日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正：等待贸易协议成文可能导致关税削减措施被推迟。 ...

当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在苏格兰举行了会晤。会后，特朗普表 示，美国已与欧盟达成新贸易协议，对欧盟输美商品征收15%的关税。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩称，15%税率是欧委会能够达成的最佳结果。此外，钢铁和铝、芯片、烈酒三 大关键领域的关税协议仍待定。 而且以法德为代表的欧盟诸国，一直是想脱离美国的掌控，与美国进行对等谈判。之前在支援乌克兰问 题上，特朗普单方面和俄罗斯谈，断供乌克兰。但欧盟不认这个邪，单方面支援乌克兰，结果乌克兰也 没崩溃，照样打下去了。 理论上如今在关税问题上，欧盟也效仿中国，对美国丝毫不让，那结果或许也会博得一个公平的关税税 率。但冯德莱恩此次对美谈判，直接"缴械投降"，15%的关税虽说不算离谱，但也是凭空白给美国人的 利润。而且后面的附加条件更是要人老命。 但这还没完，特朗普称："欧盟还承诺购买美国7500亿美元的能源产品，并在美追加投资6000亿美元。 此外，欧盟将大规模购买美国军事装备"。 这就是冯德莱恩和特朗普谈后的欧盟与美国对等关税谈判结果。结果出来后，欧盟各国领导人瞬间坐不 住了，直接开喷。 匈牙利总理欧尔班在28日播出的网络节目中表示，欧盟与美 ...

【环球网报道】韩国《朝鲜日报》8月2日报道称，美国于当地时间7月30日宣布与韩国达成贸易协议，然而，在是否 开放包括大米、牛肉等农产品市场的具体细节上，韩美双方各执一词，表述出现分歧，引发外界关注。 报道称，韩国经济副总理兼企划财政部长具润哲30日表示，"经过我们谈判代表团坚持不懈的说明，美方理解了韩国 农业的敏感性，同意不进一步开放市场。" 然而报道称，与韩方提到的"不会进一步开放"说法不同，美国总统特朗普在对外宣布协议达成时表示，韩国将向美 国开放农产品市场。白宫新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特31日更进一步称，韩国将为美国大米提供具有"历史意义"的市场 准入权。 对此，韩政府方面持续予以否认，称这是美政府的"政治修辞"。具润哲表示，"大米市场开放根本没有被讨论。"韩国 总统府发言人姜由桢也表示，"美方可能存在一些误解。"韩国农林畜产食品部部长宋美玲则称，我们认为那只是出 于政治目的的表述。 另据韩国《中央日报》补充，韩国总统办公室政策室长金容范此前也在记者会上明确表示，"双方就不再开放包括大 米和牛肉在内的农畜产品市场达成一致。"报道称，这一说法进一步确认了大米和牛肉被排除在外。 韩美达成贸易协议后，韩国国内舆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the United States and South Korea has sparked significant domestic criticism in South Korea, with concerns over concessions made by the South Korean government [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The trade agreement includes a 15% tariff on South Korean products exported to the U.S., while U.S. products will not face tariffs in South Korea [1]. - South Korea is set to invest $350 billion in the U.S. and purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas and other energy products from the U.S. [1]. - South Korea will fully open its trade to the U.S. and accept U.S. agricultural products, including automobiles [1]. Group 2: Domestic Reactions - The largest opposition party in South Korea, the People Power Party, argues that the agreement has led to excessive concessions, potentially harming South Korea's interests [1]. - Experts have noted that despite the tariff levels being comparable to those faced by Japan and the EU, the agreement is still seen as detrimental to South Korea, which had expected lower tariffs under the existing free trade agreement [2]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the opening of South Korea's agricultural market, particularly in relation to rice and beef, where the South Korean government has sought to maintain restrictions due to food security concerns [1].

Group 1: Dollar Index - The possibility of Trump firing Powell has decreased, alleviating pressure on the dollar [7] - The U.S. Treasury's TGA financing is accelerating, leading to tightening liquidity which may support the dollar [9] - The dollar index has potential for further rebound, with a first target around 101 [12] Group 2: Euro - The euro is experiencing weakness due to a divergence in economic fundamentals between the U.S. and the Eurozone [19][21] - A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has temporarily avoided a large-scale trade dispute, but the 15% tariff still poses risks [21] - The euro's effective exchange rate has reached a level that could negatively impact Eurozone export growth [21][23] Group 3: Pound Sterling - The UK economic surprise index has entered a downward cycle, increasing rate cut expectations and pressuring the pound against the euro [33] - The UK public sector net borrowing in June was £20.7 billion, exceeding expectations [37] - The Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts due to conflicting economic signals [38] Group 4: Japanese Yen - The yen has depreciated significantly, driven by a reduction in long positions [47] - Expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased following a trade agreement with the U.S. [47] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the yen's depreciation expected to continue until a rate hike is confirmed [47]

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, reached on July 27, aims to address tariffs, energy procurement, and investment, temporarily avoiding a potential high-intensity tariff conflict, but raises concerns about its sustainability and impact on European competitiveness [1][2][3]. Tariff and Investment Summary - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, replacing a previously threatened 30% punitive tariff, while the EU commits to investing $600 billion in the U.S. and purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over three years [2]. - The agreement includes zero tariffs on strategic materials like aircraft parts and key chemicals, but maintains existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, with unresolved issues regarding spirits [2]. European Internal Reactions - There is significant dissent within Europe regarding the agreement, with various leaders expressing concerns about its fairness and long-term implications for European economic strength [3]. - French Prime Minister Béru criticized the deal as a capitulation to the U.S., while German Chancellor Merz acknowledged the negative impact on Germany's economy [3]. Economic Implications - The 15% tariff is expected to weaken the competitiveness of EU exports in the U.S., particularly affecting key industries such as automotive and cosmetics, with potential long-term economic costs for Europe [4]. - A report from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy predicts a 0.13 percentage point loss in Germany's economic growth due to the agreement [4]. Uncertainties and Risks - The agreement contains ambiguities, particularly regarding the steel and aluminum tariffs, and lacks clarity on specific product exemptions, which could lead to future disputes [5]. - The investment commitments from the EU to the U.S. lack detailed terms, raising concerns about potential imbalances and the risk of the U.S. prioritizing its own interests [5]. Internal Discrepancies - The differing interests among EU member states and the lack of supportive policies for the agreement's implementation may create significant obstacles to its approval and execution within the EU [6]. Conclusion - The trade agreement reflects a compromise by Europe under pressure, aiming to stabilize market expectations in the short term, but it risks undermining European autonomy in trade, energy, and investment in the long run [7].

针对特朗普提及的韩国将向美国开放农产品市场，韩国总统办公室政策室长金容范在7月31日召开的记 者会上指出，美方确实强烈要求韩方开放农畜产品市场，但考虑到粮食安全的重要性和农业敏感性，双 方就韩方不再进一步开放大米和牛肉市场达成一致。 韩国国内舆论认为，韩方在这一协议作出过多让步，将蒙受不小损失。《韩民族日报》援引专家分析指 出，此次韩美达成协议后，虽然美国对韩关税水平与日本、欧盟相当，但对于与美国签订自由贸易协定 的韩国来说，这一贸易协议仍令韩国受损。韩国大邱大学经济金融系教授金良姬指出，从韩美自贸协定 角度来看，韩国本应享受更低的关税水平。 （文章来源：新华社） 新华财经首尔8月1日电（记者陈怡孙一然）美国与韩国日前达成贸易协议，但此举在韩国国内引发质疑 和反对声。韩国最大在野党国民力量党认为，急于与美国达成关税协议让韩国在对美大规模投资方面做 出许多让步。 根据韩国产业通商资源部官网7月31日发布的消息，产业通商资源部长官金正官表示，虽然韩美双方已 就大框架达成协议，但部分细节仍需进一步协商。他说，韩国政府将继续以国家利益为重，积极支持韩 国企业提升竞争力。 根据美国总统特朗普的说法，韩国输美产品将适用1 ...

德国总理默茨：将与美国谈判钢铁出口配额 金十数据8月1日讯，德国总理默茨周五表示，欧盟将与美国就钢铁问题进行谈判，重点关注可在不征收 过高关税的情况下出口的配额。双方上个月达成了一项贸易协议，协议中，大多数产品的关税定为 15%，但某些行业的谈判仍在继续，其中包括钢铁和铝，这些产品的关税为50%。默茨表示，现在的任 务是制定"细节"。默茨称，该协议对整个欧洲工业来说都是"痛苦的"，但他表示欧盟还没有能力引发全 面的贸易争端。他说："那只会有输家，而最大的输家可能是我们欧洲人。" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic asphalt market fundamentals weakened marginally. Supply pressure increased due to the expected third - quarter terminal rush and high asphalt cracking spreads, while demand decreased because of weather - related construction disruptions. Socially - held inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. Macro improvements had limited support for the market. Cost - driven factors led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices, which in turn drove the asphalt market. Currently, the asphalt market lacks a core driving factor and is mainly influenced by crude oil. Given the medium - to long - term expectation of crude oil supply surplus, the asphalt price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. For trading strategies, pay attention to the pressure range of 3700 - 3750 for the BU2510 contract, and consider short - selling if US sanctions on Russia are lower than market expectations [69]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In July, the asphalt futures price fluctuated widely. On one hand, the asphalt fundamentals showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Asphalt production continued to rise as refinery operating rates increased, while demand weakened due to the typhoon season in the southern region. Social inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. On the other hand, the marginal improvement in the supply and demand of crude oil supported oil prices. In the context of less prominent fundamental contradictions, the cost was the main influencing factor for asphalt prices [6]. 02 Macro Analysis - **Trade Agreements**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and Chinese counter - measures for 90 days. The US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, etc., and also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil. In the short term, trade tensions were effectively alleviated, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the long - term impact on the global economy remains uncertain [8]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed officials opposed the decision, indicating a weakening of internal consensus. Fed Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut decreased. The interest - rate decision and Powell's speech added uncertainty to the future interest - rate adjustment rhythm [12]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: US President Trump set a deadline for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and threatened sanctions if the goal was not achieved. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about the supply side of the market and supported the recent strengthening of oil prices [13]. 03 Supply - Demand Analysis - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the market expects a continued increase in September to reach the target of restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of production. The market has fully priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. Additionally, Kazakhstan's production exceeded the quota, raising concerns about OPEC+ internal price competition [16][17]. - **IEA, EIA, and OPEC Forecasts**: In July, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different expectations for global crude oil supply and demand growth. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day, maintaining a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting demand improvement due to the easing of global trade tensions [19]. - **Domestic Asphalt Supply**: In July, domestic asphalt production was 2.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 234,000 tons or 10.5%. The operating rate of domestic refineries increased, with significant increases in the East China and Shandong regions. The asphalt cracking spread fluctuated, and the expected third - quarter terminal rush demand drove the refinery operating rate to rise, increasing supply pressure [21][29]. - **Domestic Asphalt Demand**: In July, domestic asphalt shipments were 1.867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 88,000 tons. Rainy weather restricted terminal construction, weakening demand. As the rainy season ended, shipments increased week - on - week. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased, but the long - term growth space is limited [30][33]. - **Import and Export**: In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. Exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 11.53% year - on - year, while cumulative exports increased by 53.36% year - on - year [40][43]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 700,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The social inventory was 1.343 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased slightly due to lower production and increased terminal construction, while social inventory increased slightly due to weak demand and remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 1, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 551.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 76 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 57.25 as of July 31. The asphalt cracking spread weakened, and the basis first strengthened and then weakened, indicating weak price support from the demand side [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "strong reality, weak expectation", with short - term support factors and long - term suppression logic coexisting. In the short term, factors such as the peak consumption season, improved macro - environment, and OPEC+ actual production increase lower than planned support oil prices. In the long term, OPEC+ is expected to fully release the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand will weaken, leading to a long - term structural surplus. The proposed US sanctions on Russia may cause short - term supply concerns and oil price rebounds, but the actual supply reduction may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure of WTI crude oil prices at $70 - 72 per barrel, and consider short positions if sanctions are lower than market expectations [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, oil prices first fluctuated widely and then rose. The "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern of crude oil, the expected peak consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the decline in EIA crude oil inventories supported oil prices. Although OPEC+ planned to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, the market had already priced it in, and the actual increase was much smaller. The threat of US sanctions on Russia also supported oil price rebounds. However, in the fourth quarter, the shift from peak to off - peak consumption and OPEC+ production increases may lead to supply surpluses and limit oil price increases [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Trade Agreements - The short - term trade tension has been alleviated as the US reached trade agreements with China, the EU, and Japan. However, the long - term impact on the global economy is still uncertain. The US also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil [6]. 3.2.2 Fed's Interest Rate Decision - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. There were two dissenting votes advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped from about 65% to below 50% [10]. 3.2.3 Geopolitical Tensions - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine by August 8. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about supply disruptions and supported oil prices [11]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. It is expected to continue increasing production in September to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target. However, Kazakhstan's failure to cut production as promised may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [14][15]. 3.3.2 Forecasts from Different Institutions - In July, IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts [17]. 3.3.3 Supply from Different Regions - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 221,000 barrels per day in June, mainly due to Saudi Arabia's production increase. Non - OPEC production increased by 129,000 barrels per day, mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. US crude oil production decreased by 120,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, and the number of oil rigs also decreased [19][21][24]. 3.3.4 Demand from Different Regions - China's apparent crude oil consumption increased by 3% in June. However, China's manufacturing PMI decreased in July. In the US, refinery utilization rates increased, but the manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and the Chicago PMI continued to decline [32][38][39]. 3.3.5 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels in the week ending July 25. Although the seasonal peak may drive inventory reduction, the reduction space is limited [48].