| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9374 | -4 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2487 | -57 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 206 | 28 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 192 | -40 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 305440 | 12513 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 637424 | 60942 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 34744 | 8830 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -50162 | -12921 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 0 | -1707 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | -31218 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 707.7 | -4 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5328 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed futures market shows a trend where near - term contracts are weakening and far - term contracts are slightly firmer. The overall market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed meal has increased significantly, and the supply is likely to be tight in the later period. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing the market price. The decline in soybean meal prices also drags down rapeseed meal futures prices [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the cost increase due to the tariff hike on Canadian rapeseed oil restricts future imports, and the supply - side pressure has weakened. But high inventory continues to restrain prices. The weakening of palm oil also affects rapeseed oil, leading to a decline in its price [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9216 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2548 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 701 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 149 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Position volumes: The position volume of the rapeseed oil main contract is 280976 lots, up 4397 lots; the position volume of the rapeseed meal main contract is 565683 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 18650 lots, down 3859 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 46891 lots, up 2077 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The rapeseed oil warehouse receipt quantity is 1357 sheets, unchanged; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipt quantity is 15700 sheets, up 1700 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8210 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9387.5 yuan/ton, down 18.75 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5143.56 yuan/ton, up 128.78 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.67, up 0.09; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 93 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 48 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 640 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 700 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 13.5 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 1.45 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 30 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed is 28.52%, up 9.86 percentage points; the monthly import rapeseed crushing profit is 8 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal area rapeseed oil inventory is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the coastal area rapeseed meal inventory is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 64.04 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 44.67 million tons, down 0.79 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 6.6 million tons, up 1 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 23 million tons, up 7.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 3.83 million tons, up 0.54 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 5.35 million tons, down 0.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons; the monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 23.08%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 23.16%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.12%, down 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.13%, down 0.41 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.19%, down 0.31 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.63%, down 0.99 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.98%, down 0.56 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.02%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the Canadian rapeseed futures market on Monday, most contracts declined, with the benchmark contract down 0.9%. The near - term contracts weakened, and the far - term contracts were slightly firmer. The prices of rapeseed futures ranged from a decline of 6.3 Canadian dollars to an increase of 3.6 Canadian dollars [2]. - South American rapeseed has a bumper harvest, which pressures international soybean prices. The expected reduction in the planting area of new - season US soybeans may increase the expectation of weather premiums. In the domestic market, before the festival, the soybean clearance time affected the operation of some oil mills, leading to a shortage of soybean meal supply. However, high prices have led to downstream resistance, and the spot price of soybean meal has dropped significantly. After the festival, the supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose [2].

剧，短线参与为主。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 菜籽系产业日报 2025-04-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9333 | -173 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2641 | -43 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 187 321336 | 32 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -29808 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 242 557196 | -10 -8955 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 17062 | -14629 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -22485 | -18944 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1357 | -277 ...