Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the environmental protection industry, with a specific emphasis on carbon reduction efforts and upcoming earnings reports from various companies in the sector [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Earnings Reports**: By January 30, 2026, 61 environmental companies have released their earnings forecasts for 2025. Among these: - 14 companies are expected to see significant positive growth in earnings - 4 companies are projected to experience a decline in earnings - 8 companies are anticipated to turn losses into profits - 35 companies are expected to report losses [1][2]. - **Notable Performers**: - **Wanyi Technology**: Expected net profit for 2025 is between 42 million to 62 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 191.52% to 330.34% - **Gao Neng Environment**: Projected net profit for 2025 is between 750 million to 900 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.66% to 86.79% - **Yuehai Investment**: Expected net profit growth of 43% for 2025, with an estimated profit close to 4.5 billion HKD based on 2024 figures [2]. - **Carbon Reduction Initiatives**: The year 2026 marks a significant shift towards stringent carbon emission controls, with local governments facing formal evaluations of carbon neutrality targets for the first time [2]. - **EU Carbon Tariff**: The EU has implemented a carbon tariff as of January 1, 2026, which is expected to increase the cost of exports from China to the EU. Exporting companies can mitigate these costs through the use of green energy and recycled resources [3]. Additional Important Insights - **Green Energy Demand**: The demand for green energy in global transportation is increasing, particularly with the EU's plan to mandate a rise in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) usage from 2% to a long-term target of 70% by 2025 [3]. - **UCO Pricing**: The price of Used Cooking Oil (UCO) has reached 1,075 USD per ton, marking a 9.1% increase since early 2025. This price increase is expected to enhance profit margins for companies involved in the processing of waste oils [3]. - **Companies to Watch**: - **Recycling and Resource Recovery**: Companies like Yingke Recycling, Langkun Technology, and Dadi Ocean are highlighted for their roles in the recycling sector - **Green Steam and Methanol**: Companies such as Huanlan Environment and China Tianying are noted for their contributions to green steam and methanol production [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the environmental protection industry [2] Core Insights - The environmental protection industry is entering a significant performance period, with expectations for intensified carbon reduction efforts [1] - The year 2026 marks the transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, with substantial progress anticipated in carbon reduction initiatives [5] - The report highlights the importance of companies focusing on performance and increased dividends, with 61 environmental companies expected to release their 2025 performance forecasts [5] Summary by Sections 2025 Performance Forecast - 61 environmental companies have released performance forecasts, with 14 companies expecting significant positive growth, 4 companies experiencing declines, 8 companies turning losses into profits, and 35 companies reporting losses [12] - Notable performers include: - Anhui Instrument Technology: Expected net profit of 42-62 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 191.52%-330.34% [12] - GaoNeng Environment: Expected net profit of 750-900 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 55.66%-86.79% [12] - Yuehai Investment: Expected net profit growth of 43%, reaching nearly 4.5 billion HKD [13] Biodiesel and UCO Market - The average export price of UCO is expected to reach 7,742 CNY/ton in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [19] - UCO export volume remains high, with a total of 2.7558 million tons exported in 2025, despite a 17% decline in biodiesel exports [19] - The price of UCO has shown a consistent upward trend, with the latest price reaching 1,075 USD/ton, a 9.1% increase from early 2025 [29] Policy and Market Tracking - The report tracks significant developments in carbon reduction policies, including the establishment of a dual control system for carbon emissions and energy consumption [33] - The carbon trading market has seen a total transaction volume of 862,100 tons, with a closing price of 79.00 CNY/ton as of January 30, 2026 [36] - Recent policies emphasize energy efficiency and carbon reduction in public institutions, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

Group 1 - The Chinese steel industry is set to complete its ultra-low emission transformation project by the end of 2025, with a total investment exceeding 370 billion yuan, achieving over 80% of crude steel capacity meeting ultra-low emission standards [2] - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Steel Extreme Energy Efficiency Benchmarking" initiated at the end of 2022 involves 143 enterprises with a total steel capacity of 750 million tons [2] - By 2025, companies like Zhanjiang Steel and Shagang will implement energy efficiency measures, resulting in a reduction of energy consumption in blast furnaces and converters by 2.5% and 12.2% respectively compared to 2023, saving 13.2 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 34 million tons, equivalent to the annual carbon absorption of approximately 3.1 billion trees [2] Group 2 - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is characterized by significant investment in the steel industry, with a total investment of 1.27 trillion yuan completed for ultra-low emissions and capacity replacement steel enterprises [2] - The industry aims to accelerate the transition to a fully green transformation, promoting the completion of ultra-low emission modifications for remaining steel production capacity and the application of advanced pollution reduction and carbon reduction technologies [3] - The industry will guide enterprises in establishing carbon asset management systems and enhance their capabilities to participate in carbon markets, collaborating with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment on quota distribution and accounting methods [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the carbon neutrality sector, emphasizing the emergence of multi-layered and long-term investment opportunities driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and the deepening of the national carbon market [3][11]. Core Insights - The transition towards a green economy in China has moved from conceptual advocacy to a substantive phase, creating a systematic investment landscape centered around four dimensions: energy system restructuring, industrial green premium, carbon reduction technology expansion, and the rise of supporting services [3][11]. Summary by Sections Carbon Peak and Neutrality Policy Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" are critical periods for achieving carbon peak goals, with a comprehensive "1+N" policy system established to guide the transition [9][18]. - The energy consumption dual control is transitioning to carbon emission dual control, with a three-phase approach leading to comprehensive implementation by 2025 [9][22]. Market-Based Emission Reduction Mechanism - The carbon market's core mechanism is to guide carbon pricing through quotas, CCER, and green certificates [10][31]. - By the end of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the national carbon market is expected to reach 860 million tons, with a transaction value of 58.12 billion yuan and an average price of 67.6 yuan per ton [42][43]. Investment Strategy: Four-Dimensional Industrial Opportunities - The dual carbon process will create multi-layered, long-cycle investment opportunities across four dimensions: 1. **Energy System Restructuring**: Focus on new power systems, emphasizing photovoltaic and wind power technology advancements, and integrating non-electric applications like green hydrogen [11]. 2. **Industrial Green Premium**: The internalization of carbon costs is reshaping high-energy-consuming industries, providing cost advantages to companies with low-carbon processes [11]. 3. **Carbon Reduction Technology Breakthroughs**: Technologies in hard-to-abate sectors are entering a phase of scale, with significant demand for energy-saving equipment and recycling technologies [11]. 4. **Emergence of Carbon Management Services**: The assetization of carbon is driving demand for carbon monitoring, accounting platforms, and professional services to help companies manage risks and optimize assets [11].

截至1月29日14:10，石化ETF（159731）跌0.38%，持仓股中三棵树、浙江龙盛、荣盛石化等个股领 张。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续16个交易日获得资金净流入，累计"吸金"8.38亿元。石化 ETF最新份额达11.06亿份，最新规模11.66亿元，均创成立以来新高。 工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委等五部门近日联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》。 自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电器、轻 工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步拓展至钢铁、有色金属、石 化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。"十五五"碳排放双控下化工行业绿 色转型加速，利好行业能效领跑龙头。 方正证券认为，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速落后产能 出清，长期利好行业能效领跑龙头。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，受基础化工和 ...

1月28日，化工板块攻势不减。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后迅速拉 升，而后持续高位震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.2%，截至收盘，涨2.48%，收盘价续创2022年7 月以来新高。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）午后频现溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.42%，反 映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，纯碱、氨纶、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，和邦生物、浙江龙盛双双涨停， 卫星化学、华峰化学飙涨超8%，鲁西化工、桐昆股份、宝丰能源等亦涨幅居前。 消息面上，近日，工业和信息化部、国家发改委等五部门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导 意见》。自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电 器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步扩展至钢铁、有色金 属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。 方正证券指出，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速 ...

专家交流：双碳政策有哪些新变化，对建材化工行业有什 么影响？20260126 摘要 中国正从能耗双控转向碳排放双控，要求高碳项目进行环评和探评，并 建立地方碳排放考核机制，将国家达峰目标分解至各省市，重点管控电 力、钢铁、有色、建材、石化化工等八大行业。 全国碳市场已纳入 3,770 家企业，预计 2027 年将达 8,000 家，覆盖电 力、水泥、钢铁、铝等行业，未来还将纳入化工、石化、有色金属等， 这些企业需严格遵守国家规定的碳排放配额。 2027 年全国碳市场预计纳入约 8,000 家企业，其排放量占全国总排放 量的 80%左右，其余企业可通过自愿减排市场（CCR）参与，通过减排 行动获取收益。 钢铁行业在 2024-2026 年为适应过渡期，2027 年开始正常发放配额， 初期配额宽松，惩戒幅度不超过 3%，后期将收紧配额，化工行业预计 2027 年进入碳市场，初期免费发放配额，未来或过渡到有偿分配。 国内碳市场价格波动，目前约 81 元/吨，高峰时超 100 元，未来 2-3 年 预计波动范围为 80-150 元/吨，各行业可据此测算成本压力，如合成氨 等化工产品每吨成本增加几十至一两百元。 Q&A ...

| 该指数由中证800指数样本股 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 0. 8% | 1. 6倍 | | 90% | | | | 化工、石油石化行业占比超 | | | | 中的石化产业股票组成,基础 | | | 1月26日，石油石化股集体走强，中国海油涨超6%，中国石油5%，中国石化、云天化涨超3%。截至收盘，中证石化产业指数上涨0.8%、实现六连涨， 中证稀土产业指数上涨0.6%。 市场分析认为，"十五五"碳排放双控力度增强，对于化工行业而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约束；另一方 面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速落后产能出清，长期利好行业能效领跑龙头。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

1月26日，石油石化股集体走强，中国海油涨超6%，中国石油5%，中国石化、云天化涨超3%。截至收盘，中证石化产业指数上涨0.8%、实现六连涨，中证 稀土产业指数上涨0.6%。 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数市净率 | i | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 发 | | 0. 8% | 1.6倍 | | 市场分析认为，"十五五"碳排放双控力度增强，对于化工行业而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约束；另一方面， 随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速落后产能出清，长期利好行业能效领跑龙头。 ...