Core Viewpoint - The final productivity in the United States for the first quarter decreased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, matching the forecast of a 0.8% decline [1] Group 1 - The U.S. first quarter productivity final value shows a decline of 0.8% [1]

Core Insights - The former Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masaaki Shirakawa, highlighted that Japan's declining population and aging demographic are significant challenges that reduce productivity, which is a critical issue for Japan [2][3] - Shirakawa emphasized that the most important factor for living standards is per capita GDP, which is determined by productivity, rather than the commonly held belief that Japan's low growth is primarily due to deflation [2] Summary by Relevant Categories Impact of Demographic Changes on Productivity - Aging populations lead to a shift in consumption preferences towards healthcare rather than education, resulting in a decline in productivity growth [2] - An aging society may hinder the acceptance of new technologies, which are essential for enhancing productivity [2] - In economies with declining populations, overall productivity tends to slow down due to the increased difficulty in reallocating resources across different regions [2] - A decrease in population size results in a smaller future talent pool, which correlates positively with the number of innovators, thereby slowing down the pace of innovation [2] Lessons for China - China has the advantage of observing Japan's experiences in dealing with demographic challenges and can learn from these insights [3] - The critical factor for economic growth is the ability to rapidly reallocate resources to enhance productivity; failure to do so may lead to economic decline [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook anticipates that the trade policies and related uncertainties of the Trump administration will dampen productivity growth in the short term, potentially leading the Fed to maintain policy interest rates unchanged for a longer period [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - A decline in productivity and a slowdown in potential economic growth will likely increase inflationary pressures [1] - Lower productivity, under unchanged conditions, may lead to support for keeping interest rates elevated for an extended duration [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Uncertainty regarding the final levels and duration of tariffs may reduce business investment, thereby impacting productivity [1] - If protectionist trade policies favor less efficient companies or disrupt supply chains, productivity could also be adversely affected [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Artificial intelligence has the potential to enhance U.S. productivity in the coming years, potentially offsetting the negative impacts of trade policies [1]

智通财经5月10日电，美联储COOK表示，关税政策可能会降低生产率，限制潜在产出，增加通胀压 力。生产率较低的经济可能需要更高的利率来遏制通货膨胀。 ...

智通财经5月8日电，美国第一季度生产率初值环比下降0.8%，预估下降0.8%。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：大学和科研资金的削减正在某些城市造成重大影响，可能会对生产率产生长期影 响。 ...