Group 1: CPI Data Overview - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has decreased due to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival and a significant drop in energy prices, which fell by 5.0% [2][3] - The core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% is the highest in the past six months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [4] Group 2: PPI Data Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [7] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the decline has narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [9] - Key industries such as non-ferrous metal mining and smelting saw significant price increases, with non-ferrous metal mining prices up by 22.7% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Price Influences and Trends - The increase in PPI is attributed to the ongoing construction of a unified national market, rising demand, and external factors affecting prices in the non-ferrous metal and petroleum sectors [7][8] - The prices of essential consumer goods remained stable before the Spring Festival, with food prices holding steady and certain categories like fresh vegetables and grains experiencing slight declines [2][4] - The adjustment of the CPI basket to reflect changes in consumer behavior, such as the increased purchase of new energy vehicles, is aimed at improving the accuracy of price indices [5][6]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a seven-day rise, but trading volume continued to shrink, leading to a significant "seesaw" effect in capital allocation and accelerated sector rotation [1] - Ahead of the Spring Festival holiday, funds are divided into two camps: one showing cautious sentiment favoring dividend and free cash flow ETFs, while the other is positioning for a rebound after the holiday [1] - Major ETFs that received significant net subscriptions from external funds include the ChiNext ETF and the CSI 1000 ETF, with industry-specific ETFs like satellite, robotics, AI, semiconductor equipment, and chemical ETFs also seeing strong inflows [1] Group 2 - According to Wang Bo from Huaxia Fund, the reduction in trading volume before the holiday is normal, and there is a general optimistic expectation for the February market, although a short-term recovery in market sentiment will take time [2] - The investment strategy suggested includes maintaining a balanced allocation across technology, cyclical, and consumer sectors through broad-based ETFs like the Hu-Shen 300 ETF [2] - The recent increase in January PPI by 0.4% month-on-month has catalyzed price increases in the chemical sector, while positive developments in robotics and AI models are also emerging [1][2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Range - bound trading [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range trading [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range trading affected by events [2][15] - Logs: Range - bound trading [2][19] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The closing price of I2605 was 762.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%); the position decreased by 6,983 hands to 506,957 hands [4] - **Spot Price**: Imported and domestic ore prices remained stable [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed slightly [4] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.07%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). The position of RB2605 decreased by 1,877 hands, and that of HC2605 increased by 9,529 hands [6] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in major cities remained unchanged [6] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [6] - **News**: On February 5th, steel production, inventory and apparent demand data changed; in late January, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed; BHP's iron ore production hit a record high; China's steel import data changed; some steel products were subject to export license management [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 decreased, while those of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 increased [11] - **News**: A new capacity of a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia was ignited; Jupiter would not provide manganese ore supply and quotes to China in March; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were reported; a steel mill's silicon - iron procurement price was determined; electricity prices in some southern regions increased, and southern silicon - manganese production was expected to decrease [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,123.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.4%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.1%). The position of JM2605 decreased by 14,309 hands, and that of J2605 increased by 820 hands [15] - **Spot Price**: Most spot prices remained stable, with a 2 - yuan increase in Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [15] - **News**: On February 11th, CCI metallurgical coal index data was reported; the coking coal online auction had a 43% non - successful bid rate, with most transaction prices falling [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - **Price, Volume and Position**: The closing prices, trading volumes and positions of different log contracts changed, with some showing declines. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [19] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a weak expectation in the steel market, with low volatility in futures steel prices [14][19] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [4][15] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up 61.4% and exports up 40.5% [4][15] Group 2 - As of February 11, 2026, only two steel mills have introduced winter storage discount policies, targeting internal agreement clients and nearby strategic customers [4][15] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 79.53%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points week-on-week [4][15] - The average cost for 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton from the previous day, with an average loss of 52 yuan/ton [5][16] Group 3 - Last week, rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons [6][17] - Hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons [7][18] - The five major steel products' total supply was 8.199 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,700 tons, while total inventory rose by 592,400 tons [5][16] Group 4 - The strategy for rebar futures is bearish in the short term, with support observed around 3,050 [8][19] - The strategy for hot-rolled futures is also bearish in the short term, with support around 3,200 [8][19] - The alloy prices are under pressure, with silicon iron supply remaining low and manganese prices at a high level [9][20]

中金研究 1 月 CPI 同比从 0.8% 回落至 0.2% ，主要受春节错位影响，食品和服务拖累较大。金价上涨和换新需求释放难抵服务拖累，核心 CPI 同比回落至 0.8% 。 PPI 环比涨幅走扩至 0.4% 、同比跌幅收窄至 -1.4% ，主要受国际有色涨价、化工光伏反内卷、 AI 需求推动，但中下游顺价压力仍大。基期轮换对通胀读数影 响不大，但分类和调查的调整关注新消费、新模式和新方法，权数结构变化反映消费结构从商品向服务、从生存型向发展享受型的变迁 [1] 。向前看， 2 月 CPI 同比有望回弹，但后续物价改善幅度还看内需修复速度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 春节错月拖累同比。 1月CPI同比由上月0.8%回落至0.2%，主要受春节错位影响。春节所在月份往往CPI环比较高，今年春节在2月，去年春节在1月，导致 1月食品和服务等价格在高基数、低新增下，同比由前月的1.1%和0.6%回落至-0.7%和0.1%[2]，分别拖累CPI同比0.3和0.2ppt。 1月CPI环比0.2%，弱于十年同期可比均值的0.6%[3]，但考虑到疫情后服务样本更具代表性的调整，这个环比与疫后春节相似的2024年1月相当（0 ...

Group 1 - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, primarily influenced by the Spring Festival's timing, leading to a high comparison base from the previous year [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, while it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][3] - Energy prices fell by 5.0% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the CPI decline, with gasoline prices down 11.4% [1] Group 2 - Core CPI showed a mild increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, the highest in six months, indicating a continuous recovery in consumer demand [1] - Prices for air tickets and travel agency services rose by 5.7% and 2.0% respectively, while prices for household services, hairdressing, and entertainment tickets increased between 0.4% and 2.8% [2] - Excluding energy, industrial consumer goods prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with significant increases in gold jewelry prices (77.4%) and household goods [2] Group 3 - The PPI's month-on-month increase of 0.4% reflects positive changes driven by the ongoing construction of a unified national market and increased demand in certain industries [3] - Prices in the raw materials and processing industries rose by 0.7% and 0.5% month-on-month, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively [3] - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to continue influencing the prices of basic raw materials and industrial products in the future [3]

（来源：中华工商时报） 转自：中华工商时报 在全国统一大市场建设持续推进、部分行业需求增加等因素带动下，1月份，PPI继续呈现积极变化。 "1月份，PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。全国统一大市场建设持续 推进带动部分行业价格上涨，水泥制造、锂离子电池制造价格环比均连续4个月上涨。"董莉娟说。 董莉娟分析，部分行业需求增加，进一步带动相关行业价格上涨。例如，人工智能等数字化技术加快发 展、算力需求增长带动计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格环比上涨0.5%；春节前礼品和食品等备 货需求增加带动工艺美术及礼仪用品制造、农副食品加工业价格分别上涨4.1%和0.3%。 国家统计局2月11日发布数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同 比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百 分点；环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。 "1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，CPI保持上涨，但同比涨幅有所回落。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师 董莉娟分析，CPI涨幅回落，一是受春节错月影响，上年1月份 ...

除了春节错月因素，能源价格同比降幅扩大也是CPI同比涨幅回落的原因之一。1月能源价格同比下降 5.0%，对CPI同比的下拉影响比2025年12月增加约0.06个百分点。其中，汽油价格同比下降11.4%，降幅 比2025年12月扩大3.0个百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI温和上涨，体现出居民消费需求持续恢复。数据显示，1月核心CPI同比 上涨0.8%，环比上涨0.3%，环比涨幅为近6个月最高。 "促消费政策推动耐用消费品价格走高，是近期核心CPI涨幅较高的主要支撑。"东方金诚首席宏观分析 师王青对上海证券报记者表示。数据显示，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨2.6%，涨幅比2025年 12月扩大0.1个百分点。 1月，PPI环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比2025年12月扩大0.2个百分点，实现了连续4个月上涨。PPI同比下降 1.4%，降幅比2025年12月收窄0.5个百分点，实现连续2个月同比降幅收窄。 究其原因，民生银行首席经济学家温彬对上海证券报记者表示，主要是重点行业产能治理成效持续显 现、部分行业供需结构有所改善、新质生产力培育壮大带动相关行业价格上涨等。 物价运行呈低位温和回升态势。国家统计局2月 ...

问：为什么要开展价格指数基期轮换？ 答：基期轮换是价格指数编制的重要基础性工作，也是国际惯例和通行做法，旨在适应生产、流通、消 费领域商品和服务交易结构的新变化。基期是指价格指数对比基准时期，这一时期的指数为100。按照 统计制度安排，目前我国CPI和PPI每五年进行一次基期轮换，2026年开始编制和发布以2025年为基期的 价格指数。下面以CPI基期轮换为例详细说明。 CPI是综合反映一定时期内居民消费的商品和服务价格水平变动情况的相对数。由于居民消费的类别和 品种成千上万，为观察其总体价格变动情况，通常选取一定时期内居民经常消费、对居民生活影响较 大、有代表性的一组商品和服务作为"固定篮子"，用它们的价格变化来代表全社会所有商品和服务的价 格变化。随着经济社会发展，居民消费结构也在发生变化，需要及时调整CPI调查的"固定篮子"。例 如，随着我国居民越来越多地购买新能源小汽车，车用电力作为交通工具用能源需及时纳入CPI调查范 围。CPI基期轮换就是对"固定篮子"和价格对比基期进行调整，以适应居民消费结构的最新变化，进一 步提高价格指数的代表性，更加真实准确反映消费市场价格变动。 问：基期轮换对CPI和PPI ...

Core Viewpoints - January inflation shows divergence, influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, external factors driving up prices, and weak demand [2][8] - The decline in PPI has narrowed significantly, primarily due to the increased impact of copper prices and some influence from the base period rotation [2][8] - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [2][8] PPI Analysis - The increase in copper prices has contributed significantly to PPI, with copper prices rising by 9.3% month-on-month, leading to a 0.5% increase in PPI [2][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metal mining and processing rose by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively, contributing positively to PPI [2][8] - In contrast, the prices of crude oil and coal have weakened, dragging PPI down by -0.08% and -0.15% respectively [12][71] CPI Analysis - The CPI fell significantly in January, primarily due to the Spring Festival misalignment, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 0.2% [3][17] - The month-on-month CPI increase was only 0.2%, which is notably lower than the previous year's performance before the Spring Festival [3][17] - Food CPI saw a substantial decline, dropping by 1.8 percentage points to -0.7%, influenced by high pig inventory levels keeping pork prices low [3][17] Core CPI and Service CPI - Excluding gold price impacts, the core CPI also showed weakness, falling by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6% [24][72] - The service CPI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%, with weak rental demand contributing to a decline in housing CPI [4][28] - The core service CPI remained weak, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, lower than the previous year's performance [4][28] Future Outlook - The performance of downstream prices is crucial compared to upstream price increases, with ongoing monitoring of the effects of anti-involution policies [39][73] - Despite potential continued increases in commodity prices, the transmission of upstream price increases to downstream remains limited, leading to a weak recovery in PPI [39][73] - For CPI, the low base in February, combined with high gold prices and improved service consumption, may lead to a significant rebound, potentially showing a "V-shaped" trend early in the year [39][73]