Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Core Viewpoint - The story of Mr. Wen selling 8 kilograms of gold for 6.12 million yuan, resulting in a net profit of 3.12 million yuan, highlights the potential for significant returns in gold investment, with a return rate of 130% and an average annual yield exceeding 20% [1][10]. Investment Success Factors - Mr. Wen's success was attributed to his precise timing in purchasing gold when prices were low, around 300 yuan per gram in 2019, amidst a pessimistic market environment [2][4]. - His patience and determination allowed him to hold onto his gold despite market fluctuations, avoiding the common pitfall of reacting to short-term price movements [4][10]. - Mr. Wen's asset allocation strategy demonstrated a diversified investment approach, choosing to invest in gold during uncertain economic times, which helped mitigate overall asset risk [4][12]. Gold Market Environment Analysis - The global economic landscape has been complex, with geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][9]. - Central banks worldwide have significantly increased their gold reserves, with a record 1,136 tons added in 2023, indicating gold's importance in asset allocation [7]. - Domestic markets have seen underperformance in real estate and stock markets, leading investors to seek opportunities in gold for asset preservation and growth [9]. Insights for Ordinary Investors - The case of Mr. Wen emphasizes the importance of having a forward-looking investment perspective, understanding market trends, and making informed decisions [10][12]. - Patience and discipline are crucial for investment success, as good investments often require time to mature, and investors should avoid emotional reactions to market volatility [10][12]. - A well-rounded asset allocation strategy is essential, advocating for diversification across different asset classes to buffer against poor performance in any single investment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by easing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and a shift in fund flows from gold ETFs [1][2]. Geopolitical Situation - The recent easing of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, has weakened the safe-haven appeal of gold. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing great power competition continue to pose long-term geopolitical risks that may support gold prices in the future. Following the ceasefire agreement, COMEX gold futures experienced a drop of over 2% [1]. Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are inconsistent. The latest CME "FedWatch" indicates an 81.9% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 76% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by September. Stronger-than-expected PCE data and tariff policies from the Trump administration may delay the rate cut timeline, suppressing gold price rebounds. However, if subsequent economic data shows weakness, it could strengthen demand for gold as a safe haven [1]. Fund Flows - According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETF demand turned negative in May, with North American and Asian funds leading the decline. This marks the first monthly net outflow from global gold ETFs, with total assets under management decreasing by 1% month-over-month. The shift in fund flows is putting pressure on the gold market [1]. Market Outlook - Gold is currently in a short-term downward trend due to reduced market risk appetite stemming from geopolitical easing and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies. However, long-term factors such as global debt issues and great power competition may reactivate gold's safe-haven attributes. Future expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts could also drive gold prices higher. Short-term attention should be on the breakout situation in the $3250 - $3280 range, as well as the outcomes of tariff negotiations on July 9 and Federal Reserve policy developments [2].

Group 1 - Recent significant decline in gold prices attributed to multiple factors, including a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the U.S., which reduced market risk aversion and diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The fragile nature of the ceasefire, with both sides accusing each other of violations and criticism from Trump, raises doubts about its sustainability, casting a shadow over the gold market outlook [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's signals of not rushing to cut interest rates in July have led to a surge in the dollar index, resulting in gold sell-offs [1] Group 2 - Gold faced strong selling pressure after reaching a critical price level of 3350, dropping to a low of around 3310 during the trading session [3] - Technical analysis indicates strong resistance in the 3335-3344 range and support in the 3314-3309 range, with the market currently exhibiting a volatile pattern [3] - Suggested trading strategies include buying on dips between 3313-3307 with a target of 3325-3344 and selling on rebounds between 3329-3333 with a target of 3320-3312 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold [6] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the gold market from multiple aspects including price trends, inflation, interest rates, supply - demand, and the US economy. It concludes that while the gold market has an upward impetus due to the ongoing Israel - Iran conflict and the continuous presence of its hedging property, factors such as the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. Overall, the long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes have been 28.44% and 26.07% respectively, and last week they decreased by 1.83% and 1.99% respectively [4][16] 2. Inflation - In June 2022, the CPI data reached a new high of 9.1% and then declined moderately. The PCE also peaked and declined in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded for the first time, and the decline rate of core inflation slowed down or even rebounded. In May 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5%, and the previous value was 2.3%. The core CPI was 2.8% year - on - year, with an expected 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%. In April 2025, the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%. The PCE price index increased by 2.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3% [4][19] 3. Interest Rates - From mid - to late October 2023, the interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds fluctuated downward until January 2025. Since February 2024, the US treasury bond interest rate has fluctuated and rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high, and recently fluctuated widely near the 2024 low [4][22] 4. Supply - Demand - When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to the rise of the gold price, but when it is in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand looseness decreased, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In 2024, the domestic gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand decreased significantly year - on - year, but the domestic gold supply - demand was still in a tight balance, mainly due to a large increase in gold bars and coins. In the first quarter of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4][34] 5. US Economy - In May 2025, the number of new jobs in the US was 139,000, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The data from January to April was revised downward. In May 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4% compared with the previous value of 0.3%, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The non - farm employment data in May 2025 continued to be better than expected. The US GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 2.06% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.47%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 48.5, declining for four consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.9, dropping significantly again, perhaps affected by reciprocal tariffs [4][30] 6. Strategy and Outlook - The gold futures main contract continued its weak adjustment last Friday. The Israel - Iran conflict remained moderate. As long as the conflict persists, the hedging property of gold remains. Therefore, the report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high. However, the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. The current main contradiction in the gold market is the hedging function of gold. The long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged. Technically, the support level for Shanghai Gold is 775 - 780 yuan. It is recommended to hold existing long positions for observation, and those with empty positions are advised to go long. For options, it is recommended to mainly buy call options [6] 7. Central Bank Gold Transactions - In the first quarter of 2025, the global central bank's gold purchase volume decreased compared with the fourth quarter of last year but still had a net purchase of 243.67 tons. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously purchased gold. After six consecutive months without gold purchases, it continuously purchased gold from November 2024 to April 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, the central bank purchased 12.75 tons, 2.18 tons in April, and 1.87 tons in May [37] 8. ETF Demand - In 2023, the gold holding of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons. In 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons. As of June 20, last week, the gold ETFs significantly increased their holdings by 11.74 tons, and the gold holding in 2025 increased by 116.04 tons [40] 9. Exchange Rates and Dollar Index - The report does not provide specific analysis conclusions on exchange rates and the dollar index, only presenting relevant data charts 10. Gold Price Spread and Ratio - Last week, the spread between the domestic and foreign gold markets was at a normal level. The report also presented charts of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio but did not provide specific analysis conclusions [62]

实时黄金订单流分析 中东局势再起波澜！黄金能否再度发挥避险属性？后市行情怎么看？顺姐正在用订单流分析，点击观看 相关链接 ...

CPI数据前瞻直播中 黄金避险属性再受考验，今晚CPI如何布局？市场情绪是否已改变？实战交易员Rinly正在直播分析中， 点击马上观看！ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming US CPI data, with gold prices experiencing fluctuations and adjustments while maintaining a bullish outlook for the year [1][4][9]. Market Performance - On June 10, gold opened at $3325.40 per ounce, reached a low of $3301.75, and later peaked at $3348.78 before closing at $3322.33, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $47.03 and a slight decline of 0.092% [1]. - The market sentiment is cautious, influenced by strong US non-farm payroll data, which has bolstered the dollar and pressured gold prices [4][8]. Economic Indicators - The US CPI data is anticipated to rise, which may reduce interest rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a temporary decline in gold prices. However, this could also enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6][9]. - Current market conditions reflect a strong expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability close to 60% [9]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a bullish trend, supported by the upward trend line established since March, despite recent volatility [11][15]. - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend, while the weekly chart shows potential support at the middle band [13][15]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of reaching $3500 or higher within the year, despite short-term fluctuations [6][9][15]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities during pullbacks, as the long-term trend remains bullish [11][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (expected to outperform the market index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [66] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is marginally improving, which is expected to elevate the price center of industrial metals [4] - For precious metals, particularly gold, the resilience of the U.S. labor market is anticipated to support a long-term bullish trend for gold, driven by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening U.S. dollar [3][6] - In the copper market, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and the global demand for refined copper is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities [6] - The aluminum sector is expected to see prices rise due to a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic demand anticipated to grow under supportive policies [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.54% to $3,331 per ounce as of June 6 [3] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.4% to 934.2 tons, indicating a stable demand for gold amid macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Industrial Metals Copper - As of June 6, LME copper futures rose by 1.8% to $9,670.5 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 148,800 tons, reflecting a slight increase [5] - The LME copper inventory stood at 132,400 tons, showing a positive trend in demand resilience [5] Aluminum - LME aluminum futures increased by 0.1% to $2,451.5 per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 504,000 tons, indicating a slight decrease [5] - The global electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, supporting price stability [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors due to their favorable market conditions [6] - Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, Zijin Mining for copper, and Tianshan Aluminum for aluminum [6]

黄金走势分析：通常情况下，在大幅上涨后出现犹豫不决的信号，市场预期可能会出现一定程度的回调。考虑到黄金的涨幅之大，这种可能性确实存在。但 我们需要回顾月线图上的其他十字星形态，并非每一次犹豫不决都意味着趋势反转。然而，这确实标志着市场可能发生变化，这也是我们进入6月交易时需 要关注的要点。首先就是关注非农数据，也是突破方向的重要因素。 现在非农数据公布在即，行情走势偏缓，本周的部分数据显示美国经济疲软，特别是周三小非农数据公布值3.7低于预期与前值，大幅利好金价；昨晚初请 数据也大于预期与前值，更加确认老美经济存在放缓或衰退的风险；这点在小非农数据公布后特朗普又攻击鲍威尔要求尽早降息也能反映出来。消息面上， 特朗普关税政策的反复叠加地缘冲突两者不断提振金价的避险属性，这几点都是利好金价的，所以还是去看好金价，做多金价。 技术面上来看，金价自周一的避险助涨突破前期的下行趋势线后，本周整体都处于此趋势线上方交投，故而金价中期上还是偏于一个震荡看涨的走势。在昨 晚之前我们可以说是在破位趋势线之后多头有些乏力（毕竟上破都是消息面的助攻），但是昨晚破位3392后需要去调整思路，今日主要看非农公布情况后再 去重新构思本月 ...