Group 1: Economic Growth Production - Power plant daily consumption is higher than the same period last year. On January 13, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 826,000 tons, a 2.7% decrease from January 6. On January 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.278 million tons, a 9.6% increase from December 30 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has generally recovered moderately. On January 9, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 2; the capacity utilization rate was 86.1%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from January 2. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills decreased by 3.7 percentage points [5][16]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On January 8, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 58.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January 1; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 65.9%, a 2.4 - percentage - point decrease from January 1 [5][18]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline. On January 8, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 90.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 1, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 57.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 8 [5][18]. Demand - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 13, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 152,000 square meters, a 44.9% decrease from the same period in December, a 41.8% decrease from January of last year, and a 40.8% decrease from January 2024 [5][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][26]. - Steel prices are oscillating strongly. On January 13, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by +0.6%, +1.3%, - 0.3%, and +0.1% respectively compared to January 6 [5][33]. - Cement prices have hit a new low. On January 13, the national cement price index decreased by 1.1% compared to January 6. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, performing slightly better than the national average [5][34]. - The rebound strength of glass prices has increased. On January 13, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,119 yuan/ton, an 0.8% increase from January 6 [5][39]. - The container shipping freight rate index has shown a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. On January 9, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][43]. Group 2: Inflation CPI - The rebound strength of pork prices is weakening. On January 13, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.3% increase from January 6. Since January, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 2.0% month - on - month [5][47]. - The agricultural product price index has declined moderately. On January 13, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.9% compared to January 6. Since January, the index has increased by 4.0% year - on - year but decreased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][52]. PPI - Oil prices have reached the highest level since October. On January 13, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 61.2 dollars/barrel respectively, an 8.4% and 7.0% increase from January 6 [5][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise. On January 13, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.1% and 2.3% respectively compared to January 6. Since January, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum have increased by 10.4% and 7.0% month - on - month respectively [5][59]. - The domestic commodity index has changed from a decline to an increase month - on - month. On January 13, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 1.2% compared to January 6, while the CRB index decreased by 1.5% [5][59].

美国11月PPI录得3%，为7月以来新高，市场预期为2.7%。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight rise in consumer prices but remaining in a low range[7] - The low base effect is the main factor driving the CPI increase, with household appliance prices rising significantly, although overall consumer demand remains weak[9] - Food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable prices seeing the highest increase at 18.2%[13] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in December, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[29] - Raw material prices increased, contributing to a reduction in the rate of decline for the PPI, while the demand for industrial products remains insufficient[29] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector rose significantly, with mining prices increasing by 24.0% and smelting prices by 10.8% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards higher technology industries[30] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rise moderately in 2026 due to the low base effect and policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, despite ongoing economic pressures[38] - The PPI may also see an upward trend in 2026, driven by increased competition for resources and policy adjustments, although internal economic pressures persist[38]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, with a shift in investor preference towards equities anticipated for 2026 due to declining risk premiums and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has seen a strong performance over the past four years, primarily due to a lack of attractive returns in the equity market, leading investors to favor lower-risk bond assets [2]. - A significant drop in risk premiums indicates a rising risk appetite among investors, which is likely to result in a decline in bond prices and an increase in stock market performance [2]. - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone for macroeconomic policies, emphasizing proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to enhance investor sentiment towards economic recovery [2]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - Investors should adjust their strategies in light of potential economic recovery, focusing on early indicators of corporate profitability such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3]. - Recommendations for bond investors include reducing duration by holding shorter-duration bonds and increasing exposure to equity-linked products like convertible bond funds and secondary bond funds to enhance returns [3]. - In the current interest rate environment, the choice between pure bond funds, convertible bond funds, and ETFs tracking government and technology innovation bonds should be based on the investor's outlook on interest rates and economic conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Product Insights - Pure bond funds are focused solely on bond assets, requiring careful attention to the fund manager's ability to adjust the portfolio based on credit and interest rate research [4]. - Government bond ETFs track government bond indices and are sensitive to interest rate changes, while technology innovation bonds carry additional credit risks, potentially offering higher returns [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that expert predictions are based on probabilities rather than certainties, and the market often misinterprets these insights as definitive forecasts [1][4] - The analysis of the potential for a market peak in the second half of the year is linked to four key factors: Federal Reserve monetary policy, domestic industrial product prices (PPI), RMB exchange rate, and capital flows [1][6] - The current market environment presents both opportunities and risks, with external favorable conditions and internal recovery providing a window for investment, while uncertainties and inflation pressures pose potential threats [3][7] Group 2 - Historical context shows that market cycles are influenced by various factors, and the prediction of a peak in the second half of the year is based on the convergence of macroeconomic indicators [6][9] - The importance of a stable policy environment is highlighted, as it is crucial for market predictability and coherent reform paths, which can support investor confidence [7][9] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamentals and valuations rather than being swayed by short-term market trends, emphasizing the need for disciplined investment strategies [3][11]

Core Viewpoint - In recent years, Chinese export enterprises have shown a clear tendency to "hold foreign exchange without settling." Starting from early 2025, as the RMB enters an appreciation cycle and Chinese assets are revalued, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange is expected to rebound. The recent RMB exchange rate against the USD has broken through 7.0, and mainstream expectations suggest that the RMB will continue to appreciate, further stimulating enterprises' settlement sentiment and positively impacting liquidity and the market [2][3][12]. Group 1: Settlement Willingness and Scale - The "pending settlement" scale for enterprises is approximately $930 billion, with an expected increase in settlement willingness by 2025. From early 2022 to November 2025, export enterprises accumulated $930 billion in foreign exchange that has not been settled [3][7]. - The settlement rate, which measures the proportion of foreign exchange that enterprises actively convert to RMB, is a good indicator of their willingness to settle. A higher settlement rate indicates stronger willingness [8][10]. - Since early 2025, the settlement rate has improved significantly, rising from a low of 54.4% in February 2025 to a high of 71.2% in September 2025, indicating a shift from "holding foreign exchange" to "steady settlement" [10][11]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Settlement Willingness - Two main factors influence enterprises' willingness to settle: expectations regarding the RMB exchange rate and the comparative returns of holding different currencies. When enterprises expect the RMB to appreciate, they are more inclined to settle early to avoid exchange losses [11][13]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased due to favorable developments in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and effective responses to trade tensions, which have boosted risk appetite and improved the performance of Chinese financial assets [13][14]. Group 3: Impact on Liquidity and Market - The settlement of foreign exchange essentially converts foreign assets into RMB deposits, impacting the balance sheets of the central bank, commercial banks, and enterprises. However, the effect on the base currency supply is minimal if commercial banks do not sell the foreign exchange to the central bank [15][20]. - If 20% of the pending settlement is realized by the end of 2026, it could lead to an increase in M1 by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB, contributing about 1.2 percentage points to M1 growth [24][27]. - The increase in M1 is expected to have limited impact on PPI due to insufficient effective demand, and some high-risk enterprises may channel funds into the stock market, providing incremental capital to A-shares [27][28][31].

Group 1: REITs Market Analysis - The recent performance of newly listed REITs has been disappointing, with significant price drops on their debut days, such as the 华夏安博仓储 REIT [2][6] - Factors contributing to this trend include a strong A-share market in the second half of 2025, leading funds to shift from debt-oriented REITs to equity assets, and a rise in interest rates diminishing the relative value of REITs [2][6][7] - The relaxation of the REITs inquiry limit to 25% in June 2025 has increased market pricing dynamics, resulting in narrower valuation spreads between primary and secondary markets, thus compressing profit margins for new REITs [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see a peak in the unlocking of strategic investment shares in REITs, which may further pressure the secondary market performance of newly issued REITs [7][9] - C-REITs may present some low-position investment value after continuous adjustments, with defensive sectors like consumption infrastructure and municipal environmental REITs showing resilience due to stable cash flows and policy support [11] Group 2: Fixed Income and Wealth Management - As of December 2025, the total wealth management scale reached 33.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.7 trillion yuan from the previous month, but an increase of 3.3 trillion yuan year-on-year [12][13] - The average annualized yield for newly issued fixed-income wealth management products slightly rebounded in December 2025, with the upper limit at 2.75% and the lower limit at 2.25% [13] - The bond market is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2026, with a focus on long-term bonds potentially rebounding from oversold conditions [19] Group 3: CPI and Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2023, driven significantly by food prices [16][17] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of -1.9%, with positive month-on-month growth for three consecutive months, indicating price support from upstream industries [16][17] Group 4: Company Overview - Vision Smart - Vision Smart, a leader in the building intelligence sector, has maintained a growth rate of 20% to 30% in its KNX smart control business since 2022, significantly boosting revenue [22][23] - The global market for KNX products is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.3% from 2025 to 2031, with the Chinese smart home market expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [23][24] - The company has established a strong presence in over 70 countries and regions, with plans to enhance production capacity through a new industrial park project [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in December 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a narrowing decrease compared to the previous month, while a month-on-month increase of 0.2% was observed, indicating a mixed trend in industrial prices driven by supply-demand dynamics and external factors [1]. Group 1: PPI Trends - The year-on-year PPI decline of 1.9% reflects a narrowing of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The month-on-month PPI increased by 0.2%, which is an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to the prior month [1]. Group 2: Price Influences - Improvement in supply-demand structure led to price increases in certain sectors, such as a 1.0% rise in lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices for three consecutive months [1]. - Seasonal demand increases contributed to price rises in gas production and supply (1.2%) and electricity and heat production and supply (1.0%) [1]. - Input factors caused a divergence in prices for non-ferrous metals and oil-related industries, with international crude oil prices leading to declines of 2.3% in domestic oil extraction and 0.9% in refined oil product manufacturing [1]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - Continuous effectiveness of macro policies has resulted in positive price changes in certain industries, with the construction of a unified national market contributing to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines [1]. - The growth of new productive forces has led to price increases in related sectors, including a 9.0% rise in biomass liquid fuel prices, 5.5% in graphite and carbon product manufacturing, 2.4% in integrated circuit finished products, and 0.9% in waste resource recycling [1]. - The effective release of consumer potential has also driven year-on-year price increases in relevant industries [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall repair trend of December's CPI and PPI readings continued, but the structural differentiation of price indicators was not significantly improved. The core CPI's year - on - year repair momentum may have slowed, and the PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 [6][14][18]. - The bond market was weak this week. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year suppressed the bond market. Factors such as the correction of unreasonable interest - rate cut expectations and the lower - than - expected central bank bond - buying scale led to a larger adjustment in the short - and medium - term bonds. However, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened marginally towards the weekend [6]. - The factors restricting the bond market's strength still exist, so a relatively cautious judgment is held for the Q1 trend. But there may be short - term trading opportunities in bond futures, and it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week's CPI data met expectations, with food and tobacco prices and precious metal jewelry prices being the main drivers of CPI repair. The core CPI's year - on - year repair momentum may have slowed, and the household appliance prices in the household goods and services sub - item increased strongly [14]. - The PPI data slightly exceeded expectations. The production data prices in the upstream were the main source of PPI repair, while the downstream consumer goods prices had weak repair momentum. The domestic PPI year - on - year is expected to turn positive in Q2 [18][16]. - The strong equity market at the beginning of the year suppressed the bond market, but the impact weakened marginally towards the weekend [24]. - The capital price did not fall further, and the central bank's bond - buying was lower than expected, leading to a relatively large adjustment in the short - and medium - term bonds [26]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Try to go long at low prices in the short term [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Contract Valuation - The IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were about 1.3126%, 1.4026%, 1.2506%, and 0.7725% respectively. The futures bond valuation was slightly underestimated compared to the spot bonds [36]. 3.2.2 Contract Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented in the data [41]. 3.2.3 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume and open interest data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided [44]. 3.2.4 Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - The curves of spot bond yields, term spreads, spreads between national bonds and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y national bonds and state - owned development bonds are presented [47]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and Exchange Rates - Data on the US 10 - year Treasury yield, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury spread, US dollar index, and US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate are provided [50].

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a decline of 2.6% for the entire year of 2025 [2] - Analysts predict a moderate recovery in overall prices in 2026, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and the development of new economic drivers [2] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year increase in CPI in December 2025 was the highest since August 2023, driven primarily by rising vegetable and fruit prices due to adverse weather conditions, as well as the effects of year-end consumption promotion policies [2][3] - Specific price increases included fresh vegetables and fruits, which rose by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] - The prices of household appliances and vehicles also saw a month-on-month increase, exceeding market expectations [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points in December 2025, influenced by rising raw material prices and the effects of policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [4] - The PPI experienced a continuous month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [4] - For 2025, the PPI's year-on-year decline was 2.6%, which is a larger drop compared to the previous year, attributed to insufficient external demand and ongoing economic structural adjustments [4] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the CPI will see a moderate increase in 2026, potentially around 1.2%, as the effects of growth-stimulating and consumption-promoting policies take hold [7] - The PPI is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2026, with a projected year-on-year decline narrowing to around 0.5%, although a return to positive growth may take longer [4][5] - Measures to ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods are being implemented, with local governments actively working to maintain market stability [6]