Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, indicating increased market confidence among major private equity firms [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Major private equity firms express positive expectations for the overall market direction in the second half of the year, highlighting two key trends: a recovery in market trading sentiment and increased differentiation among enterprises, leading to a focus on scarce growth assets [2] - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a new phase with international capital gradually entering, supported by strong competitiveness and resilience in Chinese manufacturing and trade [2] - The liquidity in both mainland and Hong Kong markets is abundant, with a notable divergence between short-term interest rates of the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar, suggesting limited downside risk for the market [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The current market environment is conducive to bottom-up stock selection, with a focus on high-quality companies that have shown resilience during economic cycles [4] - Investment strategies should consider the structural bull market atmosphere, with significant opportunities for sector rotation and mean reversion, emphasizing the importance of matching valuation with fundamentals [4][5] - The technology and innovation sectors are expected to experience increased internal differentiation, while sectors like renewable energy and traditional food and beverage companies may present mean reversion opportunities [5] Group 3: Specific Investment Opportunities - Major private equity firms are focusing on specific investment themes, including AI-driven entertainment platforms, advanced chip manufacturers, and companies with strong supply chain and brand capabilities [6][7] - Emerging growth assets remain a focal point, with a particular interest in sectors benefiting from technological iterations and brand upgrades, such as the AI industry chain and high-end manufacturing [8] - The potential for significant upside exists for leading companies with cyclical growth attributes, especially if the macroeconomic environment continues to improve [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations in yields, with a focus on whether the 10-year government bond yield can break through previous resistance levels, amid a backdrop of weak economic recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 2, the interbank bond market showed a downward trend in yields, with the 3-month government bond yield stable at 1.30%, the 2-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.36%, and the 10-year yield at 1.64% [2]. - The bond market remains stable despite seasonal liquidity changes, with experts expressing optimism about the potential for the 10-year yield to break previous resistance levels [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Seasonal liquidity is expected to ease in July, providing a foundation for a potential "bond bull" market, as July typically sees lower funding rates due to weaker credit demand and local government pressure [3]. - Insurance institutions may benefit from a potential reduction in preset interest rates, leading to increased premium income and a higher acceptance of long-term rates [3]. - The net supply of government bonds in the third quarter is projected to be high, with net financing estimated between 2.09 trillion to 2.63 trillion yuan, which could exert pressure on the bond market [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are still opportunities in the bond market, particularly with the influx of incremental funds from insurance and bank wealth management products [7]. - The ongoing "yield spread" enthusiasm since June is expected to continue, with significant declines in yields for various bond types [8]. - Institutions are advised to maintain a bullish outlook on the bond market, focusing on medium to long-term bonds as the market sentiment is likely to rise again in July [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

刘水表示，从市场趋势看，房地产市场仍处于波动调整过程中，预计下半年城市分化行情仍将延 续，"好城市+好房子"具备结构性机会，但市场全面止跌回稳仍需政策进一步发力。 编辑：幸骊莎 根据中指研究院数据，今年1-6月，20家代表房企销售额贡献前三城市分别为上海、北京和广州，销售 额贡献率分别为16.9%、10.6%和9.0%。上海销售额贡献率相较去年同期持续提升，增长4.5个百分点， 在TOP10城市中增幅最大；北京销售贡献率增长3.8个百分点至10.6%，增幅仅次于上海。杭州销售额贡 献率为7.9%，同比下降2个百分点，刘水认为，这主要是由于头部企业加大了在上海、北京等一线城市 的投资力度，其他重点城市销售额占比增减幅度未超过1个百分点，进一步体现了代表企业稳健的发展 策略。 根据中指研究院数据，一线城市首次改善类项目增长10.6个百分点，二线及三四线城市改善类与高端类 项目有所增长，产品结构趋于稳定，改善类产品依旧为市场主流。 新华财经北京7月1日（记者高婷）根据中指研究院发布的2025年上半年中国房地产企业销售业绩排行 榜，今年1-6月，TOP100房企销售总额为18364.1亿元，房企权益销售额为12812 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Group 1 - The current A-share market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally compared to the end of 2014 and early 2019, but a surprise rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, along with simultaneous easing by the People's Bank of China, could act as a catalyst for market sentiment [1] - Active funds are shifting from pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors to technology and finance, indicating a potential stagnation in dividend growth, with structural opportunities being a key topic during the mid-year reporting season [1] - The valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 will be driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital into the market [1] Group 2 - The rebound driven by risk appetite is currently well-developed, and a trend-driven market may need to wait until there are clear turning points in economic fundamentals, incremental policies, and liquidity [2] - The market's downside potential is relatively limited due to the ongoing functions of central financial stabilization funds, with expectations that the A-share index will remain within a wide fluctuation range in the third quarter [2] - Market styles are expected to continue rotating, with previously lagging high-growth sectors showing potential for catch-up [2]

Core Viewpoints - The current market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally, but unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China could act as catalysts for market sentiment [1] - Structural opportunities will be a key topic during the mid-year reporting season, while index opportunities may need to wait until late Q3 or Q4 [1] - The electrification process is accelerating globally, with a focus on the full industrial chain's monetization capabilities in the electrification and AI sectors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market changes indicate that there is no shortage of money, with trading volumes reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - The market is poised for potential upward movement, contingent on three triggers: attractive valuations, strong current and future fundamental expectations [2][3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile yet upward trend, supported by the influx of medium to long-term funds and favorable policies [7][11] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that have been underweighted by funds [5][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain market attention, particularly with the upcoming IPOs of tech companies and innovations in AI and military industries [1][6] - The focus on high-dividend assets and the technology sector, especially those related to AI capital expenditures, is expected to provide investment opportunities [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is currently experiencing a phase of structural improvement, but it is not yet at the level of a bull market [6][10] - The potential for a bull market is contingent on either a positive shift in earnings or policy direction by Q3 [10] - The overall economic recovery is expected to be driven by domestic consumption and export growth, with a cautious outlook on external risks [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of mature medical devices in China's healthcare system, highlighting the need for a new perspective on these products that are often overlooked despite their critical role in surgical efficiency, safety, and cost management [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The series aims to reassess products that are no longer considered "sexy" but are foundational to the Chinese medical system, focusing on their value, challenges, and potential [3][4]. Research Project - A long-term research project titled "Research on Mature Medical Device Tracks in China" has been initiated to systematically analyze mature products that are often taken for granted, revealing their true business logic and emerging structural opportunities [4][5]. Focus Product: Soft Tissue Ultrasound Knife - The first report in the series focuses on the soft tissue ultrasound knife, which is widely used in various minimally invasive surgeries and has transitioned from being dominated by imported brands to a rapidly growing domestic market [5][10]. - This product exemplifies a "mature but not yet concluded" category, having completed the transition from import to domestic production, with high penetration rates and essential demand in surgeries [5][10]. Key Insights from the White Paper - The white paper includes a comprehensive overview of over 20 major domestic and international manufacturers, detailing their certified products, technical features, and core strategies [8][11]. - It addresses critical questions such as market saturation, innovation opportunities post-price wars, potential for new entrants, and the prospects for companies in the post-collective procurement landscape [10][11]. Target Audience - The report is aimed at various stakeholders, including medical device companies, investment analysts, government teams, hospital procurement departments, and entrepreneurs focused on stable and certain market segments [12]. Future Outlook - The upcoming white paper titled "Opportunities in the Operating Room: Ultrasound Knife Industry White Paper (2024)" will be released soon, indicating that this is just the beginning of a broader analysis of other medical devices that may also have untold stories [15].

Market Overview - On June 20, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3369 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3359.90 points, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,005.03 points, down 0.47%[6] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1,091.9 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[6] Sector Performance - Banking, liquor, insurance, and photovoltaic equipment sectors performed well, while mining, precious metals, cultural media, and gaming sectors lagged[3] - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets declined, with the banking and liquor sectors seeing significant capital inflows[6] Valuation Metrics - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.83 times and 36.38 times, respectively, indicating a mid-range valuation over the past three years[3] - The current trading volume is above the median level for the past three years, suggesting a stable market environment[3] Economic Outlook - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, driven by consumption and investment[3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement its next interest rate cut as early as September, which could lead to further easing of overseas liquidity[3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in the banking, insurance, liquor, and shipbuilding sectors[3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor policy changes, capital flows, and international market conditions for potential impacts on the A-share market[3]

Group 1 - The CSI A500 Index (000510) declined by 0.89% as of June 19, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Notable gainers included Electric Science and Technology Network Security (002268) and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240), both hitting the daily limit, while Haige Communication (002465) led the decline [1] - The CSI A500 ETF leader (563800) had a turnover rate of 5.88% for the day, with a total transaction volume of 1.005 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 ETF leader's latest scale reached 17.191 billion yuan, making it the largest in the Shanghai market, with a recent growth of 878 million yuan in scale [1] - The ETF's share count increased by 1.206 billion shares in the past six months, ranking second among comparable funds [1] - The CSI A500 Index reflects the overall performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries, balancing traditional and emerging sectors [1] Group 3 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai highlighted confidence in the Chinese capital market, with discussions on stabilizing market operations and enhancing market functions [2] - Major foreign investment firms, including Morgan Stanley and BlackRock, expressed optimism about structural opportunities in the Chinese market, focusing on technology growth, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption sectors [2] - CITIC Securities noted that a weak dollar trend, supportive capital market policies, and improved liquidity conditions could drive the A-share market upward [2]