Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of primary lead and recycled lead varies, with marginal increase in supply pressure. The off - season of lead - acid battery consumption continues, and the terminal sectors are slightly differentiated. Enterprises mainly accept long - term orders. With supply increasing and demand weak, there is insufficient upward drive for lead prices. However, due to the continuous existence of structural contradictions in raw material supply and demand, cost factors support lead prices. As the fundamental contradictions are not significantly intensified, it is expected that lead prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][80]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In May 2025, Shanghai lead first increased and then decreased. In the first half of the month, with a series of domestic financial policies, the easing of Sino - US tariffs, and the strengthening of the interest - rate cut expectation due to the cooling of US inflation, the market risk appetite improved, and lead prices oscillated strongly. But it was difficult to break through the resistance at 17,000 yuan, and the price slightly回调. In the second half of the month, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and concerns about the US debt problem led to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the arrival of crude lead eased the raw material pressure, the price of waste batteries decreased slightly, the cost loosened, and the off - season of consumption remained unchanged, with increasing inventory pressure. Lead prices gave back the gains from the first half of the month. By May 30, the futures price closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.31%. - LME lead first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated sideways. At the beginning of the month, tariff concerns gradually cooled, and LME inventory slightly declined from a high level, so LME lead stabilized and rebounded. Subsequently, market sentiment fluctuated around economic pressure, inflation, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the second half of the month, LME inventory increased significantly, strengthening the expectation of overseas surplus, and the lead price was under pressure. The resistance at $2,000/ton was obvious, and the futures price slightly declined and oscillated. Finally, it closed at $1,963.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.98% [8]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: In March 2025, global lead concentrate production was 367,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative production from January to March was 1.028 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5%. ILZSG predicts that the global lead mine production in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons. Overseas lead mines are producing steadily, and domestic lead concentrate production is also increasing. It is estimated that the global lead concentrate increment in 2025 is 160,000 tons, with 90,000 tons overseas and 70,000 tons in China. The contradiction of supply - demand mismatch in lead concentrate is expected to persist in the medium term [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees decline month - on - month, and lead concentrate imports decrease month - on - month**: In June 2025, the average monthly processing fees for domestic and overseas lead concentrates were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/metal ton and - 10 dollars/dry ton respectively. In April 2025, lead concentrate imports were 111,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.13%. The cumulative imports from January to April were 448,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41%. The import of silver concentrate also decreased in April. The supply - demand gap of lead concentrate exists in the long - term, and there is still a slight downward pressure on processing fees [19]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is gentle**: In March 2025, global refined lead production was 1.1316 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.72%. The cumulative production from January to March was 3.2584 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.7%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Overseas, there are no large - scale new refineries in recent years, mainly relying on the resumption and ramping - up of previous shut - down refineries. In China, new recycled lead refineries are the main focus, but projects are often postponed due to raw material constraints [25]. - **Electrolytic lead production in April was lower than expected, and supply mainly recovered in May**: In May 2025, electrolytic lead production was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The cumulative production from January to May was 1.562 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In June, due to more refinery overhauls and tightened lead concentrate supply, it is expected that electrolytic lead production will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. For the whole year of 2025, electrolytic lead supply is expected to increase steadily [31]. - **The price of waste batteries moves up, and recycled lead refineries gradually resume production**: In May 2025, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In June, the price of waste batteries is expected to move up slightly. In May, recycled refined lead production was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In June, production is expected to rebound to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9%, but the raw material supply problem still needs attention [36][37]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: In March 2025, global refined lead consumption was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The cumulative consumption from January to March was 3.242 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons. In 2025, global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on the lead - battery demand in the automotive industry [46][47]. - **Lead - battery consumption is in the off - season, and sectors are differentiated**: In May, lead - battery enterprises maintained the characteristics of the seasonal off - season, with the five - province battery enterprise operating rate at 70.45% at the end of May. The production of electric - bicycle and automotive lead - battery markets changed little, while the operating rate of energy - storage battery enterprises was relatively good. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating rate may rebound slightly but will remain in the range of 70 - 73% [54]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports**: In April 2025, the refined lead export volume was 3,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54%. The refined lead import volume in April was 4,734 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3496.9% and a month - on - month increase of 65.1%. The lead - battery export volume in April was 2.0463 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to battery exports [55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead - battery consumption prospect marginally**: In the terminal demand of lead - batteries, automotive and electric - bicycle batteries account for a large proportion. In the automotive sector, the lead - battery demand is strong, with both replacement and new - car supporting demands increasing. In the electric - bicycle sector, policies such as trade - in and the new national standard are beneficial to lead - battery consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the market scale is growing, and lead - battery demand also has growth potential [69][70][71]. 2.4 Overseas Inventory First Decreases and Then Increases, and There is Pressure on Domestic Inventory Accumulation - In May, LME inventory first decreased and then increased. By May 30, the inventory was 284,200 tons, a monthly increase of 20,000 tons. The domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. By May 29, the inventory was 49,400 tons, a monthly increase of 4,600 tons. In June, inventory is expected to rise again, but the accumulation volume is limited [76][78]. 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrate remains unchanged. In June, the domestic and overseas processing fees decreased slightly. The electrolytic lead production in May increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than expected, and it decreased in June. The recycled lead production decreased significantly in May and increased in June, but the resumption rhythm is restricted by raw material supply and profitability. The demand for electric - bicycle and automotive lead - batteries remains in the off - season, while the energy - storage battery demand is supported. The Shanghai - London ratio has limited boost to lead ingot exports. In the long - term, policy supports consumption, but the demand growth rate is stable but not strong. Overall, the supply pressure increases marginally, and lead prices are expected to oscillate widely [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The current lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract is expected to be in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Spot Market - On May 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -26.12 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells all decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On May 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 42,980 lots, an increase of 22,116 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 45,301 lots, an increase of 28,537 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,895 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,670 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,685 yuan/ton and closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On May 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 22, the LME lead inventory was 295,825 tons, an increase of 13,700 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ore. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The current lead price should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract range is between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$18.06/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead or at a discount of 180 - 170 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for rigid demand transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Smelters in Anhui and Jiangxi tried to hold prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were traded at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. As the lead price continued to weaken, apart from a small number of downstream enterprises making purchases at low prices, most enterprises still made purchases mainly for rigid demand. The spot market improved slightly compared to the previous day [2] Futures - On May 20, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 24,386 lots, a decrease of 2,507 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 22,798 lots, a decrease of 4,590 lots compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a maximum of 16,880 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On May 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, a change of 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 20, the LME lead inventory was 245,750 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core Viewpoints - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2506 contract is in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$4.45/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 75 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,575 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, changing by -10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 26,893 lots, changing by -5,591 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 27,388 lots, changing by -1,174 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,985 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,835 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Market Conditions - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price fell by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures fluctuated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for closing deals. As the lead price continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was dull [2] Inventory - On May 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, changing by 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 246,350 tons, changing by -1,825 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [5][38]. 3) Summary According to the Table of Contents a. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2506 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,835 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts fluctuated between 1,963 - 2,004 US dollars/ton [12]. b. Spot Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 16,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,780 yuan/ton, 16,770 yuan/ton, and 16,770 yuan/ton respectively. The 1 lead premium/discount was around a discount of - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. c. Supply and Demand Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of March 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 73.7 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. In March 2025, China imported 116.03 thousand tons of lead concentrates, an increase of 14.52 thousand tons from the previous month (a 14.3% increase) and an increase of 48.24 thousand tons from the same period last year (a 71.2% increase) [21]. d. Inventory Situation - As of May 16, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 248,850 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 49.85% [30]. e. Fundamental Analysis - After the implementation of the mutual tariff reduction between China and the United States, the impact of tariff policy adjustments on lead prices is gradually weakening. The lead spot price has slightly rebounded, and the lead discount has widened. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering from the bottom but remains at a low level. Lead production continues to grow, and the operating rate of lead enterprises is gradually rising. The production of electric bicycles continues to grow, and the demand for lead - acid batteries may increase. The Shanghai lead inventory has increased significantly, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME lead inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [4][37]. f. Outlook for the Future - The lead price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [5][38].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE lead fluctuated around 17,000 yuan. The easing of tariff concerns and the release of Fed's rate - cut remarks improved market sentiment, increasing the weight of fundamental pricing. The fundamentals showed a double - weak supply - demand situation. The supply of lead ore was not extremely tight due to imports, while the supply of recycled lead decreased due to raw material shortages and losses, and new production capacity was postponed. On the demand side, lead - acid batteries were in the off - season, and some enterprises planned to have a 5 - day holiday for May Day, 2.5 days more than last year. With the co - existence of reductions and restarts in primary lead smelters and greater impacts from recycled lead maintenance and postponed production, the supply decreased, but battery consumption was poor. The lead price had limited unilateral drivers and was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,895 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1927.5 dollars/ton to 1945 dollars/ton, an increase of 17.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.77 to 8.71; the SHFE inventory decreased by 11,406 tons to 45,654 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 7,550 tons to 274,075 tons; the social inventory decreased from 54,700 tons to 46,200 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract of SHFE lead fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.53%. The LME lead rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, the offers of different brands in different regions had certain premiums or discounts to the SHFE lead 2505 contract. The downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing large - discount goods increased, and the trading activity improved. As of April 25th, the LME inventory decreased by 7,550 tons to 274,075 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 11,406 tons to 45,654 tons. As of April 24th, the SMM five - region social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons compared to April 17th and by 8,500 tons compared to April 21st [5][6]. Industry News - In May, the monthly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were flat month - on - month. A small - scale lead and precious - rare metal recycling and smelting capacity in Guangxi was expected to be put into operation in Q4 2025, with an expected electrolytic lead production capacity of 60,000 tons/year. A smelter in South China started lead - zinc smelting maintenance, expected to affect about 10,000 tons of zinc and 4,000 tons of lead. A large - scale primary lead smelter in Henan resumed production. A new recycled lead smelter in Southwest China postponed its production to mid - May. Some recycled lead smelters in Central and East China reduced production due to raw material shortages. In March, the import volume of lead concentrates was 116,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 59.69%. The total import of refined lead and lead products was 11,933 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.35%, and the export was 5,228 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.6%. In 2025, the global refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The global refined lead demand is expected to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, the global lead mine output is expected to grow by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons, and the global refined lead production is expected to grow by 1.9% to 13.27 million tons [8][9]. Related Charts - The report includes charts such as SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory situations of SHFE and LME, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery price, profit of recycled lead enterprises, lead concentrate processing fees, production of primary lead and recycled refined lead, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][12][16]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended [5] 2. Core View - Due to the US tariff increase on China, the raw material supply has tightened, some primary lead plants have postponed resuming production, and the recycled lead raw material is relatively scarce. On the consumption side, battery enterprises are also significantly affected by tariffs. The current fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to remain volatile [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Lead Market Analysis** - **Mine Supply**: On April 18th week, the US imposed additional tariffs on China, which may lead to cost pressure being passed on to upstream and a risk of falling lead concentrate prices. The Shanghai-London ratio declined from a high level, and there was no profit in lead concentrate imports. The domestic supply and demand did not change significantly, and the silver price rose, with the silver pricing coefficient of low-silver lead concentrate stabilizing [3]. - **Primary Lead**: On April 18th week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces increased by 1.24% to 63.25%. Some smelters in Henan that had been under maintenance and production cuts had not resumed production, a small-scale plant resumed production, a plant in Hunan reduced production due to equipment debugging and was expected to recover by the end of the month, and another plant increased production. A plant in Yunnan had been operating stably after resuming production in early April. Outside the samples, a plant in Jiangxi had not recovered after production cuts, and a plant in East China postponed its regular maintenance in April to early May [3]. - **Recycled Lead**: On April 18th week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces reached 56.65%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.54 percentage points. In the off-season, recyclers had difficulty in collecting goods, resulting in insufficient raw material supply for smelters. The limited downstream demand for lead ingots led to low refined lead prices and pressure on smelters. Production cuts had been made this week, and the operating rate was expected to continue to decline next week due to continuous raw material shortages [3]. - **Consumption**: On April 18th week, the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises in five provinces was 72.5%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.74 percentage points. With the arrival of the off-season and the decline of lead prices, dealers were cautious in purchasing, and the enterprises' finished product inventory increased. Enterprises in Jiangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang and other places reduced production or took 1 - 5 days off to relieve pressure. In addition, the US tariff increase to 245% led to a significant reduction in orders from export-oriented enterprises, with insufficient follow - up of new orders, and production in May - June might be affected [4]. - **Inventory**: On April 18th week, the lead ingot inventory in five places dropped to 6.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.66 million tons and 0.37 million tons compared with April 10th and 14th respectively. After the delivery of the SHFE lead 2504 contract, the goods entered the market, and downstream enterprises picked up the goods, expanding the inventory decline. The lead price was fluctuating weakly, and the high price of waste batteries squeezed profits. Recycled lead enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices. In some areas, the price of refined lead exceeded that of primary lead, and downstream enterprises purchased primary lead, accelerating inventory consumption. Recycled lead enterprises reduced production due to losses and had low production enthusiasm. In the traditional off - season, downstream enterprises planned to reduce production or take holidays, and it was expected that both supply and demand would decline, with short - term inventory remaining stable and slightly decreasing [4]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended. The current lead market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to remain volatile [5]