1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Macro sentiment and the low overseas inventory pattern have jointly supported a significant upward movement in aluminum prices. The Shanghai Aluminum futures rose 4.9% last week, and the LME Aluminum rose 4.1%. Currently, despite the downward trend in the molten aluminum ratio and high aluminum prices leading to potential inventory accumulation in China, the low overseas inventory and strong spot supply - demand situation continue to drive up aluminum prices. Coupled with improved domestic spot trading and a marginal increase in downstream operating rates, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. This week, the reference range for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 23,800 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,950 - 3,300 US dollars/ton [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.598 million tons, with December's production increasing 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. January's production is expected to increase month - on - month. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year. China's molten aluminum ratio dropped 0.8% in December 2025 and is expected to decline further in January [12]. - **Inventory & Spot**: As of Thursday, aluminum ingot inventory reached 718,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. Bonded area inventory was 55,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from December 31, 2025. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 184,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. LME global aluminum inventory was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week. The spot basis of East China aluminum ingots strengthened, and the LME market's Cash/3M shifted from contango to backwardation [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 146,000 tons, a significant 41.0% decrease month - on - month and 2.8% decrease year - on - year. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons in November, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative exports from January to November were 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. Recently, the spot import loss of Shanghai Aluminum has widened [12]. - **Demand Side**: According to Aizhai Research, the weighted average operating rate of China's aluminum processing industry rose slightly by 0.3% week - on - week to 52.9%. The operating rates of aluminum plate and strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum rod sectors improved slightly. After the lifting of environmental controls in the Central Plains region after the New Year's Day, the operating situation improved. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained flat, and the aluminum rod sector was stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Shanghai Aluminum rose 4.9% to 24,385 yuan/ton during the week (as of Friday afternoon's close), and LME Aluminum rose 4.1% to 3,149 US dollars/ton. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum narrowed compared to last week [24][27]. - **Spot Basis**: The discounts in East China, South China, and the Central Plains regions narrowed significantly compared to last week. The LME Aluminum Cash/3M shifted from contango to backwardation [33][40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased significantly compared to last week and is at a historical high [49]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory reached 718,000 tons on Thursday, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. Bonded area inventory was 55,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from December 31, 2025. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 184,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. LME global aluminum inventory was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week and at a low level for the same period in previous years [52][56][61]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: The average domestic bauxite price decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of imported Guinea monohydrate bauxite decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [72]. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the import price remained unchanged [76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the thermal coal price increased by 17 yuan/ton [80]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In December 2025, alumina monthly production was 8.003 million tons, an increase of 162,000 tons from November and 8.7% year - on - year. The annual production in 2025 was 90.647 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase. Production in January 2026 is expected to remain high [86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.608 million tons. December's production increased 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. The operating capacity in January is expected to be stable. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month increase and 2.2% year - on - year increase, with the annual production increasing about 2.8% year - on - year [89]. - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: This week, the aluminum rod processing fee turned negative, and the processing fee in Foshan continued to decline. In December 2025, China's molten aluminum ratio decreased by 0.8% month - on - month. The molten aluminum ratio decreased slightly this week and is expected to decline further in January 2026 [92]. - **Provincial - Level Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production in each province increased compared to November [97]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.931 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. Cumulative output from January to November was 61.511 million tons, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease. As of January 5, 2026, the daily aluminum ingot出库量 was 91,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease. The operating rates of different downstream sectors showed different trends in 2025 [101]. - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the production schedule for household air conditioners in January 2026 is 18.51 million units, an 11% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year, reversing the previous decline. The production schedule for refrigerators is 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production schedule for washing machines is 8.1 million units, a slight 1.8% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Real estate data in November 2025 remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and the production schedule for photovoltaic modules in January 2026 is expected to decline [117]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 146,000 tons, a significant 41.0% decrease month - on - month and 2.8% decrease year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January to November were 2.35 million tons, a 19.1% year - on - year increase. The spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened this week [122]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In November 2025, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative exports from January to November were 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease [129]. - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In November 2025, recycled aluminum imports were 163,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous month. Cumulative imports from January to November were 1.822 million tons, a 12.2% year - on - year increase [129]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's bauxite imports were 15.109 million tons, with imported ore accounting for 73.3%. Cumulative bauxite imports from January to November were 185.959 million tons, a 29.3% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, China's alumina exports were 168,000 tons, a 12.2% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative alumina exports from January to November were 2.343 million tons, a 46.7% year - on - year increase [132].

Group 1 - The aluminum market is experiencing a significant price surge, with domestic and international prices reaching new highs, attracting investor attention [1][2] - The Shanghai aluminum price hit 24,335 yuan per ton, marking a 2.65% increase, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price reached $3,115.5 per ton, the highest since April 2022 [1][2] - Concerns over potential supply shortages are driving the price increases, with production disruptions and rising demand contributing to a widening supply-demand gap [2][4] Group 2 - The current domestic aluminum inventory stands at 703,000 tons, which is higher than the same period last year, indicating some short-term supply security, but long-term pressures remain [2] - In the spot market, aluminum ingot prices have risen significantly, with average transaction prices increasing by 1,450 yuan to 23,910 yuan per ton, although the spread between spot and futures prices has widened [3] - The widening spread indicates a contradiction in the market, where strong demand coexists with caution from downstream enterprises regarding high prices [3][5] Group 3 - Short-term forecasts suggest that aluminum prices may continue to rise due to external factors such as geopolitical tensions and low overseas inventories [4] - The market is characterized by high volatility and significant disagreement among traders, which may lead to larger price fluctuations in the future [4] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, waiting for price corrections before entering the market to mitigate risks associated with high prices [6]

04 成本端 海外库存偏低，价格抬升 铝月报 2026/01/04 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2025年12月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4459.8万吨，12月电解铝产量环比增加3.9%，同比增长1.9%。12月 海外电解铝产量258.1万吨，环比增加3.6%，同比增长2.2%。2025年12月国内铝水比例环比下降0.8%，预计2026年1月继续下调。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTELL数据，2025年12月末铝锭现货库存录得63.8万吨，环比增加4.8万吨。铝棒库存合计14.7万吨，环比增加0.4万吨。据 SMM统计，12月末保税区库存录得5.5万吨，环比下降0.5万吨。LME铝库存录得50.9万吨，环比减少2.9万吨。国内华东铝锭现货基差走弱， LME市场Cash/3M贴水缩窄。 ◆ 进出口：20 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 （来源：铝途） 来源：铝途 2025年12月铝价走势图 12月铝价整体呈现暴涨模式，从12月1日铝均价21730元/吨，截止到12月31日铝均价22460元/吨，整体上涨730元/吨左右，突破近三年以来历史高点，刷新 铝价记录。影响到铝价走势的核心原因，主要还是供应端的刚性约束（国内产能天花板、海外电力瓶颈）与需求端的结构性增长（新质生产力相关领域） 将共同维持市场的紧平衡格局。展望2026年，铝价的核心驱动因素依然稳固，价格中枢有望稳步上行，但运行过程可能因季节性、库存变化和宏观事件而 更为曲折。 铝产业链、氧化铝、铝土矿老板圈子（铝途圈会员群⬇️） （来源：铝途） 来源：铝途 2025年12月铝价走势图 12月铝价整体呈现暴涨模式，从12月1日铝均价21730元/吨，截止到12月31日铝均价22460元/吨，整体上涨730元/吨左右，突破近三年以来历史高点，刷新 铝价记录。影响到铝价走势的核心原因，主要还是供应端的刚性约束（国内产能天花板、海外电力瓶颈）与需求端的结构性增长（新质生产力相关领域） 将共同维持市场的紧平衡格局。展望2026年，铝价的核心 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-23 铝土矿价格承压下滑 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21930元/吨，较上一交易日变化110元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价21770元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-50元/吨至-330元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录21860元/吨，较上一交易日变化110元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-240 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-22日沪铝主力合约开于22295元/吨，收于22220元/吨，较上一交易日变化180元/吨，最 高价达22365元/吨，最低价达到22095元/吨。全天交易日成交253929手，全天交易日持仓314299手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-22，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.0万吨，较上一期变化2.2万吨，仓单库存76088 吨，较上一交易日变化-100吨，LME铝库存519600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-22SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2730元/吨，山东价格录得2655元/吨，河南价格录得 2750元/吨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a current price of $2951 per ton, reflecting a 0.20% increase from the opening price [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On December 22, LME aluminum futures opened at $2955 per ton, reaching a high of $2958 and a low of $2944.5 during the trading session [1] - On December 19, the LME aluminum futures closed at $2955.5, with a daily increase of 1.32% [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Data - As of November 19, the average daily price of A00 aluminum was 21830 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.41% and a year-on-year increase of 10.98% [1] - On December 19, the electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.51, with an import loss of 2148.39 yuan per ton, compared to a previous loss of 2040.57 yuan per ton [1] - On December 19, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at the London Metal Exchange totaled 445800 tons, with 73800 tons canceled, keeping the total inventory at 519600 tons unchanged [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) strengthened, closing at 21,045 yuan, an increase of 130 yuan, or 0.62% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 3,574 lots, a decrease of 656 lots, while open interest fell by 222 lots to 17,404 lots [1] - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,100 yuan/ton, up by 100 yuan [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm employment growth exceeded expectations in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, indicating a lack of cyclical economic momentum [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious stance regarding further interest rate cuts in the short term [1] - The dollar index rebounded but remained around 98.25, exerting limited pressure on aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price of raw material scrap aluminum remains high due to tight supply, providing solid support for aluminum alloy prices [2] - Despite support from the automotive sector, recent demand has shown signs of fatigue, raising concerns about the sustainability of future orders [2] - The current market sentiment is improving, with increased buying interest from downstream sectors, leading to a rise in trading volume [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be supported by strong aluminum prices and cost pressures, but anticipated weakening demand and high inventory levels of recycled aluminum alloys may limit price increases [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the medium - term trend of aluminum prices. The pricing logic for aluminum in Q4 2024 will continue in 2026. In 2026, under different scenarios, the aluminum market is expected to face shortages, and although there will be inventory accumulation in Q1, the pressure is relatively controllable [3]. - The alumina market needs significant supply - side clearing and supply - demand re - balancing to reverse the situation. The current supply is in excess and inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Price and Market Outlook**: The medium - term view is that aluminum prices will trend upwards. In 2026, under the baseline scenario (production and demand growth rates of 1.7% and 2.1% respectively, net imports of 2.4 million tons), the annual shortage is expected to be about 124,000 tons; under the optimistic scenario (production and demand growth rates of 1.7% and 2.6% respectively, net imports of 2.5 million tons), the annual shortage is expected to be about 258,000 tons. In Q1 2026, even if there is a price dip, it may be a good buying opportunity. In the short term, due to increased macro - disturbances at the end of the year, the Shanghai aluminum price has fallen back from the 22,000 mark [3]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 14,000 tons to 579,000 tons this week. It is expected to decline slightly above the level at the end of last year by the end of the year. The downstream demand is showing signs of recovery, with the spot basis, downstream start - up rates, and downstream profits all improving [3]. Alumina - **Price and Market Situation**: The alumina price once fell below the 2,500 mark this week, and the main contract dropped to a minimum of 2,437 yuan/ton. The market is facing continuous over - supply and inventory accumulation, and the expected increase in ore supply next year may further drag down the price. However, due to the accumulation of short positions, trading factors are causing more disturbances [4]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase this week, with an increase of 57,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory in the alumina plants decreased, while that in the electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the inventory at stations/on - the - way increased significantly [44]. Trading - end - **Price Spreads**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina strengthened this week. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from - 80 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 195 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from 187 yuan/ton to 227 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from 252 yuan/ton to 322 yuan/ton [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract increased slightly, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a historical high, and the trading volume increased slightly [14]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of December 12, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 1.4746 million tons compared to last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of November, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 (ALD) caliber also showed a downward trend. In November, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises decreased by 370,000 tons month - on - month [24][30]. - **Alumina**: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase. As of December 11, the national alumina inventory was 4.585 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons compared to last week [51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 14,000 tons to 579,000 tons as of December 11, continuing the de - stocking trend this week [52]. - **Processed Materials**: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods decreased this week. As of November, the finished product inventory ratio and raw material inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, while the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum sheets and foils increased slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio remained flat [58][61]. Production - **Bauxite**: In November, the domestic bauxite supply showed a differentiated situation. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In terms of different provinces, the bauxite production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi showed different trends in the steel - union and SMM calibers [66][67]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 12, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 96.1 million tons, a weekly decrease of 400,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.859 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week, and the supply - side over - supply situation remained unchanged [71]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of November, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit recovery. As of December 11, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum in the steel - union caliber was 853,600 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared to last week. As consumption entered the off - season, the proportion of aluminum water decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots is expected to increase month - on - month [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum sheets and foils all decreased slightly, with decreases of 900 tons, 17,000 tons, and 21,000 tons respectively. The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.1%, and the market performance was stable, generally in line with the seasonality [77][78]. Profit - **Alumina**: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the steel - union caliber was 86.2 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit was under pressure. Among different provinces, the alumina profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better due to the relatively firm cost side [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level. However, the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [100]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 10 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [101]. Consumption - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased. In October 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials showed a differentiated situation [110][112][115]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing remained at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [117].

宏观事件落地，铝价调整 铝周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止11月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4422.5万吨；11月电解铝产量环比减少2.8%%，同比增长1.5%。 11月国内 铝水比例环比下降0.5%。预计12月铝水比例小幅下降。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTELL数据，本周四铝锭库存录得57.9万吨，较上周四下降1.4万吨。保税区库存录得6.4万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。本周 四铝棒库存合计12.9万吨，较上周四下降0.6万吨。LME全球铝库存录得51.9万吨，较上周减少0.6万吨。国内华东铝锭现货基差走强，LME市 场Cash/3M贴水扩大。 ◆ 进出口：2025年10月中国原铝进口量为24.8万吨，环比增加1.8%，同比增加42.2%。1-10月累计进口量为2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened towards the end of trading, with notable increases in shares of China Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao, driven by favorable macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (02600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, the largest drop since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper - Long-term support for aluminum prices is expected due to constrained supply and low inventory levels - Despite December being a traditional off-peak season for consumption, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain limited, maintaining a "tight balance" in the market - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of reliable power supply for new capacity remains uncertain [1]