以北京地区为例，当前北京地区银行执行的是首套房贷商贷利率为LPR减45个基点，结合最新LPR报价 来看，即3.05%；购买二套住房位于五环内的，商贷利率下限为LPR减5个基点，即3.45%；购买二套住 房位于五环外的，商贷利率下限为LPR减25个基点，即3.25%。 降息落地！事关数亿人的房贷成本，又将迎来下调。 5月20日，最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期和5年期以上LPR双双下降10个基点，其 中，1年期LPR降至3%，5年期以上LPR降至3.5%。 值得一提的是，这是LPR年内首降。其中，5年期LPR下调也关乎所有购房者的月供，随着下调，北京 首套房贷利率再度创下最低纪录。据北京商报记者测算，在北京地区，对于100万元贷款本金、30年 期、等额本息的个人按揭贷款而言，政策前后对比，其中月供额减少54元，总还款额（本金+利息）减 少1.96万元，具体到单月上，月供还款金额减少54元。 百万房贷立省近2万元 一如市场预期，在央行重磅预告后，LPR如期按下"下调键"。而其中引发全民关注的是，此次5年期 LPR的下调也将为购房者们省下一笔不小的支出。 值得一提的是，这也是自LPR捆绑房贷利率以来， ...

银行板块杀疯了，今日银行板块A股总市值盘中突破10万亿元大关，再创历史新高。 银行股今年简直所向披靡，今日银行指数上涨0.81%，多只银行ETF也创下上市以来的新高。根据数 据，银行指数今年已经上涨9.62%，位居板块涨幅榜的前列。2024年，银行板块表现亮眼，A股银行板 块累计上涨幅度为43%，跑赢沪深300指数28个百分点，在市场30个板块中居首位。去年，四大国有行 的股价表现十分吸睛，农业银行股价上涨幅度最大，达到了54.7%，工商银行上涨幅度达到52.4%，建 设银行、中国银行的股价上涨幅度分别为42.4%、45.2%。 2025年迄今，有11家银行的股价涨幅超过10%，其中5家银行的股价涨幅更是突破20%。青岛银行涨幅 最大，年初至今的涨幅为25.06%，紧随其后的是重庆银行和渝农商行，分别上涨25.13%和20.74%。此 外，上海银行、齐鲁银行的涨幅也都超过了21%。 数据显示，截至5月13日，银行板块A股市值达到99746亿元，创出历史新高。今天早盘，银行板块继续 上冲，银行板块A股总市值盘中突破10万亿元大关，再创历史新高。 相关机构分析表示，金融增量政策配合宽松财政政策加快落地，预计银行信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks will continue to narrow in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a consensus in the industry regarding the decline in asset-side yields. However, improvements in liability-side costs are expected to support a gradual stabilization of the NIM decline, with an overall better performance anticipated in 2025 compared to 2024 [1][4]. Asset Side Analysis - The yield on interest-earning assets for 42 listed banks in 2024 is projected to be 3.37%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28 basis points. Specifically, the loan yield is expected to be 3.72% (down 40 basis points), while investment asset yields are at 3.10% (down 18 basis points) [2]. - The structure of interest-earning assets shows that investment assets account for 34.34% of total interest-earning assets (up 0.65 percentage points), while loans make up 55.55% (up 0.02 percentage points). The increase in the proportion of investment and loan assets has a limited positive effect on overall NIM [2]. Liability Side Analysis - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities for the same group of banks is expected to be 1.98% in 2024, down 12 basis points year-on-year. The deposit cost is projected at 1.80% (down 15 basis points) [3]. - The structure of interest-bearing liabilities indicates that deposits account for 72.49% (up 0.24 percentage points), with a continuing trend towards the regularization of deposits. The proportion of interbank liabilities is 11.58% (down 0.35 percentage points) [3]. Future Outlook - For the full year of 2025, the NIM decline is expected to stabilize gradually, with an overall performance better than in 2024. The report highlights that the pressure from the three LPR cuts in 2024 will be concentrated in Q1 2025, alongside a batch reduction in existing mortgage rates [4]. - The current monetary and fiscal policies are expected to work in tandem, with the central bank's recent announcements indicating a clear intention to support NIM through measures such as rate cuts and self-discipline mechanisms for deposit rates [4]. Investment Recommendations - GF Securities recommends focusing on return on equity (ROE) as a benchmark for expected returns in the banking sector, with specific emphasis on regional economic alpha and low investment income ratios as sources of sustained excess returns. The banks highlighted for investment include China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Qingdao Bank [1].

资产端收益率下行压力与负债端成本缓释的博弈将加剧。 存量贷款重定价，尤其是按揭贷款部分，更将进一步放大这一压力，部分银行全年利息收入或进一步减 少。某大型银行信贷部经理对记者表示，未来若LPR进一步下调，审批贷款时收益空间将进一步缩窄， 比如按揭贷款业务，只能按照最低标准执行，而且存量按揭贷款客户在重定价周期后也会要求调整利 率，这将对利息收入产生不小的影响。 "这意味着，随着LPR的下调，银行新发放贷款的利率降低，利息收入增长受限，而存量贷款在重定价 周期中也会因利率下调而减少利息收益，从而压缩资产端的整体收益率，对净息差形成较大的下行压 力。"某银行业资深分析人士对记者表示。 记者注意到，信贷利率正处于历史低位。央行数据显示，2024年12月全社会新发贷款加权平均利率已降 至3.3%左右，同比下降约0.6个百分点；1年期和5年期以上LPR分别为3.1%和3.6%，分别较上年12月下 降0.35个和0.6个百分点；利率低于LPR的贷款占比为44.91%。 负债端成本压力或缓释 此次央行将存款准备金率下调 50bp，释放约1万亿元长期流动性，为银行负债端释放了成本空间，缓解 了相关压力。 根据东兴证券分析，静 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, highlighting it as a low-volatility dividend play in a counter-cyclical environment and a strong performer in absolute returns during a pro-cyclical phase [6]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in both revenue and net profit for listed banks, with revenue and net profit down 1.7% and 1.2% year-on-year, respectively. The main reasons for this decline were the expected decrease in interest margins and pressure from non-interest income [3][12]. - Loan growth has remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in the first quarter. Notably, banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as Chengdu, continue to show strong economic performance, while Chongqing has emerged as a new growth area with loan growth exceeding 16% [3][4]. - The average net interest margin for listed banks was 1.54% in the first quarter, reflecting a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 2 basis points, supported by a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [4][12]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks decreased to 1.23%, with an estimated annualized NPL generation rate of approximately 0.63% [5][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-dividend yield banks, particularly those with solid provisions and growth opportunities in favorable policy environments [6][19]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant impact from the decline in interest margins and non-interest income, leading to a negative growth in both revenue and profit for listed banks [10][12]. - The report indicates that the performance of state-owned banks was below expectations, while city and rural commercial banks generally met expectations [3][19]. Loan and Credit Analysis - Loan growth has been stable, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in the first quarter. The report highlights that the demand for loans from small and medium-sized enterprises has weakened, affecting the growth rates of rural commercial banks [3][4]. Interest Margin and Cost Analysis - The report notes that the average net interest margin for listed banks improved slightly, with a quarter-on-quarter increase attributed to a reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [4][12]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The NPL ratio for listed banks decreased to 1.23%, with proactive measures taken to manage and dispose of non-performing assets [5][19]. - The report indicates that the retail sector is experiencing some risk exposure, but overall asset quality remains stable [5][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with high dividend yields and solid fundamentals, particularly those that are well-positioned to benefit from favorable policy changes [6][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 6.24 CNY, compared to the current price of 5.35 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The bank's liabilities continue to show advantages, while retail business is expected to recover gradually. The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline in operating income by 0.07% year-on-year, and a decrease in net profit by 2.62% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 20 percentage points to 266% [2][3][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Operating Income and Profit**: In Q1 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 893.63 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 0.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 252.46 billion CNY, down 2.62% year-on-year [2][3]. - **Loan and Deposit Growth**: The bank's loans and deposits grew by 9.8% and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively. Corporate loans increased by 15.2%, while retail loans grew by 4.3% [8]. - **Interest Margin**: The net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 1.69% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in asset yield [8]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio rose to 0.91%, with an annualized net generation rate of 0.94%. The bank is expected to maintain manageable levels of retail loan non-performing rates as the economy recovers [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The forecast for revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 is 1.0%, 3.6%, and 6.4%, respectively. Net profit growth is projected at 1.1%, 2.0%, and 5.0% for the same period [8][9]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current valuation is at 0.6 times the 2025 price-to-book ratio, with a target price set at 6.24 CNY based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 0.7 times [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ruifeng Bank with a target price of 6.86 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - Ruifeng Bank's Q1 2025 results show stable asset quality and a recovery in net interest margin, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 5.12% and a net profit increase of 6.69% [2][7]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.97%, while the provision coverage ratio has increased to 326% [2][7]. - The report highlights the bank's solid growth in retail loans and an improved loan structure, despite a slight slowdown in overall loan growth [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.109 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 5.12% [2][7]. - Operating profit for the same period was 396 million CNY, up 4.04% year-on-year [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 424 million CNY, reflecting a 6.69% increase year-on-year [2][7]. - The bank's interest income grew by 2.68% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in net interest income [7]. Asset Quality and Loan Growth - The bank's total interest-earning assets grew by 11.4% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 11.7% [7]. - The report notes a decrease in corporate loan growth, while retail loans continue to show strong performance [7]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.97%, with a slight increase in the net generation rate of non-performing loans [10][12]. Cost and Efficiency Metrics - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 27.27%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The bank successfully reduced the cost of liabilities, with the interest-bearing liability cost rate decreasing to 1.97% [7]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenue growth rates of 5.4%, 8.1%, and 11.9% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]. - Net profit growth is expected to be 8.4%, 10.7%, and 11.1% for the same years [7]. - The bank's valuation is currently at 0.51 times the 2025 price-to-book ratio, with a target price set at 0.67 times [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ruifeng Bank [6]. Core Views - Ruifeng Bank's Q1 2025 performance shows revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million yuan, up 6.69% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio at the end of Q1 2025 were 0.97% and 326.08%, respectively, remaining stable and improving by 5.2 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [1][2]. Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: In Q1 2025, operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 5.12% and 6.69% year-on-year, with respective declines of 10.2 percentage points and 4.6 percentage points compared to 2024. The net interest income increased by 2.68% year-on-year, with a net interest margin of 1.46%, down 4 basis points from the previous year [2]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio remained at 0.97%, while the attention loan ratio increased by 9 basis points to 1.54%. The provision coverage ratio improved by 5.2 percentage points to 326.08% [3]. - **Asset and Liability Growth**: Total assets and loans at the end of Q1 2025 were 229.3 billion yuan and 136.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.07% and 11.67%. Deposits increased by 13.83% year-on-year, primarily driven by personal time deposits [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit growth rates for 2025 are projected at 9.98% and 8.24%, respectively. The report anticipates continued stable growth in loans within the region and an increase in market share for Ruifeng Bank, alongside improvements in asset quality, which may enhance profit potential [4][5].

近日，江西裕民银行公告，该行行长宋源的任职资格获批，自4月10日起，宋源就任该行行长。在此之 前，该行行长职位已空悬逾3年。 新任行长为公开"海选" 据江西裕民银行公告，此前该行董事会组织开展行长候选人公开招聘和遴选工作，最终选定宋源为拟任行长人 选，并报国家金融监督管理总局江西监管局核准。因此，新任行长系公开海选而来。 资料显示，宋源现年55岁，拥有丰富的国有大行、民营银行任职经历，在银行业工作超30年。 1992年起至2017年，宋源在农行系统内供职，曾任中国农业银行湖南省分行风险管理处处长、公司业务处处 长，中国农业银行浙江台州分行党委副书记、副行长，中国农业银行湖南省湘西分行党委书记、行长，中国农 业银行湖南省长沙分行党委书记、行长等职。 2017年7月，宋源加入湖南的民营银行湖南三湘银行，出任该行首席风险官，后续出任副行长至本次履新。 宋源为江西裕民银行成立以来的第二位行长——2021年，该行原行长胡晓晖辞任后，该行行长职位空悬已有3 年半之久。宋源上任后，加上副行长郑徐兵、曾友红，该行管理层或呈"一正二副"格局。 资料显示，该行董事长余红永曾长期供职于央行及邮政储蓄银行系统，历任中国人民银行婺源县 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on China's banking industry is profound, leading to additional pressure on loan demand and net interest margins, while asset quality remains stable. The investment value of bank stocks is highlighted, particularly for large banks, China Merchants Bank, and quality city commercial banks [7][12][14] Summary by Sections 1. Impact Mechanism of "Reciprocal Tariffs" on Bank Stocks - The economic impact includes weakened external demand, pressuring the credit demand and asset quality of banks [12][14] - Policy measures may boost retail credit demand through increased monetary easing [12][14] - Investment sentiment shifts towards banks due to enhanced dividend value amidst rising risk aversion [12][14] 2. Credit Demand: Pressure Points and Support - Economic growth pressure leads to declining credit growth, with a potential credit increment shortfall of CNY 2.139 billion in 2025 [15][19] - Export-related customer demand is expected to decline, while consumption-related customers may receive support from policy measures [27][28] 3. Net Interest Margin: Pressure Points and Support - A decline in credit growth could lead to a 14 basis points drop in net interest margins [33] - Monetary policy adjustments, including potential rate cuts, may exert additional pressure on margins [33][34] - The long-term outlook suggests that net interest margins are nearing their bottom, estimated at 1.24% [39][46] 4. Asset Quality: Pressure Points and Support - The impact on asset quality is manageable, with export-related sectors facing direct effects from tariffs [48] - The real estate sector's pressure is expected to ease, while retail sector non-performing loans may improve under supportive policies [48] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the dividend characteristics of bank stocks, recommending a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [7][12][14]