Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the market expectation of a 0.15% decline[1] - The average CPI from January to April showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%[1] - April's food prices fell by 0.2% year-on-year, while non-food prices remained stable[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in April dropped by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected 2.8% decline[10] - Production material prices decreased by 3.1%, contributing approximately 2.28 percentage points to the overall PPI decline[10] - The mining industry saw a significant year-on-year price drop of 9.4% in April[10] Group 3: Monthly Trends - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.4%[6] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating slight inflation outside of volatile food and energy prices[6] - The prices of domestic gold jewelry surged by 10.1% month-on-month, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.06 percentage points[6] Group 4: Monetary Policy Implications - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction on May 7, aiming to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[4] - The central bank's first-quarter report emphasized the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key monetary policy consideration[4] - Current economic conditions suggest increased difficulty in achieving expected price targets, necessitating more fiscal policy support[4]

市场预期的变化 根据CME"美联储观察"工具的最新数据，市场对美联储6月降息的预期显著上升。具体来看，美联储到 6月维持利率不变的概率为37.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 4.9%。这一变化表明，市场对美联储在6月采取降息行动的预期正在增强。 经济数据与政策考量 近期美国经济数据的复杂性增加了市场对美联储利率决策的不确定性。一方面，部分经济指标显示出一 定的增长动力，如就业市场的稳定和消费支出的增加；另一方面，通胀压力的缓解以及全球经济形势的 不确定性使得市场对经济增长的可持续性感到担忧。此外，美国国债收益率的波动以及美元汇率的变化 也对市场预期产生了重要影响。 美联储官员哈马克周四暗示，6月份可能降息。Vatee万腾平台据悉，她呼吁在高度不确定性的情况下对 货币政策保持耐心，如果数据显示有必要采取行动，不排除在6月前改变货币政策的可能性。这一表态 引发了市场的广泛关注，投资者对美联储的降息预期进一步增强。 哈马克的表态与市场反应 哈马克的表态显示出美联储在当前经济形势下的谨慎态度。她强调，在高度不确定性的情况下，对货币 政策保持耐心是必要的。这一表态与近期其他美联储 ...