SHMET 网讯：美国铜市场遭遇有史以来最大单日跌幅。特朗普将进口量最大的精炼铜排除在关税清单之外的决定，令交易商大感意外。 白宫周三宣布，自8月1日起对进口铜半成品征收50%关税，但精炼铜不在征税之列。 消息公布后，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜期货价格暴跌20%。截至当地时间周三下午，美国铜价较伦敦金属交易所（LME）基准铜期货的溢价已从 28%大幅回落。此前交易商普遍预期关税将适用于所有精炼铜进口。 这是特朗普给铜市场带来的最新"惊喜"。今年初当这位美国总统首次暗示可能加征关税时，曾引发美国铜价相对全球其他市场的飙升，并促 使贸易商争相赶在关税实施前向美国发货，为全球一些最大金属贸易商带来巨额利润。 本月早些时候，他宣布铜关税税率将高达50%——是多数市场参与者预期的两倍，这又推动美国铜价创下历史新高。 将精炼铜（即阴极铜）排除在关税清单之外的决定，可能会进一步扰乱这种金属的全球贸易流向。 "如果阴极铜被排除在外，套利机会就结束了，"法国兴业银行固定收益及大宗商品研究主管迈克尔·黑格（Michael Haigh）表示。市场"应该 会重新回归平价。" 关税政策对精炼金属和半成品作出区分的做法，源于铜行业的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Demand**: As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. The downstream is in a relative off - season. Although the premium strengthened after the price decline, the trading sentiment remained weak. The output of terminal industrial products such as air conditioners decreased month - on - month. Downstream buyers followed the market on a need - to - basis, and market sentiment was cautious [7]. - **Macro**: US CPI and PPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was mild. The decision of the Fed to cut interest rates is highly uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in July remains unclear, but the market generally believes it is low. The US dollar strengthened this week, suppressing the prices in the non - ferrous market. Copper tariffs may be officially implemented on August 1st. In addition to refined copper, copper products may also be subject to tariffs. On July 18th, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non - ferrous metals, focusing on both supply and demand [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%. In the international market, Peruvian protesters lifted the blockade, and the copper transportation and export channels that had been blocked for more than two weeks have resumed [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - Macro Information - US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.8%. CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.6%. Core PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 3% [13]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 78,590 yuan/ton, the low was 77,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.13%, and the interval decline was - 0.03% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Copper Industry Disturbances - Vedanta Resources' Zambian subsidiary Konkola Copper Mines announced on July 16th that it will shut down and transform its smelter to improve capacity efficiency, which is a key measure to fulfill its $1.2 billion five - year investment commitment. - The world's largest cable manufacturer, Prysmian SpA, supports the Trump administration's planned 50% copper import tariff, believing it will strengthen the US domestic supply chain, although costs will be passed on to end - users [21]. 3.4 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of July 21st, the average spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of copper was low. After the copper price declined, spot circulation was smooth, and the spot premium strengthened [27]. 3.5 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of July 18th, the weekly change of LME copper was 0.83%, closing at $9,720 per ton. After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper spot premium weakened significantly. Currently, LME copper is at a discount to futures, mainly due to the sufficient supply of market - available copper and the weakening of spot prices [32]. 3.6 Copper Concentrate Port Data - Inventory - As of July 18th, the copper concentrate inventory at 7 major domestic ports decreased by 32,000 tons to 457,000 tons this week. The copper concentrate inventory continued to decline and is currently at an absolute low level in the same period over the years. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import volume of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [37]. 3.7 Smelter Processing Fees - TC/RC - As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production [43]. 3.8 Scrap Copper - Refined - Scrap Spread - As of July 18, 2025, the refined - scrap spread in the mainstream areas was 827 yuan/ton. The weekly spread strengthened, while the monthly spread weakened. Currently, the refined - scrap spread is at a low level, the substitution advantage of scrap copper is poor, the scrap copper rod production start - up rate increased slightly, and the scrap copper procurement sentiment was low [50]. 3.9 Inventory Information - COMEX - As of July 18th, the COMEX copper inventory was 242,800 short tons, and it increased by 2,379 short tons in the past week, a change of 0.02%. As the copper tariff implementation on August 1st approaches, the rush - to - buy copper sentiment is fading, and the inventory accumulation speed in the US has slowed down. As of July 18th, the LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. Since the copper tariff was implemented in early July, the LME copper inventory has rebounded from a low level, suppressing the LME copper price [56]. 3.10 Inventory Information - SHFE - As of July 18th, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week, a change of - 16.73%, and a decrease of 6,600 tons from last month, a change of - 15.00%. After the 50% copper tariff was implemented, the export channels tightened, and the domestic copper inventory increased significantly. In the past two days, it has decreased slightly due to new spot purchases after the price decline [60]. 3.11 Inventory Information - Bonded Area - As of July 17th, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 73,900 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and a decrease of 800 tons from the 14th. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 69,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and unchanged from the 14th. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 5,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the 10th and the 14th. The bonded area inventory showed a downward trend. Although there were still smelter export goods entering the warehouse this week, some warehouses also had goods shipped out for export, resulting in a decrease in inventory [63]. 3.12 Refined Copper Monthly Imports and Exports - In June 2025, China exported 154,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 464,000 tons. From January to June, China imported 2.633 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, China imported 337,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month increase of 44,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 92,300 tons. Exports of refined copper were 79,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.92% [68]. 3.13 Downstream Demand - **Copper Rod**: The output of copper rods continued to decline slightly. The market acceptance was low, especially due to insufficient domestic raw material supply and upstream suppliers hoarding goods. In July, the off - season demand affected copper rod production and sales. - **Copper Foil**: The price of copper foil fluctuated. The market supply and demand were weak this week, and the downstream market was not optimistic, with general support from the supply - demand side. - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tubes decreased significantly due to the shrinking long - term orders from downstream. Large enterprises had a more prominent production cut due to their high previous - period base, while small and medium - sized enterprises had a relatively gentle decline due to capacity limitations [73]. 3.14 Downstream End - Users - As of the end of May, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%, and wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.1%. - In June 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 163.296 million units, a cumulative increase of 5.5% [78].

Group 1 - The imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government has led to a significant decrease in demand for copper across various states, with companies like RM-Metals reducing their import orders by approximately 25% [1] - The price of copper in the U.S. has been consistently higher than the global benchmark due to tariff expectations, with Comex copper prices rising by 38% this year compared to a 10% increase in London Metal Exchange prices [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the specifics of the tariffs, including which products will be affected and potential exemptions, has caused companies like Aviva Metals to pause transactions and delay business decisions [3][4] Group 2 - The rising costs due to tariffs are expected to be passed on to customers, creating confusion and concern within the industry about how clients will respond to increased prices [5] - The current high inventory levels in the U.S. provide a buffer for manufacturers, but there is uncertainty regarding the speed and scale of future investments in the domestic copper industry [5] - Concerns about inflation during this period may pressure the U.S. to reconsider the implementation of tariffs, adding to the uncertainty faced by companies like RM-Metals [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that although there are disruptions in the production or transportation of multiple copper mines overseas, due to the Trump administration's imposition of high - tariff policies on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional consumption off - season in the domestic market, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,430, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, a decrease of 17,565 lots; the open interest was 178,682 lots, a decrease of 2,386 lots; the inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 23,307 tons, an increase of 1,578 tons [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 11, 2025 was 9,663, a decrease of 19 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 108,725 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on July 11, 2025 was 5.584, an increase of 0.04 compared to the previous day; the total inventory increased by 10,797 tons [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Macro**: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion and $560 billion by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the scale of weekly Treasury bond auctions. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not led to a significant rebound in consumer - end inflation. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with the expected time for rate cuts being September or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Wildfires in northern Manitoba, Canada, have caused Hudbay Minerals to suspend operations at its Snow Lake mine. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates has increased compared to last week. The export volume of Australian copper concentrates has decreased. The supply of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the domestic scrap copper production or import volume in July is expected to decrease, with a tight supply - demand outlook. Some copper smelters have suspended production, while others are under construction or have new production capacity coming online. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas and the total inventory of electrolytic copper in China have increased compared to last week, as has the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper [2]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods used in East China's power and cable industries has decreased compared to last week. Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The operating rates of some copper - related industries have changed, with the operating rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, and copper plate and strip increasing, while those of steel pipes and brass rods decreasing. The domestic steel enterprises' production capacity, production volume, and import volume in July are expected to decline [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support levels of 76,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,600 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.58 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,900 - 10,200 for London copper, and 6.0 - 7.0 for US copper [2].

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper products, including semi-finished copper goods, is expected to significantly impact various economic sectors and the U.S. copper supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Proposal Details - The proposed tariff will cover copper products used in power grids, military equipment, and data centers, with semi-finished products likely included [1]. - The details of the tariff plan are not fully disclosed, and adjustments to the measures are still possible [1]. - The market had anticipated tariffs on refined copper, but the inclusion of semi-finished products (such as wire, sheet, and pipe) was uncertain until now [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariff is expected to raise production costs across multiple sectors, including electronics, automotive manufacturing, construction, and defense [1]. - In 2022, the U.S. imported 908,000 tons of refined copper, which constituted the largest import category, and these materials are processed into rods, cables, and alloy products [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The U.S. Copper Development Association highlighted that semi-finished copper products are critical to the military supply chain, representing 90% of U.S. semi-finished copper producers [2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is insufficient to meet its own demand, necessitating significant imports of semi-finished copper products, estimated at 800,000 tons last year [2]. - The potential for a 50% tariff on semi-finished products raises national security concerns, as any disruption in foreign copper supply could severely impact U.S. electricity supply [2]. Group 4: Processing Sector Challenges - Imposing tariffs on semi-finished products will directly increase costs for processing companies, which rely heavily on imported raw materials [3]. - Current domestic processing capacity cannot meet the additional demand for 800,000 tons of semi-finished products, and establishing new capacity may take up to seven years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergent trends in copper prices between the US and other markets, particularly in light of the potential 50% tariff on copper imports proposed by President Trump, which has led to significant price fluctuations in the COMEX market compared to LME and Shanghai copper futures [1][2][9]. Market Trends - On July 8, the COMEX copper futures surged nearly 10% in a single day, while other markets like Shanghai copper futures remained relatively stable, with a slight decline of 1.36% on July 9 [4][5]. - The year-to-date performance shows that COMEX copper futures have increased by over 30%, while LME and Shanghai copper futures have only seen around 10% growth [7]. Tariff Impact - The proposed 50% tariff on copper imports is expected to significantly widen the price gap between COMEX and LME copper, which has already exceeded $2,500 per ton [9]. - If the tariff is implemented, it may reduce the "siphoning effect" on global copper inventories, leading to a potential easing of supply pressures in non-US markets [9]. Company Responses - Companies like Zhaolong Interconnect and Chuanjiang New Materials have indicated that their pricing strategies are closely tied to copper prices, with adjustments made based on market fluctuations [11][12]. - Wolong Nuclear Materials has stated that they are actively monitoring copper price changes and have implemented cost control measures to mitigate the impact of rising copper prices on profitability [13]. Future Outlook - The supply side of copper remains constrained, with declining processing fees and tight raw material supplies, while demand may weaken due to seasonal factors [15][16]. - The article suggests that the short-term outlook for copper prices may be bearish due to the tariff risks and seasonal demand decline, but medium-term support may come from supply constraints [16].

Group 1 - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by President Trump has led to a significant increase in New York copper futures prices, potentially causing major supply chain disruptions in the global metals market [1][5] - On Tuesday, Comex copper futures surged by 17%, marking the largest single-day increase on record, with New York copper prices reaching an all-time high of $5.8955 per pound before closing at $5.6855 [3][5] - The imposition of tariffs could lead to increased costs across various sectors in the U.S. economy, including consumer electronics, automotive, and residential construction, due to the widespread reliance on copper [5][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that prices will rise sharply in the short term as market expectations for lower tariff rates were previously held, leading to a surge in purchases before the tariffs take effect [6] - U.S. copper importers have warned that the tariffs could undermine Trump's goals of revitalizing manufacturing and challenging China's industrial dominance, as restrictions on copper imports may lead to severe supply shortages domestically [6][7] - The global copper industry has been preparing for tariffs since February, when Trump ordered a study on the feasibility of imposing tariffs under national security grounds, facing resistance from manufacturers reliant on imports [6][7] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Department has completed its investigation into copper tariffs, with expectations that they may be implemented by the end of July or early August [7][10] - Despite the high prices, there is currently sufficient domestic copper supply available for manufacturers, as traders have been shipping record amounts of copper to the U.S. to capitalize on price differences [7][10] - Chile, the largest supplier of copper to the U.S., exports approximately 500,000 tons of refined copper annually, which constitutes a significant portion of U.S. imports [10][11] Group 4 - Analysts expect that once the tariffs are in place and the rush to transport copper subsides, Comex prices may cool down [11] - The U.S. is projected to consume about 1.6 million tons of refined copper in 2024, with domestic mines producing around 850,000 tons, necessitating reliance on imports from major trading partners [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is still oscillating within a wide - range, mainly affected by macro - environment changes. With terminal demand support and a tight supply expectation, the upward and downward amplitudes are limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of copper tariffs and wait for new drivers [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened low, rose, and was under pressure during the day. The weak US economic data pressured the US dollar. The Trump administration doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50% and launched a Section 232 investigation on copper imports, triggering strong expectations of copper tariff policies. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not decreased yet. The domestic PMI data is good, and the off - season demand is resilient, supporting the copper price. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, confirming the downstream export and demand. The demand has weakened marginally in the short - term and entered the off - season, but there are no obvious changes in the fundamentals [1] Periodic and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, went low, then high, fluctuated, and closed down, at 78270. The long positions of the top twenty decreased by 2631 to 126036 hands, and the short positions decreased by 1325 to 128264 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 90 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 5 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9619 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 54.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31700 tons, a decrease of 246 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52000 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 138000 tons, a slight decrease of 3350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 185700 short tons, an increase of 1498 short tons from the previous period [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The Trump administration's plan to double steel and aluminum import tariffs and initiate a Section 232 investigation on copper imports has led to strong expectations of copper tariff policies. China's economic output is expanding, with the May manufacturing PMI up 0.5 percentage points and the composite PMI output index up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The supply side is expected to remain tight, but the actual supply of refined copper has not decreased. The domestic PMI data is positive, and the demand during the off - season is resilient, which supports copper prices. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, indicating downstream demand. If the copper tariff policy becomes clearer, it may lead to expectations of supply shortages and benefit copper prices. Currently, copper is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to subsequent tariff policies and downstream demand resilience [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened high and closed slightly lower. The Trump administration's actions on tariffs have raised expectations of copper tariff policies. China's economic indicators show expansion. The supply of copper is expected to be tight, but actual supply remains stable. The domestic PMI data is good, and off - season demand is resilient, supporting copper prices. The inventory decline in the Shanghai Futures Exchange reflects downstream demand. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the economy persists. If copper tariff policies become clear, it may boost copper prices. Currently, copper is in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated, and closed lower at 77,650. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 6,123 to 119,553 hands, and the short positions increased by 6,221 to 126,122 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 185 yuan/ton, while in South China it was - 60 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9,600 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 55 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31,400 tons, a decrease of 2,724 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 143,900 tons, a slight decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 182,600 short tons, an increase of 1,997 short tons from the previous period [9].