Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro risk appetite is volatile, providing limited and continuous support for lead prices. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is expected to ease as more primary lead smelters are under maintenance and secondary lead smelters are operating at a low level due to significant losses. However, consumption has not been significantly boosted, and battery exports face negative impacts. The supply - demand contradiction is deadlocked, with low capital participation. It is expected that lead prices will remain range - bound and face resistance at integer levels [4][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From August 22nd to August 29th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,992 dollars/ton to 1,997 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 8.42 to 8.45. The SHFE inventory increased by 982 tons to 64,672 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 261,050 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons. The spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 rose first and then fell, closing at 16,880 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.6%. The LME lead price first rose and then fell, closing at 1,997 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.25%. In the spot market, downstream enterprises continued to wait and see, with low inquiry enthusiasm. The trading in the spot market was dull [6] Industry News - In September, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 450 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 dollars/dry ton. From January to June 2025, the global lead market had a surplus of 21,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 66,000 tons in the same period last year. The US Geological Survey proposed to include lead in the draft list of critical minerals. A large secondary lead smelter in East China suspended production at the beginning of September, with an impact volume of about 8,500 tons [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium, LME lead premium, primary and secondary lead price difference, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the lead market remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are dropping. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,202 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 27,975 lots, a decrease of 13,190 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 16,755 yuan/ton and 16,895 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 25, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of August 25, the LME lead inventory was 273,050 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation-based" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, the lead price showed a weak oscillation, closing at 16,780 yuan per ton. The domestic five - location lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 273,000 tons. The price of waste lead - acid batteries decreased slightly, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises did not narrow. The lead price oscillated with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. On Friday night, it broke through upwards driven by the market but then fell back due to insufficient driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillation [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - This week, the lead price was weakly oscillating, closing at 16,780 yuan per ton. The domestic five - location lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 273,000 tons [3] Industry Performance - Due to the oscillating lead price, the decline in the price of waste lead - acid batteries was limited. Most smelting enterprises settled at the pre - decline price. As of August 22, 2025, the theoretical comprehensive profit - and - loss value of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 445 yuan/ton, and that of small - and - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 665 yuan/ton [3] Core Logic - This week, the lead price oscillated with continuous bull - bear games. On Friday night, it was driven by the market to break through upwards but then fell back. On the supply side, primary lead smelters were more willing to produce due to the expected peak demand season. Secondary lead smelters were still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw material waste batteries, so they sold at a firm price, and the overall operating rate remained stable at a low level. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead batteries this week was 71.64%, a significant improvement from last week. Domestic inventory oscillated, and LME inventory remained high. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillation [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with relatively high domestic inventories. Lead prices are in a dilemma and may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the improvement of demand during the back - to - school season and the production dynamics of secondary lead [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In June 2025, China's lead ore imports were 118,026 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.54%, ending a two - month decline and reaching a five - year high. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate supply is tightening, and processing fees are falling. In August, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 600 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 70 - - 50 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decline of 15 US dollars [2]. Supply - In July, the national electrolytic lead output was 323,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.43%; the secondary lead output was 253,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93% and a year - on - year increase of 3.13%. The supply of primary lead was relatively stable last week, with little change in the operating rate. Some refineries in North China will conduct maintenance at the end of August, and the crude lead department of enterprises in Central China is expected to shut down at the end of the third quarter. The supply of lead concentrate raw materials and maintenance plans will limit production capacity release. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead decreased slightly. The production rhythm in Anhui remained unchanged, while production in other regions was slightly adjusted due to raw material supply. The shortage of waste battery raw materials has not been alleviated, and secondary lead enterprises are suffering large losses, with limited resumption of production and new project increments. Recently, the internal and external price ratio has fluctuated, and lead ingot imports have maintained a small loss [3]. Consumption - The operating rate of large enterprises remains at 70% - 75%. The operating rate of large battery factories in Anhui is stable at 70% - 75%, with a finished product inventory of 25 - 30 days, which has slightly decreased compared with July but is still at a historical high. The operating rate of small and medium - sized enterprises is generally 65% - 75%, with an inventory of 22 - 25 days. Some enterprises promote sales to reduce inventory, but terminal digestion is slow. Overall, the traditional consumption peak season has not appeared, the demand for electric bicycle batteries is weak, enterprises produce based on orders, the upward movement of wholesale prices is blocked, the inventory of dealers has reached a historical high, and terminal consumption is sluggish [3]. Spot - As of the week ending August 15, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month basis declined. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a discount of - 43.34 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 15, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 7,275 tons to 261,100 tons, continuing to decline from a high level and currently at an absolute high level in the past five years; the weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 2,510 tons to 64,800 tons. As of August 18, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations decreased slightly to 65,800 tons but was at a relatively high level in the past three years [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some primary lead production areas, but overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season demand signal is not obvious. However, with the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous sector may not decline further and are expected to remain in a range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On July 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.31 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,985 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 47,978 lots, down 24,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 64,534 lots, down 6,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,015 yuan/ton and a low of 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,870 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures market was weakly volatile, and different regions had different pricing strategies. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of July 29, the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with the lead price expected to maintain a volatile pattern between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. Although there is regional tight - supply in primary lead due to maintenance, overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, the lead price may not decline significantly under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Analysis Mine End - In the week of July 25, the lead concentrate market remained in a tight supply - demand balance with obvious regional differentiation. In Hunan, the processing fee for silver - lead ore was negative, and actual market transactions were scarce. In contrast, supply was relatively loose in Henan and Inner Mongolia, and most smelters were less willing to adjust the pb50 processing fee. Regarding the silver pricing coefficient, only the coefficient of low - silver ore (200 - 500g/ton) was raised to 0.8, while that of high - silver ore remained unchanged [1] Primary Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the primary lead industry dropped to 63.37%, a week - on - week decline of 2.45 percentage points. Supply in Henan was tight due to delayed resumption of maintenance enterprises and production fluctuations in another smelter. Operations in Hunan and Yunnan were basically stable, with only minor output adjustments in individual small and medium - sized plants. Maintenance was the main factor restricting capacity release [1] Recycled Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the recycled lead industry rebounded to 40.68%, a week - on - week increase of 2.84 percentage points. The resumption of an Anhui smelter drove a 6.6 - percentage - point increase in the regional operating rate, and a large - scale enterprise in Inner Mongolia was about to start production. Production in Henan and Jiangsu remained stable, but the recovery volume of waste batteries still restricted capacity release. With the approaching of the traditional peak consumption season, enterprises' production willingness is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise slightly next week. Tight waste material supply is the main constraint [2] Consumption - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery industry slightly rose to 71.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points. The market showed structural differentiation: some electric bicycle battery enterprises had an operating rate of up to 90% due to peak - season stocking demand, while automobile battery enterprises' operating rates fluctuated between 70 - 80% under the dual influence of weak domestic consumption and tariff policies, and some enterprises achieved full production by seizing export orders. Overall terminal demand has not improved significantly [2] Inventory - As of July 24, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 7.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons. Affected by continuous maintenance of primary lead and losses in recycled lead, the supply side remained tight. The narrowing price difference between recycled lead and primary lead prompted downstream to turn to primary lead procurement, resulting in a decrease in factory inventory and a slight increase in social inventory [2] Strategy - Given the current situation, the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and is in a volatile trend. The mainstream lead sources are in relatively high demand, but the recycled lead trading is still sluggish, and the peak - season demand is not significantly evident. Therefore, it is expected that the lead price will maintain a volatile pattern [1][2][4] Summary by Related Content Spot Market - On July 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.40 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained at 0 yuan per ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On July 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures opened at 16,930 yuan per ton and closed at 16,850 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 70,210 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots, and the position was 62,272 lots, an increase of 20,641 lots. During the night session, it closed at 16,910 yuan per ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On July 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of July 23, the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, an increase of 650 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - It is recommended to buy low and sell high between 16,300 yuan per ton and 17,000 yuan per ton. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View - The market has a relatively high level of inquiry for mainstream lead products, but the trading volume of recycled lead remains low. As the demand during the peak season is not significantly evident, it is expected that the lead price will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low within the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On July 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.97/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to -45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead refined scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, while the prices of scrap white and black casings remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,950 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,990 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. During the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,980 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [1] Market Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In the Henan region, some smelters have not fully resumed production, resulting in limited supply of scattered orders. Only some traders are offering quotes. In the Hunan region, smelters are firm in their quotes, while traders are offering discounts. In the Jiangxi and Yunnan regions, holders are also offering discounts [2] - **Demand**: The lead price is in a weak and fluctuating state. Downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices, but some enterprises are hesitant due to concerns about price declines, resulting in a generally sluggish market transaction volume [2] Inventory - On July 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous week. As of July 22, the LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to sell high and buy low within the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell a wide strangle [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided, keeping as is) [4] Group 2: Core View - The lead market shows no significant change in trading volume, and the lead price remains in a volatile pattern. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, but the peak - season demand is not obvious, and the weak non - ferrous sector also drags down the lead price. Current operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [1][3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot - On July 15, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$32.78/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton, SMM Tianjin lead premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread changed by 0 yuan/ton to -25 yuan/ton, and waste battery prices remained unchanged [1] Futures - On July 15, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,060 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, a change of -155 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 33,602 lots, an increase of 2,046 lots. The position was 52,667 lots, an increase of 223 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,080 yuan/ton and 16,925 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,930 yuan/ton and closed at 16,350 yuan/ton, a 0.44% drop from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped by 25 yuan/ton. In different regions, the quotation methods and conditions varied, and downstream buyers only made purchases based on rigid demand [2] Inventory - On July 15, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a change of 2,300 tons from last week. As of July 15, the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, a change of 10,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overseas tariff disturbances have resurfaced, but the impact is controllable. The fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Primary and secondary lead smelters are resuming production, but the supply recovery is slow. Meanwhile, demand is entering the peak season, and some battery companies are stocking up as usual, with the enterprise operating rate continuously improving month - on - month. Short - term inventory increases suppress the enthusiasm of long - position funds. The expectation of improved demand and rigid cost support the lead price. The contradiction between long and short positions is limited, and it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and wait for the effective realization of the peak season [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From July 4th to July 11th, the SHFE lead price decreased from 17,295 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a drop of 220 yuan/ton; the LME lead price decreased from 2,057 dollars/ton to 2,017 dollars/ton, a drop of 40 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.41 to 8.47, an increase of 0.06. The SHFE inventory increased from 53,303 tons to 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 263,275 tons to 249,375 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons. The social inventory increased from 5.79 million tons to 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 195 yuan/ton to - 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated within a narrow range, with the final closing price at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. The LME lead price fluctuated horizontally around 2,050 dollars/ton, with the final closing price at 2,017 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.94%. In the spot market, there were still differences in the shipment of electrolytic lead smelters. Some enterprises increased the discount for shipment, while others had firm quotes. The recycled lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some raised prices for shipment. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand at low prices and preferred to purchase the ex - factory goods of electrolytic lead smelters, with part of the demand diverted to recycled lead, while the warehouse goods transactions remained sluggish. As of July 11th, the LME weekly inventory was 249,375 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,900 tons; the SHFE inventory was 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons compared with last week. As of July 10th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.42 million tons compared with Monday and an increase of 0.32 million tons compared with last Thursday [5][6]. 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the average weekly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were reported at 550 yuan/metal ton and - 50 dollars/dry ton respectively, both remaining unchanged. Near the shipping period of the US REDDOG lead mine, the previously undecided additional tariff negotiation will eventually end with both the buyer and the seller bearing half each, and the lead will enter the domestic market in late Q3 [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead ingot premiums, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, the price of waste batteries, the profit situation of recycled lead enterprises, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13].