摩根大通CEO戴蒙：如果出现经济下行，信贷压力将超出预期。如果失业率上升，消费者端可能会面临 更大的压力。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In China, the economy turned downward in April due to tariff impacts, but the decline slowed in May. With the agreement reached in the Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the United States, economic confidence has recovered. The government has ample resources and policies are expected to be implemented intensively in June [1][10][15]. - Abroad, tariff and debt issues continue to disrupt the market. Attention should be paid to whether the tariffs based on IEEPA can remain in effect. Short - term debt is not a problem, but the pressure lies in the medium - and long - term [2][27][31]. - For major asset classes, stocks will fluctuate within a range, bonds will fluctuate while waiting for an opportunity for interest rates to decline, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.36, and gold will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3][32][39] Summaries by Directory I. Domestic: Waiting for Policy Acceleration (1) April economic downturn, slower decline in May - Most economic data showed a decline in April. In May, the manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, but was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that the economy was still in a downward trend, but at a slower pace. From the perspective of leading monetary indicators, the economy is still at the bottom [1][10][11]. (2) The government has more measures in reserve - Fiscal spending is tilted towards people's livelihoods. The expenditure of public finance and government - managed funds is at a high level in history, but the expenditure on infrastructure has decreased. There are still large balances of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to be issued, and government deposits are much higher than in previous years. Most policies to stabilize employment and the economy are expected to be implemented by the end of June [15][16][23]. II. Abroad: Tariffs and Debt (1) Focus on whether the tariffs based on IEEPA can remain in effect - Tariff disruptions continue, but their impact on the market is gradually weakening. The court's decision on the legality of Trump's tariff measures needs attention. If the appeal fails, Trump may try other ways to impose tariffs, which could have a long - term impact on the US economy [27][28][29]. (2) Short - term debt is not a problem - The US has a large short - term debt rolling pressure, but it is unlikely that short - term debt cannot be renewed. The Fed has the SRF tool. The medium - and long - term debt pressure is controllable in the near term, and the pressure lies in the medium - and long - term [31]. III. Outlook for Major Asset Classes (1) Stocks: Range - bound fluctuations - Due to the smooth Geneva economic and trade talks, the overall tariff situation has returned to that on April 5. The export - rush effect in May is expected to continue, but economic uncertainties are still large, and the macro - economy continues to face pressure. The stock market is likely to fluctuate within a range [32]. (2) Bonds: Fluctuating while waiting for an opportunity for interest rates to decline - A full - process interest rate cut has been implemented. Future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are likely. However, in the short term, the bond market is likely to remain volatile due to high capital interest rates, supply pressure, and potential deposit transfer issues [35]. (3) RMB exchange rate: Range - bound fluctuations - The weakening US dollar index drives the RMB to appreciate, but the appreciation is expected to be limited. The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.36 [39]. (4) Gold: Short - term range - bound fluctuations - Tariff and debt issues have pushed down the US dollar index and driven up the gold price. However, as these issues are not acute at present, gold is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short term [42].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds to enhance investment success [2] - Economic downturns make bonds more attractive due to expectations of monetary policy easing, which includes interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, leading to lower financing costs for bonds and increased demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offline retail sector is experiencing a significant decline, with many shops closing down due to changing consumer habits and high operational costs [2][11][19] Group 1: Market Conditions - A large number of offline shops are shutting down across various cities, with rental prices dropping by 30% to 50% [2][11] - The shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping is a primary factor driving the decline of physical stores [2][11] - The logistics industry in China is booming, with a 21% growth in express delivery volume last year, totaling 1.745 billion packages, surpassing the combined volume of Europe, the US, Japan, India, and Southeast Asia [6][7][8] Group 2: Cost Challenges - Physical stores face higher costs for rent, labor, and logistics, making their products more expensive than online alternatives [3][11] - Many landlords are unwilling to lower rents despite the economic downturn, leading to increased vacancies and further shop closures [12][13][19] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among e-commerce platforms like JD.com, Meituan, and Taobao is intensifying, particularly in the "flash purchase" market, which promises delivery within 30 minutes [10][19] - The retail sector is experiencing severe internal competition, especially in food and beverage, with many businesses resorting to unsustainable pricing strategies to attract customers [11][19] Group 4: Entrepreneurial Challenges - The current business environment has made it increasingly difficult for new entrepreneurs to succeed, with only about 10% of them expected to be profitable compared to 60% in the past [17][19] - Many entrepreneurs are finding that the financial burden of high rents outweighs the benefits of running a business, leading to a wave of closures [16][19]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about further economic deterioration have led U.S. private credit investors to sell assets at significant discounts, with some transactions occurring at half the asset's face value [1] Group 1: Discount Trading and Investor Behavior - Private credit market investors are selling fund shares at notable discounts, starting from 10% and dropping to as low as 50% [2] - The current sell-off is characterized as a proactive risk-hedging behavior by investors rather than a result of forced liquidations or severe liquidity crises [2] - There has been no significant deterioration in credit quality observed so far, but concerns about expanding discounts may arise as economic conditions worsen [2] Group 2: Credit Quality Concerns - The U.S. private credit market has rapidly expanded to a size of $1.6 trillion, raising concerns about asset quality during economic downturns due to a relatively lax regulatory environment [2] - Issues with "loose underwriting" in private credit loans could lead to high single-digit default rates for high-yield debt and potentially double-digit default rates for private credit [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategic Positioning - The current situation is viewed as more severe than during the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to higher inflation pressures that could amplify economic shocks [4] - The potential economic downturn is compared to the bursting of the internet bubble, with expectations of a similarly severe impact [4] - Oak Tree Capital is cautiously positioning itself in the credit market, maintaining liquidity to capitalize on larger investment opportunities as they arise [4]

2025.04. 29 本文字数：3780，阅读时长大约6分钟 导读 ：观察今年的广交会不难发现，传统制造业正在通过技术创新与品牌建设向价值链上游攀升，产品差异化成为 破局关键。 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 客流依然不少，但普遍对于价格更加敏感，这是今年广交会上给人留下的直观印象。 "今年来的客商报价大概比以前压低了30%以上。"一名来自广东的参展商这样告诉第一财经，这不仅 仅是因为来自新兴市场的客户更多了，也因为贸易战和经济下行叠加，竞争愈加激烈，让大家对于价 格的要求更加严苛。另一家来自浙江的参展商也对第一财经表示，以欧洲为主要市场的他们并未受到 美国关税的直接影响，但已能感受到，随着越来越多中国商品转战欧洲，这将让欧洲客户更大力度地 议价。 与此同时，"既要好价格，也要好品质"越来越成为全球客商的共识。 在印度经营着一家墨镜电商平台的29岁客商普拉奈（Pranay）是第一次来到中国。"在中国可以用中 等价格买到高品质。"他对第一财经表示，之前都是通过贸易商帮忙采购，今年第一次来到广交会"如 获至宝"，可以直接找到源头工厂下单，相较之前能够多赚40%左右，同样的采购价格可以获得质量 更高的产品。 在浙江外贸 ...

Core Insights - Traditional manufacturing is climbing up the value chain through technological innovation and brand building, with product differentiation becoming key to breaking through market challenges [1][16] - There is a noticeable increase in price sensitivity among customers, with quotes reportedly lowered by over 30% compared to previous years due to intensified competition and economic downturns [1][5] - Global customers are increasingly seeking both good prices and high quality, reflecting a shift in purchasing behavior [1] Industry Trends - The foreign trade market is experiencing changes, with small and micro enterprises facing both challenges and opportunities amid a tough environment [5][12] - Companies are diversifying their markets and optimizing supply chains to mitigate risks, with a focus on high-value products [16] - The demand for modular construction products is rising in various regions, driven by reconstruction needs and the growth of the tourism industry [12] Company Strategies - Companies are investing in factory expansions and advanced equipment to enhance production efficiency and quality [14][15] - There is a trend of companies shifting focus from traditional markets to emerging markets, with significant increases in orders from regions like Russia and the Middle East [12][17] - Effective cash flow management is becoming a core competitive advantage for companies navigating the complexities of the global trade environment [16] Market Dynamics - The structure of China's foreign trade market is evolving, with a significant increase in local collection accounts in emerging markets, reflecting a shift in trade dynamics [16] - Trade with traditional markets remains resilient, with notable growth in imports and exports with countries like Germany and the UK [17]