Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - Due to supply constraints, it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend. The strategy is to continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase for the fifth consecutive month. The US government shutdown led to the non - release of the October non - farm payroll data. Economists expect a 60,000 decrease in non - farm employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [5]. - **Supply**: Bauxite mining in northern China has not resumed. Some alumina plants in the region have reduced their operations. A large alumina enterprise in Hebei shut down 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and plans to resume gradually on October 31. Alumina inventory is continuously accumulating, while the operating rate and supply of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable [5]. - **Demand**: Recent electrolytic aluminum consumption has been generally good. The automobile industry is relatively prosperous, and the power grid - related orders are expected to be released rapidly. Overall, domestic demand is expected to continue to improve [5]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME aluminum futures inventory increased slightly, while domestic social inventory continued to decline slightly and is expected to continue to decrease [5]. - **View**: Supply disturbances have not changed the weak fundamentals of alumina. Due to supply constraints, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend [5]. - **Strategy**: Continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Graphs of domestic aluminum spot and futures prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premium and discount, LME aluminum price trends, and China's aluminum ingot import profit are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][13]. 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In September 2025, China imported 1,588 million tons of bauxite, a 38.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the import volume was 15,731 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. In 2024, China imported 15,876.7 million tons of bauxite, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea and Australia are the main sources. In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a 2.32% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4,574.32 million tons, with a significant slowdown in production growth. Recent domestic bauxite port inventory has decreased [20][25]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 799.9 million tons, an 8.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 6,856.0 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China exported 200 million tons of alumina, a 61.8% year - on - year increase, with 25 million tons in September, an 82.2% year - on - year increase. As of September 2025, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity reached 11,032 million tons, an increase of 630 million tons from the end of last year. More new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to Q1 2026. In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity release, and there are still many projects to be put into operation in 2026 and later. Overseas, there were approximately 500 million tons of new production capacity put into operation, and at least 870 million tons of new production capacity are expected in 2026 [34][35][38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5 million tons; the operating capacity was 4,444.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 92 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 99.41%, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In September 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a 0.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the global primary aluminum production was 55.113 million tons. In September 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.81 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 33.97 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 246,800 tons of primary aluminum, a 14.36% month - on - month increase and an 80.07% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 1.9618 million tons. As of November 6, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 550,500 tons, and China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 607,000 tons [42][53][62]. 4. Primary Processing and End - Market - **Alloy Ingot**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 177,600 tons, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 1.4116 million tons, a 15.9% year - on - year increase [68]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, China's aluminum product production was 590,000 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4.9768 million tons, the same as the previous year [71]. - **Aluminum Import and Export**: In September 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, a 35.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 3.01 million tons, a 5.7% year - on - year increase. In September, the export volume was 520,000 tons, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 4.52 million tons, an 8.1% year - on - year decrease [78]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report presents graphs of global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecast, global photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecast, global new energy vehicle sales forecast, China's real estate market situation, China's new energy vehicle production, and power engineering investment, but no specific analysis is provided [81][87][92]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum supply - demand balance tables from 2021 to 2027. In 2025, overseas alumina had 6.6 million tons of new production capacity (including restarted capacity), with 4 million tons of newly invested capacity. The net increase in production capacity in 2025 was 4.02 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, the global market will maintain a tight - balance situation, with a slight shortage overseas and a slight surplus in China [103][104][105]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content is provided.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum will remain balanced over the next three years, contingent on China's full production and the timely release of new overseas capacities, with any supply disruptions potentially leading to shortages and price increases [1][3] - As of September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is projected to reach 44.45 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 101.2%, indicating a tight supply situation [1] - Global aluminum supply is expected to grow at rates of 2.4%, 2.0%, and 3.5% from 2026 to 2028, with total supply reaching 76.58 million tons, 78.10 million tons, and 80.81 million tons respectively [1] Group 2 - Aluminum consumption is expected to continue outperforming market expectations, driven by growth in specific applications and the material's lightweight properties penetrating new fields [2] - China's electrolytic aluminum consumption growth is projected at 1.5%, 2.2%, and 2.3% from 2026 to 2028, while overseas consumption is expected to grow at 3.2%, 3.0%, and 3.2% during the same period [2] - Global aluminum consumption is forecasted to reach 76.51 million tons, 78.45 million tons, and 80.49 million tons from 2026 to 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.1%, 2.5%, and 2.6% [2] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance for aluminum is fragile, with profits expected to expand due to rigid supply conditions, and prices may accelerate upward if supply disruptions occur [3] - Profit forecasts for the aluminum industry are adjusted to 5,000, 5,500, and 6,000 yuan per ton for 2026 to 2028, corresponding to aluminum prices of 21,500, 22,000, and 22,500 yuan per ton [3] - The industry is entering a phase of weak supply, high profits, and low capital expenditure, with companies showing increased willingness to distribute dividends, making it a resilient sector during weak consumption cycles [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [9] Group 2: Core Views - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum remain stable. Overseas, an accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Consumption shows good growth, and if the social inventory reduction goes smoothly, there is potential for aluminum prices to rise [6]. - Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists, and the alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the market activity has increased due to electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement, the spot price is difficult to rise, and the current price is undervalued [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On November 4, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount was -10 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,290 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was -160 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,555 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,370 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 211,680 lots, and the open interest was 256,161 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 4, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, a change of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,194 tons, a change of -75 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 552,575 tons, a change of -2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On November 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,000 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,010 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,790 yuan/ton, closed at 2,770 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton or -0.54% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,798 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,593 lots, and the open interest was 420,282 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On November 4, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,120 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 120 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. An accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Although the social inventory shows a mediocre performance during the peak consumption season, the aluminum water ratio has reached a record high of 77%, indicating good consumption growth, and the real peak consumption season is expected from November to December. With the positive progress of Sino - US negotiations, there are still macro - positive factors, and the decline of aluminum prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the social inventory reduction rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists. The alumina spot price is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The cost of the ore end has decreased, but the alumina smelting loss has not improved. There is no large - scale production cut, and new production capacity is still expected. The current price is undervalued [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are under pressure due to supply - demand surplus, with potential production cuts in November. If production cuts occur, prices may rebound; otherwise, they will remain under pressure. Overall, the price trend is to sell on rebounds next year [3][99] - The shortage of global electrolytic aluminum is more prominent overseas. Macro - and micro - factors will drive the upward trend of aluminum prices to continue. In November, domestic demand may support prices, and the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow [4][103] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Due to supply - demand surplus, prices are falling. The November spot long - term settlement price may approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity, leading to potential production cuts. If production cuts reduce the surplus, prices may rebound to around 3000 yuan/ton; otherwise, they will be under pressure. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global shortage is mainly overseas. With overseas production cuts and improving domestic demand, aluminum prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (alumina oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan, aluminum oscillating strongly between 21000 - 21800 yuan), arbitrage (long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum), and option trading (wait - and - see) [4] 2. Alumina Low - price Pressure on Cash Cost and November Supply - side Production Cut Expectations - **Raw Material End**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with stable prices but few transactions. Imported bauxite prices are theoretically under pressure, but spot transactions are scarce. The price of Guinea bauxite is around 72 - 73 dollars/dry ton. In September 2025, China imported 1588 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.5% [7][10][11] - **Alumina Price and Production**: As of late October, the national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, and the operating capacity was 9765 million tons. In October, the domestic alumina supply - demand surplus was 33 million tons (considering downstream inventory) or 17 million tons (based on social inventory). The average full cost of alumina in September was 2863 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 179 yuan/ton. In November, pay attention to production cuts due to high - cost capacity approaching cash cost and the impact of heavy - pollution weather [22][23][36] - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, China exported 24.6 million tons of alumina (a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 82.3%) and imported 6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 61.7%). The net export was 18.6 million tons [31] 3. Macro - and Micro - Factors Driving the Rise of Aluminum Prices - **Macro Factors**: In October, the overseas macro - market sentiment was first depressed and then improved. The expected further reaching of tariff agreements between the US and other countries and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation will support LME aluminum prices, but the US government shutdown may bring uncertainty [41][46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Changes**: - **Overseas**: There are both increases and decreases in overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some projects are in the process of being put into production, while some factories have reduced production due to accidents or power - supply issues. For example, the Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant reduced production by about 21 million tons, and the Mozambique plant may reduce production by 37 million tons in March 2026 [51][52] - **Domestic**: As of late October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4523.2 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4441.4 million tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is ongoing. In September, the average full cost of electrolytic aluminum was 15977 yuan/ton. In September, the import of aluminum ingots was 24.68 million tons, and the export was 2.9 million tons [61][62][63] - **Inventory and Consumption**: - **Domestic**: At the end of October, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was 91.13 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will decline in November - December, and low inventory will support prices. The export profit of aluminum products is increasing, and consumption is expected to be resilient [66] - **Overseas**: The LME inventory is stable, and the spot is mostly at a premium. The global shortage of aluminum is more prominent overseas, and low inventory supports LME aluminum prices [69] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption**: - **New Energy Demand**: The production of photovoltaic modules is still relatively low year - on - year, with limited impact on aluminum demand. The use of aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year - on - year, and the use of aluminum in the power sector is also growing. The State Grid's investment in 2025 will exceed 650 billion yuan, and the sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods has increased [73][76][79] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real - estate industry is still weak, and the production of household appliances in November is expected to decline year - on - year. In September, the export of aluminum products was 87.01 million tons, and the impact of tariffs on international trade is gradually weakening [81][91][94] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: Low prices are pressuring high - cost capacity. In November, there are expectations of production cuts. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. The cost in November can refer to that in September - October [99] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macro - and micro - factors will drive the rise of aluminum prices. Overseas supply shortages will support prices, and domestic demand is resilient. In November, the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow, and the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [103]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 26.00 to HKD 35.00 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of RMB 116.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [1] - Net profit reached RMB 19.37 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.13% [1] - In Q3, net profit was RMB 6.9 billion, showing an 18% year-on-year growth and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with expectations [1] - Q3 gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 26% [1] Profit Growth Drivers - Profit growth is attributed to two main factors: 1. Margin expansion, with industry aluminum profit increasing by RMB 900 per ton and alumina profit rising by RMB 200 per ton in Q3 [1] 2. Contribution from the Wenshan project, which began contributing profits after the acquisition of the remaining 25% stake in Q2 [1] Industry Outlook - The Chinese aluminum industry is expected to remain resilient in Q4 due to low inventory, stable upstream supply, and seasonal demand from the power grid [1] - Current spot aluminum prices have risen above RMB 21,000 per ton, while alumina prices remain in the RMB 2,800–2,900 per ton range, with aluminum profit margins exceeding RMB 5,000 per ton [1] - Spot aluminum profit margins are projected to further increase by RMB 600 per ton compared to Q3 [1] Price Forecast Adjustments - Bank of America has raised its aluminum price forecast for 2025 to RMB 20,600 per ton (+RMB 100 per ton) and for 2026 to RMB 21,000 per ton [2] - As a result, profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 have been increased by 5%-23%, with expected net profits of RMB 26 billion in 2025 (up 17% year-on-year) and RMB 30 billion in 2026 (up 15% year-on-year) [2] Investment Rationale - Reasons for maintaining a "Buy" rating include: 1. Constructive outlook on aluminum prices [2] 2. Attractive dividend yield (6%-7% under a 63% payout ratio assumption) [2] 3. The Ximangdu project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, contributing approximately 3% to profits in 2026, with long-term potential to increase to 9% [2] 4. Ongoing share buybacks are expected to support the stock price [2] - The current target price corresponds to a 10x P/E ratio for 2026 forecasts, which remains attractive compared to Chinese copper companies (12-16x) and gold companies (16-17x) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that domestic aluminum futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract reported at 21,290.00 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.33% as of the report date [1] - During the period from October 20 to October 26, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 43,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2] - Rio Tinto announced that its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales is facing high electricity costs and has initiated discussions with employees regarding operational prospects, considering the possibility of ceasing operations after the current electricity supply contract expires [2] Group 2 - According to a Reuters survey, the average price of LME aluminum is expected to be $2,598 per ton in 2025 and $2,679 per ton in 2026, which is higher than the projected $2,418 per ton in 2024. The aluminum market is anticipated to have a surplus of 236,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026 [2] - Hongye Futures reported a slight improvement in domestic aluminum spot demand, with August aluminum exports around 520,000 tons, remaining stable, and a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in China's aluminum production in August [3] - Zhongcai Futures noted that while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high with substantial profits, the approaching traditional off-season is leading to a divergence in downstream operating rates, resulting in an overall weakening. Domestic and international aluminum ingot inventories have slightly decreased, and concerns over market conditions are supported by the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Aluminum contract showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract reached a high of 21,200, then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices due to the short - term suppression of downstream consumption by high prices [9] - The supply of northern bauxite is tight with relatively strong prices, while other regions remain stable. The resumption of some mines in Guinea puts pressure on imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling, hovering around 2,850. The fundamentals are significantly oversupplied. Attention should be paid to the possible production cuts and maintenance of high - cost enterprises due to price drops [9] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to oscillate strongly during the traditional peak season. In October, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged at a high level, and the Indonesian aluminum plant has been successfully put into operation, slightly increasing the overall supply. Demand is in the peak season. Although the actual performance of the terminal is poor, with the loose overseas liquidity and the increasing expectation of domestic stimulus policies, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract reached a high of 21,200 and then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: Northern bauxite supply is tight, and the resumption of some mines in Guinea affects imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy is in the peak season and is expected to oscillate strongly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the Indonesian plant's operation increases supply. Demand is in the peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices [9] Group 5: Industry News - A cooperation agreement on the management, operation, and maintenance of the mining road on the Darbilon Line was signed on October 3, 2025. Six mining companies in the Boké administrative region participated. The agreement allows the sharing of dedicated roads for mineral transportation, reducing production costs and environmental and social risks, and is expected to increase bauxite mining by over 50 million tons [10][11] - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. EGA has overcome challenges such as US tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [11] - The Japan Aluminum Can Recycling Association reported that the demand for aluminum cans in Japan in 2025 was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [11]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic aluminum prices have been observed, with a significant rise followed by a pullback, influenced by macroeconomic factors and steady demand [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - The main aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened significantly higher on Monday, reaching a new annual high during the trading session [1]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum price peaked at 21,020 yuan/ton, marking a new high for the year [1]. - As of September 18, the spot A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.53% but a year-on-year increase of 5.06% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% has positively impacted aluminum prices, with market expectations of three rate cuts this year [1]. - The recovery in demand from downstream sectors, particularly in the plate, strip, and foil areas, has contributed to a positive outlook for aluminum prices [1]. - Despite a near 96% operating rate for domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity and challenges in inventory reduction, the overall demand is showing signs of improvement, providing support for aluminum prices [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - It is anticipated that the demand for pre-holiday stockpiling will drive aluminum prices to fluctuate within the range of 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton next week [2].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum price is expected to experience a sideways fluctuation in the short term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Last week, aluminum prices broke through the $2,700 per ton mark but are currently facing downward pressure [1] - The aluminum industry is experiencing regulatory measures to curb overcapacity, which may help mitigate the decline in aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Production Outlook - In the coming months, aluminum production may stagnate or even see a slight decrease [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The revision of the US non - farm payroll data截止March this year by 911,000, the lowest since 2000, indicates weak employment. The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected and CPI met expectations, leading to high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Chinese economic data were mixed: the export growth rate declined in August, the core CPI rose steadily, and the new social financing scale exceeded expectations [3]. - On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum supply side was basically stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase, and the subsequent supply of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease. The downstream aluminum processing开工率rebounded last week, but there were differences among sectors. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [3]. - Overall, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, market risk appetite increased, and the aluminum price was supported. The operating capacity on the supply side was stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,602.5 yuan/ton on September 5, 2025, to 2,701 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, a rise of 98.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three increased from 20,650 dollars/ton to 21,060 dollars/ton, a rise of 410 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.9 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from 1.86 dollars/ton to 6.35 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 485,275 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons to 72,469 tons [4]. - The average spot price increased from 20,656 yuan/ton to 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 0 to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of Southern Storage spot increased from 20,608 yuan/ton to 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 48 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 tons to 62.5 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,539.76 yuan/ton to 16,383.85 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 4,116.24 yuan/ton to 4,434.15 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The average weekly price of the spot market was 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton compared with last week; the average weekly price of the Southern Storage spot was 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton compared with last week [5]. - In the macro - aspect, the US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 as of March this year. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and the CPI was in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. China's 8 - month import and export value increased by 3.5% year - on - year. China's 8 - month CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting [5]. - On the consumption side, the domestic downstream aluminum processing开工率increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - The macro - aspect strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, increasing market risk appetite and supporting the aluminum price. However, attention should be paid to whether the Fed's interest rate decision on Thursday morning would lead to the situation of "buy on rumor, sell on news". The fundamental supply side had stable operating capacity, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [7]. 4. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [8]. - It was rumored that on Tuesday, US President Trump proposed at a meeting in Washington that the EU should impose a 100% tariff on India and China for purchasing Russian energy to pressure Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. 5. Related Charts - The report provided 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum month - to - first - continuous spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of Wumaoyi, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]