Core Insights - Ghana's overall inflation rate decreased to 8.0% in October 2025, marking the lowest level since June 2021 and the tenth consecutive month of decline [1] - This figure represents a drop from 9.4% in September, indicating improvements in currency stability, reduced fuel prices, and better national food supply conditions [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation rate of 8.0% is the lowest since June 2021, reflecting a significant improvement in economic conditions [1] - The decline from 9.4% in September to 8.0% in October shows a notable reduction in inflationary pressures [1] Contributing Factors - The stability of the Ghanaian currency has played a crucial role in the reduction of inflation [1] - Decreased fuel prices have contributed to the overall decline in inflation rates [1] - Improvements in the national food supply situation have also positively impacted inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains that its current monetary policy is effective in controlling inflation without causing economic recession, with key deposit rates held steady at 2% after a series of rate cuts since June 2024 [1][2]. Monetary Policy - ECB's key deposit rate has been held at 2% for three consecutive meetings, following a total reduction of 2 percentage points from a historical high of 4% starting in June 2024 [1]. - The ECB's recent policy decisions are aligned with the eurozone's inflation rate reaching the target of 2%, supported by stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q3 [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's inflation rate slightly increased to 2.2% in September, primarily driven by rising service prices, but overall inflation remains manageable [4]. - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose from 51.2 in September to 52.5 in October, marking the highest level in 29 months and indicating robust economic expansion [4][5]. Employment Trends - Employment growth in the eurozone accelerated to its highest level in 16 months, driven by increased hiring in the service sector, despite ongoing layoffs in manufacturing [5]. Risks and Uncertainties - The ECB acknowledges uncertainties in the economic outlook, including global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, which could impact future inflation forecasts [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations, amid ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Decision - The decision was made by the Monetary Policy Committee, with 5 members voting to keep the rate unchanged and 4 advocating for a rate cut, highlighting a division in views regarding inflation and economic growth prospects [1] Inflation Trends - Current inflation is reported at 3.8% as of September, significantly lower than the over 11% peak in 2022, yet still above the Bank's target of 2% [1] - The Bank of England forecasts that inflation will drop to around 3% by early next year and gradually return to target levels thereafter [1] Economic Outlook - The Bank's Governor, Andrew Bailey, noted signs of easing inflation but emphasized the need for more evidence to confirm a downward trend [1] - The upcoming autumn budget is expected to be a critical factor influencing the December interest rate decision, as inflation pressures ease and signs of labor market weakness emerge [1]

Group 1 - The inflation rate in the Philippines for October is reported at 1.7%, remaining unchanged from September [1] - The average inflation rate for the first ten months of the year is also 1.7%, which is below the government's annual target range of 2% to 4% [1] - The main contributors to inflation include an increase in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuel prices, which rose from 2.1% in September to 2.7% in October [1] Group 2 - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices saw a decrease in their year-on-year growth rate, dropping from 1.0% in September to 0.5% in October, which helped mitigate some inflationary pressures [1] - The food inflation rate for October is recorded at 0.3%, down from 0.8% in September and significantly lower than the 3.0% from the same period last year [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, is at 2.5%, slightly lower than September's 2.6% but marginally higher than last year's 2.4% [1] Group 3 - The Central Bank of the Philippines indicates that the overall inflation outlook is limited due to stabilizing global commodity prices [2] - However, the Central Bank also notes a weakening of business confidence due to a corruption scandal related to flood control projects, which has led to a deteriorating economic growth outlook [2] - The Central Bank plans to reassess the effectiveness of previous monetary policy measures in light of changing economic conditions and their impact on inflation [2]

Group 1 - The South Korean Composite Index decreased by 2.85% and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index fell by 2.50%, indicating a bearish trend in the Asian markets [1] - The decline in the markets is attributed to three main factors: high valuations in the US stock market, short-selling in technology stocks particularly related to AI, and a global dollar liquidity crisis due to the US government shutdown [1] - The liquidity crisis is exacerbated by the US government's account deposits being locked, leading to a situation where banks face liquidity issues, reminiscent of historical financial crises [2][4] Group 2 - The A-share market is performing independently from global trends, with a focus on sectors rather than indices, indicating a decoupling from US market movements [5] - Key sectors gaining attention include electric grid, battery, photovoltaic, wind power, coal, energy metals, and power generation, largely driven by increased investment in electric infrastructure and the demand from AI technologies [5] - Coal prices are on an upward trend due to weather fluctuations, which are closely tied to heating and power supply needs [6] Group 3 - There is a recommendation to pay attention to ultra-high voltage and coal mining stocks, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these sectors [7]

Core Insights - Turkey's inflation rate decreased to 32.87% year-on-year in October, providing a buffer for the central bank to maintain a cautious interest rate cut pace [1] - The consumer price index for food rose by 34.9% year-on-year, while housing costs increased by over 50%, contributing significantly to inflation [1] - The central bank's recent interest rate cut to 39.5% was influenced by a previous unexpected rise in inflation to 33.29% in September, marking the first increase in 16 months [1] Inflation Trends - October's inflation rate decline offers a potential easing of market concerns following September's unexpected rebound [1] - The finance minister indicated that achieving the year-end inflation target of 25% to 29% is challenging, but a strong disinflation process is expected to continue into 2026 [1] Producer Price Index (PPI) - Preliminary statistics show that Turkey's PPI increased by 1.63% month-on-month and approximately 27% year-on-year in October, indicating that industrial costs remain high [1] - The elevated PPI suggests that the foundation for declining inflation is still unstable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that excluding tariff impacts, inflation is close to the 2% policy target, and the trend of a cooling labor market remains unchanged, supporting the logic for interest rate cuts [1][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline prediction for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, driven by the ongoing cooling of the labor market [3][11]. - The September dot plot indicates that most committee members view rate cuts as the default option, with no signs of improvement in the labor market [5]. - Despite Fed Chair Powell's hawkish signals, the consensus reflected in the dot plot still points towards rate cuts, as there is no evidence of labor market improvement [5][11]. Group 2: Impact of Government Shutdown - Even if the government shutdown ends next week, the incremental data available to the Fed before the December meeting is likely to be weak, affecting employment reports for October and November [6][7]. - The reliability of data as a signal will be diminished due to the government shutdown, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [7]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Looking beyond 2025, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the policy path will be more dispersed with numerous intersecting factors influencing it [9]. - The recent announcement by Amazon regarding layoffs due to AI highlights the potential for a weakening labor market despite improved productivity, suggesting lower neutral interest rates [9]. - The market's pricing around terminal rates has been fluctuating around 3%, but significant uncertainty exists around this level [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6%, following three rate cuts earlier this year, amidst fluctuating inflation rates and economic uncertainties [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The RBA has cut the benchmark interest rate three times in 2023, from a peak of 4.1% in February to the current 3.6% [1]. - The underlying inflation rate rose to 3% in Q3, up from 2.7% in Q2, while the overall inflation rate reached 3.2% due to the cessation of electricity subsidies [1][2]. - The unemployment rate increased from 4.3% in August to 4.5% in September, indicating a slight slowdown in employment growth [2]. Market Conditions - Private demand in Australia is recovering, contributing to a strengthening real estate market and rising housing prices [2]. - Despite a tight labor market, there are still high levels of job vacancies, indicating ongoing recruitment challenges for businesses [2]. Future Outlook - The RBA anticipates that the underlying inflation rate may exceed 3% in the coming quarters before stabilizing at 2.6% by 2027 [1]. - Economic activity and inflation outlooks face uncertainties due to both domestic and international factors, including potential changes in private demand and global economic conditions [3][4]. - The RBA remains cautious, noting that the full effects of previous rate cuts have yet to materialize, and will continue to monitor economic uncertainties closely [4].

Core Insights - South Korea's consumer inflation accelerated in October, driven by the depreciation of the won, which increased energy and food costs, reinforcing the central bank's rationale for extending the pause in its monetary easing cycle [1][5][6] Inflation Data - October consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in September, surpassing economists' median forecast of 2.2%, marking the fastest growth since July 2024 [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy items, increased from 2% in September to 2.2% in October, with both overall and core inflation rates currently above the Bank of Korea's 2% target [1][5] Currency Impact - The won depreciated nearly 1.9% against the dollar in October, reaching its weakest level since March, which contributed to rising import prices for energy and food [6] - The weakening of the won has limited the central bank's options for further monetary easing, as it faces pressures from rising housing prices in Seoul [5][6] Economic Context - The Bank of Korea has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% during its last three meetings, amid concerns over asset bubbles and financial stability related to household debt [5][6] - Economists are divided on whether the central bank will cut rates in its final policy meeting of the year on November 27, as they assess the stability of housing prices in the capital region [6][7] Recent Economic Performance - The third quarter saw stronger-than-expected economic growth, supported by resilient exports and domestic spending, with GDP growing by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the forecast of 1% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that while the U.S. economy is in good condition, it is also becoming more vulnerable, with a weakening labor market exacerbating the situation [1] Group 1 - The current state of the U.S. economy is described as good but increasingly fragile [1] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which is contributing to economic vulnerabilities [1] - Achieving a 2% inflation rate at the cost of millions of jobs would be unfortunate [1]