 19.78%; Yunnan's output increased by 1,400 tons to 59,500 tons, an increase of 2.41%; Sichuan's output decreased by 800 tons to 52,900 tons, a decrease of 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%; Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74.00%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71%; Sichuan's operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 44.94%. The output of silicone DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a decrease of 5.78%; the output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 46,000 tons to 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 6,400 tons to 70,200 tons, a decrease of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased slightly by 0.01% to 108,500 tons; Yunnan's factory inventory remained unchanged; Sichuan's factory inventory increased by 2.89% to 25,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 3.12% to 562,000 tons; the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6.45% to 317,700 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.92% to 244,300 tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 53,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged; the basis of N - type material decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 2,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price increased by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%. The spread of the current month - the first continuous contract increased by 52,265 yuan/ton to 1,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 103.82%; the spread of the first continuous - the second continuous contract increased by 130 yuan/ton to - 2,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.22%; the spread of the second continuous - the third continuous contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 87.50% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - The output of silicon wafers increased by 15,200 tons to 143,500 tons, an increase of 11.85%; the output of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the import volume increased by 300 tons to 1,300 tons, an increase of 28.46%; the export volume decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decrease of 28.16%; the net export volume decreased by 1,100 tons to 900 tons, a decrease of 56.83%. The output of silicon wafers increased by 30,100 tons to 590,500 tons, an increase of 5.37%; the import volume decreased by 100 tons to 400 tons, a decrease of 17.96%; the export volume remained unchanged at 6,700 tons; the net export volume increased by 100 tons to 6,300 tons, an increase of 1.96%. The demand for silicon wafers increased by 27,200 tons to 613,400 tons, an increase of 4.64% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, an increase of 5.42%; the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5,300 tons to 173,100 tons, an increase of 3.16%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,290 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices of glass in North China, East China, South China remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 76, a decrease of 24.59% [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly. The 05 basis increased by 6 to 2, an increase of 150% [4]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37 percentage points to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37%. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 62,824,000 weight boxes; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 1.6598 million tons; the soda ash delivery inventory increased by 4.05% [4]. Real - estate Data (Month - on - Month) - The new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber remained unchanged; the basis of full - latex decreased by 340 to - 850, a decrease of 66.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference decreased by 240 to - 600, a decrease of 66.67%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 0.25 baht/kg to 50.45 baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna increased by 300 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 to - 5, a decrease of 10%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to 5, an increase of 200%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to - 50, a decrease of 11.11% [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decrease of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%; the operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52%. In August, the domestic tire output increased by 859,000 to 102.954 million; in September, the tire export volume decreased by 671,000 to 5.63 million. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, an increase of 9.68%; in September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons to 740,000 tons, an increase of 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand increased by 67 yuan/ton to 12,717 yuan/ton,

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term drive is limited, with weak oscillations. Supply is expected to contract, but overall remains weak. Suggest to wait and see, focus on Brent crude oil support at $60/barrel, and conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [1]. - PTA: Short - term drive is limited, with weak oscillations. Spot basis has weakened, but the downward space is limited. Suggest to wait and see, focus on Brent crude oil support at $60/barrel, and treat TA1 - 5 with rolling reverse arbitrage [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply is abundant, with expected inventory accumulation in October and high accumulation in November - December. Suggest to short EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of call option EG2601 - C - 4250, and conduct EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage at high prices [1]. - Short - fiber: Supply is at a high level, and terminal demand in Q4 is expected to be weak. Prices are supported in the short - term due to low inventory. Suggest the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading, and shrink the processing margin when it is above 1000 in the range of 800 - 1100 [1]. - Bottle - chip: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, prices fluctuate with the cost side. Suggest the same strategy as PTA for PR single - side trading, and expect the main - contract processing margin to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, with weak price drive. Suggest BZ2603 to oscillate following styrene and oil prices [2]. - Styrene: Supply will remain high, and demand support is limited. Prices are still under pressure in the short - term. Suggest to short EB12 on price rebounds [2]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Short - term supply is increasing, and demand support is weak, with prices tending to be weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is demand support. Suggest to short in the short - term and track downstream restocking [3]. - PVC: Supply and demand pressure is high, and the contradiction is difficult to resolve. Cost provides bottom support. Suggest to stop short - selling and wait for changes in demand [3]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: Prices may continue to oscillate. Focus on overseas device stability, customs clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival. Pay attention to port inventory reduction and overseas gas - limiting expectations [4]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Supply pressure is prominent in the medium - to - long - term, and demand lacks bright spots. The 01 - contract upside is limited. Prices are under pressure due to macro - environment, cost, and supply - demand factors [6]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (December) decreased slightly. CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged. Most upstream prices were stable or slightly decreased [1]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices decreased slightly, and cash flows showed different changes [1]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX remained unchanged, while PX spot price in RMB decreased by 1.2% [1]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot price decreased by 0.6%, and futures prices also decreased slightly [1]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot price decreased by 0.4%, and futures prices had minor changes [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased, while PTA and MEG operating rates increased slightly [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased slightly, and most upstream prices remained stable [2]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and cash flows and spreads changed [2]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of most downstream products improved [2]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: Operating rates of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industries decreased [2]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: Caustic soda prices decreased, PVC prices remained stable, and futures prices had minor changes [3]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB quotes and export profits decreased [3]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR quotes decreased slightly, and export profits decreased significantly [3]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates decreased, and some profit indicators changed [3]. - **Demand: Downstream Operating Rates**: Some downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed [3]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased slightly [3]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices had minor changes, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, while port and social inventories decreased [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream operating rate decreased, and overseas upstream operating rate increased [4]. Polyolefin Industry - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of LLDPE and PP increased slightly, and spot prices also had minor changes [6]. - **PE and PP Non - standard Prices**: Some non - standard prices of PE and PP decreased slightly [6]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates changed slightly, and downstream weighted operating rates increased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Polyester Industry**: In the short term, PX, PTA, and other products are mainly in a weak shock state. The supply of PX is expected to shrink, but the overall supply - demand is still weak. PTA's basis has weakened, and the supply of ethylene glycol is abundant with a high probability of inventory accumulation. Short - fiber prices are supported by low inventory, and bottle - chips may enter a seasonal inventory accumulation channel [1]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene in October is expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The demand for caustic soda is weakly supported in the short term but may have support in the medium - long term. The supply - demand pressure of PVC is large, and the price is weak, but the cost end provides bottom support [3]. - **Methanol Industry**: The price of methanol may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the stability of overseas device operation, the clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and the actual arrival performance [4]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (December) remained unchanged, CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, etc [1]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price decreased by 0.1%, etc [1]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 1.2%, etc [1]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price decreased by 0.6%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 0.4%, etc [1]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.4%, EG futures 2601 remained unchanged, etc [1]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4%, China PX operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (November) remained unchanged, CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, etc [2]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.7%, EB futures 2511 decreased by 1.8%, etc [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol increased by 20.8%, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) increased by 4.1%, etc [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 10.0%, styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.1% [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1%, domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8%, etc [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 1.2%, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 0.8%, etc [3]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB East China port decreased by 5.0%, export profit decreased by 77.6% [3]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, CEREDIa decreased by 1.4%, etc [3]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0%, etc [3]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates**: Viscose staple fiber industry operating rate decreased by 1.1%, printing and dyeing industry operating rate increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates**: Longzhong sample building materials operating rate increased by 21.8%, Longzhong sample profile operating rate increased by 109.6% [3]. - **Chlor - Alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 6.1% [3]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 0.26%, MA2605 closing price increased by 0.09%, etc [4]. - **Methanol Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, methanol port inventory decreased by 3.36%, etc [4]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.86%, upstream - overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 2.28%, etc [4]. Polyolefin Industry - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price increased by 0.07%, L2509 closing price increased by 0.30%, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Non - Standard Prices**: East China LDPE price decreased by 0.54%, East China HD film price remained unchanged, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26%, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67%, PE social inventory increased by 4.02%, etc [6].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The price may continue to fluctuate under the game of supply and demand. Focus on the stability of overseas device operation, the customs - clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival performance. Pay attention to the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - limiting expectations [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The inventory pressure after the holiday is still significant. The supply pressure is prominent in the medium - and long - term, and the demand lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Caustic Soda - There is demand support in the medium - and long - term, but it is weak in the short term. It was previously recommended to be bearish, and now the short positions can be temporarily closed as the market stabilizes [8]. PVC - The short - term disk may continue to be under pressure. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased and exports have recovered, the demand in the peak season is weak. Pay attention to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. PX - The supply and demand are expected to be weak in the fourth quarter. It will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and mainly conduct reverse spreads on the monthly spread [9]. PTA - The short - term drive is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see TA, pay attention to the support around 4500, and conduct rolling reverse spreads on TA1 - 5 [9]. Ethylene Glycol - It is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and the supply - demand structure is weak in the far - month. It is recommended to short EG01 on rallies, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse spreads on EG1 - 5 [9]. Short Fibers - The absolute price is still under pressure in the short term, but it is relatively strong compared to raw materials due to low inventory. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and widen the processing margin at a low level [9]. Bottle Chips - It is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. PR follows the cost end, and the processing margin improves in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [9]. Pure Benzene - The overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [10]. Styrene - The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. EB11 should be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Catalog Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices rose slightly on October 16. The basis and regional spreads changed. The spot prices in some regions decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, the port inventory decreased by 3.36%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.61% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86%, the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 5.33%. Some downstream operating rates changed, with the MTO device operating rate increasing by 4.63% [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - **Price and Spread**: L2601, PP2601 and other futures prices rose slightly. The basis and price differences between contracts changed [5]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased significantly, and the trade - related inventory of PP also increased [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% [5]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of PVC increased [8]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased, but the external - purchase calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some decreasing [8]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory and social inventory increased [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed, and the cash flows also changed [9]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: The PX price and related spreads changed, with the PX basis decreasing significantly [9]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA price and basis changed, and the processing margin decreased [9]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG price and basis changed, and the inventory increased [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil and pure benzene changed, and the spreads also changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The styrene price and related spreads changed, and the cash flow improved [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [10]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries changed, with some decreasing [10].

Report Summary for Polyolefins 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The post - holiday inventory pressure of polyolefins remains significant. The supply side has long - term supply pressure, and the demand side lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited. PE's supply pressure is prominent due to increased domestic production and overseas destocking. PP's valuation has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of devices and new device production pressure in October [2]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined, with L2601 down 0.93%, L2509 down 1.05%, PP2601 down 1.36%, and PP2509 down 0.98%. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 10.23%, while the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 47.17%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as the 0.31% increase in East China PP fiber spot and the 0.86% decrease in North China LDPE film material spot [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit not clearly stated), and social inventory increased by 4.02% to 54.6 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 (unit not clearly stated) [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.26% to 83.9%, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.52% to 44.4%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.5% to 77.7%, and powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3% [2]. Report Summary for Benzene - Styrene 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of pure benzene is expected to be loose in October, and the price driver is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to remain high, and the price is still under pressure. For pure benzene, BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. For styrene, the rebound of EB11 price should be treated as short - selling [5]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.5%, and CFR China benzene decreased by 2.1%. The EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 30.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.1% to 9.00 million tons, and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7% to 19.65 million tons [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 80.1%, and the domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 73.2% [5]. Report Summary for Methanol 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The methanol market has a mixed situation of long and short factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between real - time pressure and future expectations. Attention should be paid to the supply reduction expectation caused by overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as the operation of overseas devices and the situation of Iranian ship sanctions [6]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, MA2601 decreased by 2.90%, and MA2605 decreased by 2.29%. The MA15 spread increased by 116.67%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 72.22% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94 (unit not clearly stated), port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3 (unit not clearly stated) [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.01% to 78%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 4.63% to 86.28% [6]. Report Summary for Polyester Industry Chain 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the polyester industry chain, PX is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and short - term PX is in weak shock. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and the price is weak. Short - fiber prices are under pressure, and bottle chips are likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel [8]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the polyester industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 1.5%, and POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The coal - based MEG operating rate increased from 74.4% to 78.8%, and the Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.4% to 79.9% [8]. - **Inventory and Forecast**: MEG port inventory increased by 6.7% to 54.1 million tons, and the expected arrival of MEG increased by 27.5% to 10.2 million tons [8]. Report Summary for PVC and Caustic Soda 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in the short - term but has long - term demand support. PVC production pressure has slightly eased, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term disk is expected to continue to be under pressure [9]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of some PVC and caustic soda products declined. For example, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.7%, and the 50% liquid caustic soda converted price in Shandong decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.6% to 88.2%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 6.2% to 80.8%. The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased, such as the 18.8% decrease in the开工 rate of Longzhong sample profiles [9]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 20.5% to 38.4 million tons, and the total PVC social inventory increased by 4.2% to 55.7 million tons [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the rubber industry [1][2][7] Core Viewpoints - The market was volatile this week, and prices softened again during the Friday night session. There is a risk of a new trade war between China and the US, and it is expected that prices will open lower on Monday. Given the intensified macro risks, investors are advised to wait and see [2][3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - RU2601 had an opening price of 15,180, a high of 15,480, a low of 15,150, and a closing price of 15,315, with a gain of 1.9%. NR2511 opened at 12,200, reached a high of 12,520, a low of 12,200, and closed at 12,350, up 2.07%. BR2511 opened at 1,1145, had a high of 1,1335, a low of 1,1120, and closed at 1,1220, up 1.08%. During the holiday, the overseas market was relatively flat with a price rebound, but due to the risk of a new China-US trade war over the weekend, rubber prices fell close to the previous low [3] 2. Spot Market Review - The price of 2023 state-owned full latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,130 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton from before the holiday. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from before the holiday [4] 3. Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 3,729 tons to 180,630 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 5,420 tons to 144,390 tons [5] 4. Market Structure - The basis weakened this week as futures prices rose while spot prices fell [6] 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market was volatile this week, and prices softened again during the Friday night session. Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends this week, with smoked sheet and cup lump prices rising and latex prices falling. Tire enterprise operating rates remained low due to the holiday, and among tire enterprise inventories, semi-steel tire inventories decreased while all-steel tire inventories remained unchanged. Given the flat overseas market performance during the holiday and the incomplete recovery of the natural rubber fundamentals due to the holiday, along with the risk of a new China-US trade war, investors are advised to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is characterized by strong wait - and - see attitudes, with prices experiencing wide - range fluctuations. Steel procurement is expected to continue, and the steel procurement price is likely to decline, leading to a short - term weak market consolidation [1][3]. 3. Key Points from Different Sections Macro and Industry News - On October 9, 2025, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased, with the 72 FOB price ranging from 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton and the 75 FOB price from 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton. The northern and southern quotes of silicon - manganese 6517 were 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton and 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - In September 2025, the electricity price in Qinghai settled between 0.34 - 0.39 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 1 - 4 cents. After the holiday, steel procurement will continue, and the steel procurement price is expected to decline [1][3]. - According to South African trade statistics, in August 2025, the manganese ore export volume was 2408100 tons, a 16.27% month - on - month decrease and an 8.5% year - on - year increase. The export volume to China was 1774400 tons, an 8.82% month - on - month decrease and a 4.99% year - on - year increase [3]. - A Fujian group's silicon - manganese purchase prices in different regions decreased, with purchase volumes ranging from 400 - 800 tons [3]. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: For ferrosilicon 2511, the closing price was 5472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2601, it was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan. For manganese - silicon 2511, the closing price was 5768 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; for manganese - silicon 2601, it was also 5768 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The ferrosilicon spot price was 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Differences**: The ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the manganese - silicon (spot - 01 futures) was - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity for ferrosilicon is 0, and for silicomanganese is also 0, indicating a neutral market trend [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a positive investment rating for tin, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively bullish outlook [5]. 2) Core Viewpoint - The price of tin is accelerating upward [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 287,090 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.75%, and the night - session closing price was 287,400 yuan, with a night - session increase of 0.82%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 36,820 dollars, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared to the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased slightly and the open interest increased [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,851 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin was 2,390 tons, a decrease of 115 tons from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284,200 yuan, an increase of 7,000 yuan from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 283,600 yuan, an increase of 12,500 yuan from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 57 dollars, an increase of 8 dollars from the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 7,000 yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of 63A and 60A solder bars also increased [2]. Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce issued four announcements regarding export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, and super - hard materials. - The US government shutdown remains unresolved, with the Senate rejecting the appropriation bill seven times. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release September CPI data during the government shutdown. - The US provided 20 billion dollars in financial support to Argentina, and the peso rose. - China's National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to regulate price competition. - The Israeli government approved a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. - Microsoft predicts that the shortage of data center supply will continue until 2026. - Altman said that OpenAI will have more major deals after those with Nvidia, Oracle, and AMD [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face pressure to fall back and seek support at 4300 ringgit, with a chance of rebounding later. Domestic palm oil futures may also decline, with an expected correction to the 8800 - 9000 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have little change. The seasonal supply pressure from the US soybean harvest drags down the market. In China, post - holiday demand will weaken, and supply may increase, resulting in a short - term oversupply situation [1]. 2. Pork - In the short - term, the supply and demand of the pork market both increase, with chaotic spot quotes and larger declines in some areas. In the medium - term, demand recovers slowly, and supply is clearly recovering, with weak demand absorption. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, following the spot price with small fluctuations [3]. 3. Corn - In the short - term, the supply of new corn in the market is increasing. The price in the northeast is weak, and the price in the north China is under pressure. The demand side has a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. 4. Meal - US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The basis of domestic meal is supported before the festival. The purchase of Argentine soybeans eases the supply gap to some extent. The near - month increase of soybean meal is weak, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken in the short - term [8]. 5. Sugar - In the short - term, the international raw sugar price is dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. New sugar in China will be on the market soon, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. 6. Cotton - The supply side has a large hedging pressure after the new cotton is purchased. The demand side has low confidence in the peak season, and the demand is less than in previous years. The domestic cotton price may be under pressure in the short - to - medium term [11]. 7. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. With the approaching of the double festivals, the demand for eggs may increase. Egg prices are expected to oscillate in a bottom - level range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 26 was 8470 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from September 25. The futures price of Y2601 was 8162 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 was 308 yuan, up 60 yuan or 24.19% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on September 26 was 9230 yuan, up 60 yuan or 0.65%. The futures price of P2601 was 9236 yuan, up 14 yuan or 0.15%. The basis of P2601 was - 6 yuan, up 46 yuan or 88.46% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on September 26 was 10240 yuan, up 200 yuan or 1.99%. The futures price of OI601 was 10162 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.20%. The basis of OI601 was 78 yuan, up 180 yuan or 176.47% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - **Inter - month spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil on September 28 was 236 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 9.92% from September 26; that of palm oil was 184 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 4.17%; that of rapeseed oil was 520 yuan, up 36 yuan or 7.44% [1]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 760 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 4.11%; the 2601 spread was - 1126 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1770 yuan, unchanged; the 2601 spread was 2000 yuan, up 50 yuan or 2.56% [1]. 2. Pork - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract basis was - 45 yuan, up 90 yuan or 66.67%. The price of the live hog 2511 contract was 12575 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or - 0.87%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13100 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan or - 1.58% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan was 12530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that in Shandong was 12840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143630, down 11434 or - 7.37%. The weekly white - strip price was 0 yuan, down 19.81 yuan or - 100.00% [3]. 3. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2178 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.60%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 1.30%. The basis was 102 yuan, down 43 yuan or - 29.66% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.24%. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or - 6.98% [5]. 4. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2937 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 3 yuan, unchanged [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2510 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2405 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 105 yuan, unchanged [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or - 0.13%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.22% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The Nanning basis was 338 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.68%; the Kunming basis was 368 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.37% [10]. 6. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 0.96%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan or - 0.92% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14955 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.27%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1550 yuan, up 90 yuan or 6.16% [11]. 7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 3036 yuan/500KG, down 40 yuan or - 1.30%. The price of the 10 contract was 2940 yuan/500KG, down 41 yuan or - 1.38% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan or - 3.76%. The basis was 492 yuan/500KG, down 37 yuan or - 6.98% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly provides daily data on iron ore including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, and more. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - DCE01: Today's price is 808.5, up 1.0 from yesterday; DCE05 is 786.0, unchanged; DCE09 is 766.0, up 2.0 [2] - Inter - contract spreads: I01 - I05 is 22.5, up 1.0; I05 - I09 is 20.0, down 2.0; I09 - I01 is - 42.5, up 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - Various iron ore spot prices increased compared to the previous day. For example, PB powder (60.8%) rose from 780 to 786, Newman powder from 789 to 796, etc. [2] Basis - The basis of different iron ore varieties to different contracts is provided. For the optimal delivery product (Roy Hill powder), the 01 - contract basis is 34, 05 - contract basis is 55, and 09 - contract basis is 77 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 128 to 129 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the import profit of Carajás fines decreased from 18 to 3 [2] Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price increased from 105.2 to 106.6, the 65% price remained unchanged at 120.8, and the 58% price increased from 93.3 to 94.6 [2] 内外盘美金价差 - The spreads between SGX and DCE contracts increased. For example, SGX main - DCE01 increased from 7.2 to 7.5 [2]