Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; non-tax revenue was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.5 percentage points [1] - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, slowing by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with tax revenue growth dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% and non-tax revenue turning negative at -2.2% [2] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points [1] - In May, general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slowing by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in infrastructure spending, which fell by 7.7% [4] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education and health spending grew by 6.7% and 3.9%, respectively [4] Group 3: Economic Analysis - The slowdown in revenue is attributed to factors such as the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), the unsustainable high growth of non-tax revenue, and weakened land transfer income [1] - The analysis indicates that the increase in value-added tax revenue reflects a trend of economic recovery, supported by robust growth in the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, especially in light of the revenue slowdown and strong expenditure performance in the first four months [5]

金十数据6月20日讯，1—5月，全国一般公共预算收入96623亿元，同比下降0.3%。其中，全国税收收 入79156亿元，同比下降1.6%；非税收入17467亿元，同比增长6.2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共 预算收入41486亿元，同比下降3%；地方一般公共预算本级收入55137亿元，同比增长1.9%。 1—5月， 全国一般公共预算支出112953亿元，同比增长4.2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本级支出 15792亿元，同比增长9.4%；地方一般公共预算支出97161亿元，同比增长3.4%。 财政部：1—5月全国一般公共预算收入96623亿元 同比下降0.3% ...

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

从财政收入看，1—4月全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百分点。分 中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入下降3.8%，降幅比一季度收窄1.9个百分点，其中4月份增长1.6%，今年 以来首月实现正增长；地方一般公共预算收入增长2.2%，增幅与一季度持平。 从收入来源看，1—4月全国税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点，其中4月税 收收入同比增长1.9%，今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正；全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多 渠道盘活资产等带动。 广发证券宏观分析师吴棋滢指出，2025年一般公共预算收入目标同比增速仅有0.1%，全年实现收入目标难度 不大。但在结构上，目前财政收入增幅仍依赖于非税收入带动。 财政部5月20日公布的2025年1—4月财政收支数据显示，在国际环境更趋复杂严峻，外部冲击影响加大的背 景下，1—4月全国公共财政收入累计降幅继续收窄，公共财政支出进度达到2020年以来同期最快；4月全国 税收收入同比增长1.9%，为今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正。 校对： 刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 在主要税收收入项目中，1 ...

2025 年 03 月 25 日 狭义财政支出更"用力" 宏观研究团队 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 点 评 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 相关研究报告 总体看，年度预算草案中预计全年税收收入增长 3.7%，前两月暂时未达到目标， 尽管个税在低基数下大幅抬升，但多数税种持平或负增；好的方面是，非税收 入退坡初步得到验证，若后续经济回升的动能增强，税收收入有望稳步改善。 2、1-2 月财政支出强度高于季节性水平。1-2 月公共财政支出 45096 亿元，同比 《基建开工仍处于历史同期低位—宏 观周报》-2025.3.23 《美联储强调不确定性，降息或将更 加灵活—3 月 FOMC 会议点评》 -2025.3.20 《生育补贴的经济账：从促生育到稳 增长—兼评 2 月经济数据》-2025.3.18 ——宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 shenmeichen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：1-2 月，全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元，全国一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元。政府性基 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭等 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯 倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 摘要 申万宏源宏观 . 强化非税收入，中西地区加力盘活国有资源，东部加强国有资本经营收入。 中西部地区中，山西、内蒙 古、新疆非税收入增速均超20%，或主因矿产等资源出让收入带动；东部地区，北京积极扩大市属机关所 办企业上缴收益试点范围，促使国有资本经营收入增长97%。 二问：2024年地方政府性基金表现？土地出让收入拖累明显，超长期特别国债有效支撑 2024年地方本级政府性基金收入下降明显，支出小幅正增长。 2024年地方本级政府性基金收入同 比-13.5%，支出同比0.4%。从各地财政预算执行报告来看，西藏外的30个地区中，仅8地政府性基金收入 实现增长；22个地区政府性基金收入明显下滑。 部分地区通过项目建设与投资收入补充地方本级政府性基金收入。 拆解贵州政府性基金收入可发现， 2024年其国家重大水利工程建设基金收入与大中型水库库区基金收入分别增长127.6%、69.8%，使得贵州 本级政府性基金收入总体增长1.5 ...