智通财经6月6日电，欧洲央行管委穆勒表示，可以对目前通胀水平感到满意，同意拉加德的观点，即 （降息）周期已接近尾声。 ...

贝莱德CEO芬克：关税措施可能在未来几个月内导致通胀水平上升。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that further escalation of trade tensions in the coming months will lead to economic growth and inflation levels falling below baseline forecasts [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's government is aggressively lowering rice prices, aiming to reduce the price of 5 kg of rice to 2000 yen, which is 47% lower than the latest price published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries[5] - As of May 30, the speculative net long position in yen has decreased to 164,000 contracts, an 8.4% drop from the peak in early May, marking five consecutive weeks of decline[10] - The US leading economic index fell to -4% in April, the lowest level since October of the previous year, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs may be less than expected[13] Group 2: Market Trends - Overseas investors net sold Japanese government bonds exceeding 1 trillion yen in May, totaling 1.6 trillion yen over four weeks[7][9] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 5.8%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating a significant excess return compared to domestic 10-year government bonds[19] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is 23.3, below the 16-year average, suggesting an increased attractiveness of stocks relative to fixed income assets[30] Group 3: Credit and Financing - As of May, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial bank loans in the US reached 3.9%, the highest since October 2023, supporting corporate output and potentially alleviating upward pressure on unemployment[16] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap was -25 basis points as of May 30, indicating a loosening of the offshore dollar financing environment following the reduction of tariff impacts[25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is affected by repeated tariff policies and market sentiment is weak. The copper price is under pressure due to cooling demand, but the smelting end is tight and the macro - environment is mixed, so the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to whether the US economic data tonight will bring changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened high and closed slightly lower today. The US federal court stopped most of Trump's tariffs, but the US appellate court restored them. The market is numb to the repeated tariff policies. The US PCE price index will be announced tonight. The supply is expected to be tight. As of May 23, the TC/RC fees are still negative but the decline has slowed. The domestic refined copper production is at a high level and the supply tension has not been realized. The downstream demand is cooling and the copper price is under pressure, but the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened low, moved low, and fluctuated to close down. The closing price was 77,600. The long positions of the top 20 were 113,430 lots, a decrease of 1,275 lots; the short positions were 119,931 lots, an increase of 137 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was 15 yuan/ton. On May 29, 2025, the LME official price was $9,602/ton, and the spot premium was $39.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot TC was -$44.30/ dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.44 cents/lb [6] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 1,963 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 152,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 180,500 short tons, an increase of 27,900 short tons from the previous period [9]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Nagel indicated that inflation levels may be higher or lower than previously expected [1] Group 1 - The ECB is reassessing its inflation forecasts, suggesting potential volatility in economic conditions [1] - Nagel's comments reflect ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape, which could impact monetary policy decisions [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve, and the performance of various sectors in the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the manufacturing and export sectors. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The Federal Reserve's shift towards a neutral to tight monetary policy is seen as beneficial in the short term, but long-term implications depend on inflation trends. If inflation remains above 2%, policies will tighten; if it falls below, easing may occur [1][5][18]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The 30% new tariffs have severely impacted profit margins for low-end Chinese exporters, while high-end manufacturers can pass on some costs. Even without tariff changes, export data is expected to decline gradually, particularly in May [1][13][14]. - **Real Estate and Consumption Trends**: The long-term outlook for the Chinese real estate market is negative, with structural changes in consumption expected but not leading to significant growth. Traditional stimulus measures are unlikely to yield substantial results in the near term [1][19][21]. - **Market Recovery Post-Tariff**: The market has largely absorbed the impacts of the tariff disputes, with U.S. and Chinese stock markets recovering to pre-tariff levels. Gold prices have shown a reverse correlation with U.S. stocks, influenced by tariff-related capital flows [1][10][20]. - **Economic Data and Trade War Effects**: The first quarter of 2025 showed strong economic data in China, attributed to preemptive orders due to the trade war. However, risks are increasing as data begins to weaken in the second quarter [1][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Sensitivity to Currency Fluctuations**: High-end manufacturers are less sensitive to RMB fluctuations compared to low-end firms, which are more affected by tariff negotiations and currency depreciation [4][23]. - **Expectations for Future Stimulus**: The likelihood of significant stimulus measures in July is low, with a focus on structural changes rather than immediate economic boosts. The real estate sector may see some policy adjustments, but overall economic growth is not expected to rebound sharply [19][21]. - **Gold Market Dynamics**: The gold market's performance in early 2025 was driven by factors such as trade tensions and capital outflows from U.S. equities, rather than central bank purchases [25][26]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile, with no immediate monetary easing anticipated unless economic data deteriorates significantly [24][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, economic performance, and market reactions.

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 14 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 1.01 个百分点至 80.34%， PVC 开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。五一节后，PVC 下游开工有 所回升，但同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 5 月份报价稳定，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。上周社会库存略有 下降，只是目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-3 月份，房地产数据略有 改善，只是同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大。五一假期过后， 30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关 注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销售。目前下游积极性一般，现货跟跌，09 基 差偏低。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同期，近期开工率持续反弹，需求 未实质性改善之前 PVC 压 ...

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘横向波动一段后下行，午后略有回升， 全天窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2506 上涨 0.02%，10 年期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | T2506 下跌 0.01%，5 年期 TF2506 下跌 0.07%，2 年期 TS2506 下跌 0.01%。 【重要资讯】 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 770 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.40%， | | | | | 当日有无逆回购到期，当日实现净投放 770 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：上周五银行间资金市场短期利率较上一交易日下行，DR001 全天加权 平均为 1.49%，上一交易日加权平均 1.53%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.54%，上一交 | | | | | 易日加权平均 1.61%。 3、现券市场：上周五银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日窄幅波动，2 年期国 | | 宏观与金 | | TL、T、 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the market expectation of a 0.15% decline[1] - The average CPI from January to April showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%[1] - April's food prices fell by 0.2% year-on-year, while non-food prices remained stable[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in April dropped by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected 2.8% decline[10] - Production material prices decreased by 3.1%, contributing approximately 2.28 percentage points to the overall PPI decline[10] - The mining industry saw a significant year-on-year price drop of 9.4% in April[10] Group 3: Monthly Trends - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.4%[6] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating slight inflation outside of volatile food and energy prices[6] - The prices of domestic gold jewelry surged by 10.1% month-on-month, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.06 percentage points[6] Group 4: Monetary Policy Implications - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction on May 7, aiming to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[4] - The central bank's first-quarter report emphasized the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key monetary policy consideration[4] - Current economic conditions suggest increased difficulty in achieving expected price targets, necessitating more fiscal policy support[4]