Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a significant miss with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a total of 258,000, raising concerns about data reliability and potential political influence on economic statistics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Revision - The substantial downward revision of May and June data was attributed to additional survey results collected after the initial data release and recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors [2][3]. - Non-farm employment data is based on surveys from approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies, with initial values published based on about 60% of the data received [2]. - Seasonal adjustment models may lag behind structural economic changes, leading to significant deviations in initial values, especially during periods of economic uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Policy - The weak employment data has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may follow a similar pattern as last year, where it maintained rates in July but cut rates significantly in September [4]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained its target federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% for five consecutive meetings, citing economic uncertainty and the need for more data [4][5]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts, with two members voting against the consensus for the first time since 1993 [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the release of the non-farm data, there was a panic in the markets, with U.S. Treasury yields dropping, and both the dollar and U.S. stocks declining, while gold prices rose [7]. - Market expectations indicate a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut if labor market weakness persists [6][7]. - The anticipated rate cut could lead to improved global liquidity, benefiting overseas markets such as Hong Kong and A-shares, while potentially putting pressure on U.S. dollar assets [7].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since 1979, which is 4-5 times the normal adjustment range [1][2][5] - The analysis indicates that current employment data holds more predictive power regarding economic trends than historical revisions, maintaining the expectation of no interest rate cuts until 2025 [1][9] Employment Data Revision - The July employment report revealed unexpected large downward revisions for the previous two months: June's non-farm employment was revised from 147,000 to only 14,000, a reduction of 133,000; May's data was adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000, a drop of 125,000, totaling a net revision of 258,000 [2][3] - Historically, from March 1979 to July 2025, the average net revision has been an upward adjustment of 1,200 jobs, making this downward revision the largest in 46 years when excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Statistical Analysis - The average absolute value of historical revisions is 56,000 jobs, with a standard deviation of 61,000; thus, the 258,000 job revision is statistically significant and considered an outlier [5] - Using a Probit regression model, Morgan Stanley found that while the large downward revision correlates with an increased recession probability, the effect is limited, raising the likelihood of recession by only 9 percentage points [9] Current Employment Signals - The July report showed an addition of 73,000 jobs, which is deemed more critical than the previous downward revisions; the current employment data is viewed as a stronger indicator of economic health [9] - Other indicators from the July report, such as moderate wage growth, slight increases in hours worked, and low unemployment rates, suggest that these current signals are more relevant than the historical downward adjustments [9] - Despite acknowledging that the downward revisions indicate a faster-than-expected slowdown in labor demand, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of no interest rate cuts through 2025, suggesting that recession risks remain elevated but not at a level that would alter the overall economic outlook [9]

特朗普表示，非农就业数据是由前美国总统拜登任命的官员编制的，非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让他看起来很糟糕，劳工统计局对近期数据的修订是“彻头彻尾的骗局”。特朗普称，已指示团队立即解雇这位拜登的政治任命官员。这一官员将由一位更有能力、更有资历的人取代。这类重要的数据必须公平、准确，不能被用于政治操纵。特朗普说，对于下一任劳工统计局（BLS）局长，有许多的人选，脑子里有三个人选，要求下一任BLS局长是一个“诚实的人”。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国劳工统计局：5月份非农新增就业人数从14.4万人修正至1.9万人；6月份非农新增就业人数从14.7万人修正至1.4万人。修正后，5月和6月新增就业人数合计较修正前低25.8万人。 ...

美国总统特朗普：今天的非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让我看起来很糟糕。劳工统计局对近期数据的修 订是"彻头彻尾的骗局"。美联储主席鲍威尔也没有比"被操纵的"就业数据好到哪里去。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights President Trump's assertion that today's non-farm payroll data has been manipulated to portray him negatively [1] Group 1 - President Trump claims that the non-farm employment data is being manipulated [1] - The manipulation of data is suggested to be aimed at making Trump appear unfavorable [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized the employment data compiled by officials appointed by former President Biden, indicating a need for accurate employment statistics and suggesting the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director [1] Employment Data Summary - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 73,000 in non-farm payrolls for July, with the previous two months' data revised down by nearly 260,000 [1] - Over the past three months, the average growth in non-farm payrolls was only 35,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Bostic emphasized the significance of non-farm payroll data and indicated that there is no readiness to raise expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Group 1 - Bostic highlighted the importance of non-farm employment data in assessing economic conditions [1] - The current stance does not support an increase in expectations for rate cuts before 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in major U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which fell by 2.5% amid disappointing employment data and renewed inflation concerns [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, far below the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by nearly 260,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - Historically, August has been a challenging month for the U.S. stock market, especially for growth stocks, with the Nasdaq's average monthly gain in August being only 0.3% since 1971, making it the second worst month of the year [1] Group 2 - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Amazon dropping over 6%, Nvidia down over 3%, and Tesla, Meta, Google, and Apple all falling between 1% to 2% [1] - The market sentiment has turned bearish, with short-sellers gaining momentum following the disappointing employment report, leading to increased selling pressure [1] - The article suggests that the market landscape may become increasingly fragile as inflation concerns resurface and hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September diminish [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

中国基金报记者 张舟 美东时间7月29日周二，美国三大股指集体收跌，脸书、特斯拉等热门科技股领跌拖累大盘表现，减肥药巨头诺和诺德跌超21%。中概股多数下跌，理想 汽车领跌。 星巴克、Visa等多家公司发布关键业绩数据，带动盘后股价表现。 【导读】美股全线下跌，减肥药巨头诺和诺德跌超21%；特朗普：对普京"十分失望" 今日，市场焦点转向美联储FOMC公布利率决议。市场普遍认为美联储将维持利率区间不变，不过特朗普多次要求美联储降息，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会 在会议上有所表态。 三大股指全线收跌 热门科技股领跌拖累市场 截至收盘，道指跌0.46%，报44632.99点；标普500指数跌0.30%，报6370.86点；纳指跌0.38%，报21098.29点。 热门科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.59%，脸书跌超2%，特斯拉、苹果、英特尔跌超1%，但谷歌涨1.56%。 | 序号 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | 总市值 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 脸书(META PLATFORMS) | | 700.000 | -2.46% | ...