昨日白银、黄金纷纷创下新高，面对贵金属市场的剧烈波动，芝商所正在改变游戏规则，将贵金属保证 金收取方式从"固定"改为"浮动"！ 根据芝商所1月12日发布的通知，根据对市场波动性的正常审查，为确保充足的抵押品覆盖，将改变黄 金、白银、铂、钯合约的保证金设定方式，由此前的按照固定金额收取保证金，改为按照合约名义价值 的一定比例计算保证金。相关费率将从1月13日收盘后生效。 部分非高风险组合黄金合约的保证金比例将调整为名义价值的约5%，白银约为9%。交易所表示，这一 决定基于对市场波动性的正常审查，旨在确保充足的抵押品覆盖。 | CC | Rate Type | Description | Change ISO | Current | Current | New Initial | New | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Initial | Maintenance | | Maintenance | | Outright Rates | | | | | | | | | | | | METALS - Outright Rate ...

开源证券：AI泡沫仍尚早 但累计涨幅可能需要消化 凤凰网财经讯 1月13日，A股三大指数集体高开，沪指涨0.11%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指涨0.07%。 以GEO、制药为首等AI应用方向领涨市场。 机构观点 东吴证券：市场对美联储降息预期推迟，港股反弹更要看分子端 泡沫的呈现往往取决于"容器大小"，有一个很有意思的比喻是"往杯子里倒酒"与"往杠里倒酒"泡沫的情 况是不一样的，在中美流动性宽松+A股估值牛市+政策大力支持发展科技（产业高景气）的基础上（往 缸里到酒），认为言AI泡沫仍尚早，只是仓位和累计涨幅的压力随时可能需要一定的消化。强者恒强 的核心因素仍在于ΔG，如果ΔG开始出现明显的疲软则可能处于平顶消化估值+成长回归价值的过程。 当前并未见到ΔG的显著拐点，那么AI硬件在现阶段更有可能跟随估值牛的大环境延续。 美国2025年12月失业率超预期回落，市场预计首次降息将推迟至6月。在年度展望中对美联储降息次数 预期比市场更为谨慎，认为全年1-2次，当前仍维持此判断。从经济基本面看，今年留给美联储降息的 窗口不多，宽财政对经济的脉冲效应还在路上。一季度美联储不降息的话，港股反弹节奏就更要看分子 端情况。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2025 will not be a victorious year for U.S. stocks, but rather a year of currency credit changes and capital rotation, with the "cost-performance" of U.S. stock assets dropping to a low point [1] - Dalio warns of the "nominal return" trap, indicating that almost all fiat currencies are depreciating against gold, with the U.S. dollar losing 39% of its value against gold. This suggests that apparent asset returns may be misleading when considering the real purchasing power of currency [2] - The shift in capital and wealth is moving from the U.S. to other regions, which may drive further rebalancing and diversification in asset allocation [3] Group 2 - Dalio highlights that the performance of U.S. stocks in 2025 will be driven by two main forces: earnings growth and P/E expansion, with an estimated total return of approximately 18% for the S&P 500, driven by a 12% earnings growth and a 5% increase in P/E [4] - The earnings growth is primarily attributed to the "seven giants" in the S&P 500, which account for one-third of the index's market value and are expected to see a 22% growth in earnings [4] - Dalio emphasizes the need to closely monitor whether the upward trend in profit margins can continue and how much of this can be realized as actual profits, as current market pricing assumes this trend will persist [5] Group 3 - Long-term expected returns for stocks are estimated to be around 4.7%, with current bond returns at approximately 4.9%, indicating a very thin equity risk premium [6] - The narrowing of credit spreads to very low levels may benefit lower-rated credit assets and stocks in the short term, but limits the potential for further narrowing, making it easier for spreads to expand, which would negatively impact these assets [6] - Dalio notes that the current market cannot be considered cheap, and he views the AI boom as being in the early stages of a bubble, which has significantly impacted nearly all assets and narratives [7]

来源：第一财经 美欧日经济在2025年明显呈K形发展，强者愈强，弱者落伍。这种经济业态会在2026年继续。特朗普推 出的关税战，看来没有对美国经济，甚至贸易对手经济构成沉重打击，初始物价效应过后，也许没有人 再提了。美国支持以色列袭击加沙、伊朗，乃至亲自下场绑架委内瑞拉总统，这些是对联合国宪章的漠 视，并推翻了二战后的国际秩序，但在资本市场也没有卷起大的风浪。 然而，平推之中酝酿着变局。经济K形发展必然招致选民反弹，2026年最大变数就是美国中期选举。以 目前的民意，共和党可能会失去众议院多数席位，一旦成真将会冲击特朗普政府的执政能力。日本首相 高市早苗可能不久后会宣布提前大选，她的个人魅力将和选民对物价的不满直接碰撞。英国工党领袖之 争、德国地方选举，乃至法国2027年初的总统大选，均可能成为选民说NO的契机。 许多变化对经济的真实冲击需要更长时间酝酿才能看到。英国政客曾把脱欧吹得很厉害，但十年后选民 才发现，本国经济比脱欧前少了6%~8%，而且海外投资裹足不前，高收入人群逃离，财政状况每况愈 下。美国调高关税，打劫了世界，看上去对本国物价冲击有限，但其实主要涨价压力暂时被批发商、零 售商吞下，需要时间才能 ...

"投资者对AI过度兴奋"，就连作为当事人的OpenAI的CEO萨姆·奥尔特曼也承认这一点。 然而，不管什么样的大人物做出提醒，买盘的势头依旧没有停止。 在1月7日的交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数虽然上涨乏力，但首次突破5万点大关仍在射程内。标普500指 数接近7000点。华尔街也鼓励个人投资者进行积极乐观地投资。 "AI热潮处于泡沫的初期阶段，显然已经对所有领域都产生了巨大影响"，美国著名投资家达利欧回顾 2025年时这样指出。然而，不管什么样的大人物对AI泡沫危险性敲响警钟，买盘的势头依旧没有停 止。市场似乎对过去几次泡沫很健忘…… 市场似乎很健忘。 "人工智能（AI）热潮处于泡沫的初期阶段，显然已经对所有领域都产生了巨大影响"。 1月5日，美国著名投资家瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）在X上发布的回顾2025年的长文中这样指出。 各界大人物敲响警钟 不仅仅是他。华尔街的意见领袖、摩根大通的首席执行官(CEO)杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）也持同样意 见。另外，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）、欧洲中央银行（ECB）和英国英格兰银行（央行）也对AI 泡沫的危险性敲响了警钟。 既然如此多专家都这么说，我们或许 ...

股市快乐地享受流动性盛宴，全球股市几乎一致走好。 美国总统特朗普近日干净利索地干了两件令人瞠目的事情，结果市场反应不大。第一件事是以极短时间 和最小伤亡绑架了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，重写了主权国家之间的交往模式，但是股价（委内瑞拉股市除 外）和油价都反应不大。第二件事是提前半天在自己社交媒体透露了美国2025年12月非农就业数据的部 分内容，这是史无前例的数据泄密，美债市场反应也有限。 话题切换到2026年全球经济形势。今年看来是去年的重复。美国经济依然强劲，股市强劲、高端消费强 劲，低端消费转弱，但大而美法案所产生的退税杀到，美国经济增长不会太差，起码上半年表现应该可 以。欧洲内需严重不足，投资低迷，但是旅游业一枝独秀。日本出口很好，但是消费者感受到的却是生 活成本的高涨。 美欧日经济在2025年明显呈K形发展，强者愈强，弱者落伍。这种经济业态会在2026年继续。特朗普推 出的关税战，看来没有对美国经济，甚至贸易对手经济构成沉重打击，初始物价效应过后，也许没有人 再提了。美国支持以色列袭击加沙、伊朗，乃至亲自下场绑架委内瑞拉总统，这些是对联合国宪章的漠 视，并推翻了二战后的国际秩序，但在资本市场也没有卷起大的风 ...

Group 1 - The AI industry is facing a significant contradiction with a massive gap between capital expenditure and actual revenue, despite advancements in technology like Claude Code and Gemini [2][9] - Global AI computing power has reached 15 million H100 GPU equivalents, but there is a severe energy crisis behind this growth, with chip operation consuming 10GW of power, equivalent to the average electricity usage of two New York City [4][9] - Michael Burry has publicly shorted Oracle, criticizing its aggressive expansion into AI, which has led to a staggering debt of approximately $95 billion, and he is skeptical about the sustainability of such strategies [7][29] Group 2 - Burry expresses concerns that the current economic boom differs from past cycles due to the short duration of capital expenditures, with many investments depreciating within two to three years [10][12] - The private credit market plays a significant role in financing this boom, with mismatched durations leading to potential asset stagnation [13][14] - Burry believes that if no party in the AI supply chain can achieve substantial profits, the value will ultimately flow to customers, similar to the escalator wars of the past [21][22] Group 3 - Burry argues that Nvidia's competitive advantage is not sustainable, suggesting that most AI applications will face similar challenges as past industries that invested heavily without clear returns [18][21] - He also critiques Palantir's CEO for lacking confidence, indicating that the company is likely to decline [20] - The current AI landscape is characterized by a rapid increase in computing power, doubling approximately every seven months, which raises questions about sustainability and profitability [42][44] Group 4 - The AI chip market is dominated by Nvidia, but competitors like Google and Amazon are attempting to carve out market share with their own chips [51] - There is a critical bottleneck in the availability of infrastructure to support the growing demand for AI computing power, leading to potential idle assets [53][56] - The ongoing debate in Silicon Valley reflects a tension between the promise of AI and the reality of financial and physical constraints, with companies like Oracle experiencing significant stock volatility due to these pressures [28][57]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on overseas equity (Hong Kong and US stocks) by Guotai Junan Futures, dated January 11, 2026 [1][2] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - For US stocks, maintain an optimistic outlook, continue with the technology + cyclical allocation strategy, and expect a more balanced market style in 2026 with a "shrinking circle" structure in the technology sector [3] - For Chinese stocks, in the short term, A-shares have better profit - making effects than Hong Kong stocks, and attention should be paid to the subsequent catch - up opportunities in Hong Kong stocks. In the medium term, Hong Kong stocks maintain a barbell strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Sections US Stocks - **Market Performance and Outlook**: This week, cyclical sectors led the rise in US stocks, and the technology sector continued its "shrinking circle" structure. Next week, the US stock market will face earnings season and inflation data. The outlook remains optimistic, and the technology + cyclical allocation strategy continues [3] - **2026 Allocation Ideas**: The market style will be more balanced, and the K - shaped divergence between technology and non - technology, large - cap and small - cap stocks is expected to converge. Focus on AI technology, healthcare, utilities, finance, materials, and consumer sectors. Prioritize upstream infrastructure in AI technology over downstream software, and pay attention to theme investment opportunities in physical AI [3] - **Valuation**: US stock valuations are still relatively high overall [14] - **AI Bubble**: It is a local rather than a systematic bubble. The market is punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. Currently, it may be close to the 1997 position from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC. Monitor the "ROIC - WACC" convergence trend and the divergence between "financing growth" and "profit growth" [20][22] Chinese Stocks - **Market Performance and Outlook**: This week, A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks. A - shares' performance was strong in some sectors with high performance certainty and theme - concept sectors. Southbound funds' entry momentum increased, and the pattern may be A - shares leading and Hong Kong stocks catching up. February is the month with the highest winning rate for A - shares historically [4][6][7] - **Short - term Allocation**: Defensively allocate sectors with high performance certainty (AI hardware, new energy leaders, and non - ferrous metals), and offensively allocate valuation - driven sectors (Hang Seng Technology, Hong Kong innovative drugs, commercial aerospace, and robotics) [7] - **Medium - term Allocation for Hong Kong Stocks**: Adopt a barbell strategy, focusing on technology assets with clear industrial trends supported by policies, some new energy sectors with supply - side clearance and demand - side improvement, and non - ferrous sectors benefiting from supply shortages, strong structural demand, and interest rate cuts [7] Odds Analysis - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is 11.8 times, approaching the mean + 1STD since 2015. The forward PE of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 21.4 times, approaching the mean of the past 5 years. The Hang Seng Index ERP is 4.9%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index ERP is 1.1% [9][10]

进入2026年，全球宏观市场正在经历一场深刻的范式转变。资深分析师David Woo认为，面对中期选举 的巨大压力，特朗普政府正展现出不惜一切代价扭转局面的决心，这将重塑从能源到黄金的全球资产定 价逻辑。 David Woo表示，为弥补严重的民调劣势并避免在国会失去多数席位，特朗普政府的政策重心已全面转 向赢得"可负担性"辩论。这意味着2026年的终极交易主题将从单纯的再通胀转向激进的通缩手段——尤 其是通过强力掌控能源资源来大幅压低油价，目标是在大选前将汽油价格降至关键心理防线。这一战略 不仅意在平抑通胀，更意在通过改善中产阶级生活成本来稳固选票。 而特朗普此前对委内瑞拉的动作标志着战后建立的基于规则的国际秩序实质性终结。这一举措并非出于 意识形态考量，而是为了直接掌控能源资源，以期通过大幅增加供应来赢得国内的"可负担性论证"。特 朗普的目标是在秋季前将汽油价格压低至每加仑2.25美元，这将对原油市场造成剧烈冲击，预计油价将 下探至40至50美元区间。 Woo警告，随着美国放弃作为国际体系的传统担保人角色，全球地缘不安全感将急剧上升，这为黄金提 供了强劲支撑，并利好国防工业。相反，新兴市场股票将面临估值重估 ...

进入2026年，全球宏观市场正在经历一场深刻的范式转变。资深分析师David Woo认为，面对中期选举 的巨大压力，特朗普政府正展现出不惜一切代价扭转局面的决心，这将重塑从能源到黄金的全球资产定 价逻辑。 David Woo表示，为弥补严重的民调劣势并避免在国会失去多数席位，特朗普政府的政策重心已全面转 向赢得"可负担性"辩论。这意味着2026年的终极交易主题将从单纯的再通胀转向激进的通缩手段——尤 其是通过强力掌控能源资源来大幅压低油价，目标是在大选前将汽油价格降至关键心理防线。这一战略 不仅意在平抑通胀，更意在通过改善中产阶级生活成本来稳固选票。 而特朗普此前对委内瑞拉的动作标志着战后建立的基于规则的国际秩序实质性终结。这一举措并非出于 意识形态考量，而是为了直接掌控能源资源，以期通过大幅增加供应来赢得国内的"可负担性论证"。特 朗普的目标是在秋季前将汽油价格压低至每加仑2.25美元，这将对原油市场造成剧烈冲击，预计油价将 下探至40至50美元区间。 Woo警告，随着美国放弃作为国际体系的传统担保人角色，全球地缘不安全感将急剧上升，这为黄金提 供了强劲支撑，并利好国防工业。相反，新兴市场股票将面临估值重估 ...