10月16日，国家统计局四川调查总队发布数据显示，9月，四川居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下 降0.9%，降幅与上月持平；环比由上月的下降转为持平。1—9月平均，CPI比去年下降0.4%。 虽然9月CPI同比下降，但扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，处于今年2月以来的阶段 高点。 受季节性因素影响，9月鲜菜、鲜果、鸡蛋等价格环比分别上涨7.4%、1.2%和3.5%。猪肉价格继续 下跌，环比微降0.3%，同比下降20.6%。省畜牧业协会猪业分会会长李晓勇表示，尽管今年7月以来行 业主管部门密集释放猪业"反内卷"信号，但去产能至少有10个月的传导周期，再加上尚未进入年底的季 节性消费旺季，行业将继续处于"磨底阶段"。 ●扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6% ●鲜菜、鲜果、鸡蛋等价格环比分别上涨7.4%、1.2%和3.5% ●飞机票、宾馆住宿、旅行社收费环比分别下降15.8%、5.5%、9.1% 服务价格方面，9月旅游相关服务价格处于暑期后、国庆前的价格低点，飞机票、宾馆住宿、旅行 社收费环比分别下降15.8%、5.5%、9.1%。 9月，工业生产者出厂价格指数同比降幅明显收窄，同比下降2. ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking rose by 1.55% and 0.57% respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures dropping below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices fell by 12.41% [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery rates also declining [2] Group 3: Livestock Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow market sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4][5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, although the rate of decline narrowed compared to previous months [7][8] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the first increase in 19 months, driven by improved performance in industrial consumer goods [8] - Exports in September grew by 8.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative export growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [11][12]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a style switch, with the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 indices declining by 0.24%, 2.22%, and 5.17% respectively this week[3] - The banking and coal sectors led the gains, while the TMT sectors, including electronics and media, saw the largest declines[5] Precious Metals - Since September, precious metal prices have surged, with the London spot gold price reaching a new high of $4,378 on October 17, and silver nearing $53[5] - Gold and silver prices increased by 27.3% and 30.5% respectively since the end of August, although they saw a slight decline of 1.3% and 3.9% on the last trading day[5] Economic Indicators - The core CPI in September rose by 1% year-on-year, with core goods CPI expected to reach 1.5%, the highest since 2021[5] - M1 growth rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 7.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 trillion yuan, surpassing the five-year average by nearly 1 trillion yuan[5] Trade and Export - September exports saw a significant increase due to a low base, with Africa and ASEAN being key support regions for China's high export levels[5] - The gap between China's exports to the U.S. and U.S. imports from China widened, with a difference of $57.6 billion from January to July, a 19.7% increase from the previous year[22] Government Debt and Policy - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to alleviate fiscal pressure, with an estimated economic boost of around 0.3 percentage points from policy financial tools and debt limits[16] - The local government debt limit is projected to be 1.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with the possibility of utilizing national debt limits as well[16]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a strong rating compared to the broader market [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to stabilize the Producer Price Index (PPI) through coal prices, which are expected to experience fluctuations but trend upwards in the long term [5][6] - The coal industry is positioned in a transformative energy era, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5] - Coal remains a primary energy source, and despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting demand, the rigid supply and rising costs support coal price stability [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of October 17, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 748 CNY/ton, up 6.1% week-on-week [3] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.522 million tons, down 0.7 thousand tons week-on-week and down 3.9% year-on-year [3] - Power plant daily consumption has slightly increased, while coal inventory at Qinhuangdao has significantly decreased [3] Coking Coal - As of October 17, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1710 CNY/ton, up 4.9% week-on-week [4] - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 779 thousand tons, up 2.7 thousand tons week-on-week [4] - Coking coal prices remain stable, while steel prices have slightly decreased [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle are also recommended, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - Companies with global resource scarcity attributes and those involved in coal-electricity integration models are highlighted as potential investment targets [6]

Group 1 - In September, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The PPI's month-on-month performance showed two main characteristics: first, improvements in supply and demand structures led to price stabilization in certain industries, notably a 3.8% increase in coal processing prices and a 2.5% increase in coal mining and washing prices, both rising for two consecutive months [1] - Second, domestic oil-related industry prices fell due to external factors, with a 2.7% decrease in oil extraction prices, a 1.5% decrease in refined petroleum product manufacturing prices, a 0.6% decrease in organic chemical raw material manufacturing prices, and a 0.2% decrease in chemical fiber manufacturing prices [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the effects of macroeconomic policies have become evident, with some industry prices showing positive changes, particularly in coal processing, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, and battery manufacturing, where price declines narrowed by 8.3, 3, 2.4, and 0.5 percentage points respectively [2] - The upgrading of industrial structures and the release of consumer potential have contributed to price increases in related industries, such as a 1.2% rise in electronic specialty materials manufacturing prices [2]

Core Insights - The overall consumption market in China remained stable in September, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [2][5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and reaching the highest level in nearly 19 months [5][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][6] CPI Analysis - The CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.1% in September ended the previous month's stagnation, driven by a 0.7% rise in food prices, which contributed approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase [4][5] - Seasonal price increases were observed in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef, with price increases ranging from 0.9% to 6.1% [4] - Conversely, pork and aquatic product prices decreased by 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively, due to sufficient market supply [4] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% reflects a clearer upward trend, with various industries experiencing price increases or reduced declines, contributing to the PPI's stability [6][7] - Key industries such as coal processing, coal mining, and black metal smelting saw price increases of 3.8%, 2.5%, and 0.2%, respectively, for two consecutive months [6] - Input factors, particularly the decline in international oil prices, exerted downward pressure on domestic oil-related industries, but the overall impact on the PPI was limited [7] Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that the decline in pork prices will continue to weigh on the CPI in October, but increased travel during the National Day holiday is expected to boost service prices [3] - The annual CPI is projected to stabilize around 0%, while the PPI is anticipated to fluctuate at low levels, with a potential for positive growth by 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the impact of anti-involution on PPI is changing, with a noted improvement in PPI trends despite ongoing challenges in consumer demand [2][8] - In September, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, showing a slight recovery from August, but still fell short of market expectations [2][3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, but the decline was less severe than in August, indicating a potential stabilization in the PPI trend [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the CPI for food items dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 4.4%, primarily due to oversupply issues in the pork market [5][7] - Core CPI continues to rise, driven significantly by gold prices, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices increasing by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [2][5] - The report notes that while the PPI for durable consumer goods showed a decline of 0.4% month-on-month, the PPI for daily consumer goods increased by 0.4 percentage points compared to August, indicating some improvement [4][5] Group 3 - The report suggests that the weak demand in the consumer market is limiting the transmission of PPI changes to downstream living goods prices [4][8] - The analysis of high-frequency data indicates some stabilization in prices for certain construction industry goods, which may alleviate downward pressure on PPI [6][8] - The report emphasizes that the ongoing anti-involution policies are still in effect, but their impact on prices is becoming less pronounced, with a need to consider international trade events in future PPI trends [8]

Group 1: Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) for October 14, 2025, is 1.00, down 0.05 from October 7, 2025 [1][4] - The decline in the YHEI is attributed to a decrease in the "import dry bulk freight index," which fell 0.25 to 1.01 [1][4] - Post-National Day holiday, the "8-city subway flow index" decreased by 0.04 to 1.15, while the "30-city commodity housing sales index" increased by 0.08 to 0.41 [1][4] Group 2: Price Indices - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 1.0%, marking a continuous rise for five months [2][49] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 4.4%, with pork and fresh fruit prices dropping to 17.0% and 4.2%, respectively [2][49] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year in September, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][50] Group 3: Monetary Policy - As of October 14, 2025, the central bank's net fund injection was 765.8 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase operation of 1.3658 trillion yuan [6][7] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 26 basis points to 1.36%, while the seven-day repo rate fell by 17 basis points to 1.48% [11][12] Group 4: Industrial Production - As of October 14, 2025, the price of steel billets decreased by 0.68% week-on-week, while cement prices fell by 2.42% [29][31] - The operating rate of short-process steel mills dropped from 69.79% to 64.58%, while the operating rate of long-process steel mills increased from 50.00% to 51.67% [29] Group 5: Real Estate Market - After the National Day holiday, new housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 180.22%, 486.81%, and 221.87% respectively [42][43] - The transaction area for second-hand houses in first, second, and third-tier cities surged by 2267.37%, 723.57%, and 49589.55% respectively [45][46] Group 6: Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose by 1.23 points to 99.05, while the RMB to USD exchange rate fell by 225 basis points to 7.1411 [53][56] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) VIX index increased by 3.57 points to 20.81 [61]

Report Title - Low inflation is gradually improving - Commentary on September CPI and PPI [1][5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the overall price level stabilized. Core CPI continued to improve, supported by services and industrial consumer goods, while food and carry - over factors dragged down the overall CPI, with pork prices being the main drag. PPI was stable month - on - month, due to the obvious improvement in upstream industries and the low - base effect. The prices of upstream mining and raw material industries stabilized and rebounded first, while the prices of mid - and downstream industries were still under pressure. The sustainability of the rebound in industrial product prices still needs to be observed. In the fourth quarter, prices may continue to improve moderately, but the recovery strength is expected to be weak. It is expected that the bond market will perform better in Q4 than in Q3, and it is recommended to actively allocate 10 - year treasury bond active bonds when the yield is above 1.75% [2][8] Summary by Related Content Event Description - In September 2025, the domestic price level was generally stable. Core inflation continued to recover, and the performance of the upstream and mid - stream industries of PPI continued to diverge. CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, but core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. Month - on - month, CPI rose 0.1% from being flat last month, and PPI remained flat for two consecutive months, both basically in line with seasonal levels [5] Event Review - **Core CPI Improvement**: In September, core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month, returning to the "1 era" for the first time in nearly 19 months. The support came from two aspects: strong resilience in service consumption, with service prices rising 0.6% year - on - year (medical services and household services rising 1.9% and 1.6% respectively); the price of industrial consumer goods recovered driven by policies such as "trade - in" and "anti - involution", with the price of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rising 1.8% year - on - year, and categories such as household appliances and communication tools rising significantly. The increase in international gold prices also drove up the price of gold jewelry by 42.1% year - on - year [8] - **CPI Drag Factors**: In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct compared to last month. Food prices decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, affecting CPI to decrease by about 0.83 pct. Low pork prices were the core drag, with a year - on - year decline of 17.0%. The year - on - year decline of fresh vegetables and eggs exceeded 13%, but there was improvement month - on - month. Month - on - month, food prices rose seasonally by 0.7%, but the sufficient supply of pork and aquatic products drove prices down by 0.7% and 1.8% respectively. The carry - over factor was about - 0.8 pct, which was also the main reason why CPI year - on - year did not turn positive [8] - **PPI Stabilization**: In September, PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 pct, and remained flat month - on - month for two consecutive months. The improvement in production material prices was the core driver, with prices in industries such as coal processing, coal mining and washing, and ferrous metal smelting rising by 3.8%, 2.5%, and 0.2% respectively month - on - month, and having maintained growth for two consecutive months. However, the prices of consumer goods were still weak, with the price of durable consumer goods decreasing by 3.9% year - on - year, in contrast to the recovery of industrial products in CPI. Input factors dragged down the prices of petroleum - related industries [8] - **Industry Price Differentiation**: The prices of upstream mining and raw material industries stabilized and rebounded first, while the prices of mid - and downstream industries were still under pressure, indicating that the foundation for demand recovery was not solid, and the sustainability of the rebound in industrial product prices still needed to be observed. Mid - and downstream manufacturing industries showed weakness, with negative month - on - month growth in industries such as the automobile manufacturing, rubber and plastic products, and pharmaceutical manufacturing industries [8] - **Outlook**: The continuous recovery of core CPI and the pull of new price - increasing factors may indicate certain resilience in domestic demand. The focus in the future is whether the recovery of core inflation can continue and whether the improvement in upstream prices can be smoothly transmitted to the mid - and downstream, driving the overall price level to rise moderately. In the fourth quarter, prices may continue to improve moderately, supported by the weakening of the carry - over factor and the stabilization of some upstream prices driven by policies such as capacity governance, but the recovery strength is expected to be weak [8]

Core Insights - The overall price trend shows marginal improvement in September, with CPI year-on-year rising from -0.4% to -0.3%, while core CPI increased to 1% [2][12] - The GDP deflator index for Q3 is expected to improve from -1.2% to -0.9%, supporting nominal growth stabilization [2][9] - Core CPI's rise is primarily driven by core goods, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 1.8% in September, the highest since 2021 [4][13] CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year decline of 0.3% is influenced by food prices, which worsened from -4.3% to -4.4%, while energy prices improved from -3.1% to -2.7% [19][22] - Core CPI rose to 1.0%, marking five consecutive months of increase, with core goods contributing significantly to this rise [19][20] - Key contributors to core CPI include household appliances (up 5.5%), gold jewelry (up 42.1%), and communication tools (up 1.5%) [19][20] PPI Analysis - PPI remained flat month-on-month after eight months of decline, with a year-on-year decrease narrowing from -2.9% to -2.3% [28][31] - The stabilization in PPI is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain sectors, particularly coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries [28][32] - Input factors have led to price declines in oil-related sectors, while midstream manufacturing sectors like computer communication and automotive manufacturing continue to show weakness [31][32] Implications and Insights - The consumer goods replacement policy has positively impacted retail consumption and price recovery, although recent funding for this policy is depleting [5][16] - Broader consumer price trends indicate that the CPI may not fully reflect the underlying strength in various sectors, suggesting ongoing economic recovery [5][16] - The recovery of rental prices is crucial for the mid-term upward adjustment of core CPI, given its significant weight in the index [6][16]