以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者刘诗瑶 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 复 盘 2008 年 全 球 金 融 危 机 、 2020 年 新 冠 疫 情 、 2023 年 硅 谷 银 行 倒 闭 三 次 典 型 流 动 性 危 机 引 发 的 金 价 波 动，行情演变呈现清晰的阶段性规律：阶段 1）危机发酵初期，黄金终极避险属性凸显，价格逆势上涨；阶段 2）若政策干预滞后，金融机构面临集中赎回与保证金补充压力，将抛售股票、公司债及流动性良好的黄金等各 类可变现资产，金价通常出现 15%-25% 的跌幅；阶段 3）美联储等监管机构启动大规模救市后，市场流动性 修复，金价逐步掉头回升。 值得关注的是，历经三次大型流动性冲击后，美联储的危机应对能力持续升级 —— 干预反应速度更快、政策 工具箱更丰富、框架设计更精准，从 2008 年的滞后应对，到 2020 年的系统性维稳，再到 2023 年的结构性 精准纠偏，流动性危机对市场的负面影响持续收敛。2023 年硅谷银行倒闭事件中，已不再出现明显的阶段 2 ...

Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment report has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold during the December meeting, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][4] - Gold prices are currently consolidating, with a stronger dollar making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3] - The U.S. labor report showed a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50,000 [4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the employment report is favorable for both hawkish and dovish factions, with many Fed officials leaning towards maintaining interest rates [5] - Swap traders see only a 40% chance of a rate cut next month, down from previous expectations of a 25 basis point cut [6] - Despite a pullback from historical highs, gold has risen over 50% year-to-date, supported by ETF inflows and central bank purchases [6] Group 3 - Geopolitical developments, particularly regarding Ukraine's peace plan, are also being monitored by traders [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in late October did not weaken the US dollar, which instead reversed its declining trend, with the ICE dollar index reaching a high of 100.25 points, the highest since early August [1][2] - The increase in US Treasury yields across the board, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.1046% and the 30-year yield to 4.6879%, indicates a shift in market sentiment towards the dollar [1][2] - The ongoing US government shutdown has significantly impacted market liquidity, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) surging by 18 basis points, the largest single-day increase since March 2020 [3] Group 2 - The trade "truce" between the US and China is expected to support the dollar by stabilizing trade policies and tariffs for at least a year, which may help control inflation [4] - The economic challenges faced by the Eurozone and Japan, including low growth and internal political issues, limit their currencies' ability to compete with the dollar [5] - The Trump administration's focus on maintaining the dollar's international status includes providing liquidity support to countries like Argentina and encouraging the use of the dollar in Latin America [6][7]

Core Insights - Tether is hiring two top global precious metals traders from HSBC to build a substantial gold reserve and challenge existing market leaders [1][2] - Tether has accumulated one of the largest gold reserves globally, valued at over $12 billion as of September, and is a significant player in the gold market [2] - The rise in gold prices this year has benefited Tether, driven by central bank purchases and concerns over sovereign debt [3] Group 1: Company Developments - Tether plans to expand its gold reserves significantly, leveraging its financial strength and aiming to become a major competitor in the gold market [1] - The company has reported an average weekly increase of over 1 ton of gold over the past year, making it one of the largest gold buyers [2] - Tether's flagship stablecoin, USDT, is backed by a reserve that includes gold and U.S. Treasury securities, with a market capitalization of approximately $20 billion for its gold-backed stablecoin, XAUT [2] Group 2: Market Context - The departure of key traders from HSBC represents a setback for the bank's precious metals business amid increasing competition for talent in the sector [2] - Gold prices have seen their best annual performance since 1979, prompting various financial entities to expand their precious metals teams [2] - Tether's profitability has surged, with $13 billion in earnings last year and an expected $15 billion this year, comparable to top Wall Street investment banks [2]

Core Insights - Tether is hiring two top global precious metals traders from HSBC to build a significant gold reserve and challenge existing market leaders [1] - Tether has accumulated one of the largest gold reserves globally, which is part of its over $180 billion in reserve assets [1][2] - The company has become one of the largest buyers of gold in the market, with its latest report indicating over $12 billion in gold holdings as of September [2] Group 1 - Tether's flagship stablecoin, USDT, is backed by various reserve assets, including gold and U.S. Treasury securities, with a 1:1 exchange rate to the dollar [2] - The company reported a profit of $13 billion from its reserve assets last year and expects to earn around $15 billion this year [2] - Tether's growth is attributed to the rising gold prices driven by central bank purchases and concerns over sovereign debt and currency devaluation [3] Group 2 - The departure of the two traders from HSBC is a setback for the bank's precious metals business amid increasing competition for talent in the sector [2] - Tether's gold reserve growth has been significant, averaging over 1 ton of gold added weekly over the past year [2] - Tether has also invested in other segments of the gold supply chain, including royalty companies [2]

Core Insights - The decline of gold is evident as Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of recovery, with gold dropping over 10.60% to a low of $3,915, marking its largest seven-day decline since April [2] - Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of $839 million, while gold ETFs have experienced outflows of $4.1 billion [2][7] - Historical patterns suggest that gold may rebound by 8.3% following significant declines [15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices coincides with a 6.70% increase in Bitcoin, highlighting a divergence as the U.S. and China approach a trade agreement [4] - Following President Trump's comments on a successful meeting with Xi Jinping, which included a reduction in tariffs related to fentanyl, risk appetite has improved, potentially leading traders to shift back to Bitcoin [5] - Since October 20, gold-backed ETFs have seen outflows of approximately 1.064 million ounces (nearly $4.1 billion), including the largest single-day withdrawal in over six months [7] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's technical indicators show strong support around $101,790 [10] - Despite the current pullback, gold remains in a bull market, supported above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) [12] - Historical data indicates that gold typically rebounds 4%-33% after bouncing off the 50-day EMA, suggesting potential for recovery [12] Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts at JPMorgan predict that Bitcoin could reach $165,000 by 2025, asserting that it remains undervalued compared to gold [12] - If historical patterns hold, gold may revisit the $4,200-$4,250 range by December, reaffirming its broader upward trend [17] - Maintaining above the 50-day EMA could allow gold to reach HSBC's target of $5,000 by 2026 [17]

Core Viewpoint - After three days of selling, gold prices rebounded, with spot gold rising to $4010 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 1.5% increase, while silver regained the $48 per ounce mark, up about 2.5% [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which typically increases the attractiveness of non-yielding precious metals as borrowing costs decrease [3] - Gold previously surged to a historical high of over $4380 per ounce but experienced a significant pullback due to rapid price increases and reduced safe-haven demand following positive signals in U.S.-China trade negotiations [3][4] - Despite recent corrections, gold has accumulated a rise of approximately 50% year-to-date, driven by central bank purchases and investors seeking to avoid sovereign debt and currency risks [4] Group 2: Investment Trends - Recent outflows from gold ETFs have weakened some support for gold prices, with a notable $1 billion net withdrawal from State Street's SPDR Gold ETF, marking the largest single-day outflow since April [4] - The total holdings in gold ETFs saw the largest decline in six months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4] - HSBC forecasts that gold prices will fluctuate between $3700 and $4050 for the remainder of the year, with a year-end target of $3950, and predicts a peak above $4400 in the first half of 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash in the gold market, with a 6.3% drop marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, was widely anticipated and did not trigger panic among investors, instead sparking a buying frenzy among retail investors [1][3]. Market Reaction - Despite the significant drop, global retail investors rushed to buy gold, viewing the price decline as a buying opportunity, with reports of high demand from dealers in Singapore and the U.S. [7][8][9]. - Analysts generally maintain a positive outlook, considering the price drop a "healthy correction" necessary to clear market excesses and ensure the sustainability of the bull market [10][11]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and Morgan Stanley suggest that the recent price drop will be absorbed by other buyers, including central banks, leading to limited overall price declines [11]. - The core drivers of the current gold bull market include significant purchases by central banks, concerns over unsustainable sovereign debt levels, and increased participation from retail investors [11]. Contrarian Views - Some analysts, like Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, question the solidity of the "devaluation trade" supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields, a budget surplus in September, and the resilience of the U.S. dollar index [12][13]. - Even bullish analysts acknowledge risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, which could impact the bullish outlook for gold [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent gold market crash did not trigger panic but instead ignited a buying frenzy among retail investors globally, while most precious metals analysts maintained their core views [1][3][11] Market Reaction - The gold market experienced a significant drop, with prices plunging 6.3% on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day decline since 2013 [5] - Retail investors from Singapore to the U.S. reported a surge in buying activity, viewing the price drop as a buying opportunity [7][9][10] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and Heraeus Precious Metals had previously warned about an overextended market, indicating that the crash was anticipated [4][11] - Most analysts believe this correction is a healthy market adjustment to clear out excesses, with predictions of a return to a more robust upward trajectory [11] Underlying Factors - The driving forces behind the current gold bull market include significant purchases by central banks, concerns over unsustainable sovereign debt levels, and increased participation from retail investors [11] - However, some analysts, including Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, question the solidity of the "devaluation trade" logic supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields and a budget surplus in September [12][13] Risks and Historical Context - Even bullish analysts like Gregory Shearer from JPMorgan acknowledge risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, drawing parallels to the 2011 gold price peak that took years to recover from [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash in the gold market, with a 6.3% drop marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, was largely anticipated by market professionals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The crash did not trigger panic; instead, it sparked a buying frenzy among retail investors globally, who viewed the price drop as a buying opportunity [3][5]. - Reports from dealers in Singapore and the U.S. indicated a significant increase in demand, with BullionStar's CEO noting it was their busiest day ever [5][6]. Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Most precious metals analysts maintained their bullish outlook, viewing the price drop as a healthy correction to clear market excesses [7]. - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and JPMorgan Chase expressed confidence that the price would stabilize and return to a robust upward trajectory, with JPMorgan predicting an average gold price exceeding $5,000 by Q4 next year [7]. Group 3: Concerns and Counterarguments - Despite the optimism, some analysts, including Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, raised concerns about the sustainability of the "devaluation trade" supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields and a budget surplus [9][11]. - Hartnett highlighted that the current market conditions may not support the prevailing narrative of shorting the dollar and going long on gold [9]. - Even bullish analysts acknowledged risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, which could impact the gold bull market [11].