金银价格在创历史新高后剧烈震荡，强势表现也传导至基金市场。 1月27日，易方达黄金主题LOF公告，1月28日起暂停A类人民币份额申购及定期定额投资业务。Wind数据显示，截至1月25日，27只商品型黄金 ETF或联接基金今年以来回报率均超过13%，近一年回报率均超过66%。 就在1月26日晚间，国投瑞银白银期货基金发布公告，为保持投资者利益，将于1月28日起暂停申购。 校对： 陶谦 就在2025年，黄金白银相关商品型基金已经成为年度市场"明星"，有的甚至以近翻倍的惊人收益吸引了市场目光。有业内人士表示，以黄金和白 银为代表的贵金属，近期已展现出强势表现，2026年能否持续走强，还需要密切观察美联储降息周期的波动情况以及国际政治经济格局的演进趋 势。对于其他能源金属以及原油等品种，与全球整体经济增速的关联度更加紧密，因此对其保持中性态度。 1月27日，在美国总统特朗普关税威胁及美国政府停摆风险引发的避险情绪推动下，黄金和白银价格在短暂回调后延续强劲涨势，其中黄金价格 连续第二天维持在每盎司5000美元上方。 本轮贵金属迅猛涨势主要受"贬值交易"逻辑驱动：投资者因担忧主权货币及债券价值，正持续抛售相关资产以寻求保 ...

金价上涨，连续第二天保持在每盎司5000美元上方。美元走软助其延续了地缘政治风险和投资者抛售主 权债券及货币所推动的迅猛涨势。 金价周二一度上涨1.84%，连续第七个交易日走高。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要上调韩国商品关税， 而且周一美元因为对美国或助日本稳定日元汇率的猜测升温而重挫，增强了大多数买家的黄金购买力。 白银价格一度上涨逾9%。 金价这两年来上涨不止一倍的惊人走势，有力证明了黄金作为市场恐慌情绪指标的历史地位。刚刚交出 1979年以来最佳年度成绩单的黄金，自新的一年开始以来又上涨了17%，这主要归功于所谓的"贬值交 易" —— 投资者抛售货币和国债。上周日本国债大跌，是投资者反对大规模财政支出的最新例证。 最近几周，包括威胁吞并格陵兰、军事干预委内瑞拉，以及对美联储独立性发起的新一轮攻击，特朗普 政府的行动也震动了市场。在威胁韩国之前，特朗普还警告加拿大说，或将征收100%的关税。 欧洲最大资产管理公司东方汇理称，美国与其他国家日增隔阂，促使许多投资者减持美元资产，转而配 置黄金。"长远来看，黄金是对抗贬值的好工具，也是维持一定购买力的好选择，"其首席投资官Vincent Mortier在接受采访 ...

11:20 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1086.53 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2026-01-2 截至1月26日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1086.53吨，较前一个交易日维持不变。1月26日，地缘政治紧张局势持续，再加上特朗普政策 不确定性，引发的"信用贬值"交易升温等因素综合作用，现货黄金又暴涨了，历史性突破5000美元/盎司，最高更是狂飙至5110.43美元/盎司，随后有所回 落，收于5008.35美元/盎司，涨25.44美元/0.51%。 分析认为，此轮狂飙由多重全球动荡驱动：特朗普政策的高度不确定性、多地地缘政治紧张局势升级以及市场对央行独立性的担忧，共同促使投资者在"错 失恐惧症"推动下大举涌入黄金等避险资产。在全球避险情绪的猛烈驱动下，投资者正以前所未有的规模涌入这一传统避险资产，忽视高位，显示出强烈的 买入动能。 基本面消息，近期，美国政府的一系列举动——包括对美联储独立性的攻击、吞并格陵兰岛的威胁以及对委内瑞拉的军事干预——极大地惊扰了市场。这种 不确定性加剧了所谓的"贬值交易"（debas ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $5,415.70 per troy ounce on Thursday, up 2.1% from Wednesday’s closing price of $5,303.60. This was gold’s first open above $5,400 per ounce, and the yellow metal’s price then surged to $5,586.20 in early trading before pulling back to about $5,500. With this latest surge, gold’s year-to-date gain is now over 26%. The precious metal’s value has benefited from the debasement trade, which is the shift of money out of currencies and government securities and into tangible phys ...

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility on Monday due to geopolitical risks, the U.S. fiscal deadlock, and threats of currency market intervention, leading to intense risk-off trading [1] - The market displayed extreme risk-averse characteristics, with a substantial influx of funds into precious metals as investor confidence in sovereign bonds and fiat currencies waned [1] Precious Metals - Spot gold rose over 1% during the day, reaching $5,037 per ounce, while spot silver briefly surpassed $106 per ounce, with an intraday increase of nearly 3% [1][2] - The recent surge in gold prices reflects deep-seated market fears, with gold prices doubling over the past two years and increasing by 15% this year alone [15] Currency Market - The Japanese yen rebounded sharply amid expectations of intervention, with the dollar index falling by 0.52% [1][6] - The dollar against the yen dropped by 0.89% to 154.32, currently trading around 154.77, while the euro against the dollar rose by 0.52% to 1.1888 [1][6] Risk Assets - Risk assets faced pressure, with Nikkei index futures initially down by 2.6%, Nasdaq futures dropping over 1%, and S&P 500 futures declining by 0.75% [1][11] - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31 has surged to 75%, driven by internal fiscal instability and recent events affecting budget negotiations [16] Natural Gas Market - U.S. natural gas futures prices surged by 16% due to a winter storm impacting the region, which is expected to increase heating demand [1][17]

现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司5000美元大关，延续了此前由美国总统唐纳德·特朗普重塑国际关系以及 投资者抛售主权债券和货币所推动的迅猛涨势。 周一早盘交易中，金价大幅上涨，上周已累计上涨8.5%，原因是美元走软提振了对贵金属的需求。作 为衡量美元汇率的关键指标——彭博美元即期指数下跌1.6%，创下5月以来最大单周跌幅，这使得黄金 和白银对大多数买家来说更加便宜。白银价格周一亦创纪录新高。 周一早盘交易中，金价大幅上涨，上周已累计上涨8.5%，原因是美元走软提振了对贵金属的需求。作 为衡量美元汇率的关键指标——彭博美元即期指数下跌1.6%，创下5月以来最大单周跌幅，这使得黄金 和白银对大多数买家来说更加便宜。白银价格周一亦创纪录新高。 金价创纪录的上涨——过去两年上涨了一倍多——推动了黄金作为衡量市场恐惧程度的历史性角色。继 1979年以来的最佳年度表现之后，年迄今金价又攀升了16%，原因是地缘政治风险进一步加剧了所谓的 贬值交易，即投资者纷纷撤离外汇和美国国债市场。 最近几周，美国政府的行动——攻击美联储的独立性、威胁吞并格陵兰岛、对委内瑞拉进行军事干预 ——令市场惶惶不安。对于希望驾驭这种不确定性的投资者来说 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, while also highlighting the potential for further increases in gold prices due to changing market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have reached a record high of over $4,960 per ounce, with a potential weekly increase of over 7% [4][9]. - The price of gold has increased by 15% since the beginning of the year, influenced by geopolitical risks and criticism of the Federal Reserve by President Trump [4][9]. - The weakening of the US dollar, which has dropped by 0.8% this week, has made gold more affordable for buyers [4][9]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Large institutional investors, such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, are increasing their allocation to non-correlated assets like gold to hedge against risks in a high-valuation global stock market and low bond yields [4][9]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price forecast from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce, citing increased demand from private investors and central banks [5][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investor optimism is driving short-term price increases, but sudden shifts in market sentiment due to global events could reverse this trend [5][11]. - The market is currently experiencing overbought conditions, indicating a potential for price corrections, and investors are advised to wait for pullback opportunities [5][11]. - The core macroeconomic logic driving gold prices upward remains unchanged and may even strengthen, suggesting a high probability of new record highs after necessary adjustments [6][11].

Group 1 - The geopolitical crisis in Greenland and the collapse of the Japanese government bond market have significantly increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to gold prices reaching an all-time high of $4,819.75 per ounce [2][3] - The crisis has exacerbated the divide between the US and Europe, with European leaders expressing strong opposition to US President Trump's intentions regarding Greenland, raising concerns about potential trade wars [3] - The collapse of the Japanese bond market, triggered by Prime Minister Kishi's tax cut promises, has led to a surge in bond yields and heightened volatility, prompting investors to avoid currencies and government bonds [5][6] Group 2 - The US and Japanese finance ministers are working together to stabilize the market amid rising volatility, with reassurances that the recent bond market fluctuations are not directly linked to geopolitical tensions [9] - There are concerns that European investors may sell US bonds in response to the Greenland situation, but US Treasury Secretary has dismissed these claims as unfounded [9][10] - Experts have differing views on the future of precious metals, with some believing that gold still has significant upside potential, while cautioning against investing in silver at current levels due to its recent price surge [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is facing significant challenges, leading to a strong performance in precious metals like gold and silver, which are seen as safe-haven assets. Analysts predict a potential cyclical bull market for these metals in the near future [1][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - On January 21, spot gold reached a new high of $4862.46 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.1%, while platinum also hit a record high of $2511.10 per ounce [3][4]. - Silver prices approached their historical peak, trading at $94.48 per ounce, just shy of the $95.87 record set earlier [3]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. policy are driving the demand for gold, with expectations that prices could reach $5000 per ounce sooner than anticipated [3][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds has raised concerns about fiscal stability, contributing to a trend of "devaluation trading" where investors seek alternatives to currency and government bonds [4]. - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with Poland's central bank planning to buy up to 150 tons, increasing its reserves to 700 tons, which supports gold prices [5]. - The copper market is also experiencing significant price increases, with LME copper contracts showing a premium of $100, the highest since 2021, indicating strong demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Commodity Cycle - Market experts believe that a long-term commodity cycle is beginning, with precious metals like gold and silver expected to continue performing well due to structural factors such as increased government spending and geopolitical uncertainties [6][7]. - The demand for industrial metals, particularly copper, is anticipated to rise due to factors like AI-related capital expenditures and overall economic growth expectations [7]. - Investment strategies are shifting towards gold as a defensive asset, with institutions increasingly favoring it over traditional government bonds due to concerns about their performance in negative scenarios [8][10]. Group 4: Silver and Other Precious Metals - Silver is expected to benefit from the same investment logic as gold, although it carries higher volatility and risks [9]. - Other precious metals like palladium are also considered, but they come with specific risks related to their production locations [9].

Group 1 - The situation in Greenland has heightened demand for gold, pushing prices to a historic high of $4,780 per ounce, reflecting increasing global economic uncertainty [1] - President Donald Trump's firm stance on acquiring Greenland has intensified geopolitical risk concerns, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - The potential for increased tariffs on European countries has further escalated market uncertainty, driving investors towards gold [3] Group 2 - The collapse of the Japanese government bond market has raised concerns about the fiscal health of major economies, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [4] - A shift towards "devaluation trades" has become a mainstream strategy, with investors reallocating assets to gold as a hard currency amid rising currency devaluation risks [5] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation report, which could significantly influence future Federal Reserve interest rate policies and, consequently, gold prices [6]