| MOUTAL | 茅台飞天 | | 2025年 (公众号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | | 规格 | 昨日行情 | | 6 25年飞天(原) | | 53度/500ml | 1520 | | 砂 25年で天(散) | | 53度/500ml | 1515 | 回顾2025年以来的市场走势，飞天茅台零售价格呈现出单边下行态势。6月11日散瓶批发价首次跌破2000元心理关口后，降价通道正式开启：6月22日跌至 1900元以下，6月25日再破1800元，虽7月7日短暂反弹至1880元，但8月29日再度失守1800元，10月底跌破1700元，11月末跌破1600元。 本轮价格下跌中，电商平台的表现尤为引人注目。11月初，随着各大电商平台启动促销活动，部分平台的53度飞天茅台补贴后价格已跌破1600元/瓶，甚至 出现低于市场批发价的情况。 拼多多的飞天茅台"团拼价"更是一度跌至1399元/瓶，引发市场广泛关注。面对这一价格，知名投资人、茅台的长期支持者段永平在回应时也直言："我看不 懂为什么能卖这个价钱，估计是他们补贴的吧，就当广告费了？" 对于飞天茅台价格的持续下滑，知趣 ...

市场消息称，2026年五粮液将对核心单品52度第八代五粮液调整价格——在1019元/瓶的出厂价基础上 给予折扣，经销商开票直降119元，为900元/瓶；若叠加费用支持、返利等政策，该单品经销商端实际 成本甚至可低至800多元/瓶。针对此消息，五粮液方面明确回应，第八代五粮液1019元/瓶的出厂价并 未调整，市场所传"降价"，实为公司相关补贴支持政策落地后的价格变化。 ...

Core Insights - The retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands have shown a slight decline, indicating a market adjustment phase following the Double Eleven shopping festival and platform governance changes [1][6] - The overall average price for a packaged set of ten major liquor products is 9,246 yuan, down by 8 yuan from the previous day [1] - Notable price movements include an increase in the price of Qinghua Lang by 3 yuan per bottle, while Guizhou Moutai and other brands experienced minor declines [1][3] Price Movements - Guizhou Moutai (Feitian) price is 1,839 yuan per bottle, down by 1 yuan [3] - Guizhou Moutai (Jingpin) price is 2,384 yuan per bottle, down by 3 yuan [3] - Wuliangye (Pu 58) price is 861 yuan per bottle, up by 1 yuan [3] - Qinghua Fen 20 price is 393 yuan per bottle, up by 2 yuan [3] - Gujing Gong (Gu 20) price is 510 yuan per bottle, down by 5 yuan [4] - Xijiu Junpin price is 666 yuan per bottle, down by 570 yuan [4] - Qinghua Lang price is 710 yuan per bottle, up by 3 yuan [4] - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun price is 412 yuan per bottle, up by 2 yuan [4] Market Trends - The market is currently in a narrow consolidation phase, reflecting adjustments in supply and demand dynamics [1] - The data collection for liquor prices is sourced from approximately 200 points across major regions, ensuring a comprehensive representation of market conditions [6][7] - The price table aims to provide an objective and traceable overview of the Chinese liquor market, promoting sustainable industry development [6]

Core Insights - Moutai Airport has increased the lottery winning rate for purchasing original-priced Flying Moutai for the fourth time in two months, indicating a shift in market strategy to stimulate sales [2][5] Group 1: Lottery Rate Adjustments - On August 19, the lottery winning rate was set at 60%, allowing winners to purchase one bottle of Flying Moutai priced at 1499 yuan [2] - The rate was raised to 70% on August 31, with winners allowed to buy one bottle [2] - As of October 11, the winning rates were further increased to 70%, 80%, and 90%, with winners permitted to buy two bottles [2] - On October 22, the rates remained at 80% and 90%, still allowing the purchase of two bottles [2] Group 2: Market Price Trends - The market price of Flying Moutai has been declining, starting from 2290 yuan per bottle during the Spring Festival to 1790 yuan by early September [5] - Ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, prices saw a slight increase, rising from around 1780 yuan to 1820 yuan, but still below last year's price of 2300 yuan [5] - Post-holiday, the market price stabilized around 1780 yuan [5] - Current market prices for 500ml Flying Moutai range from 1735 yuan to 1825 yuan, depending on packaging [5] Group 3: Company Response - Guizhou Moutai's board member Wang Li addressed the price drop issue during the 2025 semi-annual performance meeting, citing industry cycle adjustments and changes in consumer trends as contributing factors [5][7] - The company is optimizing market strategies, focusing on precise product placement, and maintaining channel stability to ensure overall market balance [7]

Core Insights - The overall retail price of liquor in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has shown a downward trend, with significant price adjustments across various brands and categories [2][3][16] - The high-end liquor market, particularly represented by products like Moutai, has experienced notable price declines, reflecting broader industry challenges such as high inventory levels and weak consumer demand [4][16][20] Price Trends - The average retail price of Moutai has decreased from approximately 2,624 yuan at the beginning of the year to around 2,368 yuan, marking a decline of 256 yuan [4][10] - Among the 21 monitored products, 15 have seen a decrease in average prices, while only 4 products experienced slight increases [3][10] - The price of the eighth generation of Wuliangye has dropped by 47 yuan, while the average price of Qinghua Lang has decreased by 93 yuan [5][10] Market Dynamics - The white liquor market is undergoing a significant adjustment phase, with many companies facing high inventory pressures and a competitive landscape that has intensified [2][16] - The average inventory turnover days for the industry have reached 900 days, with 60% of companies experiencing price inversion, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range [17][18] Consumer Behavior - Despite the overall price decline, the demand for mid to low-end liquor remains relatively stable, with products priced below 500 yuan showing less volatility [19][20] - The market is witnessing a shift towards high-cost performance products, as consumers become more price-sensitive [18][19] Regional Insights - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 monitored products have seen price declines, with Moutai's price dropping from 2,648 yuan to 2,305 yuan [9][10] - Shenzhen's market has shown varied price performance, but the overall trend is downward, with significant drops in the prices of several key products [11][12] - East Guangdong's market has experienced price fluctuations driven by seasonal demand and promotional activities, with Moutai's price dropping to 2,299 yuan during peak sales periods [13][14] Future Outlook - The "Bay Area Liquor Price" index will undergo optimization to better reflect market conditions, including the addition of new retail channels and the inclusion of more representative products [22][23] - The industry is expected to continue facing challenges related to pricing strategies, inventory management, and consumer demand dynamics [16][20]

Core Insights - The white liquor market has experienced a collective price decline since 2025, affecting both high-end and mid-range products due to a cooling consumption environment and high inventory pressures [1][15][16] - The South China region, particularly the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, has shown significant price differentiation and a notable decline in retail prices for various white liquor products [1][2][3] Market Performance - More than half of the monitored products have seen a price drop since the beginning of the year, with high-end products being the most affected [2][15] - Among 21 monitored products, 15 experienced a decline in average retail prices, with only 4 showing slight increases and 2 remaining stable [2][3] - The most significant price drop was observed in Feitian Moutai, which fell from approximately 2624 CNY to 2368 CNY, a decrease of 256 CNY [2][3] Price Trends by Product - Feitian Moutai's market price has dropped significantly, with current prices ranging from 2100 to 2400 CNY per bottle, marking a decline of over 15% from its peak [3][15] - Other products in the thousand CNY price range, such as the eighth generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, also saw price reductions, with the eighth generation Wuliangye dropping by 110 CNY [10][15] - Mid-range products like Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Guotai Guobiao also experienced price declines, although to a lesser extent compared to high-end products [4][10] Regional Price Dynamics - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 products saw price declines, with Feitian Moutai dropping from 2648 CNY to 2305 CNY [7][8] - Shenzhen's market showed a downward trend in retail prices, although some products had inflated prices due to high-end retail channels [9][10] - Dongguan's market exhibited significant price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and promotional activities, with Feitian Moutai's price dropping to 2299 CNY during peak sales periods [12][13] Inventory and Market Conditions - The white liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with high inventory levels leading to price pressures across all product categories [15][16] - Approximately 60% of companies are facing price inversion, particularly in the 800 to 1500 CNY price range, which is experiencing the most significant downward pressure [15][16] - The average inventory turnover days have increased to 900 days, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [15][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing challenges as companies balance between maintaining prices and expanding market share [17][18] - The introduction of new statistical methods and the inclusion of additional cities like Foshan in price monitoring may provide a clearer picture of market dynamics moving forward [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has experienced significant fluctuations, with export versions dropping to as low as 1179 yuan, raising concerns about the overall health of the high-end liquor market and the potential for further declines in prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of 500ml 53-degree export version Moutai has fallen to 1179 yuan, while the non-export version is priced at 1430 yuan [1]. - On platforms like Pinduoduo and Taobao, promotional prices for two bottles of export version Moutai are around 3094 yuan (1547 yuan per bottle) [1]. - Since the 618 mid-year promotion, the price of non-export Moutai has been rising, while export prices have been declining, breaching the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The overall consumption situation for liquor is not optimistic, with a report indicating that the average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, and inventory levels up by 25% [3]. - Price inversion phenomena are affecting 60% of companies, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range [3]. Group 3: Impact on Distributors - Distributors face significant challenges as the continuous price drop of Moutai could lead to substantial losses, especially since their procurement costs are around 1800 yuan per bottle [4]. - There is a risk of panic selling among distributors, reminiscent of the price drop from 2000 yuan to 800 yuan during the 2012-2014 adjustment period [4]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices reflects a broader trend where financial attributes are diminishing, returning to consumer-driven demand [6]. - The high terminal prices in the past were largely due to speculation, and the current price drop is seen as a correction of inflated values [6]. - The industry is questioning when this adjustment will reach its bottom and whether Moutai should intervene to stabilize the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward price trend, driven by changes in consumer demand and market dynamics, as indicated by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics [1][5]. Price Trends - National data shows that liquor prices have decreased by 1.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month as of June 2025, with an overall decline of 2.0% in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The price of premium liquor brands, such as Feitian Moutai, has dropped from over 3000 yuan to below 2000 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in market premium [4]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers moving away from traditional high-alcohol liquor towards lower-alcohol options and craft beers, leading to a contraction in the white liquor market [5][6]. - The demand for high-priced liquor for business banquets and gifts has decreased, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises facing financial pressures [5][6]. Supply and Inventory Issues - The white liquor industry is facing overproduction and high inventory levels, with a reported production decline of 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - Companies are resorting to price reductions as a means to clear excess inventory, with distributors eager to recover funds through lower pricing strategies [6]. Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales has intensified price competition and increased price transparency, reducing the ability of traditional channels to maintain high prices [6]. - The shift from "face consumption" to a more rational consumer mindset emphasizes value for money and quality, challenging the high-end liquor market's previous status as a social currency [6].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has been experiencing fluctuations, with recent increases in wholesale prices, indicating a potential market adjustment and the company's intervention to stabilize prices [1][5][10]. Price Trends - As of June 28, 2025, the wholesale price for 25-year Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) is reported at 1920 RMB per bottle, an increase of 50 RMB from the previous day [1][2]. - The prices for various Moutai products have shown a general upward trend, with 24-year Feitian Moutai (original box) at 1920 RMB, and 23-year Feitian Moutai (original box) at 2010 RMB, both reflecting slight increases [1][2]. - However, some products, such as Xunfeng Feitian, have seen price declines, indicating a mixed market response [3]. Market Dynamics - The price adjustments are attributed to a combination of factors, including pressure on consumption, high inventory levels among distributors, and a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options [8][10]. - The company has been proactive in managing supply, aiming for a 9% growth target while addressing market imbalances caused by seasonal demand fluctuations [10][11]. Company Strategy - Moutai has engaged in discussions with major e-commerce platforms like JD and Alibaba to enhance brand presence and manage pricing strategies effectively [6][10]. - The company is focusing on maintaining market order by limiting supply to certain channels and increasing market surveillance to prevent price violations [5][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current price adjustments may reshape the liquor consumption landscape, influenced by broader economic and demographic trends [8][10]. - Moutai's strategic measures, including inventory management and targeted marketing, are expected to support its market position and potentially lead to further share expansion [11].