Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 116.39 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.12%, with a net profit of 7.07 billion yuan, up 0.81% year-over-year [2]. - The report highlights that the high aluminum prices are expected to support stable growth in the company's performance in the future [1]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with a slight decrease of 0.49 percentage points year-over-year, while Q2 gross margin improved to 17.60%, up 1.74 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The report notes a significant reduction in power costs due to falling coal prices, which is expected to enhance profits [4]. - The outlook for aluminum prices in H2 2025 is optimistic, driven by low inventory levels and sustained demand from sectors like solar energy and automotive [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 60.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.87% year-over-year but an increase of 8.65% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company’s net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, down 26.18% year-over-year and slightly down 0.13% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with Q2 showing an improvement to 17.60% [3]. - The report attributes the increase in gross margin to lower energy and alumina raw material costs [3]. Production and Capacity - The company aims for a total alumina production of 16.81 million tons and aluminum production of 7.8 million tons for the year [4]. - The self-sufficiency rate for alumina ore significantly increased by 6% to a five-year high [4]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.11 billion yuan, which represents about 30% of its net profit for H1 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the profit forecast for the company for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 15.06 billion yuan, 15.66 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan respectively [6]. - The target price for the company is set at 10.56 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12 times for 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price dropped nearly 5% after the release of its interim results, reflecting market concerns over its financial performance despite a slight increase in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, China Aluminum reported operating revenue of 116.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 7.071 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.81% [1] - In the second quarter, the company experienced a decline in operating revenue to 60.61 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in the second quarter was 3.53 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.123 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.11 billion yuan, which represents 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities noted that low inventory levels are currently supporting high aluminum prices, and demand in the photovoltaic sector is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the second half of the year despite the end of the policy-driven installation surge [1] - The automotive sector is also anticipated to sustain high growth due to domestic vehicle replacement policies [1] - The overseas economy is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year amid a rate-cutting cycle [1] - The firm maintains an optimistic outlook for aluminum demand in the second half of 2025, predicting a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [1] - In terms of alumina, the mining sector has entered a destocking phase, making it difficult for bauxite prices to decline, while the alumina segment may face a loose supply situation but is unlikely to see significant price drops due to cost support [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 by 34.3%, 17.68%, and 2.95% to CNY 21.659 billion, CNY 20.889 billion, and CNY 21.912 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 2.29, CNY 2.20, and CNY 2.31 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 81.039 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 12.361 billion, up 35.02% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.67%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for aluminum alloy products, alumina, and aluminum alloy processing products at 25.2%, 28.8%, and 23.3% respectively [3] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The decline in electricity costs has contributed to profit growth, with coal prices significantly dropping this year, leading to lower electricity costs in the Shandong region where the company operates [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than HKD 3 billion, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and long-term investment value [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the upward trend in aluminum prices for the second half of 2025, driven by low inventory levels and sustained demand from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors [5] - The forecast for aluminum prices is expected to fluctuate upwards, potentially exceeding CNY 21,000 per ton within the year, while the downside for alumina prices is limited due to cost support [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China's electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to stabilize above 20,000 yuan/ton in the long term, with China Hongqiao (01378) being favored due to multiple advantages, leading to a "buy" rating and a target price increase from 20 HKD to 26 HKD [1] - The report highlights that China's low electricity prices and coal cost advantages will likely widen the cost gap further in 2025-26, enhancing profit stability for integrated producers like Hongqiao [1] - It is projected that the profit per ton for Chinese aluminum companies will remain between 3,000-4,000 yuan in 2025-26, significantly above the historical average of 1,000-2,000 yuan, indicating a weakening of industry cyclicality and laying the groundwork for valuation reassessment [1] Group 2 - Demand for aluminum is expected to grow by 2-3% from the second half of 2025 to 2026, driven by investments in power grids and the increased use of aluminum in lightweight vehicles, which will offset weaknesses in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors [2] - On the supply side, despite a global planned capacity of 7.5 million tons, power bottlenecks in regions like Indonesia may delay production progress [2] - The structural supply gap in 2025-26 cannot be compensated by recycled aluminum, and political instability in Guinea regarding bauxite mining licenses further tightens resource constraints, significantly supporting alumina costs [2]

Report Title - Aluminum Weekly Report: US Adjusts Aluminum Tariff Scope, Sentiment May Be Pressured [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The US-Russia leaders' talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives, which may put pressure on sentiment. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the strong aluminum product export data still supports the aluminum price. However, the pressure comes from the weak downstream consumption and the volatile trade situation. In the short term, the aluminum price may experience a volatile correction. The reference range for the domestic main contract this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is 2,520 - 2,640 US dollars/ton [13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [13] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at par with the futures, and the LME Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.8 US dollars/ton [13] - **Imports and Exports**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports has narrowed [13] - **Demand**: According to Aizhi Consulting's research, the weekly operating rates of aluminum products were differentiated. The operating rates of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, and aluminum alloys rebounded, while those of aluminum sheets, strips, aluminum rods, and aluminum foils declined. Currently, the improvement in downstream consumption is still not significant, and the spot trading is mediocre [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices were volatile. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 0.41% week-on-week (as of Friday's close), and LME 3M aluminum closed down 0.46% to 2,603 US dollars/ton [24] - **Term Spread**: The domestic aluminum ingot discount in major regions narrowed oscillatingly [31] - **Spot Basis**: The LME aluminum Cash/3M turned to a slight premium [41] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit increased to 3,577 yuan/ton [46] - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 139,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum ingots increased week-on-week. The LME inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons [49][52][55] 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were stable [60] - **Alumina Price**: Both domestic and overseas alumina prices decreased [65] - **Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [70] 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6% and a year-on-year production increase of 5.4%. The overall supply was relatively sufficient [75] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [78] - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee was oscillating. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 9.3% year-on-year and increased by 11.9% month-on-month to about 976,000 tons. With the rebound of the aluminum rod processing fee, the aluminum water ratio is expected to rebound in August [81] 6. Demand Side - **Output and Outbound Volume**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods was expected to increase month-on-month, slightly better than the same period last year. In July, the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, strips, foils, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and recycled aluminum alloy ingots declined month-on-month. In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods dropped from a high level [86][90][92] - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; the production schedule of washing machines was 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand expectation related to home appliances was weak. Currently, the real estate data was also weak, the automobile production and sales were fair, and the photovoltaic installation decreased significantly, and the related demand was also under pressure [100] 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [103] - **Aluminum Products and Recycled Aluminum**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [108] - **Bauxite and Alumina**: In June 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month-on-month decrease of 17.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.7% [111]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that aluminum prices are currently in a range-bound state, influenced by macroeconomic factors and domestic production dynamics [1] - As of this week, the total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in the country is 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, reflecting a weekly increase in the operating rate by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% due to the end of maintenance and profit-driven production increases [1] - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum processing enterprises has slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%, while the operating rate for aluminum wire and cable remains stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the total production of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with an operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% due to inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices [1] - Since late July, aluminum prices have retreated, and expectations for terminal deliveries have increased for August and September, suggesting that downstream consumption may recover from the off-season, although current inventory levels at aluminum rod manufacturers still need to be addressed [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas is 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Thursday, indicating a short-term support for aluminum prices from macroeconomic easing expectations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to have a certain premium squeezed out in August and September, but the depth of the correction is not significant. The key lies in the limited height of the current inventory accumulation. The possibility of a lackluster peak season in late August and September depends on whether the pre - placement of previous export demand has led to a lack of quality in traditional second - half export orders [3]. - Alumina prices continue to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although there are uncertainties on the supply side, the supply - side relaxation in the spot market may put pressure on the price [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract has shown a mild downward trend after failing to break through near the 21,000 mark. The premium of traditional non - ferrous metals has been squeezed out, but the decline is relatively mild [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of July 31, the SMM East China spot has turned to a discount, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton on Friday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has rebounded, but the cumulative output since the beginning of the year has still decreased by 0.73%. The output and sample production schedule of aluminum profiles have continued to weaken. The processing fee of aluminum rods has increased by 110 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price Trend**: The price center has continued to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although the spot price showed a turning point this week, considering the possible further relaxation of spot supply in mid - August, the futures price may still face pressure [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week. The in - plant inventory decreased by 2.3 tons, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 4.6 tons, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increased by 1.3 tons [51]. 3.3 Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium has weakened, while the alumina spot premium has strengthened. The Shanghai Aluminum near - month spread has widened [11][12]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of both the Shanghai Aluminum and alumina main contracts have declined [14]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.4 Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: As of August 1, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 1.44 million tons week - on - week. As of June, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has continued to decline. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia has decreased, while the floating inventory has increased. The outbound volume of Guinea has increased, and the inbound volume has slightly decreased [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. As of July 31, the inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week [51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July 31, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons [52]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot and in - plant inventories have slightly decreased, and the outbound volume has increased [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foil**: As of June, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has slightly decreased, while the raw - material inventory ratio has slightly increased. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil has significantly increased, and the raw - material inventory has greatly increased [60]. 3.5 Production - related - **Bauxite**: As of July, the domestic bauxite production under the SMM caliber has slightly increased. The production in Shanxi has remained stable under the Steel Union caliber in June and slightly decreased under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Henan has increased slightly under the Steel Union caliber in June and decreased by 3.2 tons under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Guangxi has decreased significantly under the Steel Union caliber in June and increased by 8.94 tons under the SMM caliber in July [65][69]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has remained stable. As of August 1, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 94.6 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.847 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level in recent years [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of June, the operating capacity has remained at a high level. As of July 31, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum under the Steel Union caliber was 845,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week. The aluminum - water ratio has decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods has decreased by 1,290 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum rods has increased by 3,400 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has increased by 4,950 tons week - on - week [81]. 3.6 Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit has continued to recover, with a slight decline this week. The profit in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan has remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi is better than that in other regions [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but global macroeconomic complexity, geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [98]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [99]. 3.7 Consumption - related - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum have widened. In June 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly decreased by 57,000 tons month - on - month [107][109]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing has declined, while the automobile production has increased month - on - month [116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The US counter - tariff has been implemented, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations are not beyond expectations, and the domestic "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down. Black - series commodities have fluctuated and declined, with a slightly weak sentiment. Domestically, the relatively low inventory of aluminum ingots supports aluminum prices. However, given the off - season for downstream demand and pressure on export demand, the upside for aluminum prices is limited. In the short term, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is expected to be between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 340,000 tons week - on - week to 544,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 2.6 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the domestic spot import loss of aluminum has shrunk [13]. - **Demand**: The weekly aluminum product operating rate continued to decline. The operating rates of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, profiles, and alloys all decreased, while the operating rate of aluminum rods increased slightly. The downstream is currently in the off - season, and the spot trading of aluminum remains weak. According to the production scheduling reports of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule for household air conditioners is 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year; for refrigerators, it is 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; and for washing machines, it is 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum fell 1.2% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum closed down 2.26% to 2,571 US dollars/ton [22]. - **Term Spread**: The month - on - month spread rebounded slightly [27]. - **Spot Basis**: The basis of aluminum ingots in major domestic regions fluctuated and stabilized [30]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Spread**: The East China spot was weak, while the Central China spot was strong [35]. - **LME Premium and Discount**: LME aluminum Cash/3M was slightly at a discount [40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit declined to 3,367 yuan/ton [45]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 544,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 147,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The LME inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons due to LME warehousing [48][51][54]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: There is no specific description of price changes in the report. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [63]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price declined, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [68]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6%. Production increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity will remain high, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated and rebounded. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points. It is estimated that the aluminum water ratio will rebound in August [79]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: The aluminum ingot outbound volume remained basically flat (as of the week ending July 28) [84]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In June, the operating rates of aluminum rods, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods all declined, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but was recently weak [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak. The current real - estate data is also weak, automobile production and sales are acceptable, and photovoltaic installations have decreased significantly, and related demand is also under pressure [99]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 192,000 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has narrowed [102]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [13][108]. - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative import volume in the first six months was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative import volume of bauxite from January to June was 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina export volume from January to June was 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic black commodities have peaked and declined. With the approaching effective date of new US tariffs, market sentiment cooled significantly during the night session on Friday. If there are no unexpected statements from the domestic Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, market sentiment is expected to be under pressure. Domestically, the relatively low aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices. However, due to the off - season for downstream demand and weakening export demand, the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited, and overall prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is estimated to be 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 US dollars/ton [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [13]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 180,000 tons to 5.1 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot price was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.0 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss in domestic aluminum spot imports has widened [13]. - **Demand**: According to Aizec Consulting's research, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products continued to decline, and the operating conditions of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, bars, profiles, and alloys all weakened. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season, and most buyers in the aluminum spot market are cautious and waiting [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.22% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME Aluminum closed down 0.27% at 2,631 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Term Spread**: The monthly spread continued to decline [29]. - **Spot Basis**: The aluminum ingot basis in major domestic regions weakened [32]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: The spot prices in East and South China were relatively strong [37]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M had a slight premium [40]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit decreased to 3,729 yuan/ton, but the absolute level remained high [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to SMM data, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons [49]. - **Aluminum Bar Inventory**: The aluminum bar inventory was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum bars and ingots increased week - on - week [52]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons due to warehousing [55]. 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: No specific price change details were provided in the text. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [64]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [69]. 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In June, China's actual operating alumina capacity increased by 3.1%, the production rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with overall sufficient supply [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [77]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. In June, the aluminum water ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points and continued to rise slightly. It is expected to decline in July [80]. 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum bars, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods declined; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but recently showed weakness [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased compared to the actual production in the same period last year, indicating a weakening of overall home - appliance - related demand. Current real - estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [99]. 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss in aluminum ingot spot imports has widened [102]. - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5, most others will stop around mid - January, and some expect to stop after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4] - Finished steel prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down [4] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, the US PPI data in June was unexpectedly lower than expected, affected by the decline in service prices, and the market also focuses on the US fiscal and debt prospects and the pressure on Powell [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% [4] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag, and its bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year as of 2025. As of the end of June, alumina enterprises' in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons [4] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 492,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots [4]