Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that despite an increase in inflation levels, it is unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] - Pimco economists maintain their predictions regarding Federal Reserve policy and inflation, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with a possibility of discussing a 50 basis point cut [1] - Pimco forecasts a total rate cut of 75 basis points for the year [1] Group 2 - The August CPI data shows a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, up from 2.7% in July [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.8 basis points to 3.545%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.3 basis points to 4.033% [1]

Gold - The U.S. judge has blocked the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, while President Trump has quickly appealed the decision. The Fed nominee Milan has passed the Senate committee test and is expected to be confirmed by the full Senate next Monday [2] - The U.S. August CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.9%, meeting market expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that U.S. inflation is relatively controllable, and the job market is softening, leading to optimistic rate cut expectations. With the Fed's rate cut expectations and doubts about its independence, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain weak, which is favorable for gold prices [2] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows that the market has maintained a relatively high adjustment level in recent trading days, with short-term caution against pullback risks. The 4-hour chart indicates a focus on testing the support level at $3,610 [2] Oil - Recent data from the API and EIA show an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 5, with total crude and refined oil inventories reaching the largest increase since 2023, indicating the end of the U.S. oil consumption peak season and entering a phase of inventory accumulation [4] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.495 million barrels per day, maintaining a slight growth trend for about two months [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that U.S. crude oil production will remain stable in the near term and that exports to Europe will increase, which may negatively impact oil prices. OPEC's production increase will slow down in October, but the overall direction of increased supply will not change, posing a significant obstacle to rising oil prices [5] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows a significant decline in the previous trading day, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating further downside risks for oil prices. The 4-hour chart shows oil prices returning below the 20-day moving average, with short-term bearish sentiment. Key resistance is at $63, while support is at $60 [5] Copper - The daily chart indicates that after a previous pullback, the market found support at the 20-day moving average, and in recent trading days, the market has continued to rebound and closed with bullish candles, suggesting further upward opportunities. Short-term focus is on the support level at $4.56 [7] Nikkei 225 - The daily chart shows a continuation of strong performance, with the previous trading day closing higher with bullish candles, indicating potential for further upward movement. The 4-hour chart shows the market moving higher along the 20-day moving average, with short-term focus on the support level at 44,180 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, corporate earnings have not significantly improved. After repeated digestion of previous policy benefits, market bullish sentiment has cooled. There is a risk of adjustment in stock indices due to profit - taking pressure. Gold has accelerated its short - term rise driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [42]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Gold may face a deep - adjustment risk due to the fading of uncertainties from US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the repeated digestion of the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. Industrial production expansion accelerated, demand improved marginally, but external demand faced significant downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remained weak [3][4]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - **Corporate Earnings**: Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure. They cannot transfer production costs to end - consumers, resulting in a long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits. Some industries are still in the active de - stocking phase, with finished - product inventories continuing to decline [18]. - **Funding and Liquidity**: The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 1.0684 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan [22]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data - **Inflation and Consumption**: The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 2.8%), rising for 3 consecutive months and reaching a new high since February. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. US tariff policies are affecting prices, suppressing consumer confidence and consumption expenditure [28]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold futures' warehouse receipts and inventory have been rising, indicating an increase in physical gold delivery demand and a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - **Stock Indices**: Although the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in July, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, with insufficient demand being the main contradiction. The previous sharp rise in stock index futures was driven by multiple factors such as policies, funds, and sentiment. However, the inflection point of corporate earnings growth has not arrived. As policy benefits are repeatedly digested, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and short - term adjustments are expected [41]. - **Gold**: Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, suggesting that a September interest rate cut is highly likely. The controversy over Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has intensified market concerns about central bank independence, driving up the gold price to a new record high. Attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [41].

Core Insights - Eurozone's annual inflation rate for July stands at 2.0%, unchanged from June and lower than 2.6% in the same month last year [1] - The EU-wide inflation rate for July is recorded at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in June but down from 2.8% a year ago [1] Country-Specific Data - The countries with the lowest annual inflation rates in July are Cyprus (0.1%), France (0.9%), and Ireland (1.6%) [1] - The highest inflation rates are observed in Romania (6.6%), Estonia (5.6%), and Slovakia (4.6%) [1] - Among the 27 member states, 8 countries saw a decrease in inflation rates compared to June, 6 countries remained stable, and 13 countries experienced an increase [1] Category-wise Changes - Service prices increased by 3.2%, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose by 3.3%, while non-energy industrial goods saw a rise of 0.8% [1] - Energy prices decreased by 2.4% [1] Contribution to Inflation - Service prices contributed the most to the Eurozone's annual inflation rate, adding 1.46 percentage points [1] - Food, alcohol, and tobacco contributed 0.63 percentage points, while non-energy industrial goods added 0.18 percentage points [1] - Energy prices continued to decline, reducing the inflation rate by 0.23 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the current economic situation in the U.S., acknowledging a slowdown in overall economic activity while noting a stable job market and low unemployment rates [3] - High inflation remains a significant concern, preventing the Fed from lowering interest rates despite weakening growth momentum [3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had 12 voting members, with 9 supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while 2 members voted for a 25 basis point cut, indicating internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [5] - The differing opinions among Fed members highlight concerns about high inflation versus the potential negative impacts of economic downturns and tariff policies on the U.S. economy [6] - The dissenting votes from two members, both nominated by former President Trump, suggest potential political influences on the Fed's independence and decision-making process [6]

Economic Indicators - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for June showed results warmer than expected, with year-over-year PCE reaching +2.6%, which is 10 basis points higher than anticipated [2][5] - Personal Income increased by +0.3%, exceeding expectations by 10 basis points, while Personal Spending fell to +0.3%, down 10 basis points from expectations [3][4] - The overall PCE Index month-over-month was in line with expectations at +0.3%, following an upwardly revised +0.2% the previous month [4] Job Market - Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly to 218K, marking the first increase in seven weeks, but still significantly lower than the 250K seen in early June [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.946 million, indicating a leveling off after a period of decline [8] - The upcoming Employment Situation report for July is expected to show 100K new jobs, which is a decrease of 47K from the previous month [9] Q2 Earnings Reports - AbbVie reported Q2 earnings of $2.97 per share, surpassing projections of $2.89, with a year-to-date increase of +6.5% [10] - CVS Health exceeded earnings estimates with $1.81 per share, resulting in an earnings beat of +23.13% and a year-to-date increase of +38.8% [10] - Mastercard's earnings of $4.15 per share beat expectations by 10 cents, with a year-to-date increase of +6% [10] - Bristol Myers-Squibb had a notable earnings beat at $1.46 per share, exceeding estimates by +36.45% [11] - International Paper reported a significant earnings drop to $0.20 per share, missing expectations by -47.37% [11] - Sirius XM missed estimates with earnings of 57 cents per share, resulting in a -27.85% earnings surprise [12] Market Outlook - The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) report is expected after the market opens, with no further scheduled announcements [13] - Anticipation surrounds upcoming earnings reports from major companies such as Apple and Amazon, with expectations of modest gains for Apple and high-single-digit growth for Amazon [14]

Core Insights - The U.S. government's tariff policy has led to significant fluctuations in the economy over the past few months, with a projected short-term price increase of 1.8% in the U.S. [1][3] - This increase translates to an average loss of $2,400 per American household by 2025, indicating a substantial economic impact [3] - The current inflation level is nearly double the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, suggesting that the economic outlook may be worse than previously anticipated [3] Economic Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. showed a higher-than-expected increase in June, marking the largest year-on-year rise since February, attributed to price hikes in tariff-sensitive goods such as clothing, appliances, and toys [5] - Economists predict that inflation levels will continue to rise as retailers deplete their stockpiles of goods accumulated before the tariff policy took effect [5]

Core Insights - In June, U.S. rental prices increased by 0.2%, which is lower than the increases of 0.4% in April and 0.3% in May [1] - The overall trend of rental price increases has been gradually slowing over the past three years, which is beneficial for the overall inflation level, as rent accounts for approximately 35% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The improvement in rental data for the month is primarily attributed to a decline in hotel prices, while residential rental prices remain stable and moderate [1] Rental Price Breakdown - The "Owner's Equivalent Rent," which measures the cost of self-owned housing, rose by 0.3%, remaining unchanged from May [1] - The "Primary Residential Rent," which pertains to rental properties, also increased by 0.2%, consistent with the figures from May [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance emphasizes the impact of fiscal policy on current inflation levels and market expectations, highlighting the need for the central bank to understand how various economic agents are affected [1] Group 1 - Fiscal policy is a significant factor influencing inflation and market expectations in Brazil [1] - The central bank's understanding of the effects on different economic agents is crucial for effective policy implementation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that the actual interest rates paid by the Japanese government on its debt have risen more gradually and remain below inflation levels, which has supported the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio [1] Group 1 - The gradual increase in actual interest rates is a key factor in managing Japan's debt levels [1] - The current interest rates being lower than inflation is a significant aspect of the economic environment [1] - The decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively influenced by these factors [1]