Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕**: The current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Weekend rainfall in western Canada and expected heavy rainfall this week have alleviated the previous drought. In the US, the soybean good - rate is relatively high and the domestic soybean supply is increasing, which suppresses the meal market. Domestically, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is rising, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news. The rapeseed meal closed up in a volatile manner today and may maintain volatility in the short term [2] - **菜油**: Internationally, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease, and international biodiesel policies support the palm oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. The rapeseed oil closed down with reduced positions, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9510 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2586 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 704.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5079 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 60 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 273 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil were 15732 lots, down 2370 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal were - 11828 lots, up 2352 lots. The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil were 281867 lots, down 712 lots; the positions of the main contracts of rapeseed meal were 567429 lots, down 12874 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3021, up 301; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 15663, down 136 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2480 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9670 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5041.46 yuan/ton, up 52.97 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.77, unchanged [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1080 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - **Imports and Processing**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 12.53%, up 1.07 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.01 million tons, down 1.14 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 million tons, down 0.64 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 59.95 million tons, down 1.64 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 35.58 million tons, down 1.32 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 29.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2] - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.11 million tons, down 0.89 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 1.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2] - **Consumption**: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.25%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.34%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 17%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 17.01%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.54%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal and other related data were not fully provided [2] 3.7 Industry News - On July 8, ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, with the most active November contract up 7.30 Canadian dollars to 704.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the same period last year [2] - The average forecast of analysts before the MPOB report was that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June would drop to 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from May [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is becoming more abundant as imported soybeans arrive at ports, which exerts downward pressure on the meal market. Although the aquaculture season boosts the demand for rapeseed meal, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens its demand expectation. The price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the influence of the decline in US soybean prices [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic supply of vegetable oil is abundant, and the high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts the market price. However, the decrease in the mill's operating rate eases the output pressure, and the potential tightening of China - Canada economic and trade relations may affect rapeseed exports to China. The price of rapeseed oil may experience increased short - term fluctuations due to the boost from the rise in palm oil prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9598 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2576 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 695 Canadian dollars/ton (down 24.1 Canadian dollars), and that of the active rapeseed futures is 5039 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan) [2]. - Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 54 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 266 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 294,741 lots (down 12,510 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 568,141 lots (up 2,383 lots). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 18,102 lots (down 986 lots), and for rapeseed meal are - 14,180 lots (down 1,729 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 2,720 (up 1,915), and that of rapeseed meal is 15,799 (up 581) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9700 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2480 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9732.5 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed is 4988.49 yuan/ton (down 160.17 yuan) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 152 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is - 96 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8100 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8550 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan). The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1210 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 320 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecasted production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 tons (down 15.37 tons), and the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 tons (up 10 tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2]. - Profits and operating rates: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 53 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.53% (up 1.07%) [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 tons (unchanged), the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.01 tons (down 1.14 tons), and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons (down 0.64 tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 59.95 tons (down 1.64 tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 35.58 tons (down 1.32 tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 6.9 tons (down 0.3 tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 29.3 tons (down 0.8 tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.11 tons (down 0.89 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.32 tons (down 1.16 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer retail sales of catering revenue is 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 17.1% (up 0.16%), and that of put options is 17.1% (up 0.17%). The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.07% (up 0.3%), and that of put options is 13.11% (up 0.34%) [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 14.23% (down 0.2%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 18.72% (down 0.54%). The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.14% (up 0.04%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.45% (down 0.44%) [2]. Industry News - Canadian rapeseed futures: On Monday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the largest single - day decline in nearly a month due to expected rainfall in Canada, which improved the crop growth outlook [2]. - US soybean situation: As of July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is currently favorable [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is becoming more abundant as imported soybeans arrive at ports, which suppresses the price of the meal market. Although the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing due to the peak season, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures may continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The potential tightening of China - Canada economic and trade relations may affect rapeseed exports to China. The rapeseed oil futures may experience intensified short - term fluctuations due to external macro - policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9477 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2586 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed was 709.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 11.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed was 4950 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 49 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 280 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 25491 lots, down 1736 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 16349 lots, up 7198 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 100, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal was 20529, down 331 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9580 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2490 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5165.22 yuan/ton, up 119.47 yuan [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 165 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 96 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 33.55 tons, down 15.37 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 15 tons, down 5 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 11.46%, down 2.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 tons, up 10 tons; that of rapeseed meal was 28.79 tons, up 4.13 tons [2]. - Inventory and提货量: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 11.15 tons, down 1.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, up 0.09 tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil was 3 tons, up 0.19 tons; that of rapeseed meal was 3.48 tons, up 0.61 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; that of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.84%, down 0.57%; that of put options was 18.97%, down 0.45%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil was 14.69%, up 0.53% and 0.52% respectively [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 15.49%, down 3.45%; the 60 - day was 20.71%, down 0.7%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.98%, down 0.2%; the 60 - day was 14.9%, up 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 30, ICE rapeseed futures jumped as the US - Canada trade negotiation restarted, easing market concerns. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract rose 16.80 Canadian dollars, or 2.4%, to 709.70 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - On June 29, Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US. The leaders of the two countries will resume negotiations to reach an agreement before July 21 [2]. - As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year. The 2025 US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and estimates, and down 4.2% year - on - year [2]. - Statistics Canada raised the 2024 rapeseed production forecast to 1.918 million tons and lowered the 2025 rapeseed planting area to 21.5 million acres [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors, including international market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trade policies. The market shows a complex situation with both upward and downward pressures [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The market is affected by factors such as the approaching aquaculture peak season, tight old - crop inventories of Canadian rapeseed, and the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations. The market is volatile, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Supported by factors like the rise in international oil prices and the cost - transfer effect, the price may continue to show a relatively strong trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9703 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2688 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 735.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.1 Canadian dollars, and that of rapeseed was 5236 yuan/ton, up 169 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 130 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 276 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract was 388,838 lots, up 25,904 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 517,117 lots, down 9620 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 35,115 lots, down 4628 lots; for rapeseed meal were 17,741 lots, down 9174 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 100, up 100; that of rapeseed meal was 25,864, down 43 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9753.75 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 5456.31 yuan/ton, down 25.71 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 167 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was - 88 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 20 million tons, down 5 million tons. The weekly utilization rate of imported rapeseed was 19.09%, down 0.1% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 12.93 million tons, down 1.37 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.55 million tons, down 0.35 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 61 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 37.24 million tons, down 0.94 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 7.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 31.5 million tons, up 6.3 million tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil was 3.54 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 3.43 million tons, up 0.14 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 21.96%, up 0.24%; that of at - the - money put options was 21.95%, up 0.23%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 15.28%, up 0.28%; that of at - the - money put options was 15.26%, up 0.26% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 15.87%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.4%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, up 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.63%, up 0.18% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On June 17, ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly. The July contract closed up 1.40 Canadian dollars at 744.50 Canadian dollars/ton, and the most actively traded November contract rose 3.90 Canadian dollars to 739.80 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 70% [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - **Market Influences**: The decline in the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans and the rise in US soybean oil prices support domestic rapeseed meal prices. However, the increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the improvement in oil mill utilization rates suppress the price. The peak season of aquaculture increases the demand for rapeseed meal, but the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase supply and drag down the price [2]. - **Market Performance**: Rapeseed meal closed higher in a volatile manner, but the position declined, indicating that long - position holders may be taking profits. Short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - **Market Influences**: The seasonal increase in palm oil production and high inventory pressure its price, but increased exports and the US biofuel policy support the market. The rise in international oil prices and the cost - transfer effect support domestic rapeseed oil prices [2]. - **Market Performance**: Rapeseed oil continued to rise, and it may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - Monitor the weekly rapeseed oil mill utilization rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report analyzes the rapeseed industry from multiple aspects including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and market news, and provides viewpoints on rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal. However, the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds potential supply increase, dragging down the rapeseed meal price. Today, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher supported by the rise of soybean meal, and short - term participation is advisable [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil producing areas enter the seasonal production increase season, and the output pressure restricts its market price. Although the export increase of palm oil provides some support, the high inventory pressure of domestic oil mills restricts the rapeseed oil market. The expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds future supply pressure, but the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost - side support for domestic rapeseed oil [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9583 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; that of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2682 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 735.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 11.8 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed (active contract) is 5067 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 124 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 290 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 362,934 lots, up 39,887 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 526,737 lots, down 7,445 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is 39,743 lots, up 7,757 lots; for rapeseed meal is 26,915 lots, down 819 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 0, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 25,907, down 270 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9650 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9653.75 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 5482.02 yuan/ton, up 76.32 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Ratios and Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.63, up 0.08; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 145 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 72 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1380 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8810 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 860 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 310 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 25 million tons, unchanged; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 14 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 19.09%, down 0.1% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.93 million tons, down 1.37 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 million tons, down 0.35 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 61 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 37.24 million tons, down 0.94 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 7.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 31.5 million tons, up 6.3 million tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.54 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 3.43 million tons, up 0.14 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The current - month feed production is 26.64 million tons, down 1.132 million tons; the current - month edible vegetable oil production is 4.404 million tons, down 0.87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 416.7 billion yuan, down 6.8 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.96%, up 0.24%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.95%, up 0.23%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.28%, up 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.26%, up 0.26% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.91%, down 0.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.39%, down 0.01%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.44%, down 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.45%, up 0.06% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On June 16, ICE rapeseed futures jumped following the rise of soybean oil prices, reaching a 19 - month high. The July rapeseed contract closed 12.10 Canadian dollars higher at 743.10 Canadian dollars per ton, and the November contract rose 12.70 Canadian dollars to 735.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 70%. The decline in the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is constrained by good weather this week. The sharp rise in US soybean oil boosts the US soybean market, and through cost transmission, it is beneficial to domestic meal prices [2]. 3.8 Palm Oil Situation - **Inventory**: The May palm oil inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase, reaching the highest level in 8 months [2]. - **Output and Demand**: Palm oil - producing areas enter the seasonal production increase season, with output pressure restricting the market. However, the increase in exports supports the palm oil market. The US EPA's proposal to increase the biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027 boosts the demand expectation for US soybean oil [2].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9152 | 51 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2567 | 24 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 157 | 15 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 254 | 22 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 301781 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed sharply lower on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 3.42%, breaking below the recent support level due to speculative long - position liquidation [2]. - The U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate as of June 1, 2025, was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The fast planting progress and good good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans continue to constrain the U.S. soybean market. However, heavy rains in Argentina in mid - to - late May may damage the soybean harvest, which boosts the market [2]. - In the domestic market, since this month, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil mill operating rate has significantly increased, and the supply has become more ample, putting pressure on the meal market prices. For rapeseed meal, after the tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal is increased, the direct import pressure will significantly decline, and the supply is likely to tighten later. But the new import of Indian rapeseed meal and relatively high short - term inventory pressure drag on the rapeseed meal market price [2]. - The short - term market still focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. The growth of Canadian rapeseed has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Last week, the weather in the Canadian prairie region was hot, dry, and with little precipitation, raising concerns about drought risks. However, the weather forecast shows that there will be beneficial rainfall in the prairie region this week [2]. - The palm oil producing areas have entered the seasonal production - increasing season, with increased output pressure. However, the improvement in export demand supports the palm oil market. India's reduction of CPO import tariffs may further benefit Malaysian palm oil exports, which boosts the domestic oil market. In the domestic market, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to constrain the market price, but the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost support for the domestic rapeseed oil market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9272 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2557 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 686.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 24.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5266 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 162 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 244 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract positions were 295183 hands, down 2199 hands; rapeseed meal main contract positions were 552037 hands, down 18839 hands [2]. - Top 20 futures positions: Net long positions of rapeseed oil were 26574 hands, down 3638 hands; net long positions of rapeseed meal were - 27832 hands, down 25527 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 27429, down 162 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8020 yuan/ton, unchanged; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; oil - meal ratio was 3.64, down 0.06 [2]. - Average price: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9563.75 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5095.95 yuan/ton, down 157.35 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 212 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 23.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 15.04 million tons, down 0.51 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2 million tons, down 0.35 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 55 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.96%, down 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 20.97%, down 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.61%, down 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.88%, up 1.93 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 27.09%, up 0.33 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.66 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 15.92%, down 0.17 percentage points [2].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9427 | 24 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2618 | 14 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 167 | -2 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 266 | 9 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 327483 | -2907 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 578743 | -23502 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 45807 | 4530 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -3648 | 8178 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 600 | -412 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 27615 | -394 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) ...

，继续牵制市场价格。菜油市场呈现短期供应宽松但长期不确定性较大。盘面来看，受棕榈油下跌拖累，菜油震荡收跌，总体仍维 持区间震荡，短线参与为主。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9405 | -35 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2562 | 10 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 200 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 226 | 7 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 333160 | -10213 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 608010 | -7430 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 44778 | -2759 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -34125 | -7516 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1036 | -67 仓单数量:菜粕(日, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For Rapeseed Meal**: Recently, the US soybean market declined, dragging down domestic meal prices. However, heavy rain in Argentina may damage soybean harvests and boost US soybean prices. In China, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans this month, oil - mill operations have gradually resumed. The short - term market focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. The USDA report predicts an increase in global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season, which will ease supply and suppress meal prices. After the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed meal, direct import pressure will decrease, but new imports from India and relatively high short - term inventory will affect prices. Today, rapeseed meal futures prices rose, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The US biofuel blending regulations await approval, and there are concerns about US soybean oil demand. Palm oil prices will be under pressure as the palm oil - producing areas enter the seasonal production - increasing season. In China, the decline in rapeseed imports eases supply pressure, and the increased tariff raises the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil, limiting future imports. However, high inventory continues to affect prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply surplus and long - term uncertainty. Today, rapeseed oil futures prices rose and remained range - bound, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9440 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2552 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; ICE rapeseed was 719.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 15.2 Canadian dollars; domestic rapeseed was 5211 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 199 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; for rapeseed meal, it was 219 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 47537 lots, up 6167 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 26609 lots, up 14338 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1103, unchanged; for rapeseed meal, it was 30947, down 37 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9561.25 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 5223.93 yuan/ton, up 108.1 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.79, up 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 195 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; for rapeseed meal, it was - 82 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1340 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; for rapeseed meal, it was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 27 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 200,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 17.32%, down 25.19 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 155,500 tons, down 5,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 29,000 tons, down 7,000 tons. The East China rapeseed oil inventory was 637,000 tons, down 12,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 435,400 tons, down 18,800 tons. The Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 80,000 tons, unchanged; the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 248,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 27,800 tons, up 20,600 tons; for rapeseed meal, it was 35,800 tons, down 14,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed was 2.7772 million tons, down 66,400 tons; for edible vegetable oil, it was 440,400 tons, down 87,000 tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 423.5 billion yuan, down 131.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.22%, down 0.26 percentage points; for put options, it was 22.22%, down 0.26 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.29%, up 0.96 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 27.02%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.01%, down 0.08 percentage points; for put options, it was 16.01%, down 0.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.16%, down 1.61 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 16.17%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Tuesday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed higher due to strong demand. The price increase ranged from 3.7 to 15.6 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - **US Soybeans**: As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%. The US soybean market declined recently, but heavy rain in Argentina may damage soybean harvests [2]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].