Market Reaction - The rumor of Powell considering resignation led to significant market volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.63%, S&P 500 down 0.33%, and Nasdaq decreasing by 0.22% on July 11 [1] - Investors showed heightened sensitivity to changes in the Federal Reserve leadership amid economic uncertainties, particularly regarding tariff policies [1] Safe-Haven Assets - Gold is anticipated to rise, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce if Powell's departure triggers a shift towards looser monetary policy [2] - Bitcoin is projected to surge to $250,000 due to perceived damage to the dollar's credibility [2] Federal Reserve Independence and Policy Risks - Concerns about political interference stem from ongoing pressure from the Trump administration, focusing on policy disagreements and the "luxury waste" of the Fed's renovation budget, which increased from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2] - The Federal Reserve Act stipulates that the President can only dismiss the Fed Chair for "misconduct or dereliction of duty," making policy disagreements an insufficient reason for dismissal [3] Long-Term Economic and Policy Implications - If Powell resigns, potential successors may favor interest rate cuts to align with Trump's economic stimulus goals, posing risks of inflation rebound given the current inflation rate of 2.3%-2.4% [4] - Political interference in central bank independence could undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency, leading to a shift of funds towards alternatives like the euro and yen [5] Market Chain Reactions - The anticipated resignation of Powell could steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve, resulting in increased long-term financing costs [5] Rumor Authenticity Assessment - Conflicting evidence surrounds the resignation rumors, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency director citing reports without specific sources, while the Fed officially stated Powell intends to complete his term until May 2026 [7] - The resignation rumors are viewed as a tactic by the Trump administration to pressure Powell into compromising on interest rate policies [8] Conclusion - The rumors, while unconfirmed, highlight the political risks facing U.S. monetary policy, with short-term market volatility and long-term damage to dollar credibility being key impacts [9]

当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普以美联储总部翻修工程超支7亿美元为由，再次公开要求美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，并暗示将通过法律途径罢免其职务。这 一被市场称为"装修门"的事件引发全球金融市场震动，美联储连夜发布声明澄清称翻修工程系必要维护，与政策无关。现货黄金价格在7月14日亚盘冲高至 3372.49美元/盎司后回落，最终重新拉升至3370美元附近，市场避险情绪与政策博弈交织，黄金短期波动加剧。 一、特朗普借"装修门"发难，美联储独立性面临考验 特朗普团队此次发难的核心依据是美联储总部翻修工程成本从最初的18亿美元飙升至25亿美元，白宫管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔・沃特指责鲍威尔在国会 证词中"隐瞒奢华设施配置"，包括屋顶花园、VIP电梯等。白宫经济顾问哈塞特更声称，若美联储无法合理解释超支问题，总统有权以"管理不善"为由罢免 鲍威尔。这一指控被舆论视为特朗普继施压降息后，试图通过法律途径干预美联储的最新手段。 法律层面，根据1935年《联邦储备法》，总统仅能以"效率低下、玩忽职守或渎职"等"正当理由"罢免美联储主席，政策分歧不构成合法依据。然而，特朗普 政府正推动最高法院重新审理"汉弗莱执行人"案，试图推翻193 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index has experienced a significant decline of 10.79% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance in nearly 52 years, with a low of 96.37 reached on July 1, 2023 [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar index, with market expectations for further rate cuts in September 2023 [2] - The US economy is showing signs of weakness due to high interest rates and trade policy uncertainties, which may narrow the economic gap between the US and non-US countries, contributing to a weaker dollar index [2][3] Group 2 - The dollar's creditworthiness is under scrutiny due to persistent fiscal deficits and debt expansion, leading to a downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 by Moody's, reflecting a decline in the credit quality of dollar assets [4] - The rise of "de-dollarization" rhetoric is weakening the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, which may exert long-term downward pressure on the dollar index [4]

Group 1 - The scale of US national debt has reached $36.22 trillion, with debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 123%, significantly exceeding international warning levels [1] - The "big and beautiful" plan proposed by Trump has raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, accelerating the increase in US debt ratio [1] - The expansion of debt implies increased repayment pressure, especially amid declining dollar and US government credit, leading to market skepticism about repayment capabilities [1] Group 2 - The dollar has transitioned from being gold-backed to oil-backed, maintaining its dominant position in international trade and finance for nearly 80 years [2] - The dollar's unique status has led to its role as a global "credit standard," with countries accumulating US Treasury bonds to bolster their own international credit [2] - The expansion of US national debt is a direct result of the expansion of dollar credit [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve, through modern monetary theory, creates incremental currency based on the quantity of national debt, ensuring that excessive dollar issuance does not lead to currency devaluation [3] - Geopolitical risks and the global shift towards green energy are diminishing the dollar's stability, while the Fed's balance sheet expansion has significantly increased dollar liquidity [3] - The Fed faces challenges in maintaining dollar credit amid rising geopolitical tensions and increased liquidity [3] Group 4 - Trump's intention to restructure the Federal Reserve aims to lower financing costs and ensure the sustainability of US debt issuance [4] - The potential loss of Fed independence could undermine its ability to control inflation and maintain the dollar's value [4] Group 5 - Trump's tariff policies aim to reverse the US trade deficit and compel capital to return to American manufacturing, but this could undermine the global trade system that supports the dollar's status [5] - The US's unilateral financial sanctions and misuse of the SWIFT system are eroding the dollar's international credibility [5][6] Group 6 - The US government credit is experiencing marginal decline due to political polarization and the erosion of policy continuity, leading to skepticism about the government's commitments [7] - The US has lost its leadership role in international organizations, further diminishing its credibility [8] Group 7 - The growing fiscal deficit has led to a vicious cycle of increased borrowing and rising debt service costs, with interest payments projected to exceed $1.1 trillion in FY2024 [9] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa, reflecting concerns over the government's creditworthiness [9] Group 8 - In response to declining demand for US Treasuries, the US government is exploring the issuance of stablecoins to support debt issuance [10][11] - The GENIUS Act aims to establish a framework for stablecoins backed by US Treasury bonds, potentially increasing demand for Treasuries [11][12] Group 9 - Stablecoins have become significant buyers of US Treasuries, with projections indicating that stablecoin issuance could lead to an additional $1.6 trillion in Treasury demand by 2028 [12][13] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoins be backed by short-term US Treasuries, ensuring safety and liquidity [13]

Group 1 - China has reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds for eight consecutive months, decreasing by over $550 billion from its peak, with a notable reduction of $18.9 billion in March alone [1][5][7] - The US Treasury Secretary has expressed a desire for constructive dialogue with China, highlighting the broad common interests in economic and global affairs [3][5] - The timing of the US's conciliatory approach towards China coincides with China's strategic shift away from US debt, indicating a growing concern in the US regarding its reliance on Chinese investment [5][9] Group 2 - The reduction in US Treasury holdings is part of a systematic strategic adjustment by China, aimed at decreasing dependence on dollar assets while increasing gold reserves, which reached 73.9 million ounces by the end of June [5][11] - The US's rising fiscal deficit and national debt, exceeding $36 trillion, coupled with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates, have led to concerns about the stability of US debt [7][13] - China's actions are seen as a rational judgment for national financial security, recognizing the risks associated with holding US debt amid potential sanctions and asset freezes [7][11] Group 3 - The US is anxious about the potential market impact of China's continued reduction of US Treasury holdings, as it could trigger a chain reaction among other countries, leading to a significant drop in bond prices and increased borrowing costs for the US government [9][15] - China's long-term strategy includes reducing reliance on the dollar and establishing a self-directed financial framework, influenced by past experiences with US financial sanctions [11][15] - Future high-level talks between the US and China are anticipated, covering sensitive topics such as trade, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and US debt trends [13][15]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌上海报道 美国滥施关税的冲击波仍在继续。据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令， 延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。美国将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、 韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 特朗普在自己创立的"真实社交"网站上陆续发布了他写给日本、韩国、马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦、南非、 老挝、缅甸、突尼斯、波黑、印度尼西亚、孟加拉国、塞尔维亚、柬埔寨、泰国等14国领导人的信函， 阐述征税理由，并表示新关税将不包括其他行业关税。 随后，日本、韩国、南非等国相继作出回应，称关税"令人遗憾""不合理"，并表示将在期限内继续与美 方谈判。日本首相石破茂就美国再度提高关税表示"非常遗憾"，已指示相关阁僚在8月1日之前继续谈 判，寻求既维护日本国家利益又能实现双赢的协议。 受特朗普政府宣布加征关税消息影响，美国市场遭遇"股债双杀"，美股三大指数7日全线下挫，美债下 跌。美元指数走高，美元兑日元的涨势最为明显，7日尾盘上涨1.09%，报146.130。一手加税，一手延 期 在美国延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期的同时，新的关税威胁也接踵而 ...

"大而美"法案的支持者声称，法案将通过企业回流与投资增长重塑美国经济竞争力。不过，当减税红利 被关税成本抵消，企业实际承担的合规成本与供应链中断损失，可能远超税收优惠。更关键的是，以邻 为壑的政策必然引发反制——欧盟已酝酿针对性关税，新兴市场则在加速"去美元化"布局。这种对抗性 循环一旦形成，全球经济增长的整体蛋糕将持续萎缩，最终反噬美国企业的海外利润根基。 本届美国政府就职以来推出的种种争议政策，反映出美国国内经济治理失序的困境。这种政策变动正对 世界经济带来多重冲击。 首先，多边贸易体系遭遇信任危机。当美国以国内法案为由单方面调整关税，其行为违背了世界贸易组 织（WTO）框架下的互惠原则。欧盟、日本等传统盟友被迫重新评估与美国的贸易关系，新兴经济体 则加速推进区域自贸协定以规避系统性风险。全球供应链从效率优先转向安全优先的重构进程，因美国 政策不可预测性而显著提速。 其次，美元信用基础面临持续侵蚀。法案再度提升债务上限，虽然暂时避免债务违约，却让美国国债规 模突破40万亿美元。当财政纪律让位于政治周期，各国央行对美元资产的长期信心必然受损。历史表 明，主权货币的全球地位不仅依赖市场，更需要货币发行国的财政 ...

核 心 观 点 5月下旬，美国、中国香港相继通过稳定币监管法案，成为市场新焦点。在过去一年中，前五大稳定币市值增长约45%。在高速增长下，稳定币将对汇率产生 怎样的影响？ 稳定币如何传导至汇率？ 稳定币是通过锚定资产实现币值相对稳定的加密货币， 主要包括链下资产支持型、链上资产支持型和算法型，以美元稳定币USDT和 USDC为主。 发行机制方面， USDT通过客户存入美元后，按固定比例向客户发行等值稳定币，且将美元资金投资于高流动性资产以保证刚性兑付。 供需方面， 美元稳定币降低交易成本，提升美元需求，支撑美元指数；对弱势货币国家则可能导致本币贬值和资本外流。 风险方面， 稳定币交易快速增长带来监管难度、流 动性和市场风险，后二者叠加可能触发流动性紧缩，促使央行干预。 市场集中度方面， 2024年USDT和USDC总量占总交易量和总供应量的绝对多数，市场高度集 中。同时， 交易规模持续快速增长， 2024年增速超50%，2025年前6个月累计增速继续上行。 稳定币能救美元么 ？ 对于本币而言，稳定币是一针"强心剂"。 稳定币的结算成本更低，根据coinbase研究，目前全球范围内汇款200美元的平均成本仍为汇 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, surpassing $1,000 per ounce in March 2008, $2,000 in August 2020, and reaching over $3,000 in March 2025[2][18] - The average production cost of gold increased by 45% from $1,003 per ounce in Q4 2020 to $1,456 in Q3 2024, while gold prices rose by 32% during the same period[6][30] - Investment demand for gold reached 42.1% of total demand in Q1 2025, up from an average of 29.1% from 2010 to 2024[4][22] Group 2: Demand Sources - The four main sources of gold demand are jewelry (43.7%), central bank purchases (23.6%), investment (25.7%), and technology (7.1%) as of 2024[4][19] - Central banks have consistently purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for nearly 30% of global mine production[4][24] - Gold jewelry demand averaged 49.6% of total demand from 2010 to 2024, making it the largest source of gold consumption[4][19] Group 3: Economic Influences - Actual interest rates are a key driver of gold price fluctuations; as rates rise, gold becomes less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets[7][35] - The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023, totaling 525 basis points, which pressured gold prices down from $2,050 to $1,820 per ounce[7][35] - Global debt levels reached approximately $324 trillion in Q1 2025, with a $7.5 trillion increase in just three months, raising concerns about economic stability and boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven[10][50] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Market liquidity significantly impacts gold prices; increased liquidity typically raises gold demand, while tightening liquidity can lead to price declines[8][40] - In August 2020, gold prices exceeded $2,000 per ounce due to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing measures during the pandemic[8][40] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2019, reflecting a growing trend towards gold accumulation[11][54]

每经编辑｜彭水萍 直播嘉宾： 当前推动金价的核心动能在于避险属性的强化与全球"去美元化"趋势。避险属性来看，当前地缘政治冲 突频发，美国宏观政策的不稳定也加剧全球市场的不确定性。未来任何超预期的地缘政治事件都可能成 为金价上涨的催化剂。 杨晓磊 知名投顾主理人 彭悦 国泰基金量化投资部基金经理助理 直播时间： 2025年6月25日 摘要： 近期黄金价格因中东地缘冲突加剧快速上涨，随后因避险情绪回落及美联储偏鹰表态而回调，显示出短 期走势的高波动性。当前分析黄金的核心逻辑有所转变，以美国实际利率为锚的传统分析框架有一定程 度的失灵，金价更多反映的是对美元信用的对冲。 影响美元信用的因素主要来自两方面：一是美国自身的经济与财政状况，二是地缘政治冲突。美国经济 上行时，美元往往走强，投资者也会更愿意持有美元，金价这个时候往往会下跌。 美联储的货币政策走向也是影响金价的重要因素。美联储方面，2025年6月的联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议上，美联储以12:0的结果维持联邦基金利率目标区间于4.25%-4.5%区间不变，公布的点 阵图显示降息节奏放缓，整体表态中性偏鹰。鲍威尔强调利率预测可能会根据经济数据发生变化， ...