Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - On October 22, 2025, the plastic industry's maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate at around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, with the agricultural film in the peak season. However, overall, the downstream PE operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The new capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Considering factors such as the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the mutual collection of special port fees for ships, and the lack of anti - involution policies in the plastic industry, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 22, the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current inventory was at a neutral level. With new capacity put into production, the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Due to factors like Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the lack of anti - involution policies, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract rose with reduced positions, closing at 6936 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The trading range was from 6873 to 6956 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 12,101 lots to 549,864 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market had mixed price changes, with fluctuations between - 100 and + 20 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6810 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8930 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7230 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 22, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Wednesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 780,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $770/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $780/ton [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report predicts that plastics will experience a weak and volatile trend in the near future. Factors such as the signing of a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, OPEC+ planning to increase production in November, the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, and insufficient downstream purchasing willingness contribute to this prediction. Although the peak season of agricultural film may bring some support, the overall situation remains under pressure[1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - On October 21, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. Agricultural film entered the peak season, but the peak season was less than expected, and the post - National Day stocking demand weakened. New production capacity was put into operation, and the plastics operating rate decreased slightly. With concerns about economic growth and no actual anti - involution policies in the plastics industry, plastics are expected to oscillate weakly in the near future[1]. [期现行情] - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,830 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,915 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,883 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.38%. The position volume decreased by 135 lots to 561,965 lots[2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,930 - 9,930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,260 - 8,090 yuan/ton[3]. [基本面跟踪] - **Supply**: On October 21, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level[1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. After the National Day, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories increased but were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years[1][4]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons, and on Tuesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 790,000 tons, 35,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years[1][4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $61 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780 per ton[4].

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Weekly Report - Release Time: October 20, 2025 - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Report Issuer: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term due to factors such as cost pressure, new capacity releases, and under - expected seasonal demand [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Plastic and PP prices are oscillating downward [4] - The cost of crude oil has declined due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, OPEC+ plan to increase production in November, and the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions [3] - New capacity has been added, including the trial operation of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, and the recent commissioning of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton/year PE and 400,000 - ton/year PP [3] - Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, the demand is under - expected, and the stocking demand has weakened after the National Day [3] - Sino - US mutual collection of special port fees for ships has increased concerns about economic growth [3] - There is no actual anti - involution policy in the polyolefin industry, but relevant macro - policies will affect future market trends [3] Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate has risen by 0.5 percentage points to around 88%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices at Yulong Petrochemical [14] - PP operating rate has dropped by 2 percentage points to around 82%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, because of new maintenance devices at Tianjin Bohua [14] Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of October 17, PE downstream operating rate has increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Agricultural film orders and raw material inventories have increased after the National Day, but are still lower than in previous years, and packaging film orders have slightly decreased [20] - As of the week of October 17, PP downstream operating rate has rebounded by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving operating rate has remained flat at 44.26%, and plastic weaving orders have continued to slightly decrease, slightly lower than last year [20] Plastic Basis - The basis of the 01 contract has risen to 196 yuan/ton, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, as the futures price has declined more than the spot price [25] Plastic and PP Inventories - During the National Day holiday, petrochemical early - morning inventories increased by 270,000 tons. As of Friday, they decreased by 30,000 tons to 770,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year is similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 17, 2025, the restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units led to a rise in the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, with the agricultural film entering the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end oil price dropped due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas and OPEC+'s planned production increase in November. Considering the supply increase, insufficient demand, and other factors, it is expected that plastics will experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units on October 17 increased the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end oil price dropped, and factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and the lack of actual anti - involution policies in the plastic industry suggest that plastics will likely experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6855 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6936 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6874 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position decreased by 1233 lots to 565412 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with a price change range of - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8940 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7290 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 17, the restart of Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled units increased the plastic operating rate to around 88%, which is at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but compared with previous years, the orders and raw material inventory of the agricultural film were still low, and the orders for packaging film decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Friday, the petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 770,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year is similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil December contract dropped to $61 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $785 per ton [4]

Report Title - PVC 2025 Q4 Report: New Capacity Launch vs. Anti-Involution Game [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Cost side: Calcium carbide prices rose due to coal price increases and orderly power consumption, but with overall oversupply, the room for further price increases to drive up PVC prices is limited. Under the "alkali for chlorine" model, current cash flows have not led to the shutdown of PVC plants. PVC operating rates have reached relatively high levels for the same period in history. From October to November, PVC will enter the autumn maintenance season, but the new capacity of 1.4 million tons/year put into operation in August - September will be fully released in Q4, and the 300,000 tons/year capacity of Jiahua Energy may be put into operation in Q4, so it is expected that autumn maintenance will not offset the increase from new capacity. The six - department joint plan for stable growth in the building materials industry has not yet had actual policies implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old plants to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect future market trends. From January to August 2025, the real estate market was still in adjustment, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was at the lowest level for the same period in history, and real estate improvement still requires time. In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, with improved manufacturing sentiment but still below the boom - bust line. PVC downstream operating rates have not significantly improved and are at a low level since March. Downstream products are cautious about restocking. Q4 is the peak construction season for real estate projects, and domestic consumption may increase seasonally, so PVC demand may improve slightly. The export growth rate of PVC floor coverings has slowed significantly. India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. China Taiwan's Formosa Plastics' October quotation was stable. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50/ton for the Chinese mainland. China's PVC export outlook is weakening in Q4. Currently, PVC social inventory is rising, with high pressure, and warehouse receipts are at a historical high, and the PVC basis is low, with supply still in surplus. It is expected that PVC will mainly seek a bottom through oscillations, and after continuous price declines, its valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. Of course, favorable real estate and anti - involution policies and improved external demand will stimulate PVC to rise periodically, especially in October when major policies may be introduced. For arbitrage, a 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [6][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Price Trends - Indian PVC spot prices have risen slightly since April 2025, and China's PVC spot export profits have increased slightly. After the main contract shifted to the 2601 contract, the spot price in East China again became deeply discounted. Recently, the 01 basis has rebounded slightly but is still at a relatively low level for the same period in recent years. PVC2601's top 20 net positions have always been in a short position. PVC warehouse receipts decreased from the historical high to 0 at the beginning of 2025 but then continued to rise and reached a new historical high due to weak spot demand and the futures still at a premium to the spot [15][20][25]. PVC Upstream - Affected by orderly power consumption, the calcium carbide operating rate dropped to 64% after March, at a low level. With the increase in the cost of semi - coke, calcium carbide prices rebounded continuously from a low level in September, with a rise of 210 yuan/ton in the northwest region but still about 200 yuan/ton lower than the end of last year. Semi - coke prices also increased significantly in September. Calcium carbide profits were stable but still in a loss state, and the semi - coke loss margin was stable, with the operating load rising to a neutral level of 56% [33]. PVC Profits - The continuous decline in PVC spot prices has led to losses in both the calcium carbide and ethylene methods of PVC production. However, under the "alkali for chlorine" model, current cash flows have not led to the concentrated shutdown of PVC plants [40]. PVC Output and Operating Rates - In August 2025, PVC output increased by 3.43% month - on - month to 2.0733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.09%. From January to August 2025, cumulative PVC output was 16.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04%, at the highest level for the same period in recent years. The PVC maintenance loss in August decreased by 3.22% month - on - month to 577,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative PVC maintenance loss was 4.2349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period in recent years. In August 2025, the PVC operating rate was 78.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.13 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.12 percentage points, at a relatively high level for the same period in history. Supported by the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the PVC operating rate has remained at a relatively high level for the same period in history in the past three months. As of the week of September 26, affected by plants such as Heilongjiang Haohua and Gansu Jinchuan, the PVC operating rate increased by 2.01 percentage points month - on - month to 78.97%, rising to a relatively high level for the same period in recent years [48][51]. PVC New Capacity - Although the new capacity of the calcium carbide method has slowed down due to poor profits and environmental protection policies, there were still multiple sets of new ethylene - based PVC capacity put into operation in 2025, especially in August - September, and most are located in East China. Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year capacity was put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year capacity is expected to achieve stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year capacity was put into operation in early September and is currently close to full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons/year capacity is in the trial - run stage in September. Attention should also be paid to the commissioning progress of Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year capacity [54]. PVC Maintenance - In addition to long - term shutdowns of plants such as Taishan Yanhua and Shandong Dongyue, a few newly added plants in 2025, such as Suzhou Huasu and Salt Lake Magnesium, are still under maintenance. From October to November, PVC will enter the autumn maintenance season, but it is expected that with the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, autumn maintenance will not offset the increase from new capacity [56]. PVC Imports and Exports - In August 2025, PVC imports were at the lowest level for the same period in history, and exports decreased month - on - month due to concerns about Indian anti - dumping duties but still remained at a relatively high level. The proportion of China's exports to India dropped to 39.22%. The net export volume of PVC in August decreased to 271,700 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 11.24% and a year - on - year increase of 49.86%, still at the highest level for the same period in recent years. In September, there was still a small profit in PVC exports, but Indian anti - dumping duties and the BIS certification policy will suppress China's PVC exports in Q4. China's PVC production capacity accounts for 45% of the global total. While the domestic real estate market is in adjustment, developing countries such as India and Vietnam have strong demand for PVC but insufficient domestic production capacity. Although India's anti - dumping policy is unfavorable for China's exports to India, China can increase exports to other countries like Vietnam, but this will take time, and it is expected that this shift cannot fully fill the Indian gap in Q4 [63][73]. Real Estate Data - From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline in national real estate development investment widened by 0.9 percentage points to - 12.9% compared to January - July. The year - on - year decline in national land purchase fees widened by 1.3 percentage points to - 10.2%. The year - on - year decline in national housing construction area widened by 0.1 percentage point to - 9.3%. From January to August, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.304 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the sales volume was 5.5015 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. As of the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded by 9.49% week - on - week but was at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. From January to August, the housing completion area was 27.694 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [79][84][88]. PVC Floor Covering Exports - In August, the export volume of PVC floor coverings decreased by 1.50% month - on - month to 347,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.49%, at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC floor coverings was 2.795 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. Affected by the global trade war, especially the Sino - US trade war, China's PVC floor covering exports have performed poorly [92]. PVC Downstream Operating Rates - Despite the government's introduction of multiple real estate stimulus policies, the performance of the PVC downstream in 2025 has been cautious, and the recovery of operating rates has been slow. As of the week of September 26, the PVC downstream operating rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points month - on - month to 47.76%, a year - on - year increase of 2.99 percentage points. The policies have not yet been transmitted to the PVC demand side, and the demand for downstream PVC pipes and profiles is at a low level for the same period in history [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is to "wait and see" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market opened lower and fluctuated. The start - up rate of plastics was at a neutral level, and the downstream start - up rate of PE increased slightly but was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September was average, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. Although the agricultural film was entering the peak season, the peak season was not as good as expected. There was no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, and it was recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On September 23, the start - up rate of plastics remained at around 85%, a neutral level. The downstream start - up rate of PE increased by 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film was entering the peak season, but the growth rate of orders and raw material inventory slowed down. Packaging film orders also increased. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials decreased as crude oil prices fell. A new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of Jilin Petrochemical HDPE was put into operation in late July, slightly reducing the plastics start - up rate. The peak season of agricultural film did not meet expectations, and there was no anti - involution policy, so it was recommended to wait and see [1] Futures Market - The plastics 2601 contract opened lower, increased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 7,090 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,128 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7,105 yuan/ton, down 0.67% below the 60 - day moving average. The position increased by 8,837 lots to 589,676 lots [2] Spot Market - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 80 to + 20 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7,010 - 7,570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,350 - 9,630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,430 - 8,150 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on September 23, the start - up rate of plastics remained at around 85%, a neutral level. On the demand side, as of the week of September 19, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased by 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film was entering the peak season, but the overall downstream start - up rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons on Tuesday, 95,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September was average, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The price of Brent crude oil's December contract dropped to 66 US dollars/barrel, and the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at 840 US dollars/ton and 845 US dollars/ton respectively [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The overseas market is trading on the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the issue of its independence, with the falling US dollar index supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline in September, and imported copper may increase. Although demand is affected by tariffs and pre - emptive exports, there is an improving trend [10]. - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited. After the market rebound, it stimulates downstream purchasing sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, there is demand support below. However, the market is easily affected by industry news, and attention should be paid to mine disturbances [12]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short on rallies. Although the price once rebounded due to positive EIA data and market bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut, the consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the supply - demand situation is weakening [13][15]. - Asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply - demand situation is weak, with the开工 rate falling, demand restricted by factors such as funds and weather, and limited cost support from crude oil [16]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate is gradually rising, and the peak season may bring some boost. However, the supply is increasing, and the market is affected by global trade wars and anti - involution policies [17][18]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. Although the agricultural film industry is improving, the overall demand is still weak, and it is affected by anti - involution policies [19]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is large [20][21]. - The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The price is under pressure due to imported coal, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of coke price adjustments [22]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate. In the autumn fertilizer peak season, there is some demand support, but the supply is still abundant, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton fluctuation range [24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 1, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, Shanghai silver rose more than 4%, caustic soda and Shanghai gold rose more than 2%, and container shipping to Europe, Shanghai nickel, and stainless steel (SS) rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, glass, coke, and coking coal fell more than 3%, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and soda ash fell more than 2%, and rebar and cotton fell nearly 2%. Stock index futures also showed different degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:19 on September 1, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai copper 2510 inflowed 1.989 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2510 inflowed 1.741 billion yuan, and Shanghai gold 2510 inflowed 1.488 billion yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 outflowed 4.304 billion yuan, CSI 500 2509 outflowed 3.721 billion yuan, and CSI 1000 2509 outflowed 2.89 billion yuan [8]. Individual Variety Analysis Copper - The market opened high and moved low, with a strong - side oscillation. The US PCE price index rose in July. China's copper imports increased in July, and the port inventory of concentrates rebounded. The smelter processing fee decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The import of copper may increase, which will affect the domestic market. The demand is affected by factors such as domestic investment in power grid facilities and the weakening of external demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased. The domestic production is expected to decline from August to September. The demand is supported by the peak - season stocking of power battery factories, but the market is easily affected by industry news [12]. Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decrease, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [13][15]. Asphalt - The supply - side operating rate decreased last week, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased, but it is still at a low level. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [16]. PP - The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s production increase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, but the peak season may bring some boost [17][18]. Plastic - The operating rate decreased on September 1, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. The agricultural film industry is improving, but the overall demand is still weak [19]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate is still low. India extended the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping tax on Chinese PVC increased, weakening the export expectation. The social inventory is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. The new production capacity is increasing, and the price is under pressure [20][21]. Coking Coal - The price opened low and moved low, with a downward oscillation. The price of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The import of coking coal increased in July, and the domestic production decreased due to environmental protection and production cuts. The independent coking enterprises' profit is positive, and the coking coal inventory is decreasing. The coke price increase is not yet finalized, and the steel mill's profit is weakening [22]. Urea - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased in August due to maintenance and environmental protection restrictions, but the new production capacity will be put into operation. The demand of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to the September parade, and the industrial demand is affected by the real - estate market. The inventory increased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the overnight copper price strengthened, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut and independence issues. The upward potential of the current price is approaching the resistance level, and caution is needed for a possible correction [9]. - For lithium carbonate, after a significant correction in the market, it has stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment. With supply - side disturbances ongoing and approaching the peak season, the downside is limited, but the market is volatile and requires cautious operation [11]. - For crude oil, although the price rebounded due to certain factors, the supply - demand situation is weakening as the consumption peak season ends and OPEC + accelerates production increases. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, under the condition of weak supply and demand, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate recently with limited cost - side support [15]. - For PP, with the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC + accelerating production increases, and considering supply and demand factors, the PP market is expected to fluctuate recently [17]. - For plastic, with the end of the consumption peak season, oil price pressure, and considering supply and demand, the plastic market is expected to fluctuate recently [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as reduced export expectations, high inventory, and weak demand, the PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward [20]. - For coking coal, although the market has rumors of a ninth round of price increases, the downstream demand is weakening, but the downward space is limited [21]. - For urea, after a short - term weak adjustment, there may be a rebound opportunity in September with the support of autumn fertilizers and approaching the off - season storage and Indian tender [23]. Summary by Variety Copper - The EU is promoting the EU - US agreement, and the Fed's Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The supply side may face production cuts in the later third quarter, and the demand side has weak market transactions. The upward potential of the price is approaching the resistance level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July, imports decreased significantly, and domestic production in August - September is expected to decline. The demand side has support, but the market is volatile [11]. Crude Oil - The US oil and gasoline inventories are decreasing, and OPEC + will increase production in September. The market is concerned about the US economy, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [12][14]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate is declining, and the planned production in September will increase. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the cost - side support is limited, resulting in a volatile market [15]. PP - The downstream and enterprise production rates have changed, and the inventory is at a neutral level. With the end of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to fluctuate [16][17]. Plastic - The production rate is stable, and the downstream production rate has increased slightly. The cost - side pressure is high, and the market is expected to fluctuate [18]. PVC - The production rate is decreasing, the export expectations are weakening, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate downward [19][20]. Coking Coal - The spot price has changed, the import volume has increased, and the downstream demand is weakening. Although there are rumors of price increases, the downward space is limited [21]. Urea - The spot price has increased slightly, the supply has decreased due to maintenance, the demand has been affected by environmental protection, and there may be a rebound opportunity in September [23].