Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in major U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which fell by 2.5% amid disappointing employment data and renewed inflation concerns [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, far below the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by nearly 260,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - Historically, August has been a challenging month for the U.S. stock market, especially for growth stocks, with the Nasdaq's average monthly gain in August being only 0.3% since 1971, making it the second worst month of the year [1] Group 2 - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Amazon dropping over 6%, Nvidia down over 3%, and Tesla, Meta, Google, and Apple all falling between 1% to 2% [1] - The market sentiment has turned bearish, with short-sellers gaining momentum following the disappointing employment report, leading to increased selling pressure [1] - The article suggests that the market landscape may become increasingly fragile as inflation concerns resurface and hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September diminish [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

中国基金报记者 张舟 美东时间7月29日周二，美国三大股指集体收跌，脸书、特斯拉等热门科技股领跌拖累大盘表现，减肥药巨头诺和诺德跌超21%。中概股多数下跌，理想 汽车领跌。 星巴克、Visa等多家公司发布关键业绩数据，带动盘后股价表现。 【导读】美股全线下跌，减肥药巨头诺和诺德跌超21%；特朗普：对普京"十分失望" 今日，市场焦点转向美联储FOMC公布利率决议。市场普遍认为美联储将维持利率区间不变，不过特朗普多次要求美联储降息，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会 在会议上有所表态。 三大股指全线收跌 热门科技股领跌拖累市场 截至收盘，道指跌0.46%，报44632.99点；标普500指数跌0.30%，报6370.86点；纳指跌0.38%，报21098.29点。 热门科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.59%，脸书跌超2%，特斯拉、苹果、英特尔跌超1%，但谷歌涨1.56%。 | 序号 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | 总市值 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 脸书(META PLATFORMS) | | 700.000 | -2.46% | ...

来源：许安鸿 周一（7月28日）美元指数大幅上扬，盘中突破98关口后持续走高，最终收涨1%，报98.633。美债收益率多数上行，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.417%， 2年期美债收益率收报3.93%。受累于美元走强和风险情绪回温，现货黄金连跌四日，美盘短线跳水，一度逼近3300美元大关，随后有所反弹，最终收跌 0.66%，收报3314.78美元/盎司。 随着特朗普表示考虑缩短俄乌和平协议50天期限，国际原油反弹。WTI原油期货最终收涨2.91%，报66.94美元/桶，创两周新高。从近期的高频数据来看，原 油市场仍保持一定的旺季特征，基于炼厂开工和汽油需求的良好预期，现阶段油价具备有效的基本面支撑。全球主要市场油品综合库存整体下行，去库趋势 对近端走势仍有一定支撑，但终端对裂解价差的反馈并不稳固，后期OPEC+增产兑现叠加需求自然走弱，供需错配可能带来新的下行风险。 油价上周五反弹逼近67关口后回落，回吐了全部反弹，最终收阴，但是周一没能延续其跌势，而是反弹再度站上67关口，最终收涨近3%。油价目前走势偏 震荡，下方迟迟未能跌破64一线的支撑，上方也难站上70关口，暂时还是区间震荡对待。四小时线，油价昨日表 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff situation cooling down suppresses the market's risk - aversion tone, causing gold and silver prices to decline during the session. The framework trade agreement between the US and the EU on the 27th reduces concerns about global trade frictions and supports short - term market risk appetite [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has led to a slight recovery of the spot gold price from a two - week low, mainly due to risk mitigation from the US - EU agreement and increased overseas buying demand. However, as market risk appetite improves, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset has decreased [2]. - Future potential driving factors include the Fed's policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is strengthened, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. If the subsequent PCE growth rate is significantly lower than expected, it may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2510 is 760 - 800 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2510 is 8900 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold's main contract closing price is 774.78 yuan/gram, down 2.54; Shanghai Silver's main contract closing price is 9212 yuan/kilogram, down 180 [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 209,675 lots, down 2,176; those of Shanghai Silver are 398,421 lots, down 52,406 [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold's main contract are 156,633 lots, down 424; those of Shanghai Silver are 129,149 lots, down 3,391 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 30,258 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 1,208,269 kilograms, up 21,015 [2]. - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 770.19 yuan/gram, down 3.01; the silver spot price is 9146 yuan/kilogram, down 245 [2]. - The basis of Shanghai Gold's main contract is - 4.12 yuan/gram, down 0.48; that of Shanghai Silver is 1 yuan/kilogram, up 36 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.09 tons, up 2.29; silver ETF holdings are 15,207.82 tons, unchanged [2]. - Gold's CFTC non - commercial net positions are 213,115 contracts, up 10,147; silver's CTFC non - commercial net positions are 59,448 contracts, up 927 [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 12.24%, up 0.06; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.76%, down 0.19 [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, down 0.03; that of at - the - money put options is 21.08%, down 0.03 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. Trump said the agreement would impose a 15% tariff on most European goods exported to the US. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment, and purchase $750 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs, and details of the trade agreement framework will be announced in the next few weeks [2]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said Trump's patience for Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict is running out [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.6% [2].

Group 1 - The dollar index continues to show an upward trend, currently reported at 97.70 with a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this month, but plans for a high-rate policy exit are underway, with no rate cuts anticipated on July 30 [1][2] - Employment growth remains strong, but concerns about underlying economic vulnerabilities are emerging, particularly as nearly 90% of new jobs in recent years have come from government, leisure, hospitality, and healthcare sectors [2] Group 2 - Core economic growth engines such as technology and manufacturing are underperforming, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [3] - The impact of Trump's tariff comments on inflation may be temporary, with stable energy prices and moderate wage growth expected to alleviate inflationary pressures [4] - The market is speculating on a potential rate cut in September, but it may be premature, with the Fed possibly waiting until December to act [4] Group 3 - The dollar's performance has been volatile this month, but short-term yields are expected to rise, providing support for the dollar, especially if Powell maintains a hawkish stance [4] - Strong non-farm payroll data could further enhance the dollar's rebound potential, particularly against low-yield currencies like the yen and Swiss franc [4] - Current resistance for the dollar index is at 97.90, with support around 97.00 [5]

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, driven by a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[2][5] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly, with an increase of only 74,000 jobs, down from 137,000 in May[8] Wage and Labor Market Trends - Hourly wage growth on a year-over-year basis decreased to 3.7%, down from 3.8% in May[9] - The average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, a decrease of 0.1 hours from the previous month[16] - Labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%[17] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for July have decreased, with market pricing reflecting a cumulative cut of 51 basis points by 2025, down from 61 basis points[2][5] - The report indicates potential risks to employment growth in Q3 due to tariffs and immigration slowdowns, leading to a forecast of two preventive rate cuts in September and December[5][6] - The NFIB's hiring intentions suggest an increased risk of weakening job growth in the coming months[10]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is that the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data for June significantly impacted the gold market, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices due to stronger-than-expected employment figures and a decrease in the unemployment rate [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an addition of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market [1] - Following the data release, the gold price dropped nearly 1%, falling from around $3,350 to approximately $3,310, while COMEX gold futures also experienced a decline of 0.68% [1] Group 2 - The reaction in the interest rate futures market was pronounced, with the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in July rising from 76.7% to 93.3%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut plummeted from 23.3% to 6.7% [2] - The COMEX gold futures positioning data revealed that large institutional investors had begun to reduce their long positions before the non-farm data was released, with a total reduction of over 6,000 contracts [3] - This reduction in long positions reflects a shift in market sentiment, as strong non-farm data diminished expectations for rapid rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, decreasing the relative attractiveness of non-yielding gold [3]

Economic Focus - Goldman Sachs highlights that the most pressing issue currently extends beyond just the non-farm payroll data [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 126,000, but previous months' data was revised down by 95,000 jobs, with March's figures cut from 185,000 to 120,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, but this stability was due to a decrease of nearly 600,000 in the labor force, indicating a discrepancy between employer hiring intentions and household employment reports [3] - Average hourly wages increased by 0.4% in May, with a year-over-year rise of 3.9%, attributed to a tighter labor market rather than employer generosity, as full-time positions decreased by 620,000 [3][5] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector lost 8,000 jobs in May, signaling potential economic concerns, while the federal government cut 22,000 jobs, totaling nearly 60,000 cuts since January [5] - Some sectors, such as healthcare, added 62,000 jobs, and hospitality industries also saw growth, but the sustainability of these positions under economic pressure is questionable [5] - There was a notable decrease in both native-born and foreign-born workers, with 440,000 and 220,000 fewer workers respectively, highlighting the challenges in the job market [7] Group 3 - The overall employment data presents a façade of growth, but underlying issues suggest instability, with the labor market showing signs of weakening despite reported job increases [8]